Wednesday 31 March 2021

Review of the Weekend - Mar 27th-28th

 The weekends between Cheltenham and Aintree are always a bit quiet - and that was certainly the case this weekend, with just 2 races on terrestrial TV across the 2 days.


However, there were some reasonable races: whilst things do tend to be a touch easier, when you’re not trying to solve ferocious big field handicaps !  


Saturday

Rain on Friday, slightly messed up the ground at both Newbury and Kelso, which I could have done without.

I did at least get to see the effect at Newbury, as they raced there on the Friday.
However, I had to guess on the impact at Kelso - and that made me a bit nervous about getting heavily involved (it doesn’t take much !).

As a consequence, I ended up with just a couple of Best bets on the day.

The first one was a speculative play at Kelso.
I was hopeful, that stepped back up in trip, after a couple of runs at shorter distances - and with a 10lb claimer in the saddle, Taxmeifyoucan might be able to outrun his odds.

I knew he was risky - and that he might not have the required class to stay with the field when the pace quickened - however, I was hoping that he might be able to finish strongly and perhaps grab a win.

Well, I got the first part right - he did struggle to maintain a position when the pace quickened - but alas, that was it !

I’ve no excuses, he simply wasn’t good enough.

I thought I saw an angle: I was wrong: we move on !

The other Best bet on the day was Espoire de Teillee at Newbury…

He was a different beast, as I felt I could dissect his race - and he came out as the most likely winner (provided I was right !).

In truth, I wasn’t quite right - as I thought that Kalooki and Boldmere might get into a battle for the lead.
Instead, Grand Sancy went off like a scalded cat - and neither of the other two made it to the front.

However, Espoire de Teillee got a great ride from Tom Scu - sitting in the box seat, just behind the leader.
Ultimately, I think that won him the race, as whilst Kalooki put in a strong challenge after the last, he couldn’t quite peg back Espoire.

Tom Scu at Newbury, has been a nice theme for this TVB season…

In addition to the Best bets, there were a few more for the Matrix, at Newbury.

The first batch were in the opener, where I wanted to take a position on Dark Flame - supported by the 2 race favourites.
I quite fancied Dark Flame - but the ground (and his price !) had gone by the time I issued the bets, so I backed off him.
He ran a fair race to finish fifth, without ever really threatening.
Fortunately however,Tinkers Hill Tommy provided excellent cover and came home  a good winner - meaning that it was a profitable race for the Matrix.

The only other bet for the Matrix was also profitable - and that was a bit more of a  surprise…
I took a small risk on Bourbon Beauty, simply because I felt her price was too big at 28/1.
She was half those odds come the off, which is always a good sign - and she promptly went on and made all !
She was never going to be a Best bet - but it was still nice to profit from her on the Matrix.

There wasn't a great deal to report from the other races of potential interest on the day.
The ground was softer at Kelso than I expected when I wrote the preview - and that invalidated a lot of what I said,.
Fortunately, I became aware that might be the case before I issued any of the days bets - so no damage was done (officially speaking).

Over at Newbury, I’d managed to narrow the only other race of interest down to 2 - and one of them won.
However, that was the 2/1 fav - and as you should know by now, I tend not to get involved at those kind of prices…

All in all though, not a bad day….


Sunday


Sunday was even quieter than Saturday - with just the 3 races of interest on the Ascot card.

However, I quite liked the look of 2 of them - and was happy enough issuing a Best bet in both.

Defi Sacre was the first of those to run…

It could be argued that he wasn’t particularly well handicapped - and that he was unproven over the trip.
However, my take was that he might improve for a step up in distance - and therefore could be sufficiently well handicapped to win.

And I was right :)

He tracked early leader, Awake at Midnight - and when the 2 of them kicked on down the side of the track, the race looked to lie between the pair.

Almost as quickly, it was clear that Defi was travelling all over his main rival - and he was trading heavily odds on IR, when he turned into the straight.

However, mindful of his unproven stamina, James Best hadn’t asked him any questions - and under a strong ride, Marracudja was closing.

There was a few moments, on the approach to the last, when a slight doubt entered the mind - but thankfully Best was indeed sitting on something - and when he asked, Defi responded.

It was another pleasing win !

The other Best bet on the day was Present Man in the veterans chase - and I really could have fancied him.

There were reasons for opposing all of his rivals - and I was pretty sure that a peak form Present Man would be very hard to beat.

The only niggle in the back of my mind, was how weak he had been in the betting on his latest run at Newbury.
If that hadn't happened (and even if he had run exactly the same race), then he would have been a 1pt bet today.

Thankfully however, I listened to the voice - and settled for just 0.5pt - as once again he was incredibly weak in the betting.

He drifted from 6.6 to 13.5 in the final few mins before the off (the ones that really count) - and that doesn’t happen with horses that are going to run big races.

In the race itself, he went off in front (there was limited competition) - but not long after half way he was under pressure.
He was soon tailed off - and pulled up…

I have to admit that I was a little suspicious of what happened - mainly because of the huge price drift.
However, the horses was retired post race - so whilst I still think aspects were a bit dodgy, I’ll leave most of my thoughts unsaid…

In the race itself, Singlefarmpayment wound back the clock and won his first race for 5 years.
His mark had dropped 16lb during that period and he was so well handicapped, he would have found it hard not to win (assuming he was physically sound)

Meanwhile Crosspark finished an honourable second - for the fifth time this season.
He’ll likely be nudge up the handicap a couple of pounds - thereby making it even less like he will win next season.

In addition to Present Man, I also saved on Royal Vacation for the Matrix - but he too was pulled up.

There was one final bet for the Matrix in the juvenile handicap.
I felt that Global Agreement was over-priced and took a small risk on him - however he was never sighted.
I also felt that Herbier was over-priced.
However, he wasn’t over-priced by as much with the bookmakers as he was on the exchanges - so I didn’t take a risk on him.

The prices for the Matrix bets, is an area I want to review before next season…

All this said, it was still another decent day - making quite a good weekend :)

TVB.

Sunday 28 March 2021

Mar 28th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Ascot

2:45
Global Agreement 1 unit win 25/1

3:20
Defi Sacre 5 units win 5/1

3:55
Present Man 5 units win 5/1
Royal Vacation 2 units win 10/1


Best bets

Ascot

3:20
Defi Sacre 0.5pt win 5/1

3:55
Present Man 0.5pt win 5/1
 



Compared to most of the days I deal with, today was relatively straightforward…

Just the 3 races to look at - with 2 of them the kind of races I thrive on (decent handicap chases, with reasonable sized fields).

I spent quite a bit of time going through both of the races of main interest - but it’s far more feasible to do that, when you’ve only got 14 runners to look at !

I can’t guarantee that I will have dropped on a winner - but I’m reasonably hopeful.

Here’s the rationale behind the bets…


Ascot

I re-watched videos of the main protagonists in the 2:45 - but I wasn’t overly taken by any of them.
It’s quite possible that one of them will improve for a move into handicap company - but I wouldn’t know which one it will be !
The form of Global Agreement’s run at Sandown is reasonable - and he did travel nicely until tiring, that day.
He’s no more than a hopeful suggestion - but at 25/1, I think he’s worth a small bet for the Matrix.

There are question marks over most of the runners in the 3:20 race.
Another Crick is the right favourite - and the one to beat. However, I can see Defi Sacre improving for todays step up in trip.
He tried it earlier in the season, in a strong race at Newbury - but fell at the third last (when still going well).
He’s been unlucky to find himself up against a series of tough opponents this season - and this race doesn’t look quite as strong.
I don’t think he has much in hand of his mark - but he probably doesn’t need to have (particularly if the step up in trip brings about some improvement).
Highest Sun is the other potential danger - but I think todays trip could be a bit short for him.

There are plenty I’m happy to oppose in the Veterans chase (3:55) - in fact, there are only 2 I’m really interested in supporting !
You’ve got to be prepared to forgive Present Man a poor run last time at Newbury - but I am !
He maybe needed the outing that day, after 3 months on the side-lines.
If that is the case, he will take a lot of beating today, under ideal conditions.
I can also see him getting an uncontested lead - and if that happens, I think he’ll win.
The one potential danger is Royal Vacation.
He’ll need to bounce back to form - but if he does, he’s sufficiently well handicapped to win.
He’s definitely worth covering for the Matrix.

Mar 28th - Preview for Ascot

 There’s a fair meeting at Ascot tomorrow afternoon - even if the ITV cameras aren’t covering it.


There are three class 2 races on the card - but one of them has only attracted 3 runners.
As a consequence, I’ve previewed the other 2 - along the the class 3 race that splits them.

Ascot is just about the best course in the country, for providing updates on the going and the weather conditions - and with no rain forecast in the next 24 hours, I don’t expect there to be a change from the current description of ‘good’…


Ascot

2:45


Juvenile handicap hurdles are never the easiest puzzles to solve - and I doubt this one will be any different !

