Having slightly messed up the Christmas period, the weather upped it’s game and seriously messed up the New year period !
The abandonment of Cheltenham New Years day fixture, was a big blow: and the meetings at Exeter, on New Years day - and Ayr, on Saturday, both subsequently followed suit.As a consequence, there was just one meeting of note, run on each day: Musselburgh on New Years day - and Sandown on Saturday….
Friday (New Years Day)
I’ve mentioned many times before, about how difficult things become, when there is uncertainty regarding the weather, so I won’t repeat myself !
Suffice to say, it’s very hard to commit to anything, when it is shrouded in uncertainty - and when the prices are being held artificially low, it becomes impossible.
That was the situation at Musselburgh, when I could really have fancied a couple of horses - if I could have been sure on the state of the ground; known that all of the runners would compete; and got a fair price.
Alas that wasn’t the case - and a potential double attack via Sebastapol and Romain de Senam, turned in to a ‘no bet’ day…
As it turned out, the ground wasn’t as bad as I feared it might be - though it was still too soft for Sebastapol.
He needs quick ground - and stepping up in trip, he didn’t get home.
He’s been taken out of multiple races in the past, on account of soft ground - and if the race had been taking place nearer to home, I suspect he wouldn’t have run.
However, once you’ve committed to a 600 mile round trip, then I guess you are going to take part - particularly when the worse thing that is likely to happen, is a poor run and a subsequent drop in the ratings !
Suffice to say, I think his effort can be safely ignored…
Romain de Senam doesn’t have such a strong requirement for decent ground - and if I’d seen how it was riding, the ground wouldn’t have put me off.
What would have put me off however, was a best price of 9/2.
He was 13/2 the night before - and his SP was 13/2 - but when I could tip him, the best price on offer was 9/2…
That’s a big difference - and in a competitive 11 runner race, with doubts over the conditions, it’s very hard to get involved (without the benefit of hindsight).
What I should have done, was run a Live thread - as the BSP of 9.6 was an absolute gift !
In the race itself, he travelled like the wrath of god: took up the running at the end of the back straight - and sauntered home unchallenged.
He’ll get a sizeable hike in the weights - but I doubt connections will care, as this was clearly the plan.
Hopefully a few of you found an acceptable way of supporting him…
Saturday
The races/horses just weren’t there to be attacked at Sandown - and as a consequence, I ended up with just the one Best bet on the day.
That was Ballydine in the veterans chase - and whilst he was undoubtedly a risky selection, I felt I could make a decent case for him at a big price.
Unfortunately, the price wasn’t quite as big as I would have liked, as he came in for significant support, both overnight and in the early morning - but I still thought he was worth a risk at 16/1.
However, I didn’t think that once the tapes went up - as he was the last horse away from the start - and they rarely win big field handicaps !
In fairness, he did his best to get into contention - but he wasn’t up to the task.
I’ve no complaints - I knew he was risky - and simply, the risk didn’t come off…
For the Matrix, he was supported by Regal Flow - and he ran much better.
In fact, if the ground had been softer - or the distance further, I think he would have gone very close.
Suffice to say, despite now being 14 years old, he clearly retains plenty of ability - and given the right test (3 miles+ and heavy ground), I wouldn’t put it past him notch another win…
Earlier on the card, Doitforthevillage took advantage of a jumping lapse by Destinee Royale, to win the 2m4f handicap chase.
He caught my eye as recently as Tuesday, when he finished strongly in a 2 mile race at Newbury.
I marked him down as one to be interested in next time - over 2m4f or on softer ground.
He got that today - but he threw me by re-appearing so quickly !
I also didn’t think he would really appreciate the course…
In truth, he may have been a lucky winner, as Destinee Royale was trading heavily odds-on when she fell. That said, the fences are there to be jumped - and he jumped them, whereas she didn’t…
In the following race, Ibleo snapped his run of seconds, with a battling victory.
He was almost certainly helped by a very strong pace, which put the emphasis on stamina - and he stayed on well, to record a decisive victory.
Certainly, I think we can feel a little aggrieved, that he managed to win today off a mark 8lb higher than when I made him a Best bet, on the first day of the season - and he was narrowly beaten…
Metier was an impressive winner of the Tolworth hurdle - and his price even drifted a little.
That said, I wouldn’t have been interested, even at an SP of 7/4, as I felt there was too much guesswork required.
Finally, Guard Your Dreams won the closing handicap hurdle - after Totterdown had tried to blow the field apart.
Ultimately, I think the race was won by jockeyship, as Sam TD and Harry Cobden didn’t give the leader as much rope, as the rest of the field did.
They therefore expended less energy reeling him in - and had the most in reserve for the Sandown hill.
Monsieur Lecoq appeared to run disappointingly in third - but I just think he was too far out of his ground.
On the plus side, he’s likely to be dropped 2 or 3 pounds, which could make him of interest next time…
TVB.
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