The Aintree Grand National meeting signified the end of yet another TVB season…
It’s always a tough meeting to bet at - and that was certainly the case this year !It’s also harder for me to find bets, when I have to look at meetings on multiple consecutive days.
There just isn’t the time for me to mull over potential bets, in the same way I can do, on standard weekends (1 or 2 days).
As a consequence, there were relatively few official bets across the 3 days…
Thursday
In addition to the anticipated issues (horses backing up after tough races at Cheltenham etc.), there was also uncertainty regarding the state of the ground on the opening day.
There had been well documented watering in the week leading up to the meeting, and the impact of that, remained to be seen…
That caused me to back off the bets a little - and I just issued 2 Best bets on the day.
I was also unable to issue as many Matrix bets as I would have liked - the early bookmaker prices being much lower than they should have been, due to enhanced place terms.
Mister Fisher was the first Best bet of the day - and I was quite keen on him in a race which I didn’t think would take too much winning.
Rather surprisingly, he set out to make all and was still in the lead and going nicely, when he took off too early at the final fence on the first circuit and made a bad blunder.
As was the case at Cheltenham (where I also suggested him) that seemed to badly affect his confidence and he unseated at the very next fence.
The confidence of the horse is clearly fragile - even if he does have plenty of ability…
It was interesting, that Nico de Boinville subsequently said that he felt Mister Fisher was distracted by a bank of cameramen at the fence - and he felt they caught his eye and caused him to take off too soon.
In truth, even without the mishap, I’m not sure he would have beaten Clan des Obeaux, as that one bounced right back to his best.
That said, as at Cheltenham, I suspect Mister Fisher was the second best horse in the race
As a consequence, don’t be too surprise if I put him up again at some point next season !
Song of Someone was the only other Best bet on the day.
I felt his race would take a bit of winning - but as a young, progressive horse who had been layed out for the race, I thought he might be able to progress past his rivals.
Alas, that’s not how it worked out…
In fact the writing was on the wall, literally from flag fall, as he needed rousting along just to maintain a position on the run to the first hurdle.
I’ve no idea what’s happened to him, as he used to be an enthusiastic traveller.
Maybe something is hurting and stopping him from wanting to exert himself - or maybe it’s an issue in his head.
I suspect the next time we see him, he’ll be sporting some kind of head gear.
Even with him effectively out of the race, there was still some interest for the Matrix, as I had covered on both Buveur D’air and Silver Streak.
Buveur Dair was well backed in the final few minutes before the off, and travelled through the race will all his old panache.
However, he was tracking Jason the Militant and when that one fell at the fifth last, Buveur Dair was left in the lead.
That wasn’t ideal - nor was the broadside the riderless Jason the militant gave him jumping the third last !
That combination pretty much did for Buveur Dair - whilst Jason the Militant then rubbed salt in the wound by giving the potentially recalcitrant Abracadabras a galloping companion on the run in !
Some things are just not meant to be…
The only other official bets on the day, were in the Foxhunters, where I had dutched 3: Some Man, Latenightpass and Cat Tiger.
Turning in, it looked as if one of them had to win, as they were in a group of 5 that had broken away - and the other 2 were under pressure !
Approaching the last, Some Man began to tire - but the race still looked likely to lie between Latenightpass and Cat Tiger.
Both traded odds on IR - but ultimately couldn’t withstand the renewed effort of outsider Cousin Pascal and he got back up on the run in.
It had to be seen to be believed - but summed up the luck the Matrix selections have endured for the most of the season…
It was therefore kind of inevitable that in the race I decided not to cover with the Matrix (due to poor early odds), my short list of 6, all finished in the first 8 places - and managed a 1,2,3.
I really do need to find a better way of getting the Matrix to work, in big field handicaps…
Friday
Whilst I had more confidence on the state of the ground, going into day 2 of the meeting - I struggled to find many bets and once again, ended up with just 2 Best bets and a few for the Matrix.
Do you Job was the first of the Best bets to run - and I felt he represented some value in an opening looking novice hurdle.
I’d been with him on his previous run at Kelso - and the parallels between the 2 races, turned out to be quite spooky !
As at Kelso, Do your Job was relatively well backed, pre-race.
