Jan 30th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Doncaster

2:40
Fern Hill 3 units win 10/1

3:15
Yorkhill 5 units win 22/1
Boldmere 2 units win 10/1


Best bets

Doncaster

3:15
Yorkhill 0.5pt win 22/1

What a frustrating day !

Firstly, the weather robbed us of the Cheltenham trials meeting - leaving just a couple of races of interest, at Doncaster.
With one of those looking a minefield, I focused on the Sky bet chase - and thought I’d found a decent bet in the race, in the shape of Yorkhill.
However, he knocked a joint this morning and was declared a NR moments after I’d issued the suggested bets !

As a result, there are no Best bets on the day - and just a couple of small ones for the Matrix.

Here’s the rationale…


Doncaster

Clearly, Shishkin should win the 1:30.
It appears to be simply a case of him jumping round and handling the ground.
If he fails on either score, then Cheddleton should be the one to take advantage.
He can be backed at 14 on the exchanges, which is probably a fair enough price…

If Miranda had been 7/2 this morning, I would have been tempted to put her up in the 2:05.
That said, I was kind of glad she wasn’t as I wouldn’t have felt comfortable doing so !
My head says she has a good chance - backed up by the figures.
However, I have concerns about her ability to handle the ground/track.
I’ve also got concerns about the 2 other markets leaders - but can’t really take to any of the outsiders.
On balance, it has to be a watching race…

The 2:40 looks very open.
The winner is likely to produce a personal best - but all of the runners have the potential to do just that.
I think Fern Hill is the one with the greatest scope - and at 10/1, he’s worth a small play on the Matrix.
That said, I’ll be looking to cover a few of the other runners during the day, if/when their price drifts…
Pats Fancy and Ashtown Lad are of particular interest - if I can get a decent price (I’m targeting 9 on the former and 10.5 on the latter)

The Sky bet chase (3:15) has already been a very frustrating race !
I missed the early price on Musical Slave; and whilst I got it on Yorkhill, he was subsequently taken out of the race.
I may well have switched allegiance to Boldmere - but his price also crashed this morning (though I did manage to suggest him for the Matrix before it went completely).
I would be interested in Musical Slave at 6/1+ (and that might happen); whilst Cap du Nord, Canelo and One for the Team, could also become interesting, if their prices drift sufficiently.
I’ll look at the race again later, on the Live thread…

Jan 30th - Preview for Doncaster

 The weather has played havoc with the racing fixtures since Christmas - and unfortunately it shows little sign of relenting…

Once again, the majority of the turf fixtures scheduled for this week have been abandoned - and a significant blow was struck earlier today, when Cheltenham’s trials day joined the list.

Like the New Years day fixture, it has been lost to rain and as a result, no racing will be taking place at Cheltenham between mid December and mid March.
That’s quite something, for the home of NH…

As a consequence, we are left with just the one meeting of interest tomorrow - at Doncaster.

They raced at the course this afternoon, and my feeling was that the ground was riding ‘soft’. With no significant rain forecast, I would expect it to be the same tomorrow afternoon…

In terms of the action on offer, then it’s not Cheltenham !
The Sky bet chase has drawn a decent field - as has the River Don novice hurdle - but they are only those 2 races, with the right shape and of the right standard, for me to consider suggesting bets.
Suffice to say, it will be another relatively quiet day…


Doncaster

1:30

It’s a real coup for Doncaster, that Shishkin will be having his final outing before the Cheltenham festival, at the track.
He will have been sent there in the expectation of getting decent ground - but connections may end up a little disappointed !
That said, everything is relative - and soft ground at Doncaster is probably as quick as you are going to get anywhere, at the moment.
He either runs there - or goes to Cheltenham with no run…
I’d expect his class to see him through - though he does face at least a couple of decent opponents.
Cheddleton really impressed me, when beating Cornerstone Lad at Haydock, last month.
That race was run in desperate conditions - so the softer the ground, the better, for him…
On official ratings, he is 13lb inferior to Shishkin - but he receives 5lb from him tomorrow.
That shouldn’t be enough for him to beat the favourite - but I could certainly see him giving Shishkin a race.
If Colin Tizzards stable were in any kind of form, I could also see Eldorado Allen running well.
He certainly ran well at Cheltenham in November, when taking advantage of Gumballs fall.
However, he then disappointed at Sandown in December.
Based on that run, he has little chance - and the Tizzard stable remains in the doldrums.
It’s hard to make much of a case for Fast Buck; whilst Est Illic should be outclassed…
In short, Shishkin is highly likely to win - provided his jumping holds up and he handles the ground.
If the ground proves too much for him, then Cheddleton is by far the most likely to take advantage.

2:05

There are only 6 declared runners for this - but things are pretty tight at the head of the betting, between 3 of them…
Floressa and Maries Rock clashed at Newbury in November.
Both were making their seasonal debuts and Maries Rock was made a short priced favourite to win.
However, it was Floressa who came home in front, with Maries Rock unplaced.
Maries Rock will be 2lb better off tomorrow - but I can’t see that making a lot of difference.
What might make a difference, is much softer ground - and the application of a hood and tongue tie to Maries Rock.
The hood in particular, looks a shrewd addition for a horse who tends to race freely.
Both horses are trained by NIcky Henderson and it looks significant that said stable jockey Nico de Boinville, has switched from Maries Rock to Floressa.
However, on ratings, neither one should beat the Paul Nichols trained Miranda.
She has the same official mark as Floressa - but will receive 4lb. Whilst she will receive 2lb from Maries Rock, despite being rated 2lb superior.
The worry with Miranda is soft ground. She has previously won on it - but has tended to run better on a quicker surface…
Irish Roe looks the best of the 3 outsiders - though she’s another who would prefer quicker ground…
It was quicker when she ran in this race 12 months ago - and split Lady Buttons and Floressa.
She subsequently tested positive for a banned substance and was disqualified - however based on that run, she is quite capable of being in the mix.

2:40

Conditions races don’t tend to be much more open than this one !
There are 13 runners - and they can each be given a chance.
On official ratings, they are very closely matched - and they all have plenty of scope for improvement.
It really is a very hard to even narrow down the field to a short list…

That said, the key piece of form appears to be the novice hurdle run at the December Cheltenham meeting.
Ashtown Lad was sent off a 6/4 fav for that race - but was ran disappointingly and only managed to finished fifth.
Ask a Honey Bee, did a fair bit better, and managed to finish third: but Pats Fancy did best of all, finishing runner up - and that was despite being completely unfancied in the betting.
It’s hard to be adamant about which one of the 3 will come out on top tomorrow, as there wasn’t much between Pats Fancy and Ask a Honey Bee, whilst Ashtown Lad clearly ran below form…
To add to the puzzle, Ask a Honey Bee finished runner up to Bobhopeorohope at Exeter in November - and it’s not easy to figure out which of them is the better horse…
Aska Honey Bee is 6lb better off tomorrow for a 2 length beating - but Bobhopeornohope seemed to win with a bit in hand…
Emir Sacree has no connection to that form line, having unexpectedly taken an  Ascot handicap, on his UK debut.
It’s very hard form to assess in the context of this race - but it’s fair to assume that  he will have improved for the experience…
All of the others can be given at least half a chance, with Exploiteur, Fern Hill and The Cob looking the most interesting.

3:15

This is the main race on the card - and I did consider getting involved with it for the ante-post thread on the forum.
The horse I considered putting up was Musical Slave - and he was a 14/1 shot on Monday.
However, I was concerned that he might not run (as he is owned by JP McManus, who also owns Canelo - and that one was the second favourite).
Roll on a few days, and Musical Slave is now 4/1 - and has over-taken Canelo in the betting !
Suffice to say, I think that ship has sailed…
In fairness, I do still think that Musical Slave has a good chance - but I think he is now too short in the betting.
I also think that Cap du Nord is too short in the betting.
He will be running off a mark 16lb higher than when he won for us at Newbury in November - and whilst that increase is justified, he is already quite exposed.
He is particularly popular in the betting because the form of his last run has been boosted twice, by victories for both the race winner: Royal Pagaile - and the third placed Double Shuffle.
That said, my issue with Cap du Nord, more concerns the ground and the trip, than it does his handicap mark…
Canelo finished second to Cap du Nord at Newbury and must have a fair chance of reversing the form on 6lb better terms.
His subsequent win at Wetherby showed by can cope with 3 miles in soft ground and his credentials look very solid.
That said, a mark of 148 does look quite high…
The novice, One for the Team, could easily be better than his current mark of 140.
I would expect him to be well suited by the track and trip - and his jumping appears sound. However, soft ground would be a worry for him…
Of the outsiders, then Boldmere looks quite interesting, back at the scene of his win last December.
He would have followed that up by winning a grade 2 race at Wetherby - but he fell at the last, when clear.
3 subsequent disappointing runs, have seen him fall out of favour - but he’s still a relatively young horse and his mark has been dropped a few pounds.
Yorkhill isn’t a young horse - but he used to be a very talented one.
In his younger days, he won 3 grade 1s - including 2 at the Cheltenham festival.
Last season, he appeared to have gone at the game, but a switch to Sandy Thompson, seems to have rekindled the fire.
He was a gutsy winner of the Rehearsal chase at Newcastle last time - and a 5lb rating rise means that’s he’s now rated 147. However, at his peak he was rated 164 - so he could still have plenty in hand of his mark…

Review of the day - Jan 28th

 Class Conti ran a huge race at Gowran this afternoon - but ultimately had to play third fiddle to a pair of Gordon Elliott trained novices…

It was difficult to not feel a little hard done by, as the first and second were both unexposed and received weight from Class Conti.

I was fully aware of their potential danger - but they had both been well found in the market, so with plenty to prove, I didn’t feel they represented value bets.

I felt that Class Conti represented a value bet - and I was spot on.
He travelled smoothly through the race - jumping economically - and looked to have every chance turning in.

However, it was at that point that Jack Kennedy asked Coco Beach - and he proved himself a very well handicapped horse.

Class Conti looked like finishing second - but he was run out of that position close home, by Run While Fred.

I take some consolation from the fact that I read the race very well - and put us on the best of the exposed horses in the race - but it is only consolation.

Ofcourse, with hindsight should have suggested him EW - and in truth, I did consider that option.
However, I know that some of your don’t like EW (I’m not a fan) - and some of you would struggle place such bets - so I resisted.