I expected Siroco Jo to be installed favourite, on the back of his win at Newbury, 3 weeks ago.
He was quite impressive that day, leaving behind the form of his UK debut at Kempton.
The assumption was that the improvement had been brought about by him racing on a much quicker surface - and if that was the case, he could take a bit of beating tomorrow…
Iron Heart is disputing early favouritism with him, on the back of a win in an all-aged handicap at Newbury on the same day.
There must be a chance that the 4 year old weight allowance helped him win that race - and of the pair, I would favour Siroco Jet.
Tinahalla carries top weight in tomorrows race - but he probably deserves to do so
He has form which links him in with Sage Action - and that one ran really well in the Boodles at Cheltenham.
Clearly Tinahalla is vulnerable to a more lightly weighted opponent - but I would still expect him to run a big race.
First Impression hasn’t run for over 4 months - but presumably that’s because he has been kept away from winter ground.
All 3 of his runs in the autumn very decent - and if he returns in similar form, he could prove hard to beat.
Most of the others can be given a chance of sorts - but 2 of particular interest at bigger prices, at Herbier and Global Agreement.
The former is closely linked to Siroco Jo, on their run at Newbury.
Based on that form there should be little between them - though Siroco Jo does have  greater scope.
Global Agreement ran second to Hudson de Grugy, at Sandown last time - and the winner franked that form with a creditable run at Newbury this afternoon.
Global Agreement was dropped 5lb for the run - and whilst he was beaten a long way, it was desperate ground - and he loomed up looking to have every chance at the second last.
I could certainly see him out running his likely big price…

3:20

Awake at Dawn has been installed the early favourite for this, following his good run last time, when second to the revitalised My Way.
The winner was impressive that day - but there was a chance he was a very well handicapped horse, so Awake at Dawn probably lost little in going down by just a couple of lengths.
Awake at Midnight was raised 3lb for his efforts - but he has long looked as if he could be a fair bit better than his mark, so if he can build on that run, he could prove hard to beat.
Another Crick was very progressive in the 2018-19 season - but then had a couple of years on the sidelines.
He reappeared with a good run over hurdles in December - and backed that up when running fourth in a decent race at Warwick in February.
He again ran well at Newbury, 3 weeks ago - and provided he can again run to that level of form, he must have every chance tomorrow.
Highest Sun should be capable of winning off his current mark.
He’s been stepped up in trip for his 2 most recent outings - but that hasn’t really worked out.
Prior to that, he ran a very creditable fourth to Cap de Nord at Newbury.
That was over 2m6f - just a furlong further than he races over tomorrow.
If he can cope with the slightly shorter trip on slightly quicker ground, then he should go well.
Marracudja is stepping up in trip, having failed to really fire this season.
He did ‘win’ last time - but that was a walk over, so doesn’t really count !
Prior to that, he had come up short in a series of races - and unless the extra distance brings about improvement, it’s likely to be the same again tomorrow.
Defi Sacre has had a busy season - but has kept his form well.
He’s been running with credit against some useful horses - and if the step up in trip tomorrow unlocks a little improvement, he is another who could go close.

3:55

Unbelievably, this is the fifth leg of the 2021 veterans series - just where does the time go !

Whilst I can understand Crosspark heading the market based on his consistency - I’ll be a little surprised if he wins.
He’s a horse who has paid the price for a series of solid efforts this season - and he now finds himself 8lb higher than when runner up to Present Man at Chepstow in October.
By contrast, the winner will be running off the same mark tomorrow - I don’t think I need to tell you which horse should come out on top..!
That said, Present Man was a big disappointment on his most recent start, when unplaced at Newbury.
He looked to have ideal conditions that day - but barely lifted a hoof and ended up well beaten.
However, he was very weak in the market - so maybe something wasn’t quite right...
If he’s back on top form tomorrow, he should be the one to beat.
Activial has been installed the early second favourite following a return to form last time at Doncaster.
If he can build on that, then he should go close - though it’s a long time since he won (well over 2 years).
It’s double that since Singlefarmpayment won ! - and whilst he is potentially very well handicapped, he does appear to be in terminal decline.
It’s hard to understand why that is - but equally, it’s hard to argue with a series of progressively more disappointing runs.
It’s a similar story with West Approach.
He too seems to be in steep decline - and it would be very hard to support either of them, without first seeing at least a glimmer…
Royal Vacation showed nothing on his seasonal debut at Wincanton last month - but the handicapper is rushing him down the ratings - and he is now potentially very well handicapped.
That’s often the case for horses in these races - but if he does happen to bounce back to form, then he’s quite capable of winning this race.

Mar 27th - Bet/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets


Matrix bets

Newbury

2:20
Dark Flame 3 units win 14/1
Tinkers Hill Tommy 2 units win 5/1
Dubai Angel 2 units win 9/2

3:25
Bourbon Beauty 1 unit win 28/1

4:00
Espoir de Teillee 5 units win 9/2


Kelso

2:05
Taxmeifyoucan 5 units win 22/1
Sultans Pride 2 units win 8/1


Best bets

Newbury

4:00
Espoir de Teillee 0.5pt win 9/2


Kelso

2:05
Taxmeifyoucan 0.5pt win 22/1
 



Todays racing has a very different feel to it…

I could tell yesterday, that the early prices were just ‘guesses’ from the bookmakers - and it was little surprise to see that a number of the markets had been turned on their heads, by this morning.

The issue with that, is that it makes it impossible for me to figure out what I want to put up, until virtually the last moment.

Even then, I have little confidence that the prices won’t collapse as soon as I issue - and that’s certainly what happened with Taxmeifyoucan.

There is good reason why I only tip in the biggest races !

The other issue I faced today, was uncertainty with the ground.
I was pretty confident that I’d be dealing with ‘good’ ground at both courses: however there was rain yesterday - and the going certainly looked to be on the soft side at Newbury.

I can’t be sure how it will ride at Kelso - but the doubt has stopped me from suggesting as many bets as I had originally intended.

I’ve still ended up with a couple of Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.

Here’s the rationale behind them…


Newbury

I was pretty keen on taking a risk on Dark Flame in the opener, as I’m confident he has been layed out for the race.
However, he wants good ground - so the rain won’t have helped him: whilst his price crashed from 33/1 last night to 12/1 this morning !
In the circumstances, I felt obliged to back off and just cover him on the Matrix.
Additionally, I want to cover both Tinkers Hill Tommy and Dubai Angel, as they have attractive profiles and are slightly better prices than I expected.
Hopefully one of the three will come good (ideally, Dark Flame !)

Hooper has been taken out of the 2:50 on account of the softening ground.
However, the 3 I fancy most, still fill the top 3 places in the betting.
At the odds (5/1) Hudson de Grugy is moderately tempting - though in truth, it’s not a race I feel overly strongly about and I am therefore happy enough to just watch.

I also don’t feel overly strongly about the 3:25.
I’m certainly not drawn to any of the market leaders - and would rather taken a tiny risk on Bourbon Beauty, for the Matrix.
I really don’t understand why she is such a big price - and whilst she isn’t a confident bet, I think she has as good a chance as most of the runners, and therefore represents a bit of ‘value’ at the price on offer.

The defection of Barton Knoll from the 4:00 (again, on account of the ground), has persuaded me to make Espoir de Teillee a Best bet.
They were the pair I was most keen on - so the fact that only one of them is now running, has encouraged me to commit !
Kalooki could prove hard to beat, if he gets an uncontested lead - but hopefully, Boldmere will stop that from happening !
Grand Sancy was just too disappointing last time; whilst Mr Muldoon has been harshly treated for winning a poor race (though he could be of some interest, if his price continues to drift)


Kelso

I like Dandy Dan best in the 1:35 - but he wants decent ground (which he may or may not get) - and has been backed to the point where there is minimal value.
At 6/1, I would have gone with him - but not at 9/2…
Shantou Village is a big danger, if the ground is good; whilst Kittys Light is the other one who I feel has a very good chance.
Red Infantry was 3/1 fav in the early betting last night - but is now a 12/1 shot !
As I said in the introduction, that level of price volatility makes it very hard to get a handle on anything (arguably, he’s not a bad bet at the current price !)

Cap du Nord is another one who has been a massive drifter overnight, in the 2:05.
He was 7/2 on the opening show - but is now 8/1.
Again, it could be argued that he’s a fair bet at that price - though I would still prefer to side with those at the bottom of the handicap.
Mr Harp and Doyen Breed have found their way to the head of the market - and I can’t argue with that.
However, at their current prices, they don’t represent value.
Sultans Pride does at 8/1 - and he is worth covering for the Matrix.
However, the best bet in the race, is Taxmeifyoucan.
He is closely matched with Kaiser on Musselburgh form - but I think the stiffer Kelso track will play more to his strengths.
I also like the booking of 10lb claimer, Peter Coleman.
He’s had very few rides over the winter - but had a couple yesterday (to get his eye back in !) - and this one today.
He really should beat Kaiser - and yet is twice the price.
His last 2 runs can be ignored because the trips were too short. Back over 3+ miles today, I would expect him to run very well - and think he has a fair chance of winning what looks a very winnable race…

If the ground had been ‘good’, I would have taken a risk on Hasanabad in the 2:40.
I think he is capable of winning off his current mark - and the fact he is Sean Bowens only ride on the card, adds to his case.
However, I do think he would much prefer decent ground - so with a question mark over the conditions, I can’t get involved at the moment (though I may do so, on the Live thread).
Whatever, Across the Line would be a worry; whilst I’m quite surprised to see the support for Tommys Oscar (who I could see running well - but who I felt was beatable).
On balance there just feels a bit too much doubt, to be getting involved early…

Mar 27th - Preview for Newbury & Kelso

 

The NH racing tomorrow is relatively low key, competing as it is, with the start of the UK flat turf season - and the Dubai world cup.

