Covering 4 consecutive days of racing over the festive period, is always a big ask.
The only other time I cover 4 consecutive days, is at the Cheltenham festival.
However, that's a lot easier - because the shape of most of the races in known well in advance - and there’s only one lot of ground, to worry about !
With the weather changing on a daily basis - and 5 meetings to consider - the post Christmas period is much more of a challenge !
Saturday
Things got underway on Boxing day/St Stephens day - and whilst the quality of the action couldn’t be faulted, finding bets wasn’t easy.
I ended up with just a couple of Best bets on the day - but neither managed to trouble the judge…
Spiritofthegames was the first one to run - in the Roland Meyrick at Wetherby.
I expected him to run really well - though wasn’t completely sure he’d have the stamina to last home.
As it happened, we didn’t find out whether his stamina was an issue, as he put in a below par effort and was beaten shortly after entering the home straight.
Maybe the ground was the problem - or maybe he is simply a better horse at Cheltenham.
He’ll likely get a pound or two off his rating - and I’m sure connections will be back at Cheltenham for his next run, hoping for a return to form…
Lostintranslation was the other Best bet on the day - but he ran equally disappointingly…
He was given a relatively prominent ride by Robbie Power - and seemed to be going nicely at half way.
However, in a few strides, he was under pressure - and then beaten…
It transpired after the race, that he had burst a blood vessel - which at least explains the run - even if it is of limited consolation !
I also, covered both Cyrname and Real Steal in the Matrix - but like Lostintranslation, they didn’t manage to complete the course.
If Carlsberg did crap races…!
The only other bets on the day, were a couple for the Matrix, in the novice handicap chase.
However, neither William H Bonney nor Galahad Quest were any match for the much improved Killer Clown…
In terms of ones that got away, then I could possibly have sided with Silver Streak to beat Epatante, from a pure ‘value’ perspective; whilst I would have nominated Shan Blue as the most likely winner of the novice chase - though the price was never there.
That said, the most irritating result of the day was at Wincanton.
I nominated Jacamar as the solid option in the Pertemps qualifier - but I thought that he was was vulnerable to an improver.
There looked to be lots of potential improvers in the race - but non of them materialised and Jacamar came home in front.
Maybe a lesson to learn…
Sunday
Sunday should have been the busiest day of the post Christmas period - so it was a bit annoying that the final declarations weren’t released until Saturday morning (by which time, I was embroiled in the Boxing day action).
I was hoping/expecting that they would be released before Christmas, which would have given me chance to get ahead on things…
More than that, ‘Storm Bella’ then struck on Saturday night - and washed away Chepstow.
When you are struggling for time, studying cards that are subsequently abandoned, is not what you want to be doing !
I did still think I’d found 3 Best bets for the day - but the late defection of Erick le Rouge at Kempton, meant that only 2 of them went to post.
The first was Ten Ten, in the Paddy Power chase at Leopardstown.
I had him down as a good ‘value’ call in an ultra competitive race - so it was a bit of a shock to see him backed in to 13/2 joint second fav !
Generally you need a bit of luck in those kind of races - or you need an inspired ride.
Castlebawn West got the latter from Paul Townend, who made all on a hitherto suspect jumper.
I didn’t think he had much in hand of his mark - and maybe he didn’t.
However, when you jump from fence to fence, at a pace that suits, you are always going to be hard to beat.
By contrast, Ten Ten missed the kick: got stuck on the inside - and didn’t have enough in hand to ever get himself in a challenging position.
I’ve no doubt that he could have done better…
Torigni ended up the only other Best bet on the day, in the finale at Kempton.
I was happy to narrow the field down to 4 - and felt he was the solid one at a decent price (a bit like Jacamar, on Saturday !).
He ran a good race as well - but ultimately was no match for the unexposed Cadzand.
There’s not a lot you can do about those kind of results - I knew it was a possibility before hand, so can have no complaints.
In addition to the Best bets, I used the Matrix to take on a couple of the ‘Big guns’ at Kempton.
I hoped Shishkin might succumb to the pressure exerted by Gumball; whilst I also thought that Altior was vulnerable on his first run of the season.
Unfortunately, I got the first one wrong - and Shishkin looked like a monster, as he tracked Gumball and then brushed him aside.