Normally, I use the Matrix to provide cover for the main bet - but that wasn’t an option today (because of poor prices). In the circumstances, EW would probably have been a reasonable call…

C’est la vie !

The Galmoy hurdle was the only other race of interest on the day.
I thought Great White Shark would take a deal of beating if she (note deliberate mistake from the preview !) handled the ground and was fully tuned.
I suspect she didn’t handle the ground (which was absolutely desperate) as she was beaten turning in.
I did hope that might leave the way open for Diol Ker - but he was run out of things by Sam Profile.
It was a huge effort from the winner on his first run over hurdles for nearly 2 years. He fully deserves to take his chance in the Stayers hurdle at Cheltenham.

TVB

Jan 28th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

There is little liquidity on the exchanges - but I don't think that will change until near the off.
20/1 is a fair price (it's available with most of the bookmakers), so if you show patience, you should achieve it (or even better !)

Matrix bets

Gowran Park

3:25
Class Conti 5 units win 20/1


Best bets

Gowran Park

3:25
Class Conti 0.5pt win 20/1

I’m not sure how much difference it made, waiting until 10:00 before issuing todays bet…

From what I could see, there was minimal money matched on BF between 9:00 and 10:00 (around £5K) - and few price changes with the bookmakers.

Also when I did issue, the price of Class Conti still crashed !

I guess things may have been worse if I’d issued earlier - though I suspect it wouldn’t have made a huge amount of difference…

As expected, I found the bookmaker over-round on the race, particularly irritating.
I would have liked to cover a couple of ‘dangers’ via the Matrix - but horses I could back at double figures on the exchanges, were 7/1 and 8/1 with the bookmakers.

There was no margin in those prices - so I didn’t suggest covering them.
I’ll mention the horses in question, in the detail below, just in case any of you want to cover on them, unofficially…


Gowran Park

In the 2:40 race, Great White Shark has been backed in to 9/4 this morning, which is closer to the price I expected.
He’s very much the one to beat - provided he’s primed to go and handles the heavy ground.  
If he comes up short, for whatever reason, then it’s a hard race to call.
Diol Ker is the one that interests me most of the rest - but there’s quite a lot of guesswork required with him,…

I do think that Class Conti is over-priced in the Thystes (3:25) - even with the ridiculous over-round !
He was second in the race last year - behind a classy winner - and whilst he is 2lb higher today, I can’t see that making much difference.
He’s shown nothing in 2 runs this season - but that’s consistent with Willie Mullins 'modus operandi', when he is targeting a race (he’s happy to give them 2 runs to get fully fit).
The horse has only run 7 times for Mullins, so retains potential; whilst the fitting of first time cheek pieces is a very interesting move.
I also like the fact it was bought by Munir and Souede over the summer.
I suspect they bought it to target it at a race - and I’m hoping it is this one !
In terms of dangers, then I have covered on Brahma Bull and Ten Ten, at 10 & 12 respectively, on the exchanges.
I’ll also back Smoking Gun a at 11 - as Gigginstown have withdrawn Dounikos, to get him a run.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - and I may pick them off to small stakes, on the exchanges, if the prices get too big.
All this said, I do like Class Conti - at 20/1 he’s a very good bet.

Jan 28th - Preview for Gowran Park

 Aside from Cheltenham, Aintree & the Christmas period, there are very few big races run on a Thursday.

In fact, the Thystes chase is the only one I can think of - and certainly the only one I cover during my season.

Known as ‘The race that stops a county’, that should be a bit easier to achieve this year, as I suspect that few of the locals will be doing much regardless !

Tomorrows renewal is up to scratch: as is the main supporting event, the Galmoy hurdle.

The races on the under-card aren’t quite so inspiring - but at least there are a couple of contests in which I might be able to find a midweek bet (which is a rare event !).

That said, I still don’t expect the early markets to be strong.
If I can find any bets, then I’ll look to issue after 10:00 - however, if the markets are still fragile at that point, I’ll possibly delay.

The other thing to note is the massive over-round that the bookmakers tend to apply to Irish racing.
All of the bookmakers have now priced up the Thystes - and there is still a 40% over-round on best prices !

It’ll be no better in the morning - so please, don’t be rushing to take a price.
Most of the runners will be available at better prices on the exchanges, at some point prior to the off - many of them, at much better prices !


Gowran Park

2:20

I expected Great White Shark to be installed quite a short price favourite for this…
He was an impressive winner of the Cesarewich at Newmarket, on his most recent outing in October, when he stayed on well to justify favouritism.
Prior to that, he had won over hurdles at the Galway festival - a win which resulted in his rating being raised to 146.
That leaves him a few pounds shy of some of his opponents tomorrow - however the conditions of the race mean that he receives weight from all bar one of the runners and on adjusted ratings, he is the best treated horse in the race.
Add in top class connections - and I thought you’d be looking at nearer 2/1, than the 3/1 on offer…
In fairness, heavy ground and a 4 month absence are worries - and it is possible that the race could be used as a prep for bigger targets.
I suspect the betting will be revealing - but if he is well supported, I would expect him to win.
In terms of his rivals, then most of them can be given at least half a chance.
In addition to the favourite, Willie Mullins also saddles Bacardys, Burrow Saint and Scarpeta.
Cases can be made for all 3 - though the fact that Paul Townend rides Great White Shark, does suggest he is the main hope of the stable.
Noel Meade saddles a couple of interesting runners in the shape of Sixshooter and Diol Ker.
I expected Sixshooter to be the more fancied (I thought he would be second favourite) - however Sean Flanagan rides Diol Ker.
I read that as meaning he is the stable number one - and it’s interesting to note that he beat Monkfish over hurdles last season. He also wears first time cheek pieces tomorrow, having hurdled sloppily last time.
Again, if he’s supported in the market, then a definite case can be made…
Darasso and Kilfenora both represent JP McManus - with the former having finished second in the race last year.
I don’t think either will be quite good to win - even though they could run well.
Sams Profile is the final one worthy of mention.
He was a top class novice hurdler a couple of seasons back - but was then absent, until returning over fences this autumn.
He showed promise in a couple of novice races - but as he didn’t win either, it’s not too surprising to see connections sending him back over hurdles, thereby retaining his novice status over the bigger obstacles for next season.
It would be a big ask for him to take a race like this on his first run back over hurdles - but it’s not completely impossible…
In short, this looks a race where the favourite is likely to be very hard to beat provided he is ready to do himself justice…
Unfortunately we are only likely to know whether that’s the case, close to the off…

3:25

The Thystes has the usual make up of runners for a big field handicap in Ireland…
A third of the field are trained by Willie Mullins; a third by Gordon Elliott and a third by ‘others’ !
It’s a race that Mullins tends to do particularly well in, and he has trained the winner of 5 of the past 10 renewals.
By contrast, Elliott has only trained a single winner over the same period…

The Mullins team is headed by Acapella Bourgeois, the mount of Paul Townend.
He finished sixth in the race 12 months ago - and off a 4lb higher mark, there is no obvious reason why he should do any better tomorrow.
That said, he was let down by his jumping in last seasons race - and he does absolutely love, heavy ground (which he should get) - so he’s not easy to dismiss.
In truth, he shouldn’t be able to beat stablemate Class Conti, based on last years run.
That one finished second in the race, nearly 10 lengths in front of Acapella - and is 2lb better off at the weights,
He’s shown nothing in 2 runs this season - but may have been targeted at this race for his new owners and wears cheek pieces for the first time.
Brahma Bull is another very interesting runner for Mullins.
He’s an unexposed 10 year old, who has been running in graded company.
A rating of 151 looks quite high - but a 7 length second to Minella Indo, suggests he deserves it !
Cabaret Queen and Saturnas complete the Mullins team - and whilst neither looks to have an outstanding chance, they couldn’t be completely ruled out.
It’s a little easier to rule out a few of the Elliott contenders - and if he does train the winner, it’s likely to be in the shape of either Coko Beach or Run Wild Fred.
Both are still novices and consequently very tricky to get a proper handle on…
Of the others, then Spyglass Hill is quite interesting for Henry de Bromhead - though he does look to have been priced up on the back of his defeat of Native Milan, last February.
That one went on to win at the Cheltenham festival - though I suspect he improved, when doing that.
Discordantly is quite interesting for Jessie Harrington.
He was a good winner at Galway in October - though the 10lb rise he got for that win, does seem to have been a bit too much.
He ran quite well in the Troytown and in the Paddy Power chase - and I could see him doing the same again tomorrow, without being quite good enough to win.
I could give both Dunvegan and Ten Ten chances - however, there are doubts over their stamina.
I made Ten Ten a Best bet last time, when he ran in the Paddy Power chase, as I thought he would benefit from the step up in trip. However, that didn’t seem to be the case (he finished weakly).
Maybe he can be given a second chance, as he was very well supported for that race (sent off second fav).
Dunvegan looks more of a questionable stayer to me - though if his stamina does hold out, then he is handicapped to be in the mix.

Review of the day - Jan 23rd

 It ended up being a quieter day than I expected, with just a couple of Best bets and a few supporting ones, for the Matrix. 

As a consequence, there was never likely to be high drama - and I’m happy enough that the day ended with a modest profit.

That was thanks for Enqarde, who was a game winner at Ascot.
Always close up behind the favourite - he travelled quite well, even if his jumping was occasionally a bit too close to the mark !

He also showed a tendency to jump slightly to his left, so in the circumstances, he did well to win.

He can expect about a 6lb rise for his efforts - but he has a progressive profile.
Back on a left hand course - and in a suitable grade - I suspect he will be more than capable of following up…

Arrivederci was the other Best bet on the day - and it can be argued that he was a little unlucky not also to collect…

He wasn’t unlucky in conventional terms (ie. luck in running etc.) - he was unlucky to bump into an unexposed horse who had about a stone in hand of his mark !

In fairness, I did identify Craigneiche as a potential danger - but he was one of four unexposed horses who might have been capable of stepping up today.  
I covered a couple of them via the Matrix - but I didn’t cover him and Sods Law did the rest !

As for Arrivederci: he ran a really good race - bouncing back from a relatively poor run last time at Ascot.
He is likely to get a couple of pounds for his efforts - and that won’t make it easy for him to go one better next time.