There are a few reasonable races at both Newbury and Kelso - and their low profile at least means that most of the industry tipsters are looking elsewhere !
However, it also means that the markets are likely to be very fragile !!

I was expecting the ground to be ‘good’ at both courses - but they had some rain at Newbury this morning and watching the racing this afternoon, it was definitely on the soft side.

I suspect things will be similar at Kelso (that’s what the forecasts say) - though as always, time will tell…

Hopefully I’ll be able to find one or two bets - that you all have a chance of getting on.
As a reminder, I will be issuing after 10:00 in the morning.

Here are my early thoughts…


Newbury

2:20


The card opens up with a veterans handicap chase for conditional riders - which is quite an interesting mix !
It’s likely that a few of the horses will be almost as old some of the jockeys !!

Usually the fields for veterans races consist of a number of gnarled old timers, who are working their way down the handicap.
The trick is to figure out which ones are deteriorating more slowly than their mark is dropping.
That’s the case with most of the runners in this field - apart from 2…
Dubai Angel and Tinker Hill Tommy have only run over fences, under rules, 6 times between them - which is a very unusual situation.
More than that, both arrive on the back of recent wins and big hikes in the handicap.
I fully expect them to head the market - and they could prove tough to beat.
However, there is also the chance that their profiles will see them get over-backed…
Most of the other runners can be given a chance based on their best form - which is often the case, in this kind of race…
Cyclop has been in good form this season - and his stable switch 2 runs back doesn’t seem to have unduly affected him.
He sets a fair standard for the race.
He finished well ahead of Orchardstown Cross when the pair clashed at Plumpton in January - and should confirm the form on 7lb worse terms, for 20+ lengths.
That said, Orchardstown Cross ran well in some reasonable races earlier in the season - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve, back on spring ground.
Valadom finished third in a better race over the course, 3 weeks ago - and as with Cyclop, I would expect him to again run well.
Vice et Virtue really should reverse Doncaster form from December, with Twojayslad.
There was only 2 lengths between them that day - and Vice et Virtue will be 10lb better off tomorrow.
That said, whether it is good enough to see either home in front, is a different matter…
Dark Flame was well beaten in that race - and also on his only subsequent run at Sandown.
However, his handicap rating is tumbling as a consequence, and he will enjoy tomorrows better ground.
Based on old form, he would have a definite chance (though in fairness, that’s true for many of them !).

2:50

As with the previous race, there are a couple of runners in this race, with a different profile to the rest - and that’s likely to see them well backed - and also make them tough to beat…

Hudson de Grugy and Good Ball are both 4 year olds - and as such, receive an 8lb weight allowance from all of their rivals.
That strikes me as a lot - particularly at this time of year.
In terms of their form, then it’s hard to assess. However, that is true for most of the runners in the race…
Hudson de Grugy was a good winner last time, on his handicap debut at Sandown.
He hacked up by 17 lengths, looking far better than his opening mark of 122.
How much better, is hard to say - but the 8lb rating rise will effectively be offset by the age allowance, so he still could be nicely handicapped.
Good Ball will be making his handicap debut, having finished runner up to Gowel Road on his most recent start.
That one was sent off at just 12/1 for the County hurdle, a week ago - so the form looks quite strong.
Again, an opening mark of 131 doesn’t appear overly harsh - particularly when taking into account the age allowance.
Hooper looks best of the older horses.
He was narrowly beaten by Nightboattoclyro 3 runs back - and that one is now rated 16lb higher.
Hooper has won his 2 subsequent outings - but finds himself only 5lb higher.
That suggests he could be well handicapped.
One True King ran 2 big races at Cheltenham in the autumn - and whilst he’s not run quite so well on his 2 most recent starts, a return to better ground could easily see him bounce back to his best.
Half cases can be made for the other 4 runners - though the race does look more likely to be won by one of the runners covered above.

3:25

Whilst this is arguably the best NH race of the day (it’s the only class 1 race) - it really doesn’t appeal as a betting contest.
With 13 relatively unexposed mares - a number of whom are likely to have been targeted at the race - it’s very hard to assess with any confidence.

Nicky Henderson has a good record in the contest - and he is responsible for 4 of the runners.
Based on jockey bookings, Lilly Pedlar appears to be his best chance of success this year.
She will be making her handicap debut, following 3 runs in novice events.
She will need to take a step forward from her achievements thus far - but could easily do that.
In terms of form in the book, then Misty Whiskey just about sets the standard.
She finished a 4 length third in a grade 2 race at Sandown on her most recent outing. However, the race was run on desperate ground, so she will face a very different test tomorrow.
Little River Bay was sent off favourite that day - but disappointed badly and was pulled up.
I think it’s safe to ignore that run - but even doing so, she appears to have plenty on her plate, under top weight.
Marada looks quite interesting for Dan Skelton, on the back of a career best effort when winning at Huntingdon 3 weeks ago; whilst Kilmington Rose is interesting for Paul Nichols, making her handicap debut off a mark of just 114.
Rose of Arcadia is the early race favourite, primarily because she retains more potential than most of her rivals.
She is also owned by the Cheveley Park stud and their recent purchases suggest she is likely to end up a fair bit better than her mark of 120.
Bourbon Beauty looks the most interesting of those at big prices.
She’s shown some promise in 4 runs in novice hurdles - and her opening mark of 114 appears workable…

4:00

Only 6 will go to post for this - but a chance can be given to each of them…

Kalooki and Mr Muldoon are both still novices - and so have probably got the greatest scope for improvement.
Kalooki looked a really good recruit to chasing, when winning over the course on his seasonal debut in November.
He didn’t look quite so good next time, when beaten 7 lengths by Next Destination.
However the winner finished runner up at Cheltenham last week, so it was clearly still a decent effort.
Kalooki has been well beaten in his 2 subsequent races - but he raced with enthusiasm last time at Ascot, before weakening.
That was over 3 miles, so dropping him back in trip tomorrow looks a sensible move - whilst a mark of 142 is perfectly fair, based on the run behind Next Destination.
Mr Muldoon has won 2 of his 3 races this season - and appears to be improving.
That said, both races were at Sedgefield - and a 9lb hike for winning a 4 runner race last time, does seem a little harsh…
He will face much stronger opposition tomorrow - and it remains to be seen whether he is up to the task.
Grand Sancey was a big disappointment 3 weeks ago, when he was well fancied
for the Greatwood Gold cup, over tomorrows course and distance.
He never featured in the race and based on that run, he has no chance of beating Barton Knoll.
He was relatively unfancied (sent off at 28/1) for the same contest - but was still bang in contention, until weakening over the final couple of fences.
That was his first run for 3 months, so if he has come on from it, he should have a decent chance off a mark 1lb lower.
Espoir de Tellee bounced back to form on his most recent outing when winning at Warwick.
That was a fair race - and he won it well. He must therefore have a good chance tomorrow, off a mark just 4lb higher.
Boldmere is the final runner in the race.
He’s been out of form so far this season - but as a result he’s now not badly handicapped.
The fitting of first time blinkers is an interesting move - and back on better ground, dropped in trip, I would expect him to try and make all (though he may face competition for the lead from Kalooki).


Kelso

1:35


This is the first of 3 reasonable handicaps on the Kelso card…

Red Infantry has been installed the early favourite on the back of his last time out win in a similar handicap at Doncaster.
He was very game that day, bouncing back to form under a front running ride and holding on by a head.
However, he got a 5lb rating rise for the win - whilst the 5lb claimer who rode him that day, won’t be on board tomorrow.
In short, he’ll have his work cut out if he is to double up…
Kittys Light was a fast finishing third in the Badger beers chase at Wincanton in November.
He’s not been since much since then - but that’s because he has a preference for decent ground.
A couple of runs in bumpers, plus a recent spin over hurdles, should ensure he is spot on for his return to fences tomorrow.
Off a mark just 3lb higher than at Wincanton, he looks the one to beat…
Claud and Goldie won well over the course last time - but a 5lb rise means that he’s now off a career high mark.
As a 12 year old, that’s a big ask…
Shantou Village was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time, in a veterans chase at Newbury. However, he unseated his rider at the fifth fence…
Brian Hughes takes over in the saddle tomorrow - and someone clearly believes he is very well handicapped.
If he can get round safely, he should go very close.
Dandy Dan is another who wants decent ground - and he’s not been seen since November.
However, I very much doubt his fitness will be an issue - and it’s interesting that he’s the only runner on the card for both Kim Bailey and David Bass.
If he comes in for market support, I’d expect him to run a big race.
Crixus’s Escape is the outsider of the field - but would be of interest if the recent wind op and first time tongue tie, have the desired effect…

2:05

I’d be reasonably happy to split this race in two: those carrying more than 11st and those carrying less - and if I did that, then I’d much rather be with the low weights !

