Jan 1st - Preview for Musselburgh & Exeter

The abandonment of Cheltenham means that the meeting at Musselburgh, will take centre stage on New Years day (assuming frost doesn’t intervene !). 

It’s not a bad card - and would have provided very good support for Cheltenham - but equally, it’s not really a feature card…

The 3 televised races are all reasonable quality handicaps - so there is a definite chance of a bet or two - assuming the prices hold up…

By contrast, the Exeter card isn’t great - it’s the sort of thing you’d expect to see during the midweek.
I’ve briefly covered the 3 televised races: but I don’t have a particularly strong view on any of them - and I don’t expect any bets from there (in part, because if I did tip anything - even at 10:00 - the price would just collapse !).

Suffice to say I would expect Al Boom Photo to hack up in the big race at Tramore - and it’s really not worth me elaborating on that !

Here are my relatively brief views on the other 6 televised races…


Musselburgh

1:20

Sebastapol looks to have been targeted at this race.
He won a slight better contest at the course, back in February.
That was over 2 miles - and he looked in trouble at around half way, before powering home.
He steps up half a mile in distance tomorrow - but I think that will suit him.
He also had a run at Newbury last month (in a very strong race), which should have blown away the cobwebs.
He ultimately finished quite well beaten that day - but as a result his mark was dropped 2lb.
He will therefore run tomorrow off a mark just 4lb higher than he won from in February…
The only worry for him, is the possibility of soft ground.
He’s almost certainly gone to Musselburgh for good ground - but they’ve had some rain.
If they get any more, he won’t be happy - and may not even run (he’s been taken out of a few races in the past, on account of soft ground).
If he doesn’t run, then the race will have a much more open look.
Accomplice would definitely be of interest, on just his fourth run for Paul Nicholls.
He ran well when runner up at Wincanton last time - and can be expected to build on that.
There shouldn’t be much between Newtown Boy and Clearance, based on their run over course and distance, 3 weeks ago.
Newtown Boy won that race - with Clearance 7 lengths back in third.
However, Clearance was making his seasonal debut and will be 6lb better off at the weights, tomorrow.
Kaiser is the final one of interest.
He ran well on his most recent start over hurdles, when sixth in a hot handicap at Haydock, back in November.
He subsequently ran a reasonable race on the AW at Newcastle - and that should ensure he is still in top form.
Soft ground shouldn’t be an issue to him - and he could turn out to be the biggest danger to Sebastapol.

1:55

Many of the horses running at Musselburgh tomorrow, will have come in search of decent ground - and that’s definitely the case for the 2 market leaders in this.
Proschema was sent off at just 5/1 for the grade 3 Greatwood hurdle on his most recent outing - but the ground turned against him and he ran no sort of a race.
Prior to that run, he had been an eye catching runner up at Wetherby, on his handicap debut.
He was sent off at just 11/8 that day - in quite a hot handicap. Suffice to say, it is reasonable to think, that connections believe he is a well handicapped horse !
His novice form from last season certainly backs that up - and if he does get his ground tomorrow, he is likely to be hard to beat.
Miranda is disputing favouritism with him - but she was beaten off a 10lb lower mark, when running over course and distance back in February (she was third to Sebastapol).
She may well have improved since then - but she will need to have done, if she is going to beat Proschema.
In contrast to those two, Rosie and Millie will have no issue if the ground is on the soft side - in fact, it will suit her.
She has run well in defeat, on all 3 of her runs this season - and her handicap mark is edging downwards…
Her 2 most recent runs in particular, represent strong handicap form - and whatever beats her, will know it’s been in a race…
Manucci is the final one worthy of a mention, on his debut for Tim Vaughan.
He showed some decent form as a juvenile, last season - and an opening mark of 124 looks very fair.
A lot will depend on how fit he is - on his first run for a new stable.
However, he ran on the flat in October, so he shouldn’t be too rusty.
He’s also travelled a long way for the race - so if the money comes, it would be wise to take heed…