In terms of bets, then there was only one other one on the day.
That was Crievehill at Haydock, who I covered in the Matrix.
I was fearful that the Haydock ground might prove to be a bit too soft for him - and I suspect that was how it worked out.

He ran a fair race - but was absolutely no match for Royal Pagaille.
The winner looked like a graded horse running in a handicap (which is probably what he is !) - and it will be interesting to see how far he can go.
All I would say, is that with Sam Brown a non runner and Sams Adventure a mid-race faller, he was left with absolutely nothing to beat.

Suffice to say, I’ll reserve judgement on him until I’ve seen him in a stronger race.

As for Crievehill, he will be dropped a few more pounds and could certainly be of interest in a couple of months time, on better ground.

In the days other races: Roksana and Yala Enki were both odds on winners - but Buveur Dair was a beaten favourite, on his return to action.
That wasn’t really a huge shock - though I would have expected Ballyandy to be the one to capitalise, if he under-performed.
Instead it was Navajo Pass, who got an uncontested lead - and made the most of an inspired ride from Sean Quinlan.
Over at Ascot, Dashel Draher was a very game winner of the big handicap chase.
He was held by Good boy Bobby on Haydock form, so I could never have been with him.
Whilst First Flow put in an equally stirring effort to beat Politologue in the Clarence House chase.
I did feel the favourite was vulnerable - but thought it would be either Waiting Patiently or Defi du Seuil who would beat him.
However, they were both held up off the pace and never able to get to the leaders.
First Flow on the other hand, sat just behind Politilogue early; challenged at half way - and then proved the stronger up the straight.
It was a mighty effort from a fast improving horse.

TVB.

Jan 23rd - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Ascot

1:50
Arrivederci 5 units win 15/2
Paddys Motorbike 3 units win 11/2
Janika 2 units win 11/2

2:25
Enqarde 5 units win 9/2
Flintham 2 units win 25/1

Haydock

2:40
Crievehill 2 units win 14/1


Best bets


Ascot

1:50
Arrivederci 0.5pt win 15/2

2:25
Enqarde 0.5pt win 9/2
  

I had quite high hopes for today, when the final declarations were released on Thursday - but things haven’t worked out as I wished…

Too many of the races are uncompetitive.
I could look to take on strong favourites, such as Yala Enki, Buveur Dair or Rokasana, but I’d be guessing/hoping.

By contrast, most of the races I feel I should to get involved with, are too competitive - bearing in mind the uncertainty concerning the state of the ground.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up suggesting far less bets than I expected.

I feel it’s the right thing to do: the last few weeks have been very quiet - but that’s just the way it is, forcing things rarely helps…

Anyway, they are my general reasons for the limited suggestions - here’s my more detailed thinking, on a race by race basis…


Ascot

Roksana should win the 1:15 - but she’s not a betting proposition at 4/7 in a race which could get tactical.
Magic of Light is the only realistic alternative - but I don’t she’s worth a risk at 7/2.

The 1:50 is a bit of a minefield, but I think Arrivederci is worth a small risk.
Stepping back up in trip, it can be argued that he is the form choice - whilst the support he received in a strong race last time, suggests he is considered well handicapped.
Dangers abound, with a host of unexposed horses in opposition.
This is where the Matrix should help, as I can cover a few of them, just in case.
However, the 2 I like most - Paddy Motorbike and Janika - have both been well backed.
I might have suggested the former as a Best bet - but his price has halved from yesterday.
That said, I still think they are both worth having on side - but mainly to cover stakes on Arrivederci.

Enqarde is my main hope of the day, in the 2:25.
He opened at 9/1 yesterday - and I was optimistic that he might have gone under the radar.
However, he’s been very well backed and the 9/2 this morning, is a border line price.
I do think he’s got a good chance, as he’s got scope for improvement and is running against mainly exposed types - however, he is no certainty !
I ignored Flintham when I was writing the preview - as he’s been off the course for 3 years.
However, he is ridiculously well handicapped, if retaining any of his old ability.
He’s the right sort to be covering, via the Matrix…

I like Good Boy Bobby most in the 3:00 - but he’s not bomb proof and faces a number of dangerous opponents.
I’d be prepared to support him at a price (6/1+) - but not at 9/2.
It’s a similar story with Espoir de Guye. He could be of interest - but I do have some worries about him and 6/1 is too short (I’d want 8/1)

If either Waiting Patiently or Defi du Seuil weren’t running in the 3:35, I’d be happy to side with the other one.
Certainly, I wouldn’t take much persuading to oppose Politologue - but I’d struggle to choose between the 2 main options.
I’d have a slight preference for Waiting Patiently - but I can’t see much in his price (11/4).
That’s in part, because I couldn’t completely dismiss the next 3 in the betting.
On balance therefore, it has to be a watching race…

Haydock

I can only imagine what the ground will be like at Haydock.
The meeting was nearly lost to rain on Thursday - but since then, frost covers have been in place !
I really don’t know how that will work out: the ground could be desperate - or it could be better than expected.
It would be hard to get heavily involved, without first watching a race or two…

Nada to Prada is the one of most interest in the 1:30, at around 11/2.
However, there is too much guesswork required (and not just with regard to the going).

I had earmarked Sam Brown as a bet in the 2:40 - though his price had contracted to the point where I might have decided against.
However, he was withdrawn this morning (due to stiffness) - so I needed to re-look at the race.
I think Royal Pagaille is too short at 6/4 - the issue is finding one to oppose him with.
On decent ground I’d be keen on Crievehill - but he doesn’t want it too soft.
I therefore don’t feel I can make him a Best bet - though I am prepared to take a small risk with the Matrix.
I should have a stronger view on his chance this afternoon, and I’ll express it on the Live thread…

I could have taken a chance and opposed Buveur Dair in the 3:15 - but it would have been complete guesswork.
The fact is, if he’s anywhere near his best - and provided he handles the conditions - he wins.
If he’s not, then Ballyandy should win - though Navajo Pass is capable of causing a surprise, should he happen to get the run of the race.
How you price up all of that, is beyond me !

Taunton

Again, with a straight bat, Yala Enki wins the 2:05.
However, there is a chance he could still be feeling a tough race at Chepstow, just 2 weeks ago.
If that’s the case, then If the Cap Fits should take advantage - provided his jumping holds up…  
Again, I’ve no idea how you can price up such imponderables - so the race has to be swerved, from a betting perspective.  

Jan 23rd - Preview for Ascot, Haydock & Taunton

 3 of tomorrows 4 planned meetings, will need to pass early morning inspections, due to the threat of frost. 

Thankfully, the meeting at Ascot appears to be in no danger - and it is the best card, by some margin.

As a consequence, my preview for tomorrow will focus on the action there - though I will also cover the televised races from both Haydock and Taunton.


Ascot

1:15

The first televised race is the least attractive, from a betting perspective.

It looks to be a virtual match, between Roksana and Magic of Light - though there’s a slight chance that Eglantine du Seuil could spoil the party…
Of the big 2, then Roksana very much looks the one to beat.
She’s put in 2 really big efforts this season: winning first time out at Wetherby; and then finishing third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the ‘Long Walk’ at Ascot.
That’s top class staying form - and fully justifies her current official rating of 153.
There’s no obvious reason why she won’t run to that level tomorrow - and if she does, she’s unlikely to be beaten.
Magic of Light has won the past 2 runnings of this race - but has never previously faced an opponent of Roksana’s quality.
On official ratings, she is 4lb inferior to Roksana - and I suspect she is slightly flattered by that.
The fact she likes to front run, means there is always a chance that she could steal the race - but Harry Skelton is a very shrewd jockey and I’ll be amazed if Roksana finds herself out of her ground.
On official ratings, Eglatine du Seuil should be more of a threat to Roksana than Magic of Light.
She is rated 7lb inferior to the favourite - but the penalty structure of the race, means that she receives 6lb.
In theory that should make things very interesting - however Eglatine hasn’t fully justified her current rating and is also unproven over tomorrows trip.
If she happened to improve for the increased distance, then she would be a big danger - but I suspect that Roksana will come home in front.

1:50

This is the first of 3 really competitive handicaps on the card.
I did initially think that I might have an angle into it - but I’m now not quite so sure !

Lightly Squeezed has been installed the early favourite on the back of a fine third last time, in a hot Ascot handicap, just before Christmas.
That is certainly strong form - however he has been raised 3lb for the run and it remains to be seen whether he will appreciate stepping up in trip by half a mile.
At the prices, I was prepared to oppose him…
Arrivederci was sent off favourite for the Ascot race but ran disappointingly.
However, his best form previously had been over a longer trip - so there is a chance the bare 2 miles didn’t suit him.
He’s back up to 2m4f tomorrow - and that should suit him better.
The form of his 2 runs earlier in the season is strong - and if he can recapture that level, I would make him the form pick.
However, there are a few potential flies in the ointment !
Janika is the first - running over hurdles for the first time in the UK.
His hurdles mark is 13lb lower than his chase mark - so he is potentially very well handicapped. He also won first time out last season, so has proven he can go well fresh.
If connections have targeted him at the race (as opposed to using it to get him fit for a return to chasing), then he will probably win…
Danny Kirwan is the next.
He will be having his first run in a handicap, having run well in a number of novice races.
He has the kind of profile you normally look for in these kind of races - and top connections to boot.
Paddys Motorbike is the third.
Like Danny Kirwan, he will be having his first run in a handicap - and doesn’t appear badly treated, based both on his runs in novice events and his form on the flat.
He’s also a prominent racer, which tends to be advantageous in big field handicaps.
Craigneiche is the final ‘dark one’.
Again, he is a novice stepping into a handicap for the first time - and with only 2 prior runs under his belt, is very hard to quantify.
However, it’s interesting that he is trained by Nicky Henderson - not someone who tends to over-face his horses.
With all 4, the market close to the off, is likely to be prophetic…
Of the others, then Kateson can be given a definite chance on his last time out win at Aintree.
That is strong form - and a 5lb rise in the ratings, doesn’t look overly harsh.
I’d struggle to make much of a case for the remaining 5 - but my ‘short’ list is still a bit longer than I’d like !

2:25

This race isn’t actually on terrestrial TV - which is a bit of a shame, as it’s a very decent looking contest.