Generally, the market would agree with me - the exception being market leader Cap de Nord.
It is true that he is quite attractively handicapped, based on his recent chase form - however, he’s only ‘quite’ well handicapped - plus he’s been very busy over the past few months.
That will catch up with him, sooner rather than later - and coupled with the change in discipline, he could be worth taking on…
Mr Harp is one of the interesting light weights.
He ran a good second in a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick on his penultimate outing - before filling the same spot behind Alaphilippe at Haydock, last time.
The quality of the opposition he faced in both of those races, was better than he will be facing tomorrow - and off a mark of 126, he must have a big chance.
Doyen Breed has run well in 3 lower grade handicaps this season - winning one and finishing runner up in the other 2.
He’s on an upward curve and could well be competitive in this higher grade.
Whilst Sultans Pride won comfortably at Doncaster last time - and could still be fairly handicapped off a mark 6lb higher.
Kaizer and Taxmeifyoucan, have been virtually dismissed in the betting - but I think both can be given a chance.
They clashed at Musselburgh in February - and Taxmeifyoucan came out on top by a neck.
Kaizer looked to have that race won that day, until being run down in the shadows of the post and should have every chance of gaining his revenge with a 1lb pull in weights.
That said, Taxmeifyoucan will be ridden by a 10lb claimer tomorrow - so that may  swing things back in his favour !
To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice…

2:40

I suspect that Dubai Days will be withdrawn from this race, as she ran (unplaced) at Musselburgh this afternoon…

Regardless, Across the Line looks very much the one to beat on his handicap debut for the Skeltons.
He was a good second at Doncaster on his most recent start - and for all it’s not easy to get a handle on the value of that form, an opening mark of 126 doesn’t look overly harsh.
It’s interesting that Harry is riding at Kelso rather than Newbury (where he would have had a good ride in the mares hurdle) - and it strikes me that Across the Line is the main reason for that.
I suspect he will prove had to beat…
Without him in the race, I would be quite keen on Hasanabad.
He caught my eye on his penultimate outing at Newbury - and then ran well on ground that wouldn’t have suited, in the Imperial Cup.
Back on good ground, I would expect him to run a big race - and it adds to his case that he is Sean Bowens only ride on the card.
Tommys Oscar has been in good form recently - and should again run well: by contrast, Christopher Wood now looks a tough high in the handicap, following his win at Musselburgh and is likely to need to drop a little in the weights before he picks up the winning thread again.
In theory, Cracking Destiny could be very well weighted, on only his second ever run in a handicap hurdle.
He finished fifth in the Grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree, in October, off a mark of 138 - but will run off a mark of 122 tomorrow.
That means he is potentially very well handicapped - if he is tuned on his return  from an absence.
However, it is more likely that he will be using this race as a pipe opener before returning to fences next time.
He should be watched in the betting pre-race - and if he’s weak, watched in the race, with his next run in mind…


Mar 20th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets


Matrix bets

Uttoxeter

3:35
Final Nudge 5 units win 14/1


Best bets

Uttoxeter

3:35
Final Nudge 0.5pt win 14/1



There’s some reasonable racing this afternoon: but unfortunately, I didn’t have the time/brain power to do it justice !

I normally start studying for a Saturday, on Thursday lunchtime - but unsurprisingly, that wasn’t the case this week !

I did have a quick look at the declarations, but it was 5:00pm yesterday, before I was able to get down to any serious study.

That just didn’t leave me sufficient time to check out things are thoroughly as I like (watching videos of past performances etc).

It also didn’t help that the quality of the racing is a few notches down, on what we’ve been treated to this week.
I have the form for most of those competing at Cheltenham, stored in my head - but that’s not the case for many of the horses running today.

As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just the one suggested bet.

I do quite fancy it - though it didn’t help the price, that Andy Holding tipped it literally minutes before me !
I won’t bang on further about the frustrations of industry tipster ruining prices !

Here’s the rationale behind the bet - and my thoughts on the other televised races.


Kempton

I was half tempted to take a chance on Onthefrontfoot in the 2:05.
I can see there being a pace war - and if that happens, it should suit the hold up horses.
Onthefrontfoot is likely to race behind the pace, so he could benefit from the way the pans out.
He’s also the only horse that Donald McCain has taken on the long journey to Kempton…
As 13/2, he’s a fair bet - if not quite a Best one !

It’s a similar story with Vive le Roi in the 2:40.
He’s the only confirmed front runner in the race - and therefore could get an uncontested lead.
He’s performed well in the past over course and distance - and from a higher mark.
The issue is that’s he’s up against a few progressive, potential improvers.
I’d expect him to run well - and he certainly looks a good back to lay IR option - but not quite a Best bet.

I like Smarty Wild best in the 3:15 race - but don’t see any value in a price of 4/1.
It looks a pretty open race - in which most of the runners can be given a chance.
At a big price, Domain De L’isle could be worth a tiny bet.
He’s well handicapped if a breathing op has sorted him out.
If he comes in for any support, the money could be worth following.


Uttoxeter

There’s too much guesswork required to get involved with the opener.
Theme Tune is the obvious one - but if he is going to win, I would expect him to be well supported in the market.
At the moment, he’s a significant drifter (out to 6/1 on the exchanges)…

Ask Me Early is moderately tempting in the 2:25 - but you would have to be prepared to forgive a dreadful run, last time.
A first time tongue tie hints at the reason for him running so badly - but I’m always a bit nervous about supporting horses who may have breathing issues.
Aside from him, then St Barts is the one who appeals most - but a price of 9/4, doesn’t…

Wilde About You could be a graded horse in a handicap (3:00).
He’s got quite a high rating - but may well have the class to defy it.
However, he’s a 3/1 shot - and that leaves no margin for error (though I wouldn’t be surprised if his price shortened).
Rockadenn is the possible alternative, as he doesn’t look badly handicapped.
However, he does look quite quirky, so you’d want a bit in the price to compensate for that…

The eagle eyed amongst you, will have noticed that Final Nudge didn’t appear in the preview for the 3:35 !
However, when I was watching replays for the race last night, I spotted him…
He most recent run was at Wincanton, in the race won by Time to Get Up.
He’s the favourite for todays race, so I was just double checking the strength of his form.
He won well at Wincanton last time (which is what I recalled) - but turning in, Final Nudge was right behind him and travelling just as strongly.
Considering it was his first run for a year - and his first ever run for Fergal O’Brien, I think it’s reasonable to assume he will improve for it.
He can run from a mark 2lb lower today: Whilst the favourite will be 8lb higher.
A 10lb turnaround - along with improved fitness - should definitely see him get much closer - and may even enable him to reverse the form.
He’s a 12 year old - so possibly in decline. However he’s run well in this race in the past - and finished third in a Welsh National - and both of those runs were off marks significantly higher than he races off today (the latter, nearly a stone higher).
I certainly think he’s a decent bet to beat the favourite, this afternoon…

Mar 20th - Preview for Kempton & Uttoxeter

Needless to say, I’m a bit knackered after the past 4 days, so this preview will be relatively short and snappy !


If I can find any bets in the morning, I look to issue them just after 9:00…


Kempton

2:05

There are a number of potential front runners in this - and that could make things tricky for all of them…
Zoffee in one - and whilst he’s a horse I like, he made a race ending mistake when taken on for the lead last time, at Doncaster.
Early favourite, Doukarov, is another who like to force the pace.
He was a good winner at Leicester last time, but was raised 10lb for that - and steps up in class tomorrow.
Peterborough is the third potential pace angle - and he is returning from a winter break.
A strong pace could set things up for a finisher - and Eskendash possibly fits the bill.
He too is returning from a break - and has also undergone wind surgery.
Onthefrontfoot has potential - and has been sent a long way to contest this.
Neither Havana Hermano or Fairway Freddy can be discounted - though their claims aren’t overly compelling.

2:40

Nightboattoclyro will be aiming for a 4 timer in this - and there’s a fair chance he will pull it off.
He’s only 6lb higher than when winning at Wetherby last month - and Jack Tudors 3lb claim effectively halves that.
Breffniboy racked up a 4 timer himself, earlier in the season - and whilst he has been beaten the last twice, he’s lost little in defeat.
He ran particularly well over course and distance, on his penultimate outing - and off a mark just 2lb higher tomorrow, he should be right in the mix.
Didtheyleaveuoutto is doubtlessly well handicapped - but he can’t jump !
He’s finished on the floor on his last 3 runs over hurdles - and you couldn’t back him with any confidence. If he jumps round cleanly, he will probably win - but it’s a big ‘if’.
Vive le Roi ran well at Newbury last time - and he should run well again tomorrow, off a 2lb lower mark and over a slightly shorter trip.
Whilst Vorashann could be interesting on his return from a winter break.
He was sent off a very sort priced favourite for a 4 year old handicap at Chepstow in October, but disappointed badly - however, he may have simply been feeling the effects of a run 7 days earlier...