3:05

Romain de Senam is yet another horse who will have travelled north in the hope of finding better ground.
Formerly trained by Paul Nicholls, he switched in to the care of Dan Skelton, over the summer.
Skelton has spent a little time working on his handicap mark, which he has managed to reduce from 145 to 138.
That’s a mark which Roman de Senam can win off - and there was some support for him last time, when he ran in Caspian Caviar gold cup.
He was unluckily brought down that day - but tomorrows race represents a significant drop in class.
A little like Sebastapol in the 1:20 - if he gets his ground, then he will be hard to beat.
It’s also not easy to pick out a specific danger.
Red Risk, for Paul Nichols, could be the main one.
He’s not obviously well handicapped - but the booking of Angus Cheleda means he will get a 7lb allowance, and in a tight handicap, that could be crucial.
I would expect Schiehallion Munro to beat Return Ticket.
That’s what happened when they met in March - and on precisely the same terms tomorrow, I would expect the form to be upheld.
There is an argument that he shouldn't beat Cool Mix, as he finished well behind that one, when they met at Wetherby in October.
However, Schiehallion Munroe was making his seasonal debut, whereas Cool Mix was race fit.
On 5lb better terms - and with his fitness now assured, I would expect Schiehallion Munroe to reverse that form and possibly provide the biggest threat to Remain de Senam.


Exeter

1:40

This isn’t a race that I’ve got a particularly strong opinion on…
Pure Bliss has been installed the early favourite - and having won her 2 hurdles races - the most recent, over tomorrows course and distance and on heavy ground - it’s easy to see why…
The tricky bit is judging whether an opening mark of 125 is fair…
I’d probably be inclined to oppose her with either Lily the Pick or Lady KK.
The former won on her handicap debut in the Exeter mud - and has run 3 reasonable races since. That said, her mark has subsequently edged up 7lb, without her winning.
Lady KK will be making her handicap debut after just 2 runs over hurdles.
In the first of them she ran Emmpresive Lady to 3 lengths in receipt of 3lb.
That one is now rated 120 - suggesting Lady KK should be rated around 113.
She is actually rated 108 - so could have 5lb in hand, plus scope for improvement.
At around 6/1, she currently looks the best bet in the race.

2:15

Another race, where I’ve not got a strong opinion…
Westend Story is probably the one that appeals most - though whether I’d want to take 4/1 about a horse that has fallen/unseated in it’s last 3 races, is a different matter !
What I do think, is that if he can overcome his jumping issues, he should be better than his current mark of 132.
That said, it would be no surprise if his confidence was a bit of an issue.
Aside from him, then it’s hard to construct a solid case for any of the other runners, as fencing experience is minimal.
Wagner is a winner pointer, who switches to fences having acquired a handicap mark with 3 low key runs over hurdles.
That’s an angle I like.
However, whether he is well handicapped - and how he will cope with the underfoot conditions at Exeter - is anyones guess.
A watching race, I think…

2:50

Ask me Early is well fancied for this, following a comfortable win in a decent race at Chepstow,
I quite fancied him that day - and he was backed in to favouritism in a race where a
favouritism in a race where quite a lot of guesswork was required.
Ultimately he was a good winner - and a 6lb ratings rise doesn’t look overly punitive.
He looks to set the race standard.
That said, he may face a strong rival in Hold that Thought.
He finished third on his most recent outing, in a strong novice handicap at Ascot.
He runs off the same mark tomorrow - and may well appreciate the heavy ground (he won over hurdles at Lingfield, in similar conditions).
Muckamore and Mr Clarkson are the 2 other novices in the race - and they can both be given chances.
The former disappointed on his chasing debut at Market Rasen - but should be better for that run; whilst the latter looked like going very close last time at Taunton - until he unseated his rider at the second last.
The other 4 runners are more experienced - and whilst that might help in the prevailing conditions, I’ll be a little surprised if one of the unexposed runners doesn’t come home in front.