Jan 9th - Preview for Sandown, Chepstow & Wincanton

I was a little surprised to see both Chepstow and Wincanton survive their inspections, earlier this afternoon - but less surprised to see that they will be re-inspecting both courses at 8:00 tomorrow. 

They will also be inspecting Kempton at the same time - and it’s anyones guess as to which of the meetings will actually take place.

Worse than that, I’ll be surprised if we have much more clarity at 8:15 - as I reckon we will be in for a morning of inspections...
They managed to inspected Ffos Las 4 times on Wednesday, before finally abandoning, 15 mins before the first race was due to be run - you have been warned !

The other issue we’ll have, is knowing which horses will be running where.
Maybe unsurprisingly, there are a host of double declarations, with a number of horses declared for races at 2 different courses.
Again, it’s going to be impossible to know how these will all work out, until relatively close to the off.

Suffice to say, the day is shrouded in uncertainty !

Still, it is what it is.
It doesn’t affect my ability to preview the races - though it may well make me more reticent to suggest bets.
I’ll start looking at 9:00, as planned - but fully expect to have to revisit the bet issuing, at least once during the morning.

For now, I’ll stick to previewing the 10 races which are scheduled to feature on terrestrial TV.
Depending on how things pan out, I may end up also looking at some of the other races for bet - but I’ll play that by ear…



Kempton

1:10

I put up Erick le Rouge as a Best bet, when he was declared to run at Kempton over the Christmas period.
However, he was a non runner that day, due to soft ground…
Interestingly, whilst that race was over 3 miles (a trip over which he is unproven), tomorrow race is over 2m4f (a trip over which he is very much proven !).
That might not be overly significant, if it weren’t for the fact that the very next race on the card is over 3 miles (so he did have the option).
I’m not quite sure how to read that (a change of heart ?) - but suffice to say, he appears to have a very good chance tomorrow, on a track he loves; over a suitable trip and following a wind op - provided the ground is indeed, relatively quick.
He is currently second fav for the race behind Espoir De Romay.
It’s easy enough to see why he is the market leader, following his 7 length defeat by Royal Pagaille at Haydock, when conceding 5lb.
The winner subsequently came out and dotted up at Kempton.
He got a stone rise in the ratings for his trouble - and taking the form of the Haydock race literally, it can be argued that Espoir de Romay ran to a rating of around 150.
That’s not impossible - and if he were to repeat the level of form tomorrow, he would have 10lb in hand of his mark (which would make him very hard to beat).
Evander is on an upward trajectory having won a small field novice handicap at Doncaster, last time.
However, he will be running off a mark 9lb higher tomorrow, in a much tougher race…
Half cases can be made for Smarty Wild, Pistol Whipped and Mahlervous - but at a much bigger price, The Bay Birch looks more interesting, running off a mark 17lb lower, than when last successful at Chepstow, 18 months ago.
In fairness, she has been beaten numerous times in the intervening period, off falling marks - but has run with credit on a few occasions.
There is no doubt she is extremely well handicapped - and things will doubtless drop into place for her sooner or later.
Whether that will be tomorrow, remains to be seen.

1:45

Double Shuffle caught my eye on his latest run at Kempton, over the Christmas period.
That was the race in which Erick le Rouge was a NR, and in his absence, Double Shuffle became my fancy.
And in fairness, he ran pretty well - chasing an overly strong pace and only weakening out of things, up the home straight.
Ultimately, he was beaten over 20 lengths - but it was by a couple of progressive rivals - and he was dropped 2lb in the ratings as a consequence.
That puts him on a mark of 140 - and there is no doubt that he is now handicapped to win.
A second race inside a fortnight, is a slight worry: as would be soft ground - but in a race where there are no obvious big improvers, he looks the one to beat.
Coo Star Sivola could be a danger.
He too is potentially very well handicapped - though injuries have resulted in him making very few appearances over the past couple of seasons.
His comeback run at Bangor early in November, suggested that most of the ability remains - whilst Richard Johnson is a very interesting jockey booking.
Of the favourites, I prefer Two for Gold to Commodore - though at the prices on offer, both can be opposed.
Slate House is of more interest - even off top weight, back over the same course and distance over which he won last seasons Kauto Star novice chase.
He’s disappointed in 3 subsequent runs - but a rating of 150 doesn’t look harsh; whilst a recent wind op could result in him putting in an improved effort.