3:15

Falco Blitz and My Way head the betting for this - but both look a little vulnerable off 9lb higher marks, for recent wins.
That said, both are obviously in good form - and Falco Blitz in particular, looks a progressive horse.
I had a sneaking fancy for Smarty Wild at Cheltenham on Wednesday - but he was taken out of the race.
It’s therefore interesting to see him running here…
He won well over course and distance, in January - and must have a good chance tomorrow, off a mark just 6lb higher.
Mellow Ben hasn’t got home the last twice, having been given very forceful rides over further.
I suspect he will try and make all again tomorrow - and he is weighted to go close.
Vinnie the Hoddie returns after a winter break - but had some good form in the autumn. It would be no surprise to see him run well.
Domain de Lisle could be quite interesting - if his recent wind surgery has had the desired effect.
He’s certainly potentially well handicapped - though hasn’t shown a strong preference for decent ground.


Uttoxeter

1:50


Theme Tune looks the obvious one in this, on his handicap debut after 2 wins in novice races.
It’s impossible to know if he is well weighted - but an opening mark of 125 looks fair.
The betting tomorrow will doubtless reveal a bit more !
Saint Dalina has run well the last twice, in relatively strong contests.
There’s no reason why he shouldn’t run well again tomorrow.
I’d Better Go Now won well at Perth in September, before twice running poorly in better races.
He’s now back on a mark just 4lb higher than the one he won from - and if he’s ready to do himself justice after a 100 day break, he could go close.
 
2:25

This is always a good race - with decent novices often targeted at it.
I suspect that the case with St Barts.
He was impressive when winning a novice handicap at Newbury, in December - and could well be up to defying an 8lb higher mark.
Ask me Early was really impressive, in winning a couple of novice handicaps at Chepstow, but then disappointed, when a short priced fav for an open handicap at Sandown.
He will be sporting a first time tongue tie tomorrow - suggesting he may have had a breathing issue. If that has been resolved, he could be hard to beat.
Eclair Surf won well at Sandown last month - and a 5lb rise for that, doesn’t look overly harsh.
Young Wolf has been pitched in deep, for his last 3 runs and whilst he’s shown very little, he has been dropped 7lb as a result. A return to form wouldn’t be a massive surprise.

3:00

Wilde About Oscar is a decent novice - but whether he’s up to defying a rating of 146 in open company, remains to be seen.
He won well at Exeter last time, having disappointed on his previous outing in the Grade 1 Challow hurdle.
However, the very fact he ran in a grade 1 event (and was well backed for it), suggests he may be better than a handicapper.
Rockadenn did really well to win at Taunton last time, considering he raced far too freely throughout the race.
In the circumstances, a 5lb rise seems perfectly reasonable.
Mint Condition’s 2 most recent races having been in grade 2 events.
He was an unlucky loser of the first one at Warwick: but then disappointed when a short priced favourite at Haydock. He’ll need to bounce back from that…

3:35

I suspect Time to get up has been layed out for this…
He was ante-post favourite for the Kim Muir at Cheltenham - and I was a little surprised when he wasn’t declared for that race. Clearly connections had this contest in mind !
He was really impressive when winning his most recent race at Wincanton - and could easily defy an 8lb higher mark tomorrow.
However, he’s already 5/2 in a 20 runner handicap - and he’s not even trained in Ireland !
Screaming Colours is - and he looks the main danger.
He was runner up to The Big Dog in in the Punchestown Grand National trial, on his most recent outing - and I’m a little surprised to see that he will be running off a mark only 5lb higher tomorrow.
He looks to have a very solid chance…
Highland Hunter has been targeted at this race by Paul Nichols - but a mark of 145 looks plenty high enough.
Similarly, Achille will have his work cut out to defy a mark 4lb higher than when just run out of thing at Haydock, last month.
Captain Drake was runner up in this race 12 months ago, off a mark just 2lb lower than tomorrow - so he must have every chance of going close.
Whilst The two Amigos is another who should run well - though probably isn’t quite well enough handicapped to win…

Thursday 25 March 2021

Review of the Cheltenham festival - Mar 16th-19th

 Apologies for the delay in producing the Cheltenham review.


I really was in no state to write it over the weekend: whilst there were a few things  I had to catch up on yesterday.
Hopefully it will prove worth the wait..!


Following 10mm of rain on Sunday night, the suggestion was that the festival would start on ground softer than had been expected…

I’d thought long and hard about my strategy for the official tips at the meeting.

Over the past few years, more and more races have been won by either the blindingly obvious - or the unpickable !
Neither of these types are ideal for a form student, like myself - who also aims to secure value prices...

As a consequence, I’d made the decision, to keep the Best bets light - though I did expect to use the Matrix to prove more extensive coverage in many of the races.

As things turned out, then I feel my strategy with the Best bets was fine - though I didn’t deploy the Matrix quite as much as I should have.
In part, this was because the prices available at 8:30 frequently didn’t represent value.
It’s an area I need to look at more closely, as the Matrix was never designed to operate with early bookmaker prices (but this is how I've ended up using it).

In terms of my decision to back off the Best bets, then that was vindicated immediately, with winners at 4/9 and 80/1 on day 1.
It was always unlikely that I would suggest either of those as Best bets !


Tuesday

My original intention on day 1, was to only suggest Remastered as a Best bet.
However the early prices, persuaded me to also take a chance on Sage Advice in the Boodles and Epatante in the Champion hurdle…

Epatante was the first of the 3 to run.

With the 7lb sex allowance, I really did think that the Champion was likely to be won by one of the mares - and at 6/4 Honeysuckle and 4/1 Epatante, there was only one way I could go.

In the race itself, Honeysuckle travelled nicely behind the pace; whereas Epatante never seemed to be moving easily.
Turning for home, Rachael Blackmore kicked Honeysuckle on and quickly had the race in safe keeping.
Meanwhile Epatante could only stay on for a distant third…

The fact that Epatante finished 3 lengths behind Sharjah this year, having beaten him by almost the same distance 12 months ago, suggests she didn’t run to her best (and that is how it looked in the race).
However, even if she had, I suspect she would have struggled to beat a much improved winner.

Epatante was a good bet - but a losing one…

Sage Advice was also a good bet in the Boodles.

It wasn’t a race that I intended to get heavily involved with, but I was drawn in by the price on him (which I felt under-estimated his chance, by quite some margin).

He travelled sweetly through the race, and jumping the last, still had every chance (he traded at almost even money in running).

However, his stamina gave out on the climb up the final hill - and ultimately he faded into sixth place.

It was a reminder (not that one was needed !) of just how hard it is to win these big field Cheltenham handicaps.

Remastered was the final Best bet on the day.

I suggested him ante-post, at quite a big price - but felt he was worth supporting again on the day, following the rain (which should have been in his favour)

However, it was clear long before the final race, that the ground wasn’t anywhere near as soft as has been expected - and after making the running to the home straight, he was swamped for speed by the 3 market leaders, on the run to the second last.

He ended up finishing fifth - though I could see him picking up one of the Nationals (maybe Scottish), if he gets softer ground…

In addition to the Best bets, there were also a number of bets for the Matrix.

Not so Sleepy, Curious Bride and Snow Leopardess, provided support for the 3 Best bets - but none managed to trouble the judge.

I also took on the Ultima handicap, with a more conventional Matrix, splitting stakes across 4 horses.
That was more of a success, with my main bet in the race, Vintage Cloud, coming home a decisive winner from one of the savers (Happygolucky).
The winner had a morning price of 25/1 - but an SP of 28/1 - and a BSP of 50 !
Showing yet again, that the best way to play the Matrix, is via the exchanges (ideally, close to the off).

In the other 3 races on the day, Appreciate It and Shishkin were both short priced winners; whilst Black Tears was one that got away…

I nearly covered her in the Matrix - but wasn’t convinced she’d be able to beat the favourite, Concertista.
I may well have been right - but under a great ride from Jack Kennedy, she pounced late and managed to beat the favourite by a head.

That’ll teach me for not taking a risk !


Wednesday

Day 2 of the festival was always going to be the quietest of the days, from a betting perspective.

The races weren’t there to get heavily involved in - and I ended up with just the one Best bet on the day, supported by a few for the Matrix.

Guard you Dreams was the Best bet - and he was very popular in the market.

He’d been a 20/1 shot a week before the race (I considered him for an ante-post play); 14/1 the day before - but was only 9/1 by the time I was able to suggest him

Even that price had evaporated by the off - and he was sent off at just 7/1.

In the race itself, he ran a little disappointingly, and never got within hailing distance of Heaven Help Us.
She had been a brilliant winner for us at the Dublin Racing festival - and whilst I expected her to again run well, I thought she might struggle off a higher mark, in a much stronger contest.

However, she relished the challenge - leading almost throughout, before bounding up the hill.

With hindsight, I should have covered her in the Matrix - but instead I opted for 3 others - none of whom were ever sighted…

I fully covered one other race for the Matrix - the Grand Annual.

My original plan had been to make Moonlighter a Best bet in the race - but he got tipped elsewhere the night before and that destroyed his price.
As a consequence, I just covered him in the Matrix - along with 4 others.

Unfortunately, it was not a race that I’d read particularly well.