De Forgotten One has been installed favourite.
He was backed into favouritism on his penultimate run in the cross country race at the Cheltenham December meeting.
He ran well to finish third in that race - and then went 2 places better when winning on his most recent outing at Catterick.
He was quite impressive that day - but it was a relatively poor race and he runs off a mark 10lb higher tomorrow.
Whether he will be capable of defying the new mark, only time will tell…
It’s a similar story with both Cobolobo and Crossley Tender.
They were both comfortable winners of fair races at Exeter on their most recent outings - but will face tougher opposition tomorrow, off higher handicap marks.
The actually met in November, again at Exeter, and whilst Crossley Tender came out on top that day, Cobolobo should reverse the form tomorrow, as he is 7lb better off for a beating of just under 2 lengths.
I made Yalltari a Best bet last time, when he finished fourth at Chepstow.
I was a little disappointed with him that day, as he appeared to have no excuses - and even off a 2lb lower mark tomorrow, I wouldn’t be in a particular rush to back him…
Enqard takes drop in class tomorrow, after his last time out run in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock.
He unseated his rider just after half way, that day - but still appeared to be going well at the time.
That was his first run over fences in the UK - but he has plenty of chasing experience, in his native France.
His jumping is a slight worry, but if he has learnt from his mistake, then I suspect he is handicapped to run a very big race.
Favourite Bucks is also handicapped to run a big race - which is precisely what he did last time, over tomorrows course and distance.
Very soft ground won’t suit him - but if the going isn’t too bad, then he should go very close.

3:00

A little like the 1:50 race, this looks a very tough one to call…

Bennys King and Good Boy Bobby are disputing favouritism - and I much prefer the chance of the latter.
In fact, it’s not hard to argue that he is a potentially well handicapped horse - who should have near ideal conditions.
He’s run 7 times over fences - and performed with credit on each occasion.
Of his form last season, then a narrow defeat by Mister Fisher, when attempting to concede 5lb, reads particularly well; whilst his second to Master Tommytucker, on his penultimate outing at Haydock, also now looks very strong, as the winner was  subsequently successful in grade 2 company - and is now rated 159.
Good Boy Bobby runs off a mark of 144 tomorrow - and I wouldn’t be surprised if that under-rates him by 5 or 6lb (which is likely to be sufficient for him to win).
Bennys King on the other hand, looks handicapped to the hilt.
He was narrowly beaten in this race last year, and should have no chance of reversing the form with the winner, Domain de L’isle, on 9lb worse terms.
In fact, Domain De L’ilse should really be of major interest - however he’s been out of form since that run, and with no glaringly obvious reason why he should return to form tomorrow, it would require a bit of an act of faith to support him…  
Dashel Drasher finished well behind Good Boy Bobby at Haydock - and will have his work cut out to reverse the form on 8lb worse terms.
As a consequence, Espoir de Guye looks the main danger to Good Boy Bobby.
He won over tomorrows course and distance, in November - and whilst he disappointed last time, that was over 3 furlongs further.
Back down in trip - and off a mark just 5lb higher, I would expect him to run very well.
That said, his mark of 149 looks a quite high in absolute terms.
Of the outsiders, then both Jerrysback and Colorado Doc are of some interest.
The former has twice run well over the course - and looks fairly handicapped.
It’s not easy to get a handle on Colorado Doc - but he looked good when winning at Plumpton in February and has plenty of PTP experience to call on.

3:35

This really is a fascinating race - though I’m not sure I’ll be brave enough to have a go at it !

In a way, it can be argued that I should - as I definitely think Politolgue is beatable.
He’s an admirable horse - and justifiably favourite based on recent form.
However, he isn’t from the very top drawer - and that makes him vulnerable to both Waiting Patiently and Defi du Seuil.
It’s not hard to argue that both of them have more natural ability than Politologue - they just aren't as consistent.
Defi du Seuil won this race 12 months ago, when getting the better of Un De Sceaux.
He’d beaten the same horse when winning the Tingle Creek on his previous outing - a race in which Waiting Patiently finished third and Politologue, fifth.
On that form Defi should be favourite for tomorrows race - but 2 subsequent poor runs, mean that he has significant questions to answer.
Waiting Patiently has less questions to answer, following his excellent second to Frodon in last months King George.
Based on that run, I make him the most likely winner of tomorrows race - though I wouldn’t be prepared to pull the trigger, at less than 3/1…
In truth, I’m not completely convinced that this is just a 3 horse race (even if that’s what the official ratings claim !)
Fanion D’estruval, First Flow and Duc des Genievres may all be rated at least 7lb inferior to the ‘big 3’ - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one of them in the shake up.
Duc de Genievres is the one most likely to run his race - and could certainly get placed. However, it’s unlikely that he has quite enough class to win.
Fanion D’estruval will need to show massive improvement if he is to feature.
However, he’s only 6 - and on a big upward curve. If there is to be a ‘shock’ in the race, he is the one most likely to provide it… 

Haydock

Assuming the meeting goes ahead, then the ground is likely to be somewhere between heavy and bottom-less !
Suffice to say, an abundance of stamina will be the key requirement

1:30

I don’t have an overly strong view on this race.
It’s a novice hurdle - and all of the runners are unexposed, progressive types.
The race is likely to be won by the horse who copes best with conditions.

Llandinabo Lad sets the standard, based on a couple of hurdle wins - and a last time out second at Ascot.
His form is good - and more than that, he looks a hardy type.
However, he will need to give weight to all of his rivals - and on very heavy ground, that will be a big ask.
On form, Minella Drama has a similar chance to Llandinabo Lad.
The 2 clashed at Bangor in Ocotber and Llandinabo Lad came out on top by 5 lengths.
However it was Minella Drama first run under rules - and he is 5lb better off at the weights tomorrow.
On the book, there should be little between the pair.
On official ratings, Nada to Prada also has a similar chance.
She was a good winner of a mares only race over the course, last month.
That race was run on heavy ground - and as it was also over half a mile further, she should have no problem staying tomorrows trip.
The question is whether she will be strong enough against the geldings…
Faivoir has a chance on official ratings - though I’ll be a little surprised if he proves quite good enough.
In fact, Anythingforlove looks a more interesting runner.
She could be unbeaten in 5 runs under rules, if it weren’t for an unfortunate incident with her stirrup, at Uttoxeter in November.
She has been running in relatively modest races, so tomorrow will represent a step up in class.
However, it’s hard to accurately asses her form, so there is a chance she will be up to the task.

2:40

Royal Pagaille was hugely impressive when winning at Kempton over Christmas.
However he went up a massive 16lb for that win - and couldn’t face a more different test tomorrow.
Kempton is a right handed track - and the ground that day was on the soft side of good; Haydock is a left handed track - and the ground tomorrow will be heavy, at best !
In the circumstances - and at the likely odds - he has to be opposed.
Sam Brown is the obvious one to take him on with.
He will be making his handicap debut - but has looked a quality horse, in novice/intermediate races.
In fairness, an opening mark of 152 means the assessor hasn’t exactly missed him - but he could still prove to be better than a handicapper.
He must have very soft ground - and has won previously at Haydock.
Whilst a first time tongue tie - and the booking of crack amateur Ben Godfrey, certainly suggest intent.
With only 3 of the runners in the handicap proper, the short list, is quite short !
Sams Adventure is the final one of major interest, following his course and distance win last time, in the Tommy Whittle chase.
He was only raised 6lb for that win - which certainly looks fair. However, he lacks the potential of the 2 markets leaders.
It strikes me that he’s a very good bet to place - but not such a good bet to win…
Smooth Stepper, is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He won the Grand National trial over tomorrows course in February - and certainly won’t lack for stamina.
However, he’s now 12 - and will be competing off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow.
He’s only likely to win, if the market leaders under perform.

3:15

Former Champion hurdler, Buveur Dair, returns to the track in this race, after 15 months on the sidelines.
He last ran in the 2019 Fighting Fifth hurdle at Newcastle - but sustained a nasty foot injury.
How much of his old ability remains, is anyones guess.
He’s now 10 - and whilst age shouldn’t be a major issue - when coupled with an injury, it must unlikely that he’s as good as he once was.
In fairness, he won’t have to be, if he is to win this.
He receives weight from both of his rivals - with Ballyandy having to concede him 6lb.
Ballyandy is rated 157 - and is quite capable of running to that mark.
However, even if he does, then Buveur Dair will only have to run to a mark of just over 150, in order to win…
He really should be capable of that (at his prime, he was rated 172) - even if heavy ground on his comeback, is hardly ideal.
Navajo Pass has even more to find on official ratings.
He’s only rated 149 - yet has to conceded 3lb to Buveur Dair…
All this said, the race is not really about pounds and lengths.
Fitness and an ability to handle conditions will be the main factors - and Ballyandy  scores a maximum on both counts.
Tactics could also be key - and there’s a chance that Navajo Pass could steal the race from the front…
Clearly, this can’t be a betting race, because there is just too much guesswork involved.
It will still be very interesting to see how it works out - with it possible to make a case (of sorts) for all 3 runners…

Taunton

2:10

There’s just one race from Taunton, being covered on terrestrial TV - and it looks to be at the mercy of Yala Enki.

He was a comfortable winner of the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and it’s quite likely that he will follow up tomorrow.
On official ratings, he is at least 9lb clear of all of his rivals, apart from Al Roc - and as that one is making his UK debut, the assessor has had to guess at his mark.
If the Cap fits should be the biggest danger to Yala Enki.
He is only a novice - but was a grade 1 winning hurdler who was rated 166 at his prime.
He’s not looked a natural over fences - but takes a big step up in trip tomorrow and that could result in him posting an improved effort.
That said, there’s also a chance that hesitant jumping will cost him, as it did in his most recent race, at Kempton.
Rock the Kasbah finished second to Yala Enki in last years race - and whilst it’s hard to see him reversing the form, I would still expect him to run well.
However, the betting may well advise on his chance, as he will be having his first run since last years race.
Ultimately, this appears Yala Enkis race to lose.
The biggest worry is the fact that it’s only 2 weeks since he endured a seriously hard race, when finishing third in the Welsh National. He will need to have a strong constitution to bounce back from that - but I suspect he will be up to the job. 

Review of the day - Jan 16th

 It was a very quiet day in the middle of a very quiet period - and whilst I didn’t feel I forced any bets, there were only 3 races on the day, in which I was ever likely to get involved… 

As it turned out, I found a Best bet in all 3 and whilst they weren’t the strongest bets I’ve suggested this season, I felt reasonably happy with each of them…

Golan Fortune was the first to run - and probably the one I liked best.

