Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Uttoxeter
3:35
Final Nudge 5 units win 14/1
Best bets
Uttoxeter
3:35
Final Nudge 0.5pt win 14/1
There’s some reasonable racing this afternoon: but
unfortunately, I didn’t have the time/brain power to do it justice !
I normally start studying for a Saturday, on Thursday lunchtime - but unsurprisingly, that wasn’t the case this week !
I did have a quick look at the declarations, but it was 5:00pm yesterday, before I was able to get down to any serious study.
That just didn’t leave me sufficient time to check out things are thoroughly as I like (watching videos of past performances etc).
It also didn’t help that the quality of the racing is a few notches down, on what we’ve been treated to this week.
I have the form for most of those competing at Cheltenham, stored in my head - but that’s not the case for many of the horses running today.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just the one suggested bet.
I do quite fancy it - though it didn’t help the price, that Andy Holding tipped it literally minutes before me !
I won’t bang on further about the frustrations of industry tipster ruining prices !
Here’s the rationale behind the bet - and my thoughts on the other televised races.
Kempton
I was half tempted to take a chance on Onthefrontfoot in the 2:05.
I can see there being a pace war - and if that happens, it should suit the hold up horses.
Onthefrontfoot is likely to race behind the pace, so he could benefit from the way the pans out.
He’s also the only horse that Donald McCain has taken on the long journey to Kempton…
As 13/2, he’s a fair bet - if not quite a Best one !
It’s a similar story with Vive le Roi in the 2:40.
He’s the only confirmed front runner in the race - and therefore could get an uncontested lead.
He’s performed well in the past over course and distance - and from a higher mark.
The issue is that’s he’s up against a few progressive, potential improvers.
I’d expect him to run well - and he certainly looks a good back to lay IR option - but not quite a Best bet.
I like Smarty Wild best in the 3:15 race - but don’t see any value in a price of 4/1.
It looks a pretty open race - in which most of the runners can be given a chance.
At a big price, Domain De L’isle could be worth a tiny bet.
He’s well handicapped if a breathing op has sorted him out.
If he comes in for any support, the money could be worth following.
Uttoxeter
There’s too much guesswork required to get involved with the opener.
Theme Tune is the obvious one - but if he is going to win, I would expect him to be well supported in the market.
At the moment, he’s a significant drifter (out to 6/1 on the exchanges)…
Ask Me Early is moderately tempting in the 2:25 - but you would have to be prepared to forgive a dreadful run, last time.
A first time tongue tie hints at the reason for him running so badly - but I’m always a bit nervous about supporting horses who may have breathing issues.
Aside from him, then St Barts is the one who appeals most - but a price of 9/4, doesn’t…
Wilde About You could be a graded horse in a handicap (3:00).
He’s got quite a high rating - but may well have the class to defy it.
However, he’s a 3/1 shot - and that leaves no margin for error (though I wouldn’t be surprised if his price shortened).
Rockadenn is the possible alternative, as he doesn’t look badly handicapped.
However, he does look quite quirky, so you’d want a bit in the price to compensate for that…
The eagle eyed amongst you, will have noticed that Final Nudge didn’t appear in the preview for the 3:35 !
However, when I was watching replays for the race last night, I spotted him…
He most recent run was at Wincanton, in the race won by Time to Get Up.
He’s the favourite for todays race, so I was just double checking the strength of his form.
He won well at Wincanton last time (which is what I recalled) - but turning in, Final Nudge was right behind him and travelling just as strongly.
Considering it was his first run for a year - and his first ever run for Fergal O’Brien, I think it’s reasonable to assume he will improve for it.
He can run from a mark 2lb lower today: Whilst the favourite will be 8lb higher.
A 10lb turnaround - along with improved fitness - should definitely see him get much closer - and may even enable him to reverse the form.
He’s a 12 year old - so possibly in decline. However he’s run well in this race in the past - and finished third in a Welsh National - and both of those runs were off marks significantly higher than he races off today (the latter, nearly a stone higher).