Moonlighter could never get to the lead - and was eventually pulled up.
On the Slopes did best of my selections in the race.
He still held every chance approaching the last - but struggled to get up the hill and ultimately finished a well beaten fourth.

There were Matrix bets in 2 other races.

Rouge Vif ran really poorly on ground that should have suited in the Champion chase.
I expected better from him.

Whilst, I decided to take on the 2 market leaders in the bumper - on account of their prices.

However, they came in for continued support throughout the day - and by the off, it looked quite clear that I’d made the wrong call !

And so it proved, with second fav Sir Gerhard, winning under a good front running ride from Rachael Blackmore - from favourite, Kilcruit.
2 of my selections filled the next 2 places - but there was no consolation in that…

In the other races on the day: Bob Olinger and Monkfish won the 2 opening contests, at similar prices to those of Appreciate It and Shishkin, the day before.

Whilst Tiger Roll bounced back to form to take the cross country race.

With hindsight, I maybe could have taken a risk on him, as I did feel that he was the only feasible danger to the favourite, Easysland.
I fully expected the favourite to win - but at even money and 5/1 respectively it wouldn’t have been hard to make a value based call for Tiger Roll.


Thursday

By contrast to day 2, day 3 was the main betting day of the week - and with hindsight (and maybe foresight !) I should have made it even bigger…

I suggested 4 Best bets on the day - and was quite keen on them all.
I also suggested a number of Matrix bets - both to support the Best bets and to tackle one of the other races on the card.
If I’d been a bit braver with the Matrix bets, the afternoon would have gone a little better…

Come on Teddy was the first Best bet to run - in the Pertemps final.

I quite liked him - and that discouraged me from covering too extensively, with the Matrix.
However, as I had witnessed on Tuesday with Sage Advice, it’s quite easy to pick a horse that runs well in a big handicap - but doesn’t win.

Come on Teddy ran well - but he was given an exaggerated waiting ride and ultimately couldn’t make it to the front.
He finished a creditable third - a few lengths ahead of Everglow, the only horse I did cover, in the Matrix.

If I’d used the Matrix more extensively, then I may well have included the winner, Mrs Milner - as she was on my original short-list for the race.
However, the bookmakers don’t pay out on ‘if’s..!

Mister Fisher was the second Best bet on the day - and on ground that had moved in his favour, I was quite keen on him.

However, he was unlucky to bump into a horse at the very top of his game.

If I’m honest, I’d never been completely convinced by Allaho - but given an aggressive front running ride by Rachael Balckmore, he jumped from fence to fence and simply destroyed the opposition.

It’s quite possible the Mister Fisher was the second best horse in the race - but Allaho’s jumping put him under so much pressure, he was forced into jumping mistakes.

He managed to survive a couple - but they ultimately got the better of him and he was pulled up.
I did cover on Chris’s Dream - but he was never in the race and was also pulled up.

It was an awesome performance from Allaho - probably the most impressive of the entire festival.

Lisnagar Oscar was the next Best bet to run - but as with Mister Fisher, he found the obstacles getting in his way !

He was in third place and still going easily, when he got the seventh wrong - and paid the price, taking a heavy fall.

That left the way for Flooring Porter to go on and record an impressive all the way win.

It was a frustrating result for me, as the winner had been on my list of Matrix bets, until moments before I issued.
These things do happen - but that doesn’t make them any less irritating ! (particularly as I’d put up savers against all of the days other Best bets)…

Hold the Note was the final Best bet to run - and as with Come on Teddy, he ran well.
He never really looked like winning - but did manage to stay on for fourth place.

Thankfully, unlike with Come on Teddy, I put up a couple of savers for the Matrix - and one of them was the winner Mount Ida.

The other was third placed Shantou Flyer - so ended up with a 1,3,4 from my 3 suggested bets in the race - which is quite impressive, in a 21 runner handicap !

There was one more race on the day, in which I suggested bets for the Matrix.

That was the Plate - and I suggested 3, headed by The Shunter…

In search of a £100K bonus, he was backed as if defeat was out of the question (9/4 fav in 21 runner handicap !) - and duly came home a comfortable winner.
Coole Cody was another suggested bet for the Matrix - and he ran really well to finish fourth at a big price.

In the 2 other races on the day:
Chantry House took advantage of Envoi Allens fall, to win the Marsh chase; whilst Tellmesomethinggirl justified good market support, to take the mares novice hurdle.

All in all, despite 2 wins for the Matrix, it felt like a day on which I should have done better…


Friday

The final day of the festival - and with the action dropping off significantly after the Gold cup, I issued just 4 Best bets on the day.

2 of them were the first ‘each way’ bets that I’d issued all season.
However the strong place markets at Cheltenham made that a feasible option.

They were both due to run in the County Hurdle - and with profiles which weren’t going to be overly attractive to the majority of punters, they were both put in at prices much bigger than I felt should have been the case.

Of the pair, I preferred the chances of Le Patriote - but he was a non runner, meaning that all hopes were with Petit Mouchoir.

And what a race he ran !

In the front rank through out, he lost his place on the run to the final flight - but then stayed on strongly up the hill to reclaim second place.
He was never getting to the winner but it was still a huge performance - and fully justified my decision to go EW with him, rather than take my normal approach of also backing a saver.

Streets of Doyen was the second Best bet to run.

He became the first Best bet of the season to be advised at SP.
His price had been crushed overnight - and I fully expected it to drift out on the day (as so often happens).

And that is exactly how it turned out: 7/1 in the morning, he eventually was sent off at 10/1 - with 14+ available on the exchanges a few minutes before the off.

In the race itself, he ran well - staying on to claim third place.
However, he was no match for the winner, Vanillier - who I could definitely have been interested in, if I’d been able to spend a little more time on the race…

The final Best bet of the day - and indeed the festival - came in the Gold cup itself…

I had decided that A Plus Tard was the most likely winner of the race - but the success of Rachael Blackmore earlier in the week, meant that he was very popular and his price became too short.

I felt there was little between him and his stablemate Minella Indo - so at 3 times the price, the latter became the selection.

In the race itself, Jack Kennedy gave Minella Indo a text book ride - sitting in just behind the leaders.
Meanwhile Rachael Blackmore positioned A Plus Tard a couple of lengths further back - and ultimately, that probably made the difference.

At the line, there was just over a length between the pair - with Minella Indo demonstrating why you always have to take the value option.

It’s a game of fine margins - and whilst Rachael Blackmore had been magnificent all week - it was Jack Kennedys brilliance that won the day in the big one.

Things were always likely to peter out from that point on - and that’s what happened...

I suggested a couple of other bets for the Matrix in 2 of the subsequent races - but neither It came to Pass or Cabaret Queen, managed to trouble the judges.

In the days 2 other races: then with his 3 main rivals disappointing, Quixilos was an easy winner of the Triumph; whilst the final race of the meeting was taken by Galopin des Champs.

If I’d suggested a bet in the race, then it may well have been him - but the race looked a bit of a lottery and I was starting to tire by that point !

It had been a very long 4 days..!

TVB

Sunday 21 March 2021

Mar 19th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Cheltenham

1:55
Le Patriote 2 units win 50/1
Le Patriote 2 units place 12/1
Petite Mouchoir 2 units win 33/1
Petite Mouchoir 2 units place 8/1
You Raise me up 2 units win 8/1

2:30
Streets of Doyen 5 units win SP (FP 8/1, MP 6/1)

3:05
MInella Indo 5 units win 8/1

3:40
It Came to Pass 2 units win 8/1

4:15
Cabaret Queen 1 unit win 25/1


Best bets


Cheltenham

1:55
Le Patriote 0.25pt EW 50/1
Petite Mouchoir 0.25pt EW 33/1


2:30
Streets of Doyen 0.5pt win SP (FP 8/1, MP 6/1)

3:05
MInella Indo 0.5pt win 8/1

 

 It was disappointing that none of yesterdays Best bets managed to win.
2 ran well and were placed: whilst the other 2 made race ending mistakes.
It happens…

It was also annoying that I took Flooring Porter out of the Matrix and reduced stakes on Mount Ida - literally moments before I issued !
That was simply human error (with me being the human making the mistake !).

If I’m honest, I think my approach to the bets this week, has been poor.
I know that Best bet method (old tips) doesn’t really work at Cheltenham - which Is part of the reason why I introduced the Matrix.
However rather than giving the Matrix free reign, I’ve compromised it in the same way as the Best bets !

My only excuses, are that I’ve barely had time to think all week (and thus decide on the most appropriate bets) - and the old chestnut of the prices having been crushed by the time I tip.

I’ll obviously need to think about my approach - though that can wait for another day - I just wanted to briefly share my thoughts with you all…


As far as today is concerned, then I’ve tackled things slightly differently.

I’m keen on a couple in the Country hurdle, at very big prices - and whilst I’ve resisted putting anything up EW so far this season, the place markets on the exchanges are strong enough for it to be an option and I’d rather back them to place, than back anything else in the field, to win.

I’ve also suggested backing one horse at SP - more on that below...

Here’s the thinking behind todays bets (and none bets !)


