Somewhat surprisingly, there are only 2 NH meetings scheduled to take place in the UK tomorrow - and neither is at a grade 1 course.
I can’t recall that happening previously, in the mid-winter - it appears to be a result of there being an ‘extra’ Saturday in the month (meaning the fixtures have had to be spread out).There’s actually a chance that we might end up with just the one UK meeting on the day, as Market Rasen needs to survive an early morning inspection.
Hopefully it will - even if I am struggling to see many potential bets from there…
Warwick has a more punter friendly card - and there also doesn’t appear to be any issues with the weather, so the challenge is just likely to be with prices and price availability !
Over in Ireland, they will be racing at Fairyhouse - and the feature Dan Moore Memorial chase, has drawn a truly fascinating field.
That said, the race is a puzzle wrapped up in a conundrum, which only the brave - or stupid - will get heavily involved with !
Warwick
1:50
There may only be 3 declared for this race - but it still looks a very interesting contest…
Next Destination has been installed an odds on favourite, having won a grade 2 on his chasing debut at Newbury in November.
That looked really good effort at the time - though subsequent events have suggested the form might not be overly strong.
All 4 of the beaten horses, have subsequently lost again, suggesting that the race didn’t take too much winning.
That said, the case for Next Destination doesn’t solely rely on his chase form, as he was a dual grade 1 winning hurdler in Ireland - so his natural ability isn’t really open to question.
He also jumped proficiently at Newbury - and that should help him navigate the challenges of Warwick.
Fiddleontheroof is also a former grade 1 winner over hurdles - and whilst he’s only won 1 of his 4 chase starts this season, he’s finished runner up on the other 3 and shown a fair level of form on each occasion.
He steps up in trip tomorrow - which might result in some improvement (or it might not !).
He receives 5lb from Next Destination, and on official figures, that makes him the one to beat (as he has 4lb in hand of the favourite).
Golan Fortune is the final runner in the line-up - and he has no pretensions to be a grade 1 hurdler !
In fact, he was rated a stone inferior to Fiddlerontheroof over hurdlers - and as the older horse, also lacks the same scope for improvement.
That said, he seems to have shown improved form since sent chasing this season - and his last time out fourth to Shan Blue in the Kauto Star novice chase at Kempton over Christmas, is the best chase form on offer.
Furthermore, that run didn’t seem to flatter him - and if he can repeat it tomorrow, his 2 more fancied rivals could well have a race on their hands.
It could also work in his favour, that his is likely to get an uncontested lead.
That tends to be advantageous at the best of times - but in a small field around Warwicks tight track, it may be decisive…
2:25
Whilst this is also an interesting looking race, it looks nearly unsolvable.
There are at least 8, who can be given a decent chance - and with little form on offer, choosing between them will require luck, as much as judgement…
Makes me a Believer has got just about the best form on offer, courtesy of his last time out win at Cheltenham
He stayed on strongly that day - and whilst he is stepping up in trip by half a mile tomorrow, the suggestion is that he should improve for the extra distance.
Jay Bee Why was a really impressive winner over tomorrows course and distance, early in December.
That was his hurdling debut - and he destroyed his 16 rivals, despite not being fancied in the betting.
The question is whether the form amounts to anything - and we’ve little idea on that score.
We should find out plenty about him tomorrow…
Lord of Kerak is another with very limited experience.
He was runner up to Adrimel, early in November - but that was only the second run of his life.
He went one better at Uttoxeter the following month and is clearly a horse on the up.
He also comes from the stable of Olly Murphy, which has been finding its form in recent days, having gone through a quiet period…
Mint Condition is the final one on my short-list - and he has a very different profile to the other 3.
Where they are all inexperienced novices, he has already run 4 times in handicaps.
However, he has won 3 of those 4 races - and still seems to be very much on the improve.
