Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Newbury
2:40
Redford Road 5 units win 8/1
Django Django 3 units win 9/1
Champagne Court 2 units win 12/1
Leopardstown
2:25
Coeur Sublime 5 units win 25/1
Sharjah 3 units win 7/1
Saldier 2 units win 10/1
Best bets
Newbury
2:40
Redford Road 0.5pt win 8/1
Leopardstown
2:25
Coeur Sublime 0.5pt win 25/1
The weather is making it very hard to get a handle on things
at the moment...
Last night, the suggestion was that todays meeting at Newbury was in jeopardy - but there appeared to be no issues at either Doncaster or Kelso.
Roll on just 12 hours and Newbury is fine - but Doncaster and Kelso both need to pass inspections due to snow !
As I’ve said before, the issue is not only that you are guessing on ground conditions, but there is also uncertainty over runners, which can affect the way a race works out.
All this said, the main bet of the day was always going to be in Ireland - a horse who I’ve had on my radar for a couple of months now - just waiting for today !
I’ve backed him up with a bet in the big race at Newbury - but drawn the line there.
Newbury
I would quite like to have gone with Dickie Diver in the 1:30 - but I can’t…
There are a few reasons for this - some obvious and some more subtle !
The obvious ones are that he is making his seasonal debut - and not all of Nicky Hendersons horses are running as they should (he has a bit of a bug in the yard).
The more subtle one is that if we’d crashed the price on a JP horse, early in the morning, we might have sealed our own fate !
Better we wait until nearer the off - and then take a risk.
I’ll pass an opinion on his chances in todays Live thread (which I will be running !)
The 2:05 race has fallen apart - with 2 key non runners.
It now looks like it should be a match between Clava D’Auge and The Cob.
I’d have a slight preference for the former - but in a 5 horse race, there’s always the chance that tactics will win the day (and we’ve no idea on how they will pan out).
I have to be honest, I turned the 2:40 race round and round in my head…
I started by favouring Champagne Court - but I am worried that he won’t see out the 3m2f trip.
I then switched to Django Dajango (with Jonjo on board !) - but the worry with his is that he may be best on heavy ground (and I don’t expect Newbury to be heavy).
I therefore ended up on Redford Road.
I can see him improving massively for the step up in trip (his sole win under rules, was over 3 miles) - and I suspect he has been campaigned at a shorter trip, in order to acquire a more attractive handicap mark.
As a consequence, he is the main bet in the race - though I want to save on the other 2, for the Matrix.
I can’t see an angle into the 3:15 race.
Wilde About Oscar holds some appeal - but not sufficient to suggest him as a bet.
I’ll look at the race again, nearer the off (by which time, there may have been some market moves)
Doncaster
I was hoping to suggest Annie Mc in the mares chase (1:45) - but at 5/2, someone is having a laugh ! (particularly as Jonjo is at Newbury !).
I honestly thought she would be double that price (and then would have been worthy of support).
With her so strong in the betting, there should be value elsewhere.
I could see My Old Gold drifting to an acceptable price; whilst Chilli Filli is the other one of interest (in fact at 8/1, I would have put her up as a bet).
I’m assuming the ground has gone against Casablanca Mix - though if it has, there is always a chance she will be withdrawn (which will result in a big R4)…
Leopardstown
I was always going to struggle to get involved with the mares race (1:15) because Willie Mullins holds all the aces.
Concertista will probably win - even though she is easy enough to oppose, based purely on the form book.
Minella Melody is of some interest - though probably not sufficient to warrant a bet.
Monkfish should win the 1:50 - but it wouldn’t hugely surprise me if Latest Exhibition beat him.
I struggle to see any of the other 4 winning - unless there is carnage in the race.
For those of you who are following them, I plan to put up an ante post bet in the forum, for the RSA - before this race is run.
Suffice to say, it will look a whole lot better post race, if Monkfish is beaten !
I have long eyed up the Matheson hurdle (2:25) for the big bet of the Christmas period !
As many of you will be aware, I was very keen on Coeur Sublime, following his run in the Morgiana.
I put him up ante-post for the Champion hurdle - but that was mainly because you couldn’t bet ante-post on todays race !
This is the one I really fancied him for - because Leopardstown is more of a speed track (which will suit him better).
The only issue is the ground - I would prefer it to be better than it is.
I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t go very close - but that run from the last to the line, is definitely a worry.
