Apr 10th - Preview for Aintree - Day 3

Grand National day - the final day of the TVB season !

It’s been a bit of a roller-coaster (as always !) - so it would be nice to end on a high.

In truth, the racing doesn’t look ideal for a spectacular finish - but I guess you never know !

In terms of the ground - then yesterday suggested it was on the soft side of good - exactly as it was described !

For the final time this season, here are my early thoughts…


Aintree

1:45

The card opens with a 3 mile handicap hurdle - so it’s not too surprising to see the early market headed by a couple of horse who ran well in the 3 mile handicap hurdle at Cheltenham (the Pertemps final).

One of them is Come on Teddy, who I suggested as a bet in that race.
He ran really well to finish third, having been given a lot to do.
He’s been raised 3lb for that run - but that’s not too onerous - and under a more judicious ride, he should again go close.
Champagne Platinum finished 2 lengths behind Come on Teddy at Cheltenham - and will be 2lb better off tomorrow.
On the book, that means there should be little between them - and it really is a case of you pay your money and make your choice…
Tea Clipper was also placed at the Cheltenham festival - in the Coral cup.
He exceeded expectations in finishing third that day - and it’s interesting that he is stepped up in trip tomorrow.
It’s impossible to know whether that will benefit him - but if it does, he could go very close.
Janika finished just behind Tea Clipper in fifth - and it should again be close between the pair of them.
That was Janikas second run over hurdles, having been previously campaigned over fences.
He is rated 13lb higher over the bigger obstacles - so if he is finding his groove over hurdles, he is potentially very well handicapped.
Hometown Boy is another who is stepped up in trip - following a win over 2m4f at Kempton in February.
That was his first run of the season - but he returned in top form and was a comfortable winner.
A 7lb rating rise doesn’t look overly harsh - and if he can build on that - and cope with the extra distance, he should also go very well.
I quite fancied Southfield Harvest for the Pertemps final - but Paul Nichols opted not to run him in it.
It’s interesting that he is running in this race, bearing in mind how many of his better horses, he has held back for this meeting.
Southfield Harvest ran third to Polish on his most recent start at Newbury - but I’d fancy him to reverse that form, on 4lb better terms and with first time cheek pieces applied.

2:25

My Drogo looks to have an outstanding chance in this, for the Skeltons.
He was impressive last time at Kelso, when completing his hatrick in a grade 2 event.
He will be stepping up in trip by a couple of furlongs tomorrow - but I can’t see that troubling him.
His is already the highest rated horse in the race - but retains more scope for improvement than most of his rivals.
An early quote of 7/4 looks quite short - but it’s not hard to justify…
Ballyadam appears to be his main rival.
He too is stepping up in trip after finishing second in the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
He was no match for Appreciate It that day - but there is no Appreciate It running tomorrow !
On official ratings, there is only 2lb between him and My Drogo - which suggests it could be quite close between the pair.
In truth, opposition to the market leaders looks quite limited…
Dreal Deal is next in the betting, having won his last 4 over hurdles (plus 2 more on the flat).
The first of those races was a handicap off a mark of 84: he is now rated 145 !
It’s no wonder he was backed as if defeat was out of the question that day (as it clearly was !).
His winning run looked like coming to an end last time at Punchestown - but he finished really strongly to overhaul tiring rivals.
That suggested a step up in trip would suit well - but whether he will have sufficient class to take a grade 1, remains to be seen.
It’s hard to make make of a case for many of the others.
It’s quite interesting that Nicky Henderson is prepared to throw Pipesmoker into a grade 1 contest, after 3 placed runs in novice events.
Presumably the thinking is that if he’s going to win a race this late in the season, it may as well be a big one (if he doesn’t, he will remain a novice next season).
Whilst Llandinabo Lad would be very interesting - if he bounced back to form.
He was sent off a short priced favourite to beat My Drogo at Ascot in December - and whilst he failed by a couple of lengths, at the revised terms he should have every chance of reversing the form.
However, he ran a shocker last time at Haydock, when finishing tailed off last in a grade 2 event.
That run would need to be ignored - but he has been given a 2 month break since then and if that has done the trick, then he could easily outrun his odds.

