After a completely dry week, the ground at Kempton tomorrow is described as
‘good’ (and unlike at Newbury on Sunday, I actually believe that is what it will
be !).
It’s not likely to be quite as quick at Newcastle or Fairyhouse -
but I doubt it will be much worse than ‘soft’ at either venue…
Unfortunately, there aren’t many races that I can target for bets…
Of the 5 races covered on terrestrial TV, only 2 are handicaps - with
the other 3, novice events.
As a consequence, I will be looking at the none
televised races to see if I can find any other bets.
There are a couple
of decent handicaps at both Kempton and Newcastle, which might provide
opportunities and I will preview them in addition to the televised races, if
times allows…
Kempton
1:15 The opening race
on the Kempton card won’t be shown on terrestrial TV - but it is a fair class 3
handicap.
As is often the case in these races, the top of the market is
dominated by unexposed horses, with Diocletian installed the early favourite.
He’s only run in 3 novice events over hurdles - but he has far more
experience on the flat, where he is rated 98.
If he can match that rating
over hurdles, he will be able to run to a mark in the 140s.
He runs in his
first handicap tomorrow, off a mark of 126 - so could easily have a stone in
hand.
He should also be suited by quick ground and the relatively sharp
Kempton track.
Of course, his inexperience could catch him out - but if it
doesn’t, then he will be hard to beat…
Gunsight Ridge has the same level of
experience as Diocletian over hurdles - but no flat racing experience to fall
back on…
He ran second to Gowel Road last time - and that one franked the
form when winning at Newbury on Sunday.
Gunsight Ridge looks attractively
handicapped with an opening mark of 122 - though quick ground at Kempton may not
suit him, in the way it should suit Diocletian.
Major Dundee has a similar
profile to Gunsight Ridge.
He’s run 4 times over hurdles - and whilst it’s
not easy to get an handle on his form, I would expect him to show improvement,
on his first run in a handicap.
Ecco has some solid handicap form - and
probably sets the standard for the race.
He’s run well in 4 handicaps this
season - and it’s easy to see him doing the same again tomorrow.
However, he
does look vulnerable to an improver…
Encore Champs could be interesting,
back over hurdles on his first run for Dan Skelton.
He’s not badly treated
on the from he showed for Warren Greatrex - though he will need to have improved
for the stable switch, if he is to win (which he may well do).
Hometown Boy
looks the most interesting of the outsiders.
He ran McFabulous close at
Market Rasen last February - before finishing a fair way behind the same horse,
a month later.
However McFabulous is now rated 158 - so off a mark of just
130, Hometown Boy should have a very good chance - provided he is fit enough to
do himself justice after nearly a year on the sidelines.
1:50
Only 4 go to post for the Pendil novice chase - and with Son of
Camas rated at least 10lb inferior to all of his rivals, this effectively looks
a 3 horse contest.
There were only 7 declared at the 5 day stage - and it
had the look of a race which might cut up.
However, the tricky thing then
was figuring out which ones would actually run (as there were few early clues)
Of the 3 main protagonists, then both Coole Cody and GA Law like to make
the running.
That suggests the race could be run to suit Tamaroc du Mathan
(who likes to be held up) - and I could foresee that being the case.
The
only trouble is, second guessing tactics in a small field race, is always
fraught with danger.
I’ll be a little surprised if Coole Cody is headed
early - but GA Law could be quite happy to take a lead from him.
In fact, he
may benefit from it - and if that proves to be the case, then he may prove hard
to beat.
There is very little on official ratings, between GA Law and
Tamaroc du Mathan - so the race could easily be decided by jockeyship or
jumping.
If forced to play, I would probably side with GA Law - as this
looks the perfect test for him and I suspect he’s been targeted at the race.
However, obtaining a price of 2/1 will be a challenge - and in the
circumstances, I’m probably going to just watch…
2:25This
is likely to be the final significant trial for the Triumph hurdle - and it’s no
surprised to see Tritonic installed a short priced favourite.
He is very
decent on the flat (rated 99) and was made a short priced favourite on his
hurdling debut at Ascot, last month.
It did look as if that race might have
got away from him, as under an enterprising ride, Casa Loupi appears to have
broken away, approaching the final flight.
