After all of the issues with the rain, over the past couple of days - I couldn’t believe it when I read that Newburys meeting tomorrow will need to survive an 8:00 inspection due to the threat of - frost !
It would appear that if one type of inclement weather doesn’t get you - then another one just might !
In fairness, frost doesn’t have quite the same effect on the going - though it can result in non runners, which often mess up the shape of races.
I guess no one said it was easy…
What is particularly disappointing, is that the card contains a number of races, which could result in bets (depending on prices etc.).
Certainly, there are more potential opportunities there, than at either Leopardstown or Doncaster.
As a consequence, I will plough on regardless, preview the races on the card that I intended - and keep my fingers crossed that it survives the inspection.
I’ll also preview a few from Doncaster/Leopardstown - so we have something to fall back on, just in case..!
Newbury
1:30
This looks like it could be a particularly hot novice handicap chase…
Demachine has been backed into early favouritism - which is what I expected.
He won a really strong novice handicap chase at Uttoxeter, on his seasonal debut - and then followed up, by scoring again at Ascot.
As a consequence of those 2 victories, his rating has risen by 18lb - but it’s impossible to say whether that will stop him from winning again.
In absolute terms, he looks a 140s horse - and that is what he is now rated.
Ground, course and distance should all be fine for him, so I would expect him to run a big race.
Severano is next in the market.
He too has won a couple of novice handicap chases this season - and whilst he has only risen 13lb in the ratings, he started from a higher point.
As a consequence, he has to run off a mark of 148 tomorrow - and that will be a tough ask.
He could be up to it - but if he is, he will need to be a borderline graded horse…
Earth Moor is another last time out winner.
That was in open company (which often is an easier route for novices) - and he has been raised 8lb for his comfortable victory.
As with Severano, that might be a bit too much…
Dickie Diver is the final one of major interest.
He’s not run for nearly 2 years - and will be making his chasing debut.
However, his last run was in the 2018 Albert Bartlett hurdle - and that was a very hot contest.
He finished 4th that day - beaten 11 lengths by Minella Indo. That one was sent off favourite for todays grade 1 Savills chase !
Just behind Dickie Diver in fifth, was Lisnagar Oscar. That one won last seasons stayers hurdle at the Cheltenham festival !!
There is no reason to think that the form line flatters Dickie Diver - so the question is whether he is fully tuned - and if can he jump a fence…
If the answers to both are positive, he will take a lot of beating off a mark of just 141…
2:05
The defection of Ch’tibello from this race, has taken away a possible angle - and it’s now hard to see beyond the top 3 in the betting…
Choosing between Calva D’Auge, Kateson and The Cob, isn’t easy - and it’s probably not worth spending a lot of time trying to do so, as the rewards on offer won’t be great.
I was impressed by Kateson last time at Aintree.
The race he won was better quality than tomorrows - and he’s only been raised 3lb.
The question is whether the cheek pieces he worse for the first time that day, will be as effective, second time.
If they are, he will probably win - but…
Calva D’Auge and The Cob are both stepping up in class, having been comfortable winners of lesser events, last time.
Again, neither have been savaged by the handicapper for their victories, so have reasonable chances of following up.
I wouldn’t really want to choose between the pair - particularly at the available prices…
It’s hard to make a case for the other 3 - but equally, it’s going to be hard to justify supporting one of the market leaders at the likely prices…
2:40
This is a really competitive class 3 chase - in which plenty of the runners can be given a chance.
Cuban Pete heads the market on the back of wins at Stratford and Hereford.
He was impressive at the latter venue - but has been raised 9lb for that win and this is a much stronger race.
He might be up to defying his new mark - but his early price of around 4/1, is too short..
I’m also not particularly keen on second favourite, Manofthemoutain.
Whilst, with hindsight, he had little chance last time against Frodon and Cloth Cap, I suspect people will read too much into that run.
The bottom line is that he isn’t particularly well handicapped - and would prefer decent ground.