He was the outsider in a 3 horse race - but I thought I could see a way in which he could come home in front.

However, it relied on him bossing the race from the front - and the favourite, Next Destination, wouldn’t allow him to do that.

Credit to Harry Cobden (he said through gritted teeth !), as if Next Destination had been ridden by someone else, Golan Fortune may well have got an uncontested lead and been able to steal the race.

However, he gave Next Destination a forceful ride - constantly harrying Golan Fortune, and eventually forcing him into a mistake.

That could have given the initiative to Fiddlerontheroof, but Cobden had kept sufficient in reserve to withstand his late challenge.

Golan Fortune lost little in defeat, ultimately beaten just over 6 lengths, in third place - but that was of little consolation to his supporters (ie, us !)

Django Django was the second Best bet to run on the day.
I fancied him based on his defeat of Notachance 12 months ago, on heavy ground.

My hope, was that with conditions again on his favour, he would be able to confirm the form.
The fact that he could be backed at 3 times the price of Notachance, also added to his appeal !

However, the conditions at Warwick weren’t as soft as I had hoped, and he struggled to get into the race.
By contrast, Notachance was in his element - travelling nicely throughout and then battling when challenged after the last.

I covered stakes for the Matrix, with the well handicapped, Le Breuil - but he got outpaced, before finishing strongly to take third place.
As with Django Django, he requires more of a test than he got today…

The final Best bet of the day, was The Macon Lugnatic.
I was hoping that he might get an uncontested lead - and that David Bass could then control the race from the front - but that’s not how it worked out.

He did get to the front - but he was harried throughout and was beaten turning in.

In fairness, he was a risky one - but then again, so are most 18/1 shots !

I also covered Potters Corner for the Matrix - but could see pre-race, that conditions weren’t going to be soft enough to bring his boundless stamina into play…

There were 4 other races that I previewed (3 at Market Rasen and 1 at Warwick).
However, all 4 were won by the favourite, which at least suggested that my decision to resist any significant financial involvement in them, was a good one !

Ascot and Haydock take centre stage, next Saturday - suffice to say, I will be hoping for better…

TVB.   

Jan 16th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Warwick

1:50
Golan Fortune 5 units win 5/1

3:00 
Django Django 5 units win 10/1
Le Breuil 3 units win 9/2

3:35
The Macon Lugnatic 5 units win 18/1
Potters Corner 3 units win 7/1


Best bets

Warwick

1:50
Golan Fortune 0.5pt win 5/1 (MP 4/1)

3:00 
Django Django 0.5pt win 10/1

3:35
The Macon Lugnatic 0.5pt win 18/1 (MP 14/1)

It was good to see Market Rasen pass its early morning inspection - even if it made no difference to the suggested bets !

The ground there, will doubtless by desperate - and I’ve no doubt there will be plenty of NRs.
I’ll keep an eye on developments for the Live thread - it’s certainly not meeting I would want to attack before racing got underway…

I suspect the ground won’t be much better at Warwick - but the quality of the racing is.

I was therefore happy enough to suggest a few bets - though the usual early prices crashes didn’t help !


Warwick

I think it’s worth taking a risk on Golan Fortune in the 1:50.
He may not have the class of his 2 rivals - but he has the best chase form on offer and should get the run of the race, from the front.
Very soft ground would be a slight concern - but hopefully he’ll get away with it.
Whether he can win, will depend on the quality of his jumping and Keilan Woods getting the fractions right.

The 2:25 is just too open, to consider serious involvement.
10 of the 12 runners can be given a chance - and my inclination is to just pick off the drifters on the exchanges (though not too close to the off !).

I expect there to be a lot of pace, in the 3:00 - which will result in a real stamina test.
Django Django has been my main fancy for most of the week - and I would hope the race will be run to suit him.
He has a feather weight and the heavy ground is exactly what he wants.
Hopefully the combination of the cheek pieces and Dickie in the saddle, will ensure he doesn’t get too far behind early !
If he’s in touch turning for home, I don’t think anything will be finishing more strongly.
Le Breuil is too well handicapped to ignore - and is worth saving on, for the Matrix.
He needs to win in order to get into the Grand National - and a breathing op may well do the trick.
The issue with him is the price, as 9/2 really is a minimum…

I’m not sure why The Macon Lugnatic was such a big price in 3:35 (though I guess we might find out later !).
25/1 was easily available early - and although he was cut just before I issued, 18/1 still seems generous.
There are doubts over the trip and the ground - but he could get an uncontested lead - and he needs to win, if he’s to have any chance of running in the series final.
He’s definitely worth a risk at the odds.
Potters Corner is also worth having on side (for the Matrix), because he is very well handicapped over hurdles - and will relish the likely conditions.
My fear is that he may get outpaced - but if he’s got any chance turning for home, I would expect him to win !


Market Rasen

I could have been very tempted by Oscars Leader at around 7/2, in the 2:05.
However, that price went shortly after the final decs were announced - and showed no sign of returning, even before Langer Dan was taken out of the race !
I do think he’s the most likely race winner, because I can see reasons why the other 3 won’t perform to their best.
However, he was a beaten fav in this race 12 months ago (off a much lower mark) - and with his stable form a worry, I can resist getting involved at around 7/4…

I still can’t see an angle into the 2:40.
On the Blind Side looks the most likely winner - but 6/4 is too short for a horse who could blow out (if last weeks run took more out of him than connections think).
Vision des Flos could bounce back to form - and will love the ground - but may not stay the trip.
Mohaayed could be the one - but there’s too many question marks to consider getting involved at 5/1.

At no point did I even remotely consider getting involved with the 3:15.
It looks to lie between the top 3 in the market - but its impossible to gauge their relative abilities - and there is nothing in the price of any of them, to encourage you to take a risk !

Jan 16th - Preview for Warwick & Market Rasen

Somewhat surprisingly, there are only 2 NH meetings scheduled to take place in the UK tomorrow - and neither is at a grade 1 course. 

I can’t recall that happening previously, in the mid-winter - it appears to be a result of there being an ‘extra’ Saturday in the month (meaning the fixtures have had to be spread out).

There’s actually a chance that we might end up with just the one UK meeting on the day, as Market Rasen needs to survive an early morning inspection.

Hopefully it will - even if I am struggling to see many potential bets from there…

Warwick has a more punter friendly card - and there also doesn’t appear to be any issues with the weather, so the challenge is just likely to be with prices and price availability !

Over in Ireland, they will be racing at Fairyhouse - and the feature Dan Moore Memorial chase, has drawn a truly fascinating field.
That said, the race is a puzzle wrapped up in a conundrum, which only the brave - or stupid - will get heavily involved with !


Warwick

1:50

There may only be 3 declared for this race - but it still looks a very interesting contest…
Next Destination has been installed an odds on favourite, having won a grade 2 on his chasing debut at Newbury in November.
That looked really good effort at the time - though subsequent events have suggested the form might not be overly strong.
All 4 of the beaten horses, have subsequently lost again, suggesting that the race didn’t take too much winning.
That said, the case for Next Destination doesn’t solely rely on his chase form, as he was a dual grade 1 winning hurdler in Ireland - so his natural ability isn’t really open to question.
He also jumped proficiently at Newbury - and that should help him navigate the challenges of Warwick.
Fiddleontheroof is also a former grade 1 winner over hurdles - and whilst he’s only won 1 of his 4 chase starts this season, he’s finished runner up on the other 3 and shown a fair level of form on each occasion.
He steps up in trip tomorrow - which might result in some improvement (or it might not !).
He receives 5lb from Next Destination, and on official figures, that makes him the one to beat (as he has 4lb in hand of the favourite).
Golan Fortune is the final runner in the line-up - and he has no pretensions to be a grade 1 hurdler !
In fact, he was rated a stone inferior to Fiddlerontheroof over hurdlers - and as the older horse, also lacks the same scope for improvement.
That said, he seems to have shown improved form since sent chasing this season - and his last time out fourth to Shan Blue in the Kauto Star novice chase at Kempton over Christmas, is the best chase form on offer.
Furthermore, that run didn’t seem to flatter him - and if he can repeat it tomorrow, his 2 more fancied rivals could well have a race on their hands.
It could also work in his favour, that his is likely to get an uncontested lead.
That tends to be advantageous at the best of times - but in a small field around Warwicks tight track, it may be decisive…

2:25

Whilst this is also an interesting looking race, it looks nearly unsolvable.
There are at least 8, who can be given a decent chance - and with little form on offer, choosing between them will require luck, as much as judgement…

Makes me a Believer has got just about the best form on offer, courtesy of his last time out win at Cheltenham
He stayed on strongly that day - and whilst he is stepping up in trip by half a mile tomorrow, the suggestion is that he should improve for the extra distance.
Jay Bee Why was a really impressive winner over tomorrows course and distance, early in December.
That was his hurdling debut - and he destroyed his 16 rivals, despite not being fancied in the betting.
The question is whether the form amounts to anything - and we’ve little idea on that score.
We should find out plenty about him tomorrow…
Lord of Kerak is another with very limited experience.
He was runner up to Adrimel, early in November - but that was only the second run of his life.
He went one better at Uttoxeter the following month and is clearly a horse on the up.
He also comes from the stable of Olly Murphy, which has been finding its form in recent days, having gone through a quiet period…
Mint Condition is the final one on my short-list - and he has a very different profile to the other 3.
Where they are all inexperienced novices, he has already run 4 times in handicaps.
However, he has won 3 of those 4 races - and still seems to be very much on the improve.
I would expect him to run well tomorrow - though he is vulnerable to a top class horse and is therefore more likely to place than to win…
Chances can be given to plenty of the others, including Oscar Elite, Adrimel, Pure Bliss and Optimise Prime, meaning that it is probably race just to watch and learn from…
.
3:00

3m5f in the Warwick mud, is going to take a bit of getting. This race will be won by a stout stayer…

Captain Chaos finished second in the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and runs tomorrow, off a mark just 2lb higher.
Whilst he won his subsequent start at Doncaster, he has performed abysmally in his 3 starts this season.
However, he hasn’t worn blinkers for any of those runs - and they are reapplied tomorrow.
He is clearly a much better horse when wearing the head gear and as a result, I would expect to see him perform to a similar level as 12 months ago.
If he does, then he sets the standard for the race.
Notachance is ahead of him in the betting because he is an unexposed, progressive horse, who has been targeted at the race.
He is unproven over an extreme trip in heavy ground - but if he copes with the demands, he will be hard to beat.
Le Breuil was quite well fancied for last years race - but ran poorly.
However, he returns this season off an 8lb lower mark - and in better form.
He needs to win, in order to stand a chance of being rated high enough to get into this years Grand National - and he is now looking a well handicapped horse.
He will have no issues with tomorrows ground or trip and therefore should be hard to beat.
Django Django has been out of form this season - but holds Notachance on their run at Newbury last February.
Django Dajango came out on top by nearly 5 lengths that day - and is 5lb better off tomorrow.
It will also be the first time since then then he has encountered heavy ground.
The fitting of cheek pieces is an interesting move for a horse who appeared to run lazily last time - as is the booking of Richard Johnson, who is set to ride at the minimum weight (10 stone).
The Hollow Ginge looks the best of the outsiders, though the fact he unseated in the Welsh National just last Saturday, is a bit off putting.