Cheltenham

I toyed with suggesting Tritonic in the opener, because it can be argued he’s value at 7/2.
He was a 2/1 shot this time last week - but has been a big drifter.
I suspect that is mainly because he’s not trained in Ireland - and if that is the case, then he is a value bet !
However, the reality is, he faces a couple of strong opponents - and a couple of potentially dangerous unknowns ones - whilst the strength of his hurdling form is unproven.
If he was running tomorrow, I wouldn’t make him a Best bet - so he shouldn’t be a Best bet today (and indeed, isn’t !)
 
Needless to say there are plenty who can be given a chance in the County hurdle (1:55) - but I particularly like the profile of a couple of old timers…
Both Petite Mouchoir and Le Patriote are potentially well handicapped (very well handicapped in the case of the latter) and whilst neither are improving, I also don't believe they are In decline.
Petite Mouchoir was beaten just 5 lengths in a Grade 1 at Christmas, by the Champion hurdle runner up; he was also beaten just 4 lengths in the Galway hurdle last summer, when running off the same mark as today.
Le Patriote recorded his second best ever RPR just 3 runs ago; whilst he won the Swinton hurdle 2 years ago, off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
Both horses will love the quickening ground - with the icing on the cake being that both will be ridden by talented 7lb claimers.
Both are seriously over-priced - and whilst it is possible that younger legs might just get the better of them, I would expect them to run really well.
At the odds on offer - and with the markets very strong - they are worth backing to place as well as win.
In terms of the markets leaders, then the support for You Raise me Up looks significant.
He now strikes me as the most likely race winner and is worth covering, for the Matrix.

I’m very keen on Streets of Doyen in the 2:30 - but unfortunately, so is everyone else !
I like his profile, as a horse who ran well over the summer, returning to better ground today - having had a recent pipe opener over an inadequate trip.
I also like the fact that he has won over todays course and distance…
The trouble is, 4 runs ago, he beat Flooring Porter at Gowran - and everyone has picked up on that !
In truth, I think the form line is irrelevant. The runner up veered wildly after jumping the last - and if he’d not done that, he would probably have won.
Hopefully people will eventually see that was the case, and the price will drift accordingly…

I’ve become quite keen on Minella Indo for the Gold Cup (3:05).
He was the second favourite for the race, prior to falling at Leopardstown over Christmas - and would likely still be second fav, if he’d not disappointed in the Irish Gold cup, last time.
We have to ignore that run - but if we do, we have a young progressive chaser, who already has an excellent festival record.
He went toe to toe with Allaho in the RSA last year - and beat him.
I think he would also have beaten Champ - but he idled a little, up the hill.
It’ll need a good ride from Jack Kennedy if he is to win - but there are few I’d rather have on top.
He’s overpriced because Rachael Blackmore has opted to ride A Plus Tard - but I bet it was a tough call and she can only ride one of them !

There’s too much guesswork required to get heavily involved with Foxhunters (3:40) - though I do think It Came to Pass is worth a small bet for the Matrix.
He won the race last year - and on that form holds Billaway.
He’ll be well suited by the decent ground - and his form between then and now, is probably irrelevant.
Bob and Co is a danger - and there are also plenty of unknowns lurkers - but It Came to pass still looks a value bet at 8/1.

I think Elimay is too short in the 4:15 - which means there must be value elsewhere.
It’s not Colreevy, who may struggle on the ground - so I think it is worth taking a small risk, for the Matrix.
Cabaret Queen is likely to go from the front - and I think she will love the ground.
The trip is possibly on the short side - but I suspect Rachael Blackmore will make it a real test.
She does face potential competition for the lead - so she can’t be a confident selection.
However, if things pan out in her favour, I could see her running a huge race.

I really can’t bring myself to offer anything in the finale (4:50).
Gentleman De Mee could easily be a graded horse in a handicap - and is being backed as if that’s the case (he’s 3/1).
I could take him on with Langer Dan or Galopin des Champs - but I’d
be guessing.
The huge support for Gabynako also suggests he is expected to go very close.
In short, I think this is a race that we should just watch.

Mar 19th - Preview for Cheltenham Day 4

 Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival - and I don’t know about you, but I could do with a break !


The racing doesn’t look as good on Friday as it does on Thursday - and I doubt I’ll be able to find as many bets.

Things certainly tail off a bit after the Gold Cup, so if we’re not ahead by then, it could be a long afternoon !

Here’s the early thoughts…


Cheltenham

1:20


As has been the case for most of the novice events this week, there are only 3 who warrant serious consideration in this…

Zanahiyr has been favourite for the race, since destroying Saint Sam at Fairyhouse in November.
At the time Saint Sam was considered Willie Mullins best juvenile - but Zanahiyr beat him by 14 lengths.
He then followed up by winning the Knight Frank juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Saint Sam again finished well behind him that day - along with Jeff Kidder.
As the pair of them fought out the finish to the Boodles juvenile handicap on Tuesday, it suggests the form is strong.
Zanahiyr hasn’t been seen since then - but I suspect that was always the plan.
The application of a first time tongue tie, is a slight concern - but he still looks the one to beat.
Tritonic briefly deposed him at the head of the market, following a really impressive win in the Adonis hurdle at Kempton last month.
He’s a very useful flat horse (rated 99) - and it looks like he’s going to be just as good over hurdles.
The drying ground should suit him and he’s a worthy opponent for Zanahiyr.
So too is Quilixios.
He was very impressive when wining the grade 1 Spring juvenile hurdle, at the Dublin Racing festival.
He beat Saint Sam by over 5 lengths that day, which suggests he’s not vastly inferior to Zanahiyr.
However, when the pair were trained by Gordon Elliott, Zanahiyr was considered the best - and by some margin.
Whilst switching to Henry de Bromhead is unlikely to be much of a negative for Quilixios, I can’t see it bringing about significant improvement…
It’s really hard to see anything outside the top 3 in the betting, getting involved.
Adagio is next in the market - but he really doesn’t look good enough.
And whilst it’s interesting that Willie Mullins has chosen this race for the debut of Haut en Couleurs, it probably just suggests that he’s not got a particularly strong hand of juveniles…

1:55

This years County hurdle doesn’t look particularly easy to solve ! (like it ever is !)

Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have both got excellent records in the race (they;ve won the last 6 renewals between them), so it’s not too surprising that representatives from their stables head the betting.
Both Ganapathi and Third Time Lucki, are unexposed novices, who could be a fair way ahead of the handicapper.
Ganapathi’s most recent run was in a grade 1 event at the Dublin Racing festival, won by Gaillard du Mesnil.
Ganapathi finished well beaten that day - but it’s quite possible that he simply didn’t stay the 2m6f trip.
Dropped back to the minimum distance tomorrow, he could easily put up a much improved effort.
Third TIme Lucki disappointed on his most recent run at Musselburgh - and he will need to bounce back from that.
However, he ran second to For Pleasure over course and distance in November - having been given far too much to do.
For Pleasure really franked that form on Tuesday, when finishing third in the Supreme hurdle.
If that can be taken at face value, Third time Lucki will be hard to beat.
Outside of the main two, then plenty can be given half chances, though nothing particularly jumps out.
Eclair de Beaufeu would have gone close to winning this race under a more judicious ride, a couple of year ago. That was off a 3lb lower mark than he races off tomorrow…
He also ran an excellent second on the Grand Annual last season - and that was off a mark 11lb higher !
Suffice to say, he is handicapped to run a big race.
Fifty Ball finished runner up in the Betfair hurdle on his most recent outing - and should again run well, off a 4lb higher mark; whilst Milkwood is one that I’ve had on my radar for a while - though he ran disappointingly in the same race - and for no obvious reason.
Petite Mouchoir and Le Patriote are old timers who are quite interesting, off realistic marks.
Both ran in last seasons Champion hurdle - with Petite Mouchoir finishing an honourable fifth.
This is quite a step down in grade - and it’s interesting that both will be partnered by 7lb claimers.
Great minds, maybe…

2:30


After a series of high class novice races so far this week - things take a bit of a downward turn in this race !

It’s often the weakest of the 3 novice hurdles run at the festival - but that seems particularly the case this year.
The first and second favourites are Stattler and Fakiera - but they couldn’t get within hailing distance of Gaillard du Mesnil last time - and he was comprehensively put in his place by Bob Olinger in the Ballymore on Wednesday.
Ofcourse they could massively improve for the step up in trip tomorrow - and Fakiera was certainly staying on strongly at the end of that race.
However, my feeling is that they don’t set an insurmountable standard - suggesting the race could be quite open.
Barbados Bucks is next in the market - but he just won a modest race at Kempton last time.
He was quoted at 50/1 for this race, immediately afterwards - but has subsequently been strongly supported.
Part of that will be down to his breeding - as he is closely related to the legendary Big Bucks.
However, in terms of actual performances on the track, he still has a lot to prove.
Adrimal and Alaphilippe arguably have the best form in the book, as winners of grade 2 events.
Both put up good performances in doing so, with Alaphilippe coasting home at Haydock and Adrimal showing real battling qualities to win at Warwick.
Both could easily improve again - and if they do so, they would have every chance.
The Cob is another who won a grade 2 event last time.
He bolted up at Doncaster when completely unfancied.
There seemed no fluke about his win - though he probably didn’t beat very much.
N’Golo and Streets of Doyen are the final 2 worthy of mention.
N’Golo won a grade 3 over 2 miles in November - but only by virtue of his staying power.
He’s been woefully outpaced on 3 subsequent runs over the minimum trip and it’s no surprise to see him significantly stepped up in distance tomorrow.
Streets of Doyen won over tomorrows course and distance in October - but then wasn’t seen until last month.
That was in a grade 2 race over 2 miles - a distance which he predictably found too short.
Stepped back up to 3 miles tomorrow, I would expect him to put up a much better effort.