Again, it’s not that he can’t win - just that 6/1 is too short a price…
It’s not as easy to dismiss third favourite, Amateur.
He has an impossible task on last time, up against Sojourn - and will be a threat to all tomorrow, with just 10st on his back.
Redford Road is also of interest.
He also faced an impossible task last time, up against Royal Pagaille at Haydock.
Tomorrow will only be his fourth run over fences - but based on his hurdle runs from last season, his current mark of 132 looks workable.
He should be well suited by 3 miles on soft ground - and it’s easy to see him running a big race.
Champagne Court is another one of interest - now that he’s back on his favoured soft ground.
He was sent off at just 6/1 for the class 1 Badger Ales chase on his penultimate start - but barely travelled a yard.
He ran much better last time, over tomorrows course - when fifth to Cap du Nord in a race which is working out well.
He’s been dropped 2lb for that run - and the softer ground will be a big help.
The worry is the trip - as he’s unproven over 3 miles+.
That said, it wasn’t a lack of stamina that caused his defeat last time, and if he does stay the trip, he should go very close.
Django Django is of interest, based on his win over tomorrows course, in January.
He was very impressive that day - and it’s a little surprising that he’s not gone of from that.
He was certainly backed to do so on his most recent run at Bangor - but ran no kind of a race.
It’s interesting to see that Jonjo O’Neill jnr is on board tomorrow, when he could have gone to Doncaster to ride Annie Mc. A subtle hint, maybe…
Get on the Yaegar and Kings Monarch are two more of potential interest, in a race which really isn’t easy to solve…
3:15
Even though there are only 6 runners, this looks a strong edition of the Challow hurdle…
Bravemansgame and Star Gate are disputing favouritism - and both appear to be high class novice hurdlers.
Certainly, Bravemansgame was impressive when winning a good class novice race at the course, last month; whilst Star Gate was an equally easy winner of the grade 2 Winter novice hurdle at Sandown earlier this month.
The have recorded very similar numbers - so it’s really a question of paying your money and making your choice.
My choice is probably Star Gate.
That said, this isn’t a 2 horse race…
The Glancing Queen is a fascinating contender.
Having consistently shown top class form in bumpers, she successfully made the transition to hurdles last month, when winning at Warwick,
The form of that race doesn’t compare to the form of the market leaders. However, she can be expected to improve for the experience - and the 7lb sex allowance she receives from all of her rivals, could be crucial.
Does he Know probably sets the standard for the race, based on 2 gutsy wins at Cheltenham. That said, it’s a standard which I would expect to be exceeded.
Wilde about Oscar isn’t easy to assess, after facile wins in 2 modest novice hurdles.
However, the very fact that fact Dan Skelton runs him in the race, means his chance has to be respected.
Doncaster
1:45
The high-light of the Doncaster card, is this listed mares chase.
It’s attracted a good quality field - and the state of the ground is likely to be the key factor in how the race works out…
Early favourite, Casablanca Mix, wants decent ground - so if it’s riding soft, she could be in trouble.
On officail ratings, she is the best horse in the field - but it’s not by much, so if conditions go against her, she can probably be opposed.
My Old Gold is only rated 2lb inferior to Casablanca Mix - and she will have no issue with soft ground.
In fact, over 2m4f she probably needs it soft - as otherwise, she may not be quick enough.
She did well to beat Chilli Filli over the trip at Carlisle last time - and the soft ground almost certainly helped her that day.
She also beat Cloth Cap at Doncaster, on soft ground - though that was over 3 miles !
Suffice to say, the wetter it is, the better her chance…
Chilli Filli provides a nice link between Casablanca Mix and My Old Gold; having beaten the former on her seasonal debut, before losing out to the latter, on her second run of the season.
She seems indifferent to the state of the ground - and is weighted to run both horses close.
Annie Mc is the final one of major interest.
She caught my eye last time, when staying on for fifth place behind Chatham Street Lad at Cheltenham.