I would expect him to run well tomorrow - though he is vulnerable to a top class horse and is therefore more likely to place than to win…
Chances can be given to plenty of the others, including Oscar Elite, Adrimel, Pure Bliss and Optimise Prime, meaning that it is probably race just to watch and learn from…
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3:00
3m5f in the Warwick mud, is going to take a bit of getting. This race will be won by a stout stayer…
Captain Chaos finished second in the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and runs tomorrow, off a mark just 2lb higher.
Whilst he won his subsequent start at Doncaster, he has performed abysmally in his 3 starts this season.
However, he hasn’t worn blinkers for any of those runs - and they are reapplied tomorrow.
He is clearly a much better horse when wearing the head gear and as a result, I would expect to see him perform to a similar level as 12 months ago.
If he does, then he sets the standard for the race.
Notachance is ahead of him in the betting because he is an unexposed, progressive horse, who has been targeted at the race.
He is unproven over an extreme trip in heavy ground - but if he copes with the demands, he will be hard to beat.
Le Breuil was quite well fancied for last years race - but ran poorly.
However, he returns this season off an 8lb lower mark - and in better form.
He needs to win, in order to stand a chance of being rated high enough to get into this years Grand National - and he is now looking a well handicapped horse.
He will have no issues with tomorrows ground or trip and therefore should be hard to beat.
Django Django has been out of form this season - but holds Notachance on their run at Newbury last February.
Django Dajango came out on top by nearly 5 lengths that day - and is 5lb better off tomorrow.
It will also be the first time since then then he has encountered heavy ground.
The fitting of cheek pieces is an interesting move for a horse who appeared to run lazily last time - as is the booking of Richard Johnson, who is set to ride at the minimum weight (10 stone).
The Hollow Ginge looks the best of the outsiders, though the fact he unseated in the Welsh National just last Saturday, is a bit off putting.
3:35
As I often say (!), Pertemps qualifiers are never easy to solve - though in fairness, this looks like one of the less trappy ones…
Come on Teddy is the obvious one, on the back of his last time out win in a decent contest at the December Cheltenham meeting.
He comfortably beat On the Blind Side that day - and that one franked the form by running second to McFabulous at Kempton last weekend.
Come on Teddy was only raised 7lb for the win - and still looks competitively treated on a mark of 135.
That said, his rating would already get him into the final, so connections won’t want him getting a big weight rise, by hacking up tomorrow !
It’s a similar situation with both Keppage and Imperial Alcazar.
Both look a suitable types for the final of the series - but are already high enough rated to get into that race, so probably won’t want to jeopardise their chance of a big pot, by picking up a relatively small one tomorrow…
I guess the only thing is, just at the moment, a bird in the hand, is probably worth 2 in the bush !!
Potters Corner is interesting because he is frighteningly well handicapped over hurdles, compared to over fences.
The winner of last seasons Welsh Grand National, he is rated 18lb higher over the bigger obstacles.
He also showed himself effective over hurdles, when wining at Chepstow, just over 12 months ago.
He will relish the likely heavy ground - and if the race does turn into a war, nothing will be better suited.
The Macon Lunatic is the final one of interest.
He was a fair novice last season - but has only run once this campaign.
That was at Cheltenham back in October, when his stable was horribly out of form.
He didn’t feature that day - but I would expect him to do better tomorrow.
He’s a natural front runner - and may well get the run of the race - particularly as cheek pieces are applied for the first time.
My fear would be that they may cause him to do too much - but if David Bass can control his exuberance, then he could take a bit of passing…
Market Rasen
Assuming the course passes its inspection tomorrow morning, the ground is likely to be very soft indeed.
2:05
I could be pretty keen on Oscars Leader in this - if it weren’t for one thing…
In terms of the positives: then he’s a horse who has performed really well on his 2 starts this season - yet has risen only 1lb in the handicap.
He will love the heavy ground - and most importantly, is likely to get an uncontested lead.
Up against 4 rivals, all of whom have question marks over them, that should make him a bet (assuming he’s any sort of a price !).