However, Tritonic finished really
strongly and ran him down close home, to ultimately end up a decisive winner.
With that experience under his belt - and at more suitable course, on more
suitable ground, he’s going to be hard to beat.
That said, I was very taken
by Casa Loupi.
He too was making his hurdling debut - and whilst he is rated
30lb inferior to Tritonic on the flat, you wouldn’t have known it.
I guess
it remains to be seen whether he was flattered to bustle up Tritonic to such an
extent.
My initial feeling was that there was no fluke about it - but we are
likely find out either way, tomorrow…
Honneur D’Ajonc was a little unlucky
not to win over course and distance, at Christmas.
He fell at the last, when
in the lead and looking likely to score.
However, the strength of that form
is debatable - and I wouldn’t be surprise if a couple of the hurdling debutantes
did better tomorrow…
Paso Doble represents the Paul Nichols yard: whilst
John Locke is trained by Dan Skelton.
Both are reasonable animals on the
flat (rated in the 80s) - and look the type to do well over hurdles.
Nichols
has a particularly good record in this race - so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise
if Paso Doble ran really well.
Margarets Legacy is the final one of
interest.
He is trained by Hugo Merienne - and is unbeaten in 2 starts over
hurdles in France.
Clearly, his form is virtually impossible to assess - but
it’s very interesting that he has been sent over to run in this race
(particularly in the current climate).
He could only be a speculative play -
but if the price was big enough, he might warrant a small risk…
3:00Cape Gentleman is the really interesting one in this…
He was a comfortable winner of the Irish Cesarewich in October, on only his
second run in the country.
He then made a sparkling winning hurling debut at
Punchestown in December - and on the back of that, was quite well fancied for a
grade 1 at the Dublin Racing festival.
However, after travelling nicely to
the home turn that day, he quickly weakened out of things and was pulled up.
That race was over 2m6f, on heavy ground - tomorrow, he will be tackling 2
miles on quick…
It is arguable that tomorrows race won’t be a sufficient
stamina test for a horse who has won over 2 miles on the flat.
However, he’s
not looked short of pace to me….
I’m sure this is primarily a fact finding
mission for Emmit Mullins: with the object of the exercise being to establish
whether the horse should run at Cheltenham in the Supreme (over 2 miles) or the
Ballymore (over 2m5f).
I think he’ll have the pace for the Supreme - but we
should find out more tomorrow…
Atholl Street and Calic, head the home
defence.
They are trained by Paul Nichols and Dan Skelton respectively, and
are unbeaten in 3 hurdle races between them.
It’s hard to choose between the
pair - and in truth, hard to choose between them and Cape Gentleman.
Outside
of the ‘big 3’, Son of Red looks the most interesting.
He’s only a 4 year
old - and so receives a 6lb weight allowance from his older rivals.
He’s not
run for a couple of months - and this is almost certainly a prep for Cheltenham
(where he is likely to run in the Boodles).
I’ll be a little surprised if he
is good enough to win - but less surprised if he runs a nice race and is placed.
3:35
18 will go to post for the Close Brother chase (the
Racing Post chase, to us old timers !) - and it looks an absolute cracker !
It’s not easy to even narrow the field down to a manageable number - as
it really does look ultra competitive.
Cap de Nord is the early
favourite - and whilst you have to respect his chance, the fact is, he’s
creeping up the weights - and hasn’t won his last 2.
Admittedly he did put
up fine performances in defeat - but he has to be vulnerable - and a price of
6/1 is too short…
Neither Al Dancer or Black Corton make appeal at single
figure prices - so this should be a race to get involved with (for the Matrix,
at very least).
Clondaw Castle is of interest, on his first try at 3 miles.
He’s look an improved performer this season over 2m4f - and hasn’t been
disgraced in 2 recent runs in graded company.
Tom George has a fine record
in this race - and it looks significant that Johnny Burke has chosen Clondaw
Castle ahead of Double Shuffle (who could be given a fair chance).
Fingerontheswitch is the next one of interest, under a feather weight.
He won over course and distance, last January - before running a close
second in the Sky Bet chase, off the mark he races off tomorrow.
He’s not
done much on his 3 runs since then - but they have been on heavier ground than
he will encounter tomorrow.
The Butcher Said is also interesting.
