Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Kempton
1:10
The Bay Birch 5 units win 11/1
Erick le Rouge 2 units win 4/1 (FP 4/1)
1:45
Double Shuffle 8 units win 11/2
Coo Star Sivola 2 units win 8/1
2:20
Indefatigable 2 units win 16/1
3:30
Shang Tang 5 units win 10/1
One True King 2 units win 5/1
Chepstow
1:25
Yggdrasil 3 units win 14/1
Elham Valley 2 units win 10/1
3:10
Christmas in April 4 units win 10/1
Captain Drake 1 unit wn 40/1
Best bets
Kempton
1:10
The Bay Birch 0.5pt win 11/1
1:45
Double Shuffle 1pt win 11/2
3:30
Shang Tang 0.5pt win 10/1
It was a pleasant surprise, to see all 3 courses pass their
early morning inspections - ‘the great thaw’ clearly arrived just in the nick of
time !
As a result, there will be lots of action for us to enjoy this afternoon - though committing to early bets, was a different matter.
A host of double declarations made figuring out what will actually be running, tricky in some races - and impossible in others.
Whilst it’s also anyones guess how the ground will be riding, having spent multiple days under frost covers…
That said, I have time to consider those variables - and decided relatively early that my focus for bets, would be on Kempton.
I got close to supplementing the Best bets from there, with a couple more from Chepstow - but decided instead, to cover them with the Matrix.
I never really considered anything from Wincanton - when you have a race where there is uncertainty over the participation of all bar one of the runners, I think it’s best not to get involved !
Kempton
My original plan was to put up Erick Le Rouge in the 1:10.
However, he’s been well supported in the market - and there is now minimal value in his price.
He needs to bounce back to form, if he is to win - and whilst he may well do that, there is a risk involved which is not truly reflected in his price.
The Bay Birch also needs to bounce back to form if she is to win - but at least that is factored into her price (even if the margin is continually reducing !).
As a consequence, she is the Best bet in the race - with stakes saved on Erick, for the Matrix…
Double Shuffle is the best bet of the day, in the 1:45.
I decided when he ran at Kempton over Christmas, that I wanted to be with him next time, provided conditions were right - and I think conditions are right.
I heard a rumour that he needed the run last time - and if that was the case, he really will take some beating this afternoon.
Coo Star Sivola is the biggest danger, if he bounces back to form - and is worth a saver, for the Matrix…
There was a slight temptation to put up Indefatigable as a Best bet in the 2:20, as I do think a strong theoretical argument can be made for her (at the prices).
However, there is a chance that she is running in this race because she has no other options.
If that’s the case, then I’d be less keen on her.
I still think she is worth covering to small stakes, via the Matrix - but she isn’t a Best bet.
Summerville Boy is possibly the next most interesting one - though whatever, you would have to fear Mcfabulous…
There is arguably a little bit of juice in a price of 7/2 about Master Tommytucker in the 2:55.
That said, it is a strong race (even with just 4 runners) - and with slight concerns over his jumping, I can resist him at that price.
Riders onthe Storm is potentially more appealing at a price of 11/2 - though he too, comes with risks…
I think Shang Tang is worth supporting in the 3:30.
He has the right profile for a race of this nature - and his form looks strong.
At the prices, I’m happy to make him a Best bet.
One True King looks the biggest danger - but there is minimal margin in his price.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix however - particularly as his price could drift, nearer the off…
Chepstow
I got pretty close to making Yggdrasil a Best bet in the 1:25.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved and it would have been a pure value based call.
At 20/1, I would probably have gone with him - but his price was cut to 14/1 this morning and that reduced the appeal.
It can also be argued that he shouldn’t really beat Elham Valley - and arguably that one is better value at 10/1.
After consideration, I decided the best way to cover them, was with small stakes, via the Matrix.
I got even closer to making Christmas in April a Best bet in the 3:10.
However, part of that was because it’s the Welsh National - and so I knew that you should all be able to get on relatively easily !
I shouldn’t really be suggesting bets based on the ease of placement - so after due consideration, I decided to just cover him via the Matrix.
I do think he’s got a good chance - but it’s a very competitive race, with a strong looking favourite, so confidence will always be limited.
In addition, I want to cover Captain Drake, via a minimum stake on the Matrix.
It’s a pure ‘value bet’ - but if he was to win at 40/1 and I’d not covered him at all, I wouldn’t be happy !
Wincanton
There was just too much uncertainty, to consider getting involved early, with any of the Wincanton races…
Protektorat should win the 2:05 - but he’s heavily odds on and faces a couple of reasonable rivals.
Lieutenant Rocco is the theoretical value in the race at 12/1 - but will probably finish last !
Evander is very short in the 2:35 - and I’d be inclined to take him on - though I’m not sure with what…
Gala Ball and Slate House probably make most appeal - but not sufficient to suggest either one.