3:35

As I often say (!), Pertemps qualifiers are never easy to solve - though in fairness, this looks like one of the less trappy ones…

Come on Teddy is the obvious one, on the back of his last time out win in a decent contest at the December Cheltenham meeting.
He comfortably beat On the Blind Side that day - and that one franked the form by running second to McFabulous at Kempton last weekend.
Come on Teddy was only raised 7lb for the win - and still looks competitively treated on a mark of 135.
That said, his rating would already get him into the final, so connections won’t want him getting a big weight rise, by hacking up tomorrow !
It’s a similar situation with both Keppage and Imperial Alcazar.
Both look a suitable types for the final of the series - but are already high enough rated to get into that race, so probably won’t want to jeopardise their chance of a big pot, by picking up a relatively small one tomorrow…
I guess the only thing is, just at the moment, a bird in the hand, is probably worth 2 in the bush !!
Potters Corner is interesting because he is frighteningly well handicapped over hurdles, compared to over fences.
The winner of last seasons Welsh Grand National, he is rated 18lb higher over the bigger obstacles.
He also showed himself effective over hurdles, when wining at Chepstow, just over 12 months ago.
He will relish the likely heavy ground - and if the race does turn into a war, nothing will be better suited.
The Macon Lunatic is the final one of interest.
He was a fair novice last season - but has only run once this campaign.
That was at Cheltenham back in October, when his stable was horribly out of form.
He didn’t feature that day - but I would expect him to do better tomorrow.
He’s a natural front runner - and may well get the run of the race - particularly as cheek pieces are applied for the first time.
My fear would be that they may cause him to do too much - but if David Bass can control his exuberance, then he could take a bit of passing…

Market Rasen

Assuming the course passes its inspection tomorrow morning, the ground is likely to be very soft indeed.

2:05

I could be pretty keen on Oscars Leader in this - if it weren’t for one thing…
In terms of the positives: then he’s a horse who has performed really well on his 2 starts this season - yet has risen only 1lb in the handicap.
He will love the heavy ground - and most importantly, is likely to get an uncontested lead.
Up against 4 rivals, all of whom have question marks over them, that should make him a bet (assuming he’s any sort of a price !).
However, he is trained by Jennie Candlish - and her stable is in poor form.
I’m always a little wary of opposing a horse simply because of poor stable form - but equally, at odds of less than 3/1, I’d be reluctant to support him...
That said, this does look a very winnable race…
The favourite, Edwardstone, is a class horse. However, he will be running tomorrow, on the back on an unseat last time on his chasing debut.
He will not relish the heavy ground - but connections need to get a run into him over hurdles, prior to the Betfair hurdle (his main target).
He has to carry top weight - and is likely to be given a hold up ride.
I suspect a running on placed effort, will be considered quite satisfactory…
Langer Dan and Crooks Peak both represent Dan Skelton - with the former appearing to be his best hope in the race.
He has the form to win, based on his juvenile efforts from last season - but he’s not fired in 2 runs this campaign.
If he bounces back to form tomorrow, he will be the one to beat - though I can’t see the heavy ground really suiting him…
Similar comments apply to Rowland Ward.
He too would go close, based on last seasons juvenile form - but his 2 runs this season have left a lot to be desired - with him finishing particularly weakly, last time at Cheltenham…

2:40

It’s a little surprising to see On the Blind side running in this, just 7 days after he chased home McFabulous at Kempton.
That was a huge effort - probably the best of his life - and whilst it did show he was in top form, it must also have taken a fair bit out of him.
That said, I doubt Nicky Henderson would be running him again, unless he thought the horse could cope with it - and even giving 4lb to all of his rivals, he still very much looks the one to beat.
That said, on official ratings, he shouldn’t beat Lil Rockerfeller.
A former service favourite, he got within an ace of providing TVB with one of its greatest ever days, when narrowly beaten in the 2017 Stayers hurdle.
He’s generally been in decline since then - due in part, no doubt, to a series of massive efforts, early in his career.
It was therefore heart warming to see him bounce back to form last time, when running a cracker at Newbury.
However, even that form puts him a few pounds shy of On the Blind Side - and he’s unlikely to appreciate heavy ground.
Mohaayed may also struggle with the ground - particularly over the trip.
He’s done well stepped up in distance this season - but conditions are likely to put a premium on stamina and he may be found wanting.
Vision des Flos will have no issue with the ground - but the trip, plus both his own form and that of his stable, are definite concerns.
In summary, there are question marks over all 4 of the markets leaders - but on official ratings, the other 4 runners shouldn’t be good enough.
Clearly something has to win the race - but it’s hard to predict with any confidence, what it will be..!

3:15

This is not a race on which I have a strong opinion…

It seems quite significant that Willie Mullins sends over Grangee to contest it - the first Irish runner in the UK, since Brexit !
Mullins won the race last year - and will doubtless be hopeful of doubling up.
Generally speaking, bumpers run in the UK are weaker than bumpers run in Ireland - and with this one having Listed status, a victory will add thousands (if not tens of thousands !), to the value of the winning mare.
On form, Eileendover looks the strongest of the home contingent.
She hacked up on her racecourse debut at Huntingdon, when completely unfancied - and followed that up with an equally impressive performance at Wetherby, when very fancied !
She recorded good figures on both occasions - and in receipt of an 11lb age allowance from all of her rivals, she’s likely to take a bit of beating - provided she handles the ground…
The ground shouldn’t be an issue for Merry Mistress and she is the third one of interest in the race.
She was a comfortable winner on her debut at Hereford - and that race was run on heavy ground.
The form of the race can’t be properly assessed - but knowing she will cope with the likely conditions, is a big positive.
The other 4 look a little outclassed - but with virtually no form to go on, it’s not impossible that one of them will put in a much improved performance.
On balance, this is likely to be another watching race…

Review of the day - Jan 9th

It was good to get some decent racing this afternoon - and even better to find a wining Best bet ! 

The Christmas/New year period was a bit of a struggle, mainly because of the weather - and I did fear it would be more of the same, this weekend.

It’s always a danger at this time of year - but knowing that, doesn’t make it much easier to handle.

I was surprised that all 3 courses passed their early morning inspections - and even though there was doubts over which horses would be running where - along with the state of the ground - I was happy enough to get involved.

I issued 3 Best bets on the day - backed up by a number of Matrix bets.

The Bay Birch was the first of the Best bets to run - and she ran really well at Kempton.
In fact, when she kicked 4 lengths clear rounding the home turn, it momentarily looked as if she might have stolen the race.

However, Smarty Wild and Pistol Whipped were both travelling strongly in behind her - and they pounced jumping the second last.
She battled on bravely to claim third spot - but that was the best she was capable of…

Double Shuffle was the next Best bet on the day.
I noted him running well over the Christmas period - and hoped he’d be able to build on that today.

And build on it, he did !
He travelled nicely throughout the race, jumping like a buck.

Entering the home straight, it was clear that he only had Ami Debois to beat - but regrettably, that one wasn’t stopping !

He was 2 lengths clear over the second last - and whilst Double Shuffle was slowly eating into the lead, he needed a big jump at the last, to stand any chance.

He’d produced great leaps at most of the other fences - and when he really needed one, he delivered again.
More than that, Ami Debois stumbled on landing and his initiative was lost.
James Bowen had to keep Double Shuffle up to his work in order to get home in front - but he did just that - and the horse responded gamely, for a very welcome win…

Shang Tang was the final Best Bet on the day - and I was also quite keen on his chance.
He was given a positive ride by James Bowen - but I suspect they went off too fast.
Certainly, there was a pace collapse rounding the home turn, and all of the leaders were swallowed up by finishers.

Shang Tang was already beaten, at that point - and in fact was pulled after jumping the second last.

Each of the Best bets was supported by a Matrix bet on my second fancy in the respective races - however, none of them managed to get involved in the race finishes.
There were a few other independent Matrix bets - but most of them also ran poorly…

Indefatigable quickly backed out of the Relkeel hurdle at Kempton; whilst neither Yggdrasil nor Elham Valley, featured in the Finale hurdle, at Chepstow.
Also at Chepstow, Christmas in April was beaten before entering the straight in the Welsh National - and it was left to Captain Drake to give Matrix followers something to cheer in the race.
Ultimately he wasn’t good enough to threaten a very well handicapped winner - but his fourth placing at 40/1, was a commendable effort.

With very little of note happening at Wincanton, the only other race worth commenting on, was the Silviniaco Conti chase at Kempton.

I’d not had much luck with the unofficial ante-post weekend bets in the forum (think Milkwood and Benson) - but thankfully luck smiled on Master Tommytucker this afternoon (who I put up at 6/1, on Tuesday)…

Firstly Short priced favourite, Imperial Aura, decanted his jockey at the second fence: and then Harry Cobden managed to stick with Master TT, despite the horse trying to take the last fence home with him !

When your luck is out, it’s out - but things always change, eventually :)

TVB.  