2:20

This race has been saved from the Cheltenham New Years day card - and despite there only being 7 runners, it’s still a very interesting contest.

McFabulous has been installed a short priced favourite in the early market - and it’s easy to see why.
He won the final of the EBF series, over tomorrows course and distance, back in March - and has looked an improved performer on his 2 runs this season.
The most recent of them was a in a grade 1 at Newbury and he was sent off fav to beat Paisley Park and Thyme Hill.
He came up slightly short that day - but was only beaten 6 lengths and travelled like the winner, to the second last hurdle.
Cut back in trip tomorrow, he sets a very high standard and should prove difficult to beat.
That said, on official ratings, he is 5lb shy of Younevercall.
He too finished behind Paisley Park and Thyme Hill on his most recent outing - this time at Ascot, just before Christmas.
Furthermore he had proved himself fully effective over tomorrows course and distance, when a very narrow runner up to Storm Goddess on his previous outing.
The form book says that he sets the race standard - even if the bookies (and to an extent, me !) aren’t buying that…
Summerville Boy and Thomas Darby can both be given fair chances - on certain pieces of form.
It certainly wouldn’t be the biggest shock if either were to win - though equally, it’s impossible to make a really strong case for either, based on form or ratings.
In fact, a better case can be made for Indefatigable.
She won the Martin Pipe hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and on the back of that, her rating was increased to 150.
It remains to be seen whether she deserves such a mark - but if she does, then on official adjusted figures, she is the second best horse in the race - and only 2lb below the best (Younevercall).
She disappointed on her most recent run, back in November - but has been given plenty of time to recover from that.
Richie McClernan replaces Rex Dingle in the saddle - and he rode her when she won at Warwick, in February…
She certainly represents the early value in the race, at around 16/1…

2:55

There may only be 4 runners in this race, but it is still a fascinating contest.

I suggested Master Tommytucker as an unofficial bet in the forum, earlier in the week - and I still think he has an excellent chance.
In terms of pure ability, he is a match for all of his rivals - and the small field should suit him perfectly.
I would expect Harry Cobden to dictated things from the front - and provided his jumping holds up, I think he will be hard to pass.
In truth, prior to his last 2 runs, his jumping would have been a major concern.
However, it was flawless when winning his penultimate start at Haydock - and perhaps more importantly, he managed to stay on his feet when put under serious pressure last time at Cheltenham.
That was the run which caused me to change my mind on him - and whilst I can’t absolutely guarantee he won’t fall tomorrow, I’m very hopeful he won’t - and provided he doesn’t, I think he is the one to beat.
That said, he faces a formidable opponent in Imperial Aura.
He was very impressive when winning at the Cheltenham festival on his final start last season - and has looked a much improved horse in his 2 runs this season.
He is now favourite for the Ryanair chase - but will need to win tomorrow if he is to justify that position.
He may be capable of doing just that - but he has to concede 6lb to Master Tommytucker - and that won’t be easy.
Not that this is a 2 horse race…
Third fav, Ridersonthestorm, won a grade 1 race just 3 outings ago - and has had excuses for his 2 subsequent defeats.
He has a very real chance tomorrow - and a current quote of 5/1, under-estimates him.
Clondaw Castle is the final runner - and whilst it is right that he is the outsider of the field, he is still a very talented animal. On official ratings, he is the equal of Master Tommytucker and superior to Ridersonthestorm.
Furthermore, the 2m4f trip on reasonable ground should be perfect for him.
I wouldn’t expect him to be quite good enough to win - but equally, I will be surprised if he is beaten far…

3:30

This looks a fiercely competitive contest, with a bumper field (currently 20) expected to go to post.