If he is beaten, then I think it might be by one of the Willie Mullins lesser fancied runners.
Both Sharjah and Saldier have the form to win the race - so they are worth covering in the Matrix.
Hopefully however, they will do the decent thing and just follow home Coeur !
Last night, the suggestion was that todays meeting at Newbury was in jeopardy - but there appeared to be no issues at either Doncaster or Kelso.
Roll on just 12 hours and Newbury is fine - but Doncaster and Kelso both need to pass inspections due to snow !
As I’ve said before, the issue is not only that you are guessing on ground conditions, but there is also uncertainty over runners, which can affect the way a race works out.
All this said, the main bet of the day was always going to be in Ireland - a horse who I’ve had on my radar for a couple of months now - just waiting for today !
I’ve backed him up with a bet in the big race at Newbury - but drawn the line there.
Newbury
I would quite like to have gone with Dickie Diver in the 1:30 - but I can’t…
There are a few reasons for this - some obvious and some more subtle !
The obvious ones are that he is making his seasonal debut - and not all of Nicky Hendersons horses are running as they should (he has a bit of a bug in the yard).
The more subtle one is that if we’d crashed the price on a JP horse, early in the morning, we might have sealed our own fate !
Better we wait until nearer the off - and then take a risk.
I’ll pass an opinion on his chances in todays Live thread (which I will be running !)
The 2:05 race has fallen apart - with 2 key non runners.
It now looks like it should be a match between Clava D’Auge and The Cob.
I’d have a slight preference for the former - but in a 5 horse race, there’s always the chance that tactics will win the day (and we’ve no idea on how they will pan out).
I have to be honest, I turned the 2:40 race round and round in my head…
I started by favouring Champagne Court - but I am worried that he won’t see out the 3m2f trip.
I then switched to Django Dajango (with Jonjo on board !) - but the worry with his is that he may be best on heavy ground (and I don’t expect Newbury to be heavy).
I therefore ended up on Redford Road.
I can see him improving massively for the step up in trip (his sole win under rules, was over 3 miles) - and I suspect he has been campaigned at a shorter trip, in order to acquire a more attractive handicap mark.
As a consequence, he is the main bet in the race - though I want to save on the other 2, for the Matrix.
I can’t see an angle into the 3:15 race.
Wilde About Oscar holds some appeal - but not sufficient to suggest him as a bet.
I’ll look at the race again, nearer the off (by which time, there may have been some market moves)
Doncaster
I was hoping to suggest Annie Mc in the mares chase (1:45) - but at 5/2, someone is having a laugh ! (particularly as Jonjo is at Newbury !).
I honestly thought she would be double that price (and then would have been worthy of support).
With her so strong in the betting, there should be value elsewhere.
I could see My Old Gold drifting to an acceptable price; whilst Chilli Filli is the other one of interest (in fact at 8/1, I would have put her up as a bet).
I’m assuming the ground has gone against Casablanca Mix - though if it has, there is always a chance she will be withdrawn (which will result in a big R4)…
Leopardstown
I was always going to struggle to get involved with the mares race (1:15) because Willie Mullins holds all the aces.
Concertista will probably win - even though she is easy enough to oppose, based purely on the form book.
Minella Melody is of some interest - though probably not sufficient to warrant a bet.
Monkfish should win the 1:50 - but it wouldn’t hugely surprise me if Latest Exhibition beat him.
I struggle to see any of the other 4 winning - unless there is carnage in the race.
For those of you who are following them, I plan to put up an ante post bet in the forum, for the RSA - before this race is run.
Suffice to say, it will look a whole lot better post race, if Monkfish is beaten !
I have long eyed up the Matheson hurdle (2:25) for the big bet of the Christmas period !
As many of you will be aware, I was very keen on Coeur Sublime, following his run in the Morgiana.
I put him up ante-post for the Champion hurdle - but that was mainly because you couldn’t bet ante-post on todays race !
This is the one I really fancied him for - because Leopardstown is more of a speed track (which will suit him better).
The only issue is the ground - I would prefer it to be better than it is.
I’ll be very disappointed if he doesn’t go very close - but that run from the last to the line, is definitely a worry.
If he is beaten, then I think it might be by one of the Willie Mullins lesser fancied runners.
Both Sharjah and Saldier have the form to win the race - so they are worth covering in the Matrix.
Hopefully however, they will do the decent thing and just follow home Coeur !
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