Jan 9th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Kempton

1:10
The Bay Birch 5 units win 11/1
Erick le Rouge 2 units win 4/1 (FP 4/1)

1:45
Double Shuffle 8 units win 11/2
Coo Star Sivola 2 units win 8/1

2:20
Indefatigable 2 units win 16/1

3:30
Shang Tang 5 units win 10/1
One True King 2 units win 5/1

Chepstow

1:25
Yggdrasil 3 units win 14/1
Elham Valley 2 units win 10/1

3:10
Christmas in April 4 units win 10/1
Captain Drake 1 unit wn 40/1


Best bets

Kempton

1:10
The Bay Birch 0.5pt win 11/1

1:45
Double Shuffle 1pt win 11/2

3:30
Shang Tang 0.5pt win 10/1

  

It was a pleasant surprise, to see all 3 courses pass their early morning inspections - ‘the great thaw’ clearly arrived just in the nick of time !

As a result, there will be lots of action for us to enjoy this afternoon - though committing to early bets, was a different matter.

A host of double declarations made figuring out what will actually be running, tricky in some races - and impossible in others.
Whilst it’s also anyones guess how the ground will be riding, having spent multiple days under frost covers…

That said, I have time to consider those variables - and decided relatively early that my focus for bets, would be on Kempton.
I got close to supplementing the Best bets from there, with a couple more from Chepstow - but decided instead, to cover them with the Matrix.

I never really considered anything from Wincanton - when you have a race where there is uncertainty over the participation of all bar one of the runners, I think it’s best not to get involved !

Kempton

My original plan was to put up Erick Le Rouge in the 1:10.
However, he’s been well supported in the market - and there is now minimal value in his price.
He needs to bounce back to form, if he is to win - and whilst he may well do that, there is a risk involved which is not truly reflected in his price.
The Bay Birch also needs to bounce back to form if she is to win - but at least that is factored into her price (even if the margin is continually reducing !).
As a consequence, she is the Best bet in the race - with stakes saved on Erick, for the Matrix…

Double Shuffle is the best bet of the day, in the 1:45.
I decided when he ran at Kempton over Christmas, that I wanted to be with him next time, provided conditions were right - and I think conditions are right.
I heard a rumour that he needed the run last time - and if that was the case, he really will take some beating this afternoon.
Coo Star Sivola is the biggest danger, if he bounces back to form - and is worth a saver, for the Matrix…

There was a slight temptation to put up Indefatigable as a Best bet in the 2:20, as I do think a strong theoretical argument can be made for her (at the prices).
However, there is a chance that she is running in this race because she has no other options.
If that’s the case, then I’d be less keen on her.
I still think she is worth covering to small stakes, via the Matrix - but she isn’t a Best bet.
Summerville Boy is possibly the next most interesting one - though whatever, you would have to fear Mcfabulous…

There is arguably a little bit of juice in a price of 7/2 about Master Tommytucker in the 2:55.
That said, it is a strong race (even with just 4 runners) - and with slight concerns over his jumping, I can resist him at that price.
Riders onthe Storm is potentially more appealing at a price of 11/2 - though he too, comes with risks…

I think Shang Tang is worth supporting in the 3:30.
He has the right profile for a race of this nature - and his form looks strong.
At the prices, I’m happy to make him a Best bet.
One True King looks the biggest danger - but there is minimal margin in his price.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix however - particularly as his price could drift, nearer the off…

Chepstow

I got pretty close to making Yggdrasil a Best bet in the 1:25.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved and it would have been a pure value based call.
At 20/1, I would probably have gone with him - but his price was cut to 14/1 this morning and that reduced the appeal.
It can also be argued that he shouldn’t really beat Elham Valley - and arguably that one is better value at 10/1.
After consideration, I decided the best way to cover them, was with small stakes, via the Matrix.

I got even closer to making Christmas in April a Best bet in the 3:10.
However, part of that was because it’s the Welsh National - and so I knew that you should all be able to get on relatively easily !
I shouldn’t really be suggesting bets based on the ease of placement - so after due consideration, I decided to just cover him via the Matrix.
I do think he’s got a good chance - but it’s a very competitive race, with a strong looking favourite, so confidence will always be limited.
In addition, I want to cover Captain Drake, via a minimum stake on the Matrix.
It’s a pure ‘value bet’ - but if he was to win at 40/1 and I’d not covered him at all, I wouldn’t be happy !

Wincanton

There was just too much uncertainty, to consider getting involved early, with any of the Wincanton races…

Protektorat should win the 2:05 - but he’s heavily odds on and faces a couple of reasonable rivals.
Lieutenant Rocco is the theoretical value in the race at 12/1 - but will probably finish last !

Evander is very short in the 2:35 - and I’d be inclined to take him on - though I’m not sure with what…
Gala Ball and Slate House probably make most appeal - but not sufficient to suggest either one.

Gardefort at 4/1 is moderately tempting in the 3:45 - though there are a couple of significant question marks over him.
It boils down to whether he can reproduce the form of his last run - if he can, he’ll take a bit of beating, but there is a real chance he will ‘bounce’.
I’d prefer him at bigger odds in a stronger field - as he would then be worth a risk.
At the price on offer, I think he can just be watched…

Jan 9th - Preview for Sandown, Chepstow & Wincanton

I was a little surprised to see both Chepstow and Wincanton survive their inspections, earlier this afternoon - but less surprised to see that they will be re-inspecting both courses at 8:00 tomorrow. 

They will also be inspecting Kempton at the same time - and it’s anyones guess as to which of the meetings will actually take place.

Worse than that, I’ll be surprised if we have much more clarity at 8:15 - as I reckon we will be in for a morning of inspections...
They managed to inspected Ffos Las 4 times on Wednesday, before finally abandoning, 15 mins before the first race was due to be run - you have been warned !

The other issue we’ll have, is knowing which horses will be running where.
Maybe unsurprisingly, there are a host of double declarations, with a number of horses declared for races at 2 different courses.
Again, it’s going to be impossible to know how these will all work out, until relatively close to the off.

Suffice to say, the day is shrouded in uncertainty !

Still, it is what it is.
It doesn’t affect my ability to preview the races - though it may well make me more reticent to suggest bets.
I’ll start looking at 9:00, as planned - but fully expect to have to revisit the bet issuing, at least once during the morning.

For now, I’ll stick to previewing the 10 races which are scheduled to feature on terrestrial TV.
Depending on how things pan out, I may end up also looking at some of the other races for bet - but I’ll play that by ear…



Kempton

1:10

I put up Erick le Rouge as a Best bet, when he was declared to run at Kempton over the Christmas period.
However, he was a non runner that day, due to soft ground…
Interestingly, whilst that race was over 3 miles (a trip over which he is unproven), tomorrow race is over 2m4f (a trip over which he is very much proven !).
That might not be overly significant, if it weren’t for the fact that the very next race on the card is over 3 miles (so he did have the option).
I’m not quite sure how to read that (a change of heart ?) - but suffice to say, he appears to have a very good chance tomorrow, on a track he loves; over a suitable trip and following a wind op - provided the ground is indeed, relatively quick.
He is currently second fav for the race behind Espoir De Romay.
It’s easy enough to see why he is the market leader, following his 7 length defeat by Royal Pagaille at Haydock, when conceding 5lb.
The winner subsequently came out and dotted up at Kempton.
He got a stone rise in the ratings for his trouble - and taking the form of the Haydock race literally, it can be argued that Espoir de Romay ran to a rating of around 150.
That’s not impossible - and if he were to repeat the level of form tomorrow, he would have 10lb in hand of his mark (which would make him very hard to beat).
Evander is on an upward trajectory having won a small field novice handicap at Doncaster, last time.
However, he will be running off a mark 9lb higher tomorrow, in a much tougher race…
Half cases can be made for Smarty Wild, Pistol Whipped and Mahlervous - but at a much bigger price, The Bay Birch looks more interesting, running off a mark 17lb lower, than when last successful at Chepstow, 18 months ago.
In fairness, she has been beaten numerous times in the intervening period, off falling marks - but has run with credit on a few occasions.
There is no doubt she is extremely well handicapped - and things will doubtless drop into place for her sooner or later.
Whether that will be tomorrow, remains to be seen.

1:45

Double Shuffle caught my eye on his latest run at Kempton, over the Christmas period.
That was the race in which Erick le Rouge was a NR, and in his absence, Double Shuffle became my fancy.
And in fairness, he ran pretty well - chasing an overly strong pace and only weakening out of things, up the home straight.
Ultimately, he was beaten over 20 lengths - but it was by a couple of progressive rivals - and he was dropped 2lb in the ratings as a consequence.
That puts him on a mark of 140 - and there is no doubt that he is now handicapped to win.
A second race inside a fortnight, is a slight worry: as would be soft ground - but in a race where there are no obvious big improvers, he looks the one to beat.
Coo Star Sivola could be a danger.
He too is potentially very well handicapped - though injuries have resulted in him making very few appearances over the past couple of seasons.
His comeback run at Bangor early in November, suggested that most of the ability remains - whilst Richard Johnson is a very interesting jockey booking.
Of the favourites, I prefer Two for Gold to Commodore - though at the prices on offer, both can be opposed.
Slate House is of more interest - even off top weight, back over the same course and distance over which he won last seasons Kauto Star novice chase.
He’s disappointed in 3 subsequent runs - but a rating of 150 doesn’t look harsh; whilst a recent wind op could result in him putting in an improved effort.

2:20

This race has been saved from the Cheltenham New Years day card - and despite there only being 7 runners, it’s still a very interesting contest.

McFabulous has been installed a short priced favourite in the early market - and it’s easy to see why.
He won the final of the EBF series, over tomorrows course and distance, back in March - and has looked an improved performer on his 2 runs this season.
The most recent of them was a in a grade 1 at Newbury and he was sent off fav to beat Paisley Park and Thyme Hill.
He came up slightly short that day - but was only beaten 6 lengths and travelled like the winner, to the second last hurdle.
Cut back in trip tomorrow, he sets a very high standard and should prove difficult to beat.
That said, on official ratings, he is 5lb shy of Younevercall.
He too finished behind Paisley Park and Thyme Hill on his most recent outing - this time at Ascot, just before Christmas.
Furthermore he had proved himself fully effective over tomorrows course and distance, when a very narrow runner up to Storm Goddess on his previous outing.
The form book says that he sets the race standard - even if the bookies (and to an extent, me !) aren’t buying that…
Summerville Boy and Thomas Darby can both be given fair chances - on certain pieces of form.
It certainly wouldn’t be the biggest shock if either were to win - though equally, it’s impossible to make a really strong case for either, based on form or ratings.
In fact, a better case can be made for Indefatigable.
She won the Martin Pipe hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and on the back of that, her rating was increased to 150.
It remains to be seen whether she deserves such a mark - but if she does, then on official adjusted figures, she is the second best horse in the race - and only 2lb below the best (Younevercall).
She disappointed on her most recent run, back in November - but has been given plenty of time to recover from that.
Richie McClernan replaces Rex Dingle in the saddle - and he rode her when she won at Warwick, in February…
She certainly represents the early value in the race, at around 16/1…

2:55

There may only be 4 runners in this race, but it is still a fascinating contest.