One True King has just about worked his way to the head of the market - and I’ve little issue with that.
He’s a young, progressive horse, who has already run well 3 times this season - and who could easily improve for tomorrows step up in trip.
His first 2 run this season were in decent handicaps at Cheltenham - and whilst he was beaten in them both, he still performed with considerable credit.
He managed to get off the mark for the season, on his most recent outing at Leicester - and whilst the form of that run isn’t quite so good, he may well have benefited from actually winning the race.
His mark has gradually edged up to 132 - but that still looks workable.
He is disputing favouritism with Everglow.
He too is young and progressive - though he doesn’t have the big race experience of One True King.
He might get away with that - but then again, he might not…
Shang Tang is the next one of interest…
He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Wetherby in October, when third to a couple of well handicapped horses.
He followed that up, by winning a 4 runner race at Ascot - and whilst that doesn’t sound strong form, the fact that the runner up filled the same spot on his next outing - and got a 5lb rise for his efforts - suggests that it just might be.
Shang Tang fell at the first on his most recent run (in the same race), which is never ideal.
However, provided that hasn’t left a mark, I would expect him to run well.
The White Mouse has been really impressive in winning her 2 races this season - but her rating is going up and the opposition is getting stronger; whilst Hunters Call looks the best of the exposed horses.
He’s run really well in his last 2 races - but equally he has been beaten on both occasions - and runs off the same mark tomorrow.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - but that’s to be expected in a race of this nature…

Chepstow

1:25

It’s rarely easy to assess the form in juvenile hurdle races - and that’s certainly the case in this one.

Nassalam has been installed a short priced favourite on the back of 2 comprehensive wins at Fontwell.
The form of those races amounts to very little - but he couldn’t have won more easily - and he recorded good numbers in the process.
It’s probably right that he heads the market - but I suspect is a bit of ‘the next Goshen’ in his price…
Next in, is Houx Gris.
He’s even harder to assess, as he’s making his UK debut for Paul Nichols.
He’s been priced up purely on connections - and the fact that they appear to hold him in high regard.
Whether he will be able to justify their faith on the racecourse, remains to be seen…
Adagio is easier to assess.
His 2 most recent outings have both been at Cheltenham - and he’s shown a reasonable level of form.
That said, he should need to improve on what he has done so far, if he’s to take a race of this nature.
Elnham Valley was an impressive winner last time, on his hurdling debut at Sandown.
He was quite limited on the flat - but appeared to improve significantly, when asked to jump 8 flights of hurdles.
In all probability, he will need to improve again, if he is to take tomorrows contest - but that could happen...
Yggdrasil finished behind Elnham Valley at Sandown - but that was his very first time on a racecourse.
It’s likely that he will have derived significant benefit from the experience - and certainly not impossible that he will find the 6 lengths necessary to reverse the form with the winner.
Whether he will be able to find sufficient improvement to be able to win the race, is a different matter - but again, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility…