That was a good effort in a very competitive handicap - and suggested she was re-finding her excellent novice form of last season.
My big issue with her, is that Jonjo O’Neil is not in the saddle.
He’s ridden her in all of her recent races - but has chosen to go to Newbury instead.
That’s either a negative for Annie Mc - or a big positive for Django Django !!
1:45
The high-light of the Doncaster card, is this listed mares chase.
It’s attracted a good quality field - and the state of the ground is likely to be the key factor in how the race works out…
Early favourite, Casablanca Mix, wants decent ground - so if it’s riding soft, she could be in trouble.
On officail ratings, she is the best horse in the field - but it’s not by much, so if conditions go against her, she can probably be opposed.
My Old Gold is only rated 2lb inferior to Casablanca Mix - and she will have no issue with soft ground.
In fact, over 2m4f she probably needs it soft - as otherwise, she may not be quick enough.
She did well to beat Chilli Filli over the trip at Carlisle last time - and the soft ground almost certainly helped her that day.
She also beat Cloth Cap at Doncaster, on soft ground - though that was over 3 miles !
Suffice to say, the wetter it is, the better her chance…
Chilli Filli provides a nice link between Casablanca Mix and My Old Gold; having beaten the former on her seasonal debut, before losing out to the latter, on her second run of the season.
She seems indifferent to the state of the ground - and is weighted to run both horses close.
Annie Mc is the final one of major interest.
She caught my eye last time, when staying on for fifth place behind Chatham Street Lad at Cheltenham.
That was a good effort in a very competitive handicap - and suggested she was re-finding her excellent novice form of last season.
My big issue with her, is that Jonjo O’Neil is not in the saddle.
He’s ridden her in all of her recent races - but has chosen to go to Newbury instead.
That’s either a negative for Annie Mc - or a big positive for Django Django !!
Leopardstown
3 graded events provide the features on the final day at Leopardstown - with the Matheson (2:25) hurdle a fitting climax to the meeting.
1:15
The grade 3 mares hurdle is the first graded action on the card - and it appears to be at the mercy of Concertista.
She was a massively impressive winner of the mares hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and was just as impressive, when making a wining seasonal return in a grade 2 event at Fairyhouse.
She barely came off the bridle to beat Minella Melody, that day - and looked a potential Champion hurdle candidate, in the process.
That said, on official handicap ratings - and on form at Leopardstown in February, she shouldn’t beat Black Tears.
That one beat her by 5 lengths at the Dublin Racing festival in receipt of just 2lb.
She will receive an additional 6lb tomorrow - which suggests that Concertista will have quite a job on.
Black Tears also ran an excellent second to Dame de Compagnie at the Cheltenham festival.
That was in the Coral cup - a much stronger race than the mares hurdle.
In short, Black Tears should really be the bet - and a price of 5/1 is a potential gift.
However, it was in the new year, that Black Tears found her form last season - and the suspicion is it is going to be the same this season.
Certainly, she was well beaten by Buildmeupbuttercup, when she made her seasonal return at Punchestown last month - and she will need to leave that form well behind, if she is going to feature tomorrow.
Buildmeupbuttercup has a chance of placing tomorrow - as does My Sister Sarah.
On official ratings, My Sister Sarah actually has a chance of winning - as at the adjusted weights, she is the equal of Conertista.
I’d also give Minella Melody a chance of at least placing.
She has been trounced by Concertista on 2 of her last 3 runs - but prior to that, had looked seriously impressive.
She’ll need to bounce back - but it’s not impossible that she will do just that…
1:50
The first of the 2 grade 1s on the card, is likely to see Monkfish sent off a very short priced favourite.
He was a game winner of last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival - and made a scintillating chasing debut, when dotting up at Fairyhouse.
There was no doubt he was very impressive that day - but equally, he was sent off at 1/3 and beat virtually nothing.