I won’t be opposing him again in a hurry !
I did read the Altior situation correctly - but I chose the wrong horse to oppose him with.
In fairness, Duc de Genevries ran well - and you would have needed some crystal ball to find the winner, Nube Negra.
The final Matrix bet on the day, was a speculative play on Thedevilscoachman at Leopardstown.
He ran a fair race, without ever looking likely to win.
If his sights are lowered a little - he should be able to score again…
In terms of ones that got away - then there weren’t really any !
If I had issued any more bets, then in all probability, the losses would just have been greater…
Monday
With time seemingly closing in on me from all sides, I decided to opt out of issuing any bets on Monday.
I was struggling to find anything that I could commit fully to - and issuing a few token Matrix bets, would have eaten into valuable study time for Tuesday…
As it turned out (and as Mr Sod would doubtless have predicted !), it wasn’t the best path…
The winner of both of the big races in Ireland, featured on my ‘short lists’ for the respective races.
Flooring Porter wouldn’t have been my main fancy for the staying hurdle - but he would probably have been my second choice.
A Plus TArd on the other hand, probably would have been my first choice…
I stand by the decision to not make either Best bets - as I didn’t feel sufficiently strongly. However, if I had invested a few Matrix units on the 2 races, I think they would have returned modest profits…
If only after timing counted
Tuesday
The final day of a marathon stint - and once again, the weather decided to get involved.
Uncertainty regarding Newbury the evening before, became uncertainty regarding Doncaster on the day.
It does make it very hard to commit to anything in advance - as there is always the feeling that the markets knows that little bit more !
Ultimately I decided to go with just the one Best bet from the UK - along with one in Ireland, which I’d waited a couple of months to place !
The Irish one was on Coeur Sublime, who had been on my radar since his eye catching run in the Morgiana hurdle at Punchestown, in the middle of November.
I felt that he was likely to be a very good bet to reverse the form with the 2 horses who beat him that day: Abracadabras and Saint Roi.
My expectation was that there would be a very small field (approx 5) - and that a false pace might result.
That’s what happened in the Morgiana - and in a similar scenario, I reckon could have come out on top.
However, despite saddling the favourite, Saint Roi, Willie Mullins decide to attack the race mob handed (as he often does !).
Both Sharjah and Saldier appeared in the overnight decs - and I wasn’t expecting either…
I could see that they both had good chances - but I didn’t want to change my long held view on the race (and invite Mr Sod to do his worst !).
I did briefly consider splitting stakes between Coeur and Sharjah - but I was struggling to choose between the Mullins pair.
This is a situation where the Matrix works particularly well.
I was able to stick with my original intention - and cover both Sharjah and Saldier.
In the race itself, Aspire Tower set out to make all - but he was cut down, after jumping the last, by… Sharjah.
Coeur Sublime meanwhile, started in last position - and pretty much stayed there !
It was a frustrating outcome - even if it did result in a profit for the Matrix.
The other Best bet on the day, was Redford Road at Newbury.
I spent a lot of time looking at the race - and eventually came down in favour of him, ahead of my 2 other fancies in the race.
And to be fair, he ran really well - to a point.
That point was the third last fence.
That was when I expected the after burners to kick in - but instead, the petrol gauge started to flicker…
I hoped stamina would be his forte - but instead it was his Achilles heal.
Worse still, neither of the Matrix bets were able to save the day.
A bit like Redford Road, Champagne Court seemed to run out of stamina; whilst it didn’t look soft enough for Django Django to show his form…
In the days other races:
Then whilst I might have suggested Dickie Diver in slightly different circumstances, if I had it would have been another loser.
He ran a massively eye catching race - but was no match for an enterprisingly ridden winner, who didn’t put a foot wrong.
Annie Mc was the only other potential bet on the day - but her price had been shot to bits, by the time I was able to tip.
5/1 last night had become 5/2 - and in truth, I would have been more likely to put a ‘value’ alternative, if I had got involved with the race.
Ofcourse, significant support rarely stops a horse from winning - and it certainly didn’t stop her.
She bolted up by 16 lengths - and will probably get a bit of a ratings rise as a result.
And breath...
TVB
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