I certainly think he’s a decent bet to beat the favourite, this afternoon…
I normally start studying for a Saturday, on Thursday lunchtime - but unsurprisingly, that wasn’t the case this week !
I did have a quick look at the declarations, but it was 5:00pm yesterday, before I was able to get down to any serious study.
That just didn’t leave me sufficient time to check out things are thoroughly as I like (watching videos of past performances etc).
It also didn’t help that the quality of the racing is a few notches down, on what we’ve been treated to this week.
I have the form for most of those competing at Cheltenham, stored in my head - but that’s not the case for many of the horses running today.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up with just the one suggested bet.
I do quite fancy it - though it didn’t help the price, that Andy Holding tipped it literally minutes before me !
I won’t bang on further about the frustrations of industry tipster ruining prices !
Here’s the rationale behind the bet - and my thoughts on the other televised races.
Kempton
I was half tempted to take a chance on Onthefrontfoot in the 2:05.
I can see there being a pace war - and if that happens, it should suit the hold up horses.
Onthefrontfoot is likely to race behind the pace, so he could benefit from the way the pans out.
He’s also the only horse that Donald McCain has taken on the long journey to Kempton…
As 13/2, he’s a fair bet - if not quite a Best one !
It’s a similar story with Vive le Roi in the 2:40.
He’s the only confirmed front runner in the race - and therefore could get an uncontested lead.
He’s performed well in the past over course and distance - and from a higher mark.
The issue is that’s he’s up against a few progressive, potential improvers.
I’d expect him to run well - and he certainly looks a good back to lay IR option - but not quite a Best bet.
I like Smarty Wild best in the 3:15 race - but don’t see any value in a price of 4/1.
It looks a pretty open race - in which most of the runners can be given a chance.
At a big price, Domain De L’isle could be worth a tiny bet.
He’s well handicapped if a breathing op has sorted him out.
If he comes in for any support, the money could be worth following.
Uttoxeter
There’s too much guesswork required to get involved with the opener.
Theme Tune is the obvious one - but if he is going to win, I would expect him to be well supported in the market.
At the moment, he’s a significant drifter (out to 6/1 on the exchanges)…
Ask Me Early is moderately tempting in the 2:25 - but you would have to be prepared to forgive a dreadful run, last time.
A first time tongue tie hints at the reason for him running so badly - but I’m always a bit nervous about supporting horses who may have breathing issues.
Aside from him, then St Barts is the one who appeals most - but a price of 9/4, doesn’t…
Wilde About You could be a graded horse in a handicap (3:00).
He’s got quite a high rating - but may well have the class to defy it.
However, he’s a 3/1 shot - and that leaves no margin for error (though I wouldn’t be surprised if his price shortened).
Rockadenn is the possible alternative, as he doesn’t look badly handicapped.
However, he does look quite quirky, so you’d want a bit in the price to compensate for that…
The eagle eyed amongst you, will have noticed that Final Nudge didn’t appear in the preview for the 3:35 !
However, when I was watching replays for the race last night, I spotted him…
He most recent run was at Wincanton, in the race won by Time to Get Up.
He’s the favourite for todays race, so I was just double checking the strength of his form.
He won well at Wincanton last time (which is what I recalled) - but turning in, Final Nudge was right behind him and travelling just as strongly.
Considering it was his first run for a year - and his first ever run for Fergal O’Brien, I think it’s reasonable to assume he will improve for it.
He can run from a mark 2lb lower today: Whilst the favourite will be 8lb higher.
A 10lb turnaround - along with improved fitness - should definitely see him get much closer - and may even enable him to reverse the form.
He’s a 12 year old - so possibly in decline. However he’s run well in this race in the past - and finished third in a Welsh National - and both of those runs were off marks significantly higher than he races off today (the latter, nearly a stone higher).
I certainly think he’s a decent bet to beat the favourite, this afternoon…
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