I do feel that there was an over-reaction to his win - and his current price of 3/1 for the RSA, looks way too short.
Ofcourse, if he’s similarly impressive tomorrow, then it will look more reasonable - but that has yet to happen…
Latest Exhibition finished just a neck behind Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett - so in theory, there should be little between the pair tomorrow.
However, unlike Monkfish, his foray over fences hasn’t gone too well - and he was beaten on his most recent start.
That could either mean that he’s not as good over fences, as he was over hurdles - or that the Albert Bartlett form is not as strong as is thought…
Conflated and Eurobot are the only 2 others in the field, worthy of consideration.
Both are owned by Gigginstown - and the suggestion is that Conflated is the more fancied.
His form over both hurdles and fences, suggests he is a fair sort - but not top class.
I will be a little disappointing if he is good enough to win (though it’s not impossible).
It’s not quite as easy to get a handle on Eurobot - as he has only run twice in almost 2 years.
That said, his form suggests that he is also not from the top drawer…
2:25
Relatively speaking, the Matheson hurdle might not be quite as good as todays Savill chase - but it’s still an excellent renewal.
Most of the main Irish based contenders for the Champion hurdle have turned up - and the race should have a bearing on the big one in March.
Abracadabras and Saint Roi head the market, on the back of their battle in the Morgiana at Punchestown in November.
Abracadbras came out on top that day - but it was a messy race - and the general consensus was that Saint Roi was an unlucky loser.
Certainly that’s how the bookmakers are viewing it, with Saint Roi favoured to gain his revenge.
That said, this is not a 2 horse race.
Neither of the big two have fully convinced at the highest level - and on form, Abracadbaras has it all to do, to beat Aspire Tower.
That one came out on top by over 4 lengths when the pair met at Down Royal in October - so Abracadbras will have his work cut out, just to reverse that form.
Willie Mullins saddles a couple of very interesting sorts, in Sharjah and Saldier.
Sharjah has won the last 2 runnings of this race - and was runner up in last seasons Champion hurdle.
On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race - and it’s not surprising that he has already been backed.
Saldier is almost as interesting. He isn’t seen very often - but when he does appear, he tends to run a big race.
It’s over 400 days since his last outing - but he beat Petite Mouchoir that day.
Whilst on his previous outing, he was in the process of serving it up to subsequent champion hurdle winner Espoir Dallen, when he took a crashing fall at the final flight.
If he is ready to do himself justice, he will be hard to beat.
The final worthy of a mention is Coeur Sublime.
He caught my eye last time, when third to Abracadabra in the Morgiana.
That was hit first run for Gearoid O’Loughlin and he travelled all over his field, on the run to the final flight.
However he didn’t get home that day and ultimately faded in to fourth place.
That could have been caused by a lack of fitness - or by the heavy ground.
If it was the former, then he has a real chance of going close tomorrow - if it was the latter, then the soft ground at Leopardstown may again catch him out.
3 graded events provide the features on the final day at Leopardstown - with the Matheson (2:25) hurdle a fitting climax to the meeting.
1:15
The grade 3 mares hurdle is the first graded action on the card - and it appears to be at the mercy of Concertista.
She was a massively impressive winner of the mares hurdle at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and was just as impressive, when making a wining seasonal return in a grade 2 event at Fairyhouse.
She barely came off the bridle to beat Minella Melody, that day - and looked a potential Champion hurdle candidate, in the process.
That said, on official handicap ratings - and on form at Leopardstown in February, she shouldn’t beat Black Tears.
That one beat her by 5 lengths at the Dublin Racing festival in receipt of just 2lb.
She will receive an additional 6lb tomorrow - which suggests that Concertista will have quite a job on.
Black Tears also ran an excellent second to Dame de Compagnie at the Cheltenham festival.
That was in the Coral cup - a much stronger race than the mares hurdle.
In short, Black Tears should really be the bet - and a price of 5/1 is a potential gift.