However, he is trained by Jennie Candlish - and her stable is in poor form.
I’m always a little wary of opposing a horse simply because of poor stable form - but equally, at odds of less than 3/1, I’d be reluctant to support him...
That said, this does look a very winnable race…
The favourite, Edwardstone, is a class horse. However, he will be running tomorrow, on the back on an unseat last time on his chasing debut.
He will not relish the heavy ground - but connections need to get a run into him over hurdles, prior to the Betfair hurdle (his main target).
He has to carry top weight - and is likely to be given a hold up ride.
I suspect a running on placed effort, will be considered quite satisfactory…
Langer Dan and Crooks Peak both represent Dan Skelton - with the former appearing to be his best hope in the race.
He has the form to win, based on his juvenile efforts from last season - but he’s not fired in 2 runs this campaign.
If he bounces back to form tomorrow, he will be the one to beat - though I can’t see the heavy ground really suiting him…
Similar comments apply to Rowland Ward.
He too would go close, based on last seasons juvenile form - but his 2 runs this season have left a lot to be desired - with him finishing particularly weakly, last time at Cheltenham…
2:40
It’s a little surprising to see On the Blind side running in this, just 7 days after he chased home McFabulous at Kempton.
That was a huge effort - probably the best of his life - and whilst it did show he was in top form, it must also have taken a fair bit out of him.
That said, I doubt Nicky Henderson would be running him again, unless he thought the horse could cope with it - and even giving 4lb to all of his rivals, he still very much looks the one to beat.
That said, on official ratings, he shouldn’t beat Lil Rockerfeller.
A former service favourite, he got within an ace of providing TVB with one of its greatest ever days, when narrowly beaten in the 2017 Stayers hurdle.
He’s generally been in decline since then - due in part, no doubt, to a series of massive efforts, early in his career.
It was therefore heart warming to see him bounce back to form last time, when running a cracker at Newbury.
However, even that form puts him a few pounds shy of On the Blind Side - and he’s unlikely to appreciate heavy ground.
Mohaayed may also struggle with the ground - particularly over the trip.
He’s done well stepped up in distance this season - but conditions are likely to put a premium on stamina and he may be found wanting.
Vision des Flos will have no issue with the ground - but the trip, plus both his own form and that of his stable, are definite concerns.
In summary, there are question marks over all 4 of the markets leaders - but on official ratings, the other 4 runners shouldn’t be good enough.
Clearly something has to win the race - but it’s hard to predict with any confidence, what it will be..!
3:15
This is not a race on which I have a strong opinion…
It seems quite significant that Willie Mullins sends over Grangee to contest it - the first Irish runner in the UK, since Brexit !
Mullins won the race last year - and will doubtless be hopeful of doubling up.
Generally speaking, bumpers run in the UK are weaker than bumpers run in Ireland - and with this one having Listed status, a victory will add thousands (if not tens of thousands !), to the value of the winning mare.
On form, Eileendover looks the strongest of the home contingent.
She hacked up on her racecourse debut at Huntingdon, when completely unfancied - and followed that up with an equally impressive performance at Wetherby, when very fancied !
She recorded good figures on both occasions - and in receipt of an 11lb age allowance from all of her rivals, she’s likely to take a bit of beating - provided she handles the ground…
The ground shouldn’t be an issue for Merry Mistress and she is the third one of interest in the race.
She was a comfortable winner on her debut at Hereford - and that race was run on heavy ground.
The form of the race can’t be properly assessed - but knowing she will cope with the likely conditions, is a big positive.
The other 4 look a little outclassed - but with virtually no form to go on, it’s not impossible that one of them will put in a much improved performance.
On balance, this is likely to be another watching race…
Assuming the course passes its inspection tomorrow morning, the ground is likely to be very soft indeed.
2:05
I could be pretty keen on Oscars Leader in this - if it weren’t for one thing…
In terms of the positives: then he’s a horse who has performed really well on his 2 starts this season - yet has risen only 1lb in the handicap.