Gardefort at 4/1 is moderately tempting in the 3:45 - though there are a couple of significant question marks over him.
It boils down to whether he can reproduce the form of his last run - if he can, he’ll take a bit of beating, but there is a real chance he will ‘bounce’.
I’d prefer him at bigger odds in a stronger field - as he would then be worth a risk.
At the price on offer, I think he can just be watched…
As a result, there will be lots of action for us to enjoy this afternoon - though committing to early bets, was a different matter.
A host of double declarations made figuring out what will actually be running, tricky in some races - and impossible in others.
Whilst it’s also anyones guess how the ground will be riding, having spent multiple days under frost covers…
That said, I have time to consider those variables - and decided relatively early that my focus for bets, would be on Kempton.
I got close to supplementing the Best bets from there, with a couple more from Chepstow - but decided instead, to cover them with the Matrix.
I never really considered anything from Wincanton - when you have a race where there is uncertainty over the participation of all bar one of the runners, I think it’s best not to get involved !
Kempton
My original plan was to put up Erick Le Rouge in the 1:10.
However, he’s been well supported in the market - and there is now minimal value in his price.
He needs to bounce back to form, if he is to win - and whilst he may well do that, there is a risk involved which is not truly reflected in his price.
The Bay Birch also needs to bounce back to form if she is to win - but at least that is factored into her price (even if the margin is continually reducing !).
As a consequence, she is the Best bet in the race - with stakes saved on Erick, for the Matrix…
Double Shuffle is the best bet of the day, in the 1:45.
I decided when he ran at Kempton over Christmas, that I wanted to be with him next time, provided conditions were right - and I think conditions are right.
I heard a rumour that he needed the run last time - and if that was the case, he really will take some beating this afternoon.
Coo Star Sivola is the biggest danger, if he bounces back to form - and is worth a saver, for the Matrix…
There was a slight temptation to put up Indefatigable as a Best bet in the 2:20, as I do think a strong theoretical argument can be made for her (at the prices).
However, there is a chance that she is running in this race because she has no other options.
If that’s the case, then I’d be less keen on her.
I still think she is worth covering to small stakes, via the Matrix - but she isn’t a Best bet.
Summerville Boy is possibly the next most interesting one - though whatever, you would have to fear Mcfabulous…
There is arguably a little bit of juice in a price of 7/2 about Master Tommytucker in the 2:55.
That said, it is a strong race (even with just 4 runners) - and with slight concerns over his jumping, I can resist him at that price.
Riders onthe Storm is potentially more appealing at a price of 11/2 - though he too, comes with risks…
I think Shang Tang is worth supporting in the 3:30.
He has the right profile for a race of this nature - and his form looks strong.
At the prices, I’m happy to make him a Best bet.
One True King looks the biggest danger - but there is minimal margin in his price.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix however - particularly as his price could drift, nearer the off…
Chepstow
I got pretty close to making Yggdrasil a Best bet in the 1:25.
However, there is a lot of guesswork involved and it would have been a pure value based call.
At 20/1, I would probably have gone with him - but his price was cut to 14/1 this morning and that reduced the appeal.
It can also be argued that he shouldn’t really beat Elham Valley - and arguably that one is better value at 10/1.
After consideration, I decided the best way to cover them, was with small stakes, via the Matrix.
I got even closer to making Christmas in April a Best bet in the 3:10.
However, part of that was because it’s the Welsh National - and so I knew that you should all be able to get on relatively easily !
I shouldn’t really be suggesting bets based on the ease of placement - so after due consideration, I decided to just cover him via the Matrix.
I do think he’s got a good chance - but it’s a very competitive race, with a strong looking favourite, so confidence will always be limited.
In addition, I want to cover Captain Drake, via a minimum stake on the Matrix.
It’s a pure ‘value bet’ - but if he was to win at 40/1 and I’d not covered him at all, I wouldn’t be happy !
Wincanton
There was just too much uncertainty, to consider getting involved early, with any of the Wincanton races…
Protektorat should win the 2:05 - but he’s heavily odds on and faces a couple of reasonable rivals.
Lieutenant Rocco is the theoretical value in the race at 12/1 - but will probably finish last !
Evander is very short in the 2:35 - and I’d be inclined to take him on - though I’m not sure with what…
Gala Ball and Slate House probably make most appeal - but not sufficient to suggest either one.
Gardefort at 4/1 is moderately tempting in the 3:45 - though there are a couple of significant question marks over him.
It boils down to whether he can reproduce the form of his last run - if he can, he’ll take a bit of beating, but there is a real chance he will ‘bounce’.
I’d prefer him at bigger odds in a stronger field - as he would then be worth a risk.
At the price on offer, I think he can just be watched…
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