However, it was in the new year, that Black Tears found her form last season - and the suspicion is it is going to be the same this season.
Certainly, she was well beaten by Buildmeupbuttercup, when she made her seasonal return at Punchestown last month - and she will need to leave that form well behind, if she is going to feature tomorrow.
Buildmeupbuttercup has a chance of placing tomorrow - as does My Sister Sarah.
On official ratings, My Sister Sarah actually has a chance of winning - as at the adjusted weights, she is the equal of Conertista.
I’d also give Minella Melody a chance of at least placing.
She has been trounced by Concertista on 2 of her last 3 runs - but prior to that, had looked seriously impressive.
She’ll need to bounce back - but it’s not impossible that she will do just that…
1:50
The first of the 2 grade 1s on the card, is likely to see Monkfish sent off a very short priced favourite.
He was a game winner of last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival - and made a scintillating chasing debut, when dotting up at Fairyhouse.
There was no doubt he was very impressive that day - but equally, he was sent off at 1/3 and beat virtually nothing.
I do feel that there was an over-reaction to his win - and his current price of 3/1 for the RSA, looks way too short.
Ofcourse, if he’s similarly impressive tomorrow, then it will look more reasonable - but that has yet to happen…
Latest Exhibition finished just a neck behind Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett - so in theory, there should be little between the pair tomorrow.
However, unlike Monkfish, his foray over fences hasn’t gone too well - and he was beaten on his most recent start.
That could either mean that he’s not as good over fences, as he was over hurdles - or that the Albert Bartlett form is not as strong as is thought…
Conflated and Eurobot are the only 2 others in the field, worthy of consideration.
Both are owned by Gigginstown - and the suggestion is that Conflated is the more fancied.
His form over both hurdles and fences, suggests he is a fair sort - but not top class.
I will be a little disappointing if he is good enough to win (though it’s not impossible).
It’s not quite as easy to get a handle on Eurobot - as he has only run twice in almost 2 years.
That said, his form suggests that he is also not from the top drawer…
2:25
Relatively speaking, the Matheson hurdle might not be quite as good as todays Savill chase - but it’s still an excellent renewal.
Most of the main Irish based contenders for the Champion hurdle have turned up - and the race should have a bearing on the big one in March.
Abracadabras and Saint Roi head the market, on the back of their battle in the Morgiana at Punchestown in November.
Abracadbras came out on top that day - but it was a messy race - and the general consensus was that Saint Roi was an unlucky loser.
Certainly that’s how the bookmakers are viewing it, with Saint Roi favoured to gain his revenge.
That said, this is not a 2 horse race.
Neither of the big two have fully convinced at the highest level - and on form, Abracadbaras has it all to do, to beat Aspire Tower.
That one came out on top by over 4 lengths when the pair met at Down Royal in October - so Abracadbras will have his work cut out, just to reverse that form.
Willie Mullins saddles a couple of very interesting sorts, in Sharjah and Saldier.
Sharjah has won the last 2 runnings of this race - and was runner up in last seasons Champion hurdle.
On official ratings, he is the best horse in the race - and it’s not surprising that he has already been backed.
Saldier is almost as interesting. He isn’t seen very often - but when he does appear, he tends to run a big race.
It’s over 400 days since his last outing - but he beat Petite Mouchoir that day.
Whilst on his previous outing, he was in the process of serving it up to subsequent champion hurdle winner Espoir Dallen, when he took a crashing fall at the final flight.
If he is ready to do himself justice, he will be hard to beat.
The final worthy of a mention is Coeur Sublime.
He caught my eye last time, when third to Abracadabra in the Morgiana.
That was hit first run for Gearoid O’Loughlin and he travelled all over his field, on the run to the final flight.
However he didn’t get home that day and ultimately faded in to fourth place.
That could have been caused by a lack of fitness - or by the heavy ground.
If it was the former, then he has a real chance of going close tomorrow - if it was the latter, then the soft ground at Leopardstown may again catch him out.
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