Feb 21st - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets

If you plan to back the Matrix bets in the Betfaie hurlde (3:35), I would suggest using the exchanges and taking your time.
You are likely to be able to beat all of the advised odds (best bookmaker prices)

Matrix bets

Newbury

2:25
Secret Investor 2 units win 10/1

3:35
Soaring Glory 2 units win 15/2
Milkwood 2 units win 12/1
On to Victory 2 units win 20/1
Galice Macalo 2 units win 22/1
Ballinsker 2 units win 50/1

4:10
Thegallantway 5 units win 5/1


Best bets

Newbury

4:10
Thegallantway 0.5pt win 5/1

There’s some really good racing today - particular at Newbury - but finding a strong bet, was very hard…

Whilst I was happy enough to throw a few darts at the Betfair hurdle, realistically, most of the 23 runners could win - and even with 5 stabs, it’s quite feasible that I’ll miss the target completely.

It’s a different issue with both the Denman chase and Game Spirit chase, where the likely result is quite obvious - but the betting reflects that.

As a consequence, I’ve had to look outside the televised races, to find the days only Best bet - hopefully you all managed to get a price on him.

Here’s the thinking behind todays suggestions…


Newbury

I did intend to get involved with the 1:50 race - but I changed my mind on the horse I wanted to support - and the price went on my new fancy.
My original intention was to suggest Es Perfecto - but I fear he may be having a prep run for Cheltenham (he’s not been seen for 3 months).
I therefore decided to switch to Dhowin - but I arrived at the party too late - and his 10:00 price of 13/2 was too short…
There are quite a few others, for whom a decent case can be made (Sizeable Sam, Silent Assistant, Palmers Hill) - plus a similar number of more exposed horses who lurk on potentially dangerous marks (Howling Milan, Vive le Roi, Commanche Red).
I’ll probably cover a few of them at best prices on the exchanges - but there is no official selection in the race.

Clan des Obeaux should win the 2:25 - but…
Paul Nichols is very bullish about his chances - and dismissive of the chance of Secret Investor. However, on the book, there should be very little between the pair (at the adjusted weights).
Kalashnikov also has a chance - but he is now half the price of Secret Investor (which is wrong).
There’s been a lot of money for Cepage; whilst Lostintranslation is a huge drifter (out to 6/1).
That’s understandable - but as Goshen showed yesterday, they can bounce back…

I was tempted by Sceau Royal in the 3:00 - but I’ve resisted.
He needs decent ground - and whilst I think he will get it, I can’t be sure.
He has also disappointed a few times over fences - so I see minimal margin in a price of 3/1.
It’s surprising to see Greaneteen out to 4/1 - presumably on the back of Paul Nichols comments. If he comes in for late support, then I think he will win.
By contrast, Nichols is keen on the chances of Magic Saint - and I could see him running well.

I’ve taken 5 against the field in the Betfair hurdle (3:35).
I made the case for each, in last nights preview - so I won’t add to that.
I think the market has them in the right order (Soaring Glory the most likely of the 5: Ballinsker, the least) - however, I’ve staked them all the same for the Matrix, because I think the greater value is with the bigger priced ones.

I’ve made The Gallantway the sole Best bet of the day, in the 4:10 race.
I didn’t cover the race in last nights preview - but that was purely down to a lack of time.
It did look to be the race with the best betting shape (for me !), so I’d examined it quite closely…
It’s no surprise to see Enrilo favourite - and he does appear potentially well handicapped.
However, he was pulled up on his most recent run (admittedly in grade 1 company) - and just doesn’t strike me as the most hardy of battlers…
Mill Green could be a danger - based on his hurdles form. However he is making his chasing debut today - and that is quite a big ask.
Hold the Note is well handicapped - but has become disappointing.
If a wind op rejuvenates him he will go close - but he does appear to be running out of excuses.
It’s a similar story with both Ballymoy and Rockpoint.
Both were good horses - but have run disappointingly in a number of recent races.
Which leave The Gallantway…
He’s on an upward curve, having run well on his 2 chase starts this season.
He finished third to Ofalltheginjoints and St Barts at Exeter; and then filled the same position behind St Barts and Versatility, at Newbury.
He looks guaranteed to run his race - unlike any of his rivals !
That’s not to say he will hack up - as I’m sure at least a couple of the others will run well.
However, he is the solid option in the race - and therefore the Best bet.

Market Rasen

I never had any intention of getting involved with the 2:05 race.
Minella Drama sets a good standard - and is the most likely winner.
However, he’s the even money favourite, so makes no appeal from a betting perspective.

The 3:15 race is slightly more appealing as a betting medium - particularly as the 3 market leaders are all drifting.
If forced off the fence, I’d probably side with Gipsy de Choisel - but even at 7/2, he’s easy enough to resist.

Navan

I got closer to suggesting a bet in the Boyne hurdle (2:47) - and if I had done, it would have been Beacon Edge.
I think Fury Road is a vulnerable favourite - which makes it a race of potential interest.
However, I also respect the chance of French Dynamite: whilst none of the outsiders can be completely dismissed.
Ultimately it came down to price - and 10/3 on Beacon Edge is a bit too tight (at 4/1+, I’d be interested).
What I have done, is put Beacon Edge and French Dynamite in forecasts.
With B365, both ways paid 14/1 - so 7/1 on the reverse.
That struck me as a fair bet…