The travelled strongly through the race; made his effort at the second last - and was run out of things, after the last.
On each occasion he traded close to even money IR - but could only manage to finish runner up.
It’s not right to say he was unlucky - because he wasn’t.
That said, he ran really well on each occasion - but was unfortunate, to bump into a better rival.
This time is was Belfast Banter - and the real irony with him was that he had denied Petite Mouchoir for us at Cheltenham.
If there was an award for the least popular horse during the TVB season, then I suspect he would be a short price to scoop it !
Caribean Boy was the only other Best bet on the day - in the Topham.
However, he was messed about a bit pre-race by a couple of false starts - and once the race got under way, it was quickly clear that he didn’t fancy the big fences.
Some horses take to them: others don’t - and he didn’t !
I’d also covered Glen Forsa in the Matrix - but he didn’t do any better, and was pulled up not long after half way.
The only other bets on the day, were for the Matrix.
I suggested Houx Gris in Do your Job’s race but sadly, he suffered a fatal fall at the fourth hurdle.
In the opener, I suggested Master Debonair on his debut for Harry Fry - but a pre-race BF drift from 25 to 60, told the tale with him...
This was another race which I would have liked to cover via the Matrix (and in which I would have sided with the winner !) - but again there was no edge at the early prices.
The final 2 Matrix bets were in Mildmay novice chase - and whilst The Big Breakaway was never travelling, Espoir de Romay looked the most likely winner until capsizing at the second last.
He was yet another Matrix bet to trade odds on IR - and lose.
They really have encountered dreadful luck this season…
Just to balance things out, I didn’t deploy the Matrix on the final race of the day - and if I had, it would have lost…
That said, it would have been on the second and third - plus a horse that looked likely to win until it fell at the second last !
I think that was bad luck off setting Sods law !! (or vice versa !)
Saturday
The final day of the meeting - and indeed of the 2020-21 TVB season !
Once again there were just 2 Best bets on the day - but I put that mainly down to fatigue !
With a little time I could probably have found a couple more - but the endless cycle of study, writing and watching, doesn’t allow much time for space to think things through (and you need that, if you are to find the best Best bets ! )
That said, I still issued 2 Best bets which I felt very happy with - and I was cautiously optimistic that I’d end the season with at least one winner…
Diol Ker was the first of them to run - and even though he was in a seemingly tough race, I really thought he could win.
There was a slight doubt in my mind concerning the ground - but that was about it !
And turning in, I was still feeling pretty confident.
He was travelling nicely in behind the leader - whilst some of the others were starting to struggle.
However, on the run to the second last, those around him began to quicken - and he didn’t.
Instead he was overtaken by around half a dozen horses - and in a few strides, his race was over.
It was very disappointing - particularly as there was no obvious reason for it (other than him not being good enough !).
As a consequence, it all came down to Burrows Saint in the Grand National.
Again, I was pretty confident pre-race - and to be honest, all the way through the race, until the home turn.
My eyes were never off Burrows Saint - and he barely missed a beat throughout.
I couldn’t be sure how the other major players were going - but I knew it unlikely that any where going as well as him.
With his stamina assured, I really did think it a case of how far !
But then, as with Diol Ker, in a matter of strides - it all went wrong.
Again, I’ve no idea why. But having looked sure to win - or at least go very close - on the run to the second last (he touched 2.2 IR), he was beaten on the run to the final fence.
I found it quite bizarre - almost disorienting (that’s how much I get into it !).
He did manage to cling on to fourth - with one of the saving Matrix bets - Any second now - a place ahead of him in third.
None of the other Matrix bets made it round (with The Long Mile paying the ultimate price).
It was all a bit disappointing - even if I’ve been in the game long enough to know that it happens !
Llandinabo Lad was the only other Bet on the day - for the Matrix.
He represented great value at the prices, on his form with My Drogo - but stopped as if shot, having led to the home turn.
There may be an issue with the Tom Symonds yard (the run of Song of Someone was also particularly bad).
In the other races on the afternoon, the Hometown Boy was another one missed by the Matrix; whilst Happygolucky could arguably have been a Best bet, in a race where I was struggling to find anything to beat him.
It all suggested that maybe I would benefit from a break.
I think 6 months should enable me to get the batteries fully recharged
TVB.
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