3:10

The Welsh National revolves around Secret Reprieve.
He was a really impressive winner of the trial for the race, run over the course early in December.
If the handicapper had been able to take that run into consideration, then Secret Reprieve would be running off a nearly stone higher mark tomorrow.
However, he wasn’t (because it’s an early closing race) - and as a consequence, he just incurs a 4lb penalty for the win.
That means he is 8lb ‘well in’ - and he also has plenty of scope for further progression.
He’s unproven over tomorrows trip - but wasn’t stopping last time, over half a mile shorter.
The delay in running the race (originally scheduled for Dec 27th), will work in his favour - and he is very much the one to beat.
Springfield Fox is next in the betting - and is similarly unexposed.
However, he hasn’t yet proved himself, in the same way as Secret Reprieve.
Of more interest, is Christmas in April.
He is more exposed than the 2 market leaders - but is proven over marathon trips and in heavy ground.
He was a big improver last season - and ran with promise on his seasonal debut at Fontwell.
He is trained by Colin Tizzard, and his daughter is remembered in the title of the race.
She died tragically, in the middle of last year - and there can be little doubt that Christmas in April will be doing his very best to honour her memory.
Dominateur and Lord du Mesnil are 2 more interesting runners…
The former proved himself in the Chepstow mud when winning over 3 miles, on last seasons Welsh National under card.
Lord du Mesnil was a big improver last season - and whilst he does look a touch high in the handicap, he will be far better suited to tomorrows test, than he was when unplaced over 2m5f last time.
Again, plenty of those at big prices, can be given at least half chances.
The Hollow Ginge ran really well last time, in the Hennessy - and can be expected to run well again tomorrow, off a pound lower mark.
Vieux Lion Rouge is another who could run well.
Like Secret Reprieve, he is 8lb ‘well in’ following his win in the Becher chase.
He will have no issue with the ground or trip - though at 12, he’s not likely to be improving !
He may be a fair EW play.
The same is true of Captain Drake.
He finished second to Truckers Lodge in last seasons Midlands national.
On 12lb better terms tomorrow, he has every chance of reversing the form - and yet can be backed at 5 times the price…

Wincanton

I really expected Wincanton to be abandoned, when they inspected earlier today - but it now looks as if there’s a chance the meeting might go ahead.
That said, it’s the weakest of the 3 fixtures, so even if it does, I’ll be a little surprised if I can find any bets there…

2:05

I almost certainly won’t be finding a bet in this particular race !
Just the 3 are likely to go to post - and realistically, it looks to be a match between Protektorat and Messire des Obeaux.
In fairness, both appear to be very good novices - with Protektorat in particular, looking as if he could be from the top drawer.
He barely put a foot wrong when winning on his chasing debut at Carlisle, in October - and was just as impressive the following month, when hammering Southfield Stone at Cheltenham.
That said, he will probably be facing a stronger rival in Messire des Obeaus, than anything he's faced previously - so the race should be a decent test for him.
Messire was actually a better hurdler than Protektorat - but then had the best part of 3 years on the side lines.
However, he looked very good when winning over tomorrows course and distance on his chasing debut, last month - and if he can build on that, he will certainly test Protektorat (at very least).
Lieutentant Rocco is the other runner in the field - and whilst he should be outclassed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out-run his odds.
He ran very well last time, when runner up to Fusil Raffles in a a decent novice chase at Cheltenham - and if he repeats that level of form, he certainly won’t be disgraced.

2:35

This is a near impossible race to assess, as 8 of the 9 runners have other engagements, either at Kempton or at Chepstow.
It’s anyones guess which runners will actually go to post - which makes previewing it, an almost pointless exercise…
For what it’s worth, Capeland is the one runner fully committed to the contest (no alternative engagement) - and he should have a fair chance, stepped back up in trip.
He’s won previously over tomorrows course and distance, so the test will clearly suit him.
Of the others, then Gala Ball is probably the most interesting.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago and must have every chance of following up tomorrow, off a mark just 1lb higher.

3:45

Relatively speaking, this is quite an unappealing contest.
Glajou heads the market.
He was a good winner at Southwell, early in December - and followed that up with a fair effort to finish third at Taunton, just 9 days later.
He’s still got plenty of scope for improvement - and could well have benefited from his subsequent break.
He doesn’t set an insurmountable standard - but is probably the right favourite.
That said, if he could refind his old form - or even just repeat the form of his most recent run, then Gardefort would take a lot of beating.
Rated as high as 145 in his prime - he was off the course for 18 months, prior to his recent second to Bennys King at Ascot.
That was a strong race - stronger than tomorrows - and Gardefort looked like winning for a good part of it.
A reproduction of that effort would probably be good enough tomorrow - but there are a couple of potential issues…
Firstly, it was a huge effort, just 3 weeks ago, on the back of a very long break - and often that sees a horse ’bounce’ the next time it runs (ie. run below form).
The other issue is that Gardefort is now 12 - and quite likely to be in decline.
Few others in the race hold much appeal - so it’s certainly not a contest that should take a lot of winning…