3:00

Barring accidents, Shishkin will win this.

He’s already shown himself to be an exceptional novice - and it’s little surprise that he’s frightened away most of tomorrows potential opposition.
He’s unbeaten in 4 chase starts this season - including the Arkle, which he took with ease on his most recent start.
It is true that he’s only beaten a total of 13 rivals over fences - but he can only beat what’s put up in front if him and it’s not his fault that nothing is prepared to take him on !
On the 4 that are having a go tomorrow, I could see Gumball doing best…
He’s a horse I like - despite him falling when I suggested him back in November - and he was looking likely to win !
He was destroyed by Shishkin on his next start at Kempton - and on the back of that, had a confidence booster over hurdles last time.
I very much doubt he’ll be able to put Shishkin under much pressure - but the sharp, flat Aintree track should suit him - as should the decent ground.
I would expect him to run his race and that may enable him to finish second.
One issue he could face, is that in Funambule Sivola, he will be up against another horse who likes to front run.
I suspect Gumball will win the duel - but if he has to go too fast in order to do so, that will count against him.
Elvis Mall is the other one worthy of consideration for the runner up spot.
He’s a fair horse, and if Gumball and Funambule Sivola do mess things up for each other, he could take advantage and follow Shishkin home…

3:35

All being well, the Aintree stayers hurdle is going to provide the re-match which was supposed to take place at Cheltenham - but didn’t !

Back in December, Paisley Park edged out Thyme Hill in a thrilling finish to the Long Walk hurdle at Ascot.
The re-match was much anticipated - and supposed to take place at Cheltenham - but Thyme Hill was ruled out of the race, the weekend before.
Paisley Park still made the gig - but he proved no match for Flooring Porter - and could only finish third.
In a way, that takes a bit of the gloss off this race - as the whoever wins, won’t be able to claim to be the staying champion.
However, it still should be a race to savour…
It’s added to, by the fact that Rokasana will be joining in.
She finished a close third at Ascot - but ran in the mares race at Cheltenham.
That was never likely to play to her strengths, as the race Is over 2m4 and she has she has shown improved form this season over staying trips.
Back up to 3 miles, she only has a couple of lengths to make up on the principals and certainly can’t be discounted…
The top 3 do stand a little ahead of their rivals, though Lisnagar Oscar is of some interest.
He was a surprise winner of last years stayers hurdle - and was still travelling nicely when falling in this years race.
That’s never ideal - but provided he is none the worse for his tumble, he could run a big race.
Prior to Cheltenham Lisnagar Oscar was narrowly beaten by Third Wind at Haydock.
On 6lb better terms he should be capable of reversing that form…
If the Cap Fits won this race 2 years ago (from Roksana) - but he’s not shown much since and I’ll be very surprised if he can repeat the trick tomorrow.
Of far more interest, is Diol Ker.
He comfortably beat Monkfish over hurdles, at the start of last season - and whilst his chasing career hasn’t gone well this season, he has shown more, reverted back to hurdles on his 2 most recent starts.
The ground is a concern, as all of his best form is on heavy, but if Noel Meade allows him to take his chance, then he would have to be considered…

4:15

The precursor to the Grand National, really doesn’t look a particularly strong race…

As a consequence, it’s little surprise to see Happygolucky installed a short priced favourite.
He was a similar price for a stronger handicap at Cheltenham last time - and whilst he didn’t quite manage to win that race, he did go very close.
Ultimately, he finished second to the very well handicapped Vintage Clouds - and off a mark just 2lb higher, Happygolucky will be hard to beat tomorrow - provided he is able to run to the same level.
Cloudy Glen also finished second at Cheltenham - behind Mount Ida in the Kim Muir.
That race wasn’t as strong as the one in which Happygolucky ran - and as he’s also been raised 2lb for his efforts, I wouldn’t be quite as keen on his chance.
Top Notch was yet another, who placed at Cheltenham - this time behind the Shunter, in the Plate.
That was a real return to form for Top Notch - who has been a very good horse, but  appeared to be in decline.
It’s interesting that he is stepped up in trip to 3 miles tomorrow - which is the first time over fences. I’m honestly not sure how that will work out - though it does smack a little of clutching at straws