He will love the heavy ground - and most importantly, is likely to get an uncontested lead.
Up against 4 rivals, all of whom have question marks over them, that should make him a bet (assuming he’s any sort of a price !).
However, he is trained by Jennie Candlish - and her stable is in poor form.
I’m always a little wary of opposing a horse simply because of poor stable form - but equally, at odds of less than 3/1, I’d be reluctant to support him...
That said, this does look a very winnable race…
The favourite, Edwardstone, is a class horse. However, he will be running tomorrow, on the back on an unseat last time on his chasing debut.
He will not relish the heavy ground - but connections need to get a run into him over hurdles, prior to the Betfair hurdle (his main target).
He has to carry top weight - and is likely to be given a hold up ride.
I suspect a running on placed effort, will be considered quite satisfactory…
Langer Dan and Crooks Peak both represent Dan Skelton - with the former appearing to be his best hope in the race.
He has the form to win, based on his juvenile efforts from last season - but he’s not fired in 2 runs this campaign.
If he bounces back to form tomorrow, he will be the one to beat - though I can’t see the heavy ground really suiting him…
Similar comments apply to Rowland Ward.
He too would go close, based on last seasons juvenile form - but his 2 runs this season have left a lot to be desired - with him finishing particularly weakly, last time at Cheltenham…
2:40
It’s a little surprising to see On the Blind side running in this, just 7 days after he chased home McFabulous at Kempton.
That was a huge effort - probably the best of his life - and whilst it did show he was in top form, it must also have taken a fair bit out of him.
That said, I doubt Nicky Henderson would be running him again, unless he thought the horse could cope with it - and even giving 4lb to all of his rivals, he still very much looks the one to beat.
That said, on official ratings, he shouldn’t beat Lil Rockerfeller.
A former service favourite, he got within an ace of providing TVB with one of its greatest ever days, when narrowly beaten in the 2017 Stayers hurdle.
He’s generally been in decline since then - due in part, no doubt, to a series of massive efforts, early in his career.
It was therefore heart warming to see him bounce back to form last time, when running a cracker at Newbury.
However, even that form puts him a few pounds shy of On the Blind Side - and he’s unlikely to appreciate heavy ground.
Mohaayed may also struggle with the ground - particularly over the trip.
He’s done well stepped up in distance this season - but conditions are likely to put a premium on stamina and he may be found wanting.
Vision des Flos will have no issue with the ground - but the trip, plus both his own form and that of his stable, are definite concerns.
In summary, there are question marks over all 4 of the markets leaders - but on official ratings, the other 4 runners shouldn’t be good enough.
Clearly something has to win the race - but it’s hard to predict with any confidence, what it will be..!
3:15
This is not a race on which I have a strong opinion…
It seems quite significant that Willie Mullins sends over Grangee to contest it - the first Irish runner in the UK, since Brexit !
Mullins won the race last year - and will doubtless be hopeful of doubling up.
Generally speaking, bumpers run in the UK are weaker than bumpers run in Ireland - and with this one having Listed status, a victory will add thousands (if not tens of thousands !), to the value of the winning mare.
On form, Eileendover looks the strongest of the home contingent.
She hacked up on her racecourse debut at Huntingdon, when completely unfancied - and followed that up with an equally impressive performance at Wetherby, when very fancied !
She recorded good figures on both occasions - and in receipt of an 11lb age allowance from all of her rivals, she’s likely to take a bit of beating - provided she handles the ground…
The ground shouldn’t be an issue for Merry Mistress and she is the third one of interest in the race.
She was a comfortable winner on her debut at Hereford - and that race was run on heavy ground.
The form of the race can’t be properly assessed - but knowing she will cope with the likely conditions, is a big positive.
The other 4 look a little outclassed - but with virtually no form to go on, it’s not impossible that one of them will put in a much improved performance.
On balance, this is likely to be another watching race…
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