3:05


It’s quite amazing to think that Al Boom Photo will become a triple Gold cup winner, if he is successful tomorrow.

That will put him in an elite band.
Only Best Mate (my favourite ever horse !) has achieved the feat in modern times: and before that, you have to go back to Arkle, Cottage Rake and Golden Miller.
They are all equine greats - not a term I’d associate with Al Boom Photo !

In truth, he’s going to have his work cut out to even confirm the form with the horses he beat last year.
He scrambled home by a neck from Santini, 12 months ago - and in a first time visor tomorrow, the runner up has a real chance of reversing the form.
Whatever, he certainly shouldn’t be 4 times the price of the favourite.
Lostintraslation was just a length further back in third that day - and jumping the last, looked the most likely winner.
He’s been disappointing this season - and is beginning to run out of excuses - but I wouldn’t want to be laying him at 33/1, back on suitably quick ground.
Ofcourse this is not just a 3 horse race - as there are plenty of new kids on the block, who are likely to really put it up to the old guard.
Chief amongst them is Santini’s stablemate, Champ.
He’s a very talented horse, who’s win in last years RSA, had to be seen to be believed !
He got up in the shadows on the post to deny Minella Indo.
There is nothing between the pair of them, based on that run - but Minella Indo is now 3 times the price of Champ.
Minella Indo was second favourite for this race until he fell at Leopardstown over Christmas.
A subsequent disappointing run in the Irish Gold cup - coupled with Rachael Blackmore deserting him for A Plus Tard, now means that he’s drifted out to quite an attractive price.
He’s a very talented horse - who is young enough to still be improving - and has a first and second placing to his name, from the last 2 festivals.
A Plus Tard has also got excellent festival form.
He hacked up in the novice handicap 2 years ago: before finishing a very close third in the Ryanair last year.
However, he took his form to a new level, when winning the John Durkan at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That was his first run over 3 miles and he relished it: staying on strongly to deprive Kemboy close home.
He’s still only 7 - and therefore has plenty of scope for improvement - particularly  over the longer trip.
I think he’s the one to beat - though there isn’t much margin in his current price…
Royal Pagaille is the final one of interest - and he’s really fascinating contender.
He hacked up in a competitive handicap at Kempton over Christmas off a mark of 140 - and then did exactly the same again at Haydock a month later, off a mark 16lb higher !
He’s now rated 166 - which puts him within a few pounds of the main protagonists - and clearly on a steep upward curve.
His form lines are completely different to all of his rivals - so he’s very hard to assess.
That said, it may be a mistake to under-estimate him…

3:40


The Hunter Chase is a race I’ve always liked - but it’s just not going to be the same this year, with professional riders.
The amateur jockeys were always a big part of its charm - but it is what it is…

It Came to Pass was a shock winner of the race 12 months ago, when he got the better of favourite, Billaway.
There seemed no fluke about the result - and in a way, it’s therefore a bit surprising that Billaway is strongly fancied to reverse the form tomorrow.
That said, he is the younger horse - and with It Came to Pass now 11, there’s a chance he is in slight decline.
Billaway has also shown the much better form, in the intervening period.
He can boast a second and 2 wins: whereas It Came to Pass has finished fourth (behind Billaway) and unseated.
However, it’s all about the big day - and it can certainly be argued that It Came to pass is the value call at 3 times the price.
Ofcourse this is not just a 2 horse race…
Bob and Co sits between Billaway and It Came to Pass, in the betting, following wins in his last 3 outings.
He could easily be unbeaten in his 4 runs in the UK, as he proved unrideable on his British debut and was pulled up.
That not been such an issue since - but he’s a very free going sort who will certainly be helped by the presence of Sean Bowen in the saddle, as opposed to his normal owner/ride, David Maxwell.
Red Indian is next in the betting - and he’s definitely of interest.
He still only 9 - and was still showing very useful form under rules, just 12 months ago.
I don’t know why he has switched to hunting - but he’s won his first 2 PTPs, suggesting he retains all of his ability.
If that’s the case, then he should be capable of going close.
Beyond the head of the market, then it’s very difficult to assess many of the runners.
Mr Mantilla, Latenightpass, Law of Gold and Salvatore are all relatively young horses with good form in PTPs.
However, how that will translate to a race like this, is anyones guess…

4:15

This will be the first ever running of the mares chase - and it has attracted a modest enough field of 11.
Perhaps it will improve over time…

Prior to the start of this years meeting, Willie Mullins had trained the winner of 14 of the 18 mares only races, run at the festival - and there’s a fair chance he will improve that record, as he trains the top two in the market for this.
Elimay is a short priced favourite.
She has won 3 of her 4 races over fences - her only defeat coming when she lost out to Allaho at Thurles in January.
There was no disgrace in that however, as the winner is rated 162 - and is the favourite for this afternoons Ryanair chase.
Elimay was only beaten 3 lengths, in receipt of just 2lb - and if she can run to that level tomorrow, she is likely to prove hard to beat.
On her latest outing, Elimay handed out a 5 length beating to Shattered Love.
She will meet that one on 2lb better terms tomorrow, suggesting that the runner up has little chance of revenge.
However, the 2 mile trip that day would have been far too short for Shattered Love and I would expect her to perform much better, stepped up by half a mile.
She was really impressive when winning a grade 1 chase at the festival 3 years ago - and if she’s back anywhere near that level of form, she will go very close.
Colreevy is the second Willie Mullins representative in the race (and the second favourite).
She was a good winner of an open grade 1 novice chase at Limerick over Christmas - and followed that up with a comfortable win in mares grade 2 race at Thurles, the following month.
Both of those races were over 2m4f so she will have no issue with tomorrows trip - however she seemed to relish the heavy ground on both occasions, so the likely quicker ground tomorrow is a concern.
On official ratings, Magic of Light is the best horse in the race.
However, the 2m4f trip is a bare minimum for her - and she is likely to be using this race primarily as a stepping stone for a tilt at the Grand National (she finished second in the race in 2019).
As a consequence, Zambella may be the most interesting of those at longer prices.
She won her first 3 chases this season - before finding Annie Mc too good last time at Warwick.
There was no shame in that, as the winner is a good horse, who would have had a fair chance in this race (she was a late defector).
Zambella does have a bit to find on official ratings with the market leaders - but she’s  only 6, and still improving - so it’s quite possible that she will run better than the ratings suggest.

4:50

The final race of a long week - and they really couldn’t have found a more suitable minefield for the ‘getting out stakes’ !

I have to be honest and say that I didn’t look at this race in great detail at the 5 day stage (as I did for many of the other races).
There were still almost 100 possibles at that point - many of whom were doubly declared.
I did pick out a few of potential interest - but only one of those has made the final field…

That one is Gentleman de Mee - and he is the early favourite ! (impressive spotting, from me !).
The problem with him, is that he’s impossible to assess.
He’s only run 3 times in his life - twice in his native France - and then last time, on his debut for Willie Mullins at Naas.
He hacked up that day, at odds of 2/7 - but what the form is worth, is anyones guess,
The case for him is built around the fact that Willie Mullins has chosen to throw him into this race - and generally speaking, he tends to get these kind of calls right…
There’s a real chance that the horse is much better than his opening mark of 139 - but the likes of you can only guess as to whether that is the case…
Less guessing is required with second favourite, Langer Dan.
He dotted up in the Imperial cup on Saturday - and is 5lb ‘well in’ under his 5lb penalty tomorrow,
There is a question mark over whether he will have fully recovered from a race just 6 days earlier - but he won so easily, he didn’t seem to have a hard race.
It’s quite likely that Dan Skelton has had this as the aim for quite some time - and there are few better at pulling off such plans.
Galopin des Champs is third in the betting - and like Gentleman de Mee, trained by Willie Mullins and nearly impossible to assess.
He’s run 3 times for Mullins - the last twice in graded company.
On his most recent start, he was beaten 10 lengths by Appreciate It in a grade 1 at the Dublin Racing festival.
Taken at face value, that would have seen him finish runner up in Tuesdays Supreme novice - and would likely see him win this race off a mark of 142…
Outside the top 3 in the betting, there are lots who could be given half chances -  but nothing that particularly stands out.
David Pipe saddles 3 in the race named in honour of his father - and whilst he’s never won it previously, he does look to have a fair chance.
Jockey bookings suggest Leoncavello is the best of his runners - though the unexposed Matinhall also looks quite interesting.

End of season report

  Introduction   A number of changes were made to the TVB service for the 2020-21 season.   Perhaps the most significant, was the formal s...