I suggested Master Tommytucker as an unofficial bet in the forum, earlier in the week - and I still think he has an excellent chance.
In terms of pure ability, he is a match for all of his rivals - and the small field should suit him perfectly.
I would expect Harry Cobden to dictated things from the front - and provided his jumping holds up, I think he will be hard to pass.
In truth, prior to his last 2 runs, his jumping would have been a major concern.
However, it was flawless when winning his penultimate start at Haydock - and perhaps more importantly, he managed to stay on his feet when put under serious pressure last time at Cheltenham.
That was the run which caused me to change my mind on him - and whilst I can’t absolutely guarantee he won’t fall tomorrow, I’m very hopeful he won’t - and provided he doesn’t, I think he is the one to beat.
That said, he faces a formidable opponent in Imperial Aura.
He was very impressive when winning at the Cheltenham festival on his final start last season - and has looked a much improved horse in his 2 runs this season.
He is now favourite for the Ryanair chase - but will need to win tomorrow if he is to justify that position.
He may be capable of doing just that - but he has to concede 6lb to Master Tommytucker - and that won’t be easy.
Not that this is a 2 horse race…
Third fav, Ridersonthestorm, won a grade 1 race just 3 outings ago - and has had excuses for his 2 subsequent defeats.
He has a very real chance tomorrow - and a current quote of 5/1, under-estimates him.
Clondaw Castle is the final runner - and whilst it is right that he is the outsider of the field, he is still a very talented animal. On official ratings, he is the equal of Master Tommytucker and superior to Ridersonthestorm.
Furthermore, the 2m4f trip on reasonable ground should be perfect for him.
I wouldn’t expect him to be quite good enough to win - but equally, I will be surprised if he is beaten far…

3:30

This looks a fiercely competitive contest, with a bumper field (currently 20) expected to go to post.

One True King has just about worked his way to the head of the market - and I’ve little issue with that.
He’s a young, progressive horse, who has already run well 3 times this season - and who could easily improve for tomorrows step up in trip.
His first 2 run this season were in decent handicaps at Cheltenham - and whilst he was beaten in them both, he still performed with considerable credit.
He managed to get off the mark for the season, on his most recent outing at Leicester - and whilst the form of that run isn’t quite so good, he may well have benefited from actually winning the race.
His mark has gradually edged up to 132 - but that still looks workable.
He is disputing favouritism with Everglow.
He too is young and progressive - though he doesn’t have the big race experience of One True King.
He might get away with that - but then again, he might not…
Shang Tang is the next one of interest…
He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Wetherby in October, when third to a couple of well handicapped horses.
He followed that up, by winning a 4 runner race at Ascot - and whilst that doesn’t sound strong form, the fact that the runner up filled the same spot on his next outing - and got a 5lb rise for his efforts - suggests that it just might be.
Shang Tang fell at the first on his most recent run (in the same race), which is never ideal.
However, provided that hasn’t left a mark, I would expect him to run well.
The White Mouse has been really impressive in winning her 2 races this season - but her rating is going up and the opposition is getting stronger; whilst Hunters Call looks the best of the exposed horses.
He’s run really well in his last 2 races - but equally he has been beaten on both occasions - and runs off the same mark tomorrow.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - but that’s to be expected in a race of this nature…

Chepstow

1:25

It’s rarely easy to assess the form in juvenile hurdle races - and that’s certainly the case in this one.

Nassalam has been installed a short priced favourite on the back of 2 comprehensive wins at Fontwell.
The form of those races amounts to very little - but he couldn’t have won more easily - and he recorded good numbers in the process.
It’s probably right that he heads the market - but I suspect is a bit of ‘the next Goshen’ in his price…
Next in, is Houx Gris.
He’s even harder to assess, as he’s making his UK debut for Paul Nichols.
He’s been priced up purely on connections - and the fact that they appear to hold him in high regard.
Whether he will be able to justify their faith on the racecourse, remains to be seen…
Adagio is easier to assess.
His 2 most recent outings have both been at Cheltenham - and he’s shown a reasonable level of form.
That said, he should need to improve on what he has done so far, if he’s to take a race of this nature.
Elnham Valley was an impressive winner last time, on his hurdling debut at Sandown.
He was quite limited on the flat - but appeared to improve significantly, when asked to jump 8 flights of hurdles.
In all probability, he will need to improve again, if he is to take tomorrows contest - but that could happen...
Yggdrasil finished behind Elnham Valley at Sandown - but that was his very first time on a racecourse.
It’s likely that he will have derived significant benefit from the experience - and certainly not impossible that he will find the 6 lengths necessary to reverse the form with the winner.
Whether he will be able to find sufficient improvement to be able to win the race, is a different matter - but again, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility…

3:10

The Welsh National revolves around Secret Reprieve.
He was a really impressive winner of the trial for the race, run over the course early in December.
If the handicapper had been able to take that run into consideration, then Secret Reprieve would be running off a nearly stone higher mark tomorrow.
However, he wasn’t (because it’s an early closing race) - and as a consequence, he just incurs a 4lb penalty for the win.
That means he is 8lb ‘well in’ - and he also has plenty of scope for further progression.
He’s unproven over tomorrows trip - but wasn’t stopping last time, over half a mile shorter.
The delay in running the race (originally scheduled for Dec 27th), will work in his favour - and he is very much the one to beat.
Springfield Fox is next in the betting - and is similarly unexposed.
However, he hasn’t yet proved himself, in the same way as Secret Reprieve.
Of more interest, is Christmas in April.
He is more exposed than the 2 market leaders - but is proven over marathon trips and in heavy ground.
He was a big improver last season - and ran with promise on his seasonal debut at Fontwell.
He is trained by Colin Tizzard, and his daughter is remembered in the title of the race.
She died tragically, in the middle of last year - and there can be little doubt that Christmas in April will be doing his very best to honour her memory.
Dominateur and Lord du Mesnil are 2 more interesting runners…
The former proved himself in the Chepstow mud when winning over 3 miles, on last seasons Welsh National under card.
Lord du Mesnil was a big improver last season - and whilst he does look a touch high in the handicap, he will be far better suited to tomorrows test, than he was when unplaced over 2m5f last time.
Again, plenty of those at big prices, can be given at least half chances.
The Hollow Ginge ran really well last time, in the Hennessy - and can be expected to run well again tomorrow, off a pound lower mark.
Vieux Lion Rouge is another who could run well.
Like Secret Reprieve, he is 8lb ‘well in’ following his win in the Becher chase.
He will have no issue with the ground or trip - though at 12, he’s not likely to be improving !
He may be a fair EW play.
The same is true of Captain Drake.
He finished second to Truckers Lodge in last seasons Midlands national.
On 12lb better terms tomorrow, he has every chance of reversing the form - and yet can be backed at 5 times the price…

Wincanton

I really expected Wincanton to be abandoned, when they inspected earlier today - but it now looks as if there’s a chance the meeting might go ahead.
That said, it’s the weakest of the 3 fixtures, so even if it does, I’ll be a little surprised if I can find any bets there…

2:05

I almost certainly won’t be finding a bet in this particular race !
Just the 3 are likely to go to post - and realistically, it looks to be a match between Protektorat and Messire des Obeaux.
In fairness, both appear to be very good novices - with Protektorat in particular, looking as if he could be from the top drawer.
He barely put a foot wrong when winning on his chasing debut at Carlisle, in October - and was just as impressive the following month, when hammering Southfield Stone at Cheltenham.
That said, he will probably be facing a stronger rival in Messire des Obeaus, than anything he's faced previously - so the race should be a decent test for him.
Messire was actually a better hurdler than Protektorat - but then had the best part of 3 years on the side lines.
However, he looked very good when winning over tomorrows course and distance on his chasing debut, last month - and if he can build on that, he will certainly test Protektorat (at very least).
Lieutentant Rocco is the other runner in the field - and whilst he should be outclassed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out-run his odds.
He ran very well last time, when runner up to Fusil Raffles in a a decent novice chase at Cheltenham - and if he repeats that level of form, he certainly won’t be disgraced.

2:35

This is a near impossible race to assess, as 8 of the 9 runners have other engagements, either at Kempton or at Chepstow.
It’s anyones guess which runners will actually go to post - which makes previewing it, an almost pointless exercise…
For what it’s worth, Capeland is the one runner fully committed to the contest (no alternative engagement) - and he should have a fair chance, stepped back up in trip.
He’s won previously over tomorrows course and distance, so the test will clearly suit him.
Of the others, then Gala Ball is probably the most interesting.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago and must have every chance of following up tomorrow, off a mark just 1lb higher.

3:45

Relatively speaking, this is quite an unappealing contest.
Glajou heads the market.
He was a good winner at Southwell, early in December - and followed that up with a fair effort to finish third at Taunton, just 9 days later.
He’s still got plenty of scope for improvement - and could well have benefited from his subsequent break.
He doesn’t set an insurmountable standard - but is probably the right favourite.
That said, if he could refind his old form - or even just repeat the form of his most recent run, then Gardefort would take a lot of beating.
Rated as high as 145 in his prime - he was off the course for 18 months, prior to his recent second to Bennys King at Ascot.
That was a strong race - stronger than tomorrows - and Gardefort looked like winning for a good part of it.
A reproduction of that effort would probably be good enough tomorrow - but there are a couple of potential issues…
Firstly, it was a huge effort, just 3 weeks ago, on the back of a very long break - and often that sees a horse ’bounce’ the next time it runs (ie. run below form).
The other issue is that Gardefort is now 12 - and quite likely to be in decline.
Few others in the race hold much appeal - so it’s certainly not a contest that should take a lot of winning…