He ran
well to a point in this seasons Sky bet chase - the point being the third last !
He made a mistake there - and then weakened quickly.
It’s therefore
interesting to see that he has subsequently undergone wind surgery.
If that
has the desired effect - then on tomorrows better ground, I could also see him
running very well…
Aso has to have a chance, following his last time out
second at Warwick.
That showed he was back in form - and off a mark of 155,
he is handicapped to do some damage.
However, the 3 mile trip is a worry -
and whilst I could see him running well, I struggle more to see him winning.
The trip may also be the issue for Erick le Rouge.
I suggested him on
Monday as an ante-post play in the race - and he still looks of interest.
However, the race hasn’t cut up at all - and whilst he does probably
represents a bit of value at around 25/1, he is a speculative call.
He has
the backclass to run really well - and loves the track. However, he’s been badly
out of form - whilst the wind op and blinkers hint at issues.
A few of the
others can be given half chances - but in truth, it really is that kind of a
race…
Newcastle
3:15
In addition to Erick le Rouge at Kempton,
I also suggested Salty Boy in this, as an ante-post play on Monday.
He
was a 12/1 shot at the time - but is now less than half that price.
I guess
that’s good news for those of you who managed to back him (assuming it has no
negative effect on your accounts !) - but it severely lessens his appeal as an
official bet.
Ofcourse, it’s the sort of things that happens all the time
(and which I was bemoaning last Saturday) - so I’ll just have to see how things
look in the morning and decide if he still represents any value.
In
terms of his chance: then I think he has a fair one.
He looks as if he will
be perfectly suited by tomorrows test - and only has a feather weight to carry.
That said, he is no certainty - and 5/1 in a competitive 12 horse race, is
plenty short enough.
Sams Adventure is a similar price - and as I said on
Monday, he should have a similar chance.
He finished just over 6 lengths
ahead of Salty Boy when winning at Haydock on his penultimate outing - and is
7lb worse off tomorrow.
There’s no reason why he shouldn’t run well - but
that’s what the market tells you…
Crosspark won the corresponding race 2
years ago (hurray !) - but will have his work cut out to follow up, off a 15lb
higher mark (particularly as he is now 11).
Crossley Tender looks more
interesting.
He has been running well all season - and whilst his rating
keeps on going up, so do the level of his performances.
He will be trying a
marathon trip for the first time tomorrow - but it could bring about further
improvement and he certainly can’t be dismissed…
Big River is an enigmatic
character, who can never be ruled out over marathon trips - but you’d need a
generous price, if you were to support him; whilst Springfield Fox would have a
good chance on last years form - but has been very disappointing this campaign.
Maybe first time blinkers will spark him back to life…
The Dutchman could
get the run of the race from the front - but would really prefer softer ground.
As a consequence, Strong Economy could be the most interesting outsider.
He tends to only run at Ayr - and in 21 career starts, has not previously
run outside Scotland !
However, that doesn’t mean he can’t perform elsewhere
- he’s just never been given the chance.
Newcastle is a similar course to
Ayr, so I doubt it will cause him any issues.
Whether he will be good enough
to win, remains to be seen - but he’s in good form and is certainly of some
interest, trying a marathon trip for the first time.
3:50
This race has attracted a relatively modest turn out for a class 2
race - with a maximum of 7, set to go to post...
Fransham has been
installed the early fav - and whilst that is understandable on account of his
recent good form, he does look vulnerable off a career high mark.
He’s
actually a pound higher than when beaten last time at Kempton - and if he does
win, it won’t reflect too well on tomorrows opposition !
Hooligan is
interesting - on just his fourth run over hurdles.
He too was beaten last
time - but that was on heavy ground at Exeter, up against a course specialist.
I wouldn’t judge him too harshly on that.
On the flip side, it’s hard to
gauge just how good he is…
Forest Bihan is best known nowadays as a a chaser
- and he’s a pretty useful one.
He won off a mark of 149 at Aintree last
season - so off a mark of 143 tomorrow he clearly could be well handicapped.
However that assumes he can run to a similar level over hurdles - and that
he’s in any kind of form.
He fell on his first 2 starts this season - and
whilst he did run better last time, that was in an AW ‘jumpers bumper’.
The
fact he will have Oakley Brown in the saddle, claiming 7lb, is a big positive -
but whether it will make sufficient difference, remains to be seen.
Of the
others, then Bon Reteur will be having his first run for Nicky Richards, having
transferred over from Willie Mullins. I’ll be impressed (and surprised) if he’s
improved for the switch of stables.
Whilst Stainsby Girl, Northern Beau and
Ask Himself, shouldn’t really be good enough to win a class 2 race.
Then
again, as I inferred at the start of the race preview, this isn’t a particularly
strong race for the class…
4:25
This race looks a little
stronger than the previous one - despite being a class lower !
3 horses
are disputing favouritism - and Seemorelights looks the most interesting of the
trio.
He’s also the least experienced, having run just twice previously over
fences.
Both of those races were earlier this season - and whilst they were
both small field contests, they contained some useful performers.
Seemorelights finished second to Elvis Mail in the first of them; and then
third behind Marown.
Both of those race winners are talented performers -
and off a mark of just 125, Seemorelights looks attractively handicapped.
Clan Legend and Ascot de Bruyere are the two other market leaders - and
whilst they can both be given a chance, they are more exposed and appear to have
little in hand of the handicapper.
Informateur can also be given a chance,
dropped back in trip having failed to get home last time at Catterick over half
a mile further.
That said, a couple of the outsiders look potentially more
interesting…
Fortified Bay is back down to the mark he won off, over
tomorrows course, last January.
He’s not done much since then - but the
fitting of a first time visor is a very interesting move, for a horse who won
the first time cheek pieces were applied.
Whilst Last Goodbye won at the
Dublin Racing festival 3 years ago.
He’s not done a lot since - but his mark
has plummeted as a consequence.
He showed a bit on his second run for Sam
England at Doncaster in December, and if he can build on that, then he’s a
potential danger to everything, back at a more suitable trip.
Fairyhouse
There are three Grade 3 races on the Fairyhouse card -
and whilst the opening juvenile hurdle, makes limited appeal - the other 2
contests are quite interesting.
That said, both have attracted relatively
small fields - so I’ll be a little surprised if either one yields an early bet…
1:45
Whilst there are 6 declared runners for the Red
Mills trial hurdle, the bottom 2 look completely outclassed.
With the
distance appearing on the short side for both Sixshooter and Durasso (unless
first time blinkers fire him up), then this effectively looks a match between
Jason the Militant and Petite Mouchoir.
On official ratings, Petite Mouchoir
is 2lb superior to Jason the Militant - however he will be receiving 9lb from
him tomorrow.
That should make it an open and shut case - however, whereas
Petite Mouchoir is in the twilight of his career, Jason the Militant is still on
the up.
Whether he will be able to bridge that 11lb gap, remains to be seen
- but there is definitely a question to be answered.
Things are confused
even further by the fact that both horses like to make the running.
As a
consequence, it could easily end up a race where tactics are crucial.
In the
circumstances, it would be hard to get involved - though if Petite Mouchoir were
to drift to around 5/2, I’d be sorely tempted :)
2:52
There is one less runner in the Bobbyjoe chase - however, all 5 have
got some kind of a chance.
It doesn’t seem 12 months since Acapello
Bourgeois took the 2020 renewal of this race (mainly because not much has
happened since then !) - and there is a good chance he will follow up tomorrow.
That said, he should have his work cut out based on official ratings - and I
certainly wouldn’t entertain backing him at around 6/4.
Burrows Saint is a
similar price - and would be the more attractive of the pair.
He won the
Irish National as a novice, nearly 2 years ago - but has only run twice over
fences subsequently (and one of those runs was in France).
As a consequence
he has a fair bit to prove - though in Willie Mullins he is trained by a man
well capable of getting him right when it matters.
I can’t muster much
enthusiasm for either of the JP Mcmanus owned pair: Anibale Fly or The Long
Mile. I suspect both are running as preps for springtime targets.
However,
the remaining runner, Tout est Permis is quite interesting…
The trip is a
slight concern with him - as is his recent form - however, based on official
ratings, he has every chance.
He’s not been at his best on his 2 latest
starts - but he put up some credible efforts early in the campaign and if he can
recapture that level of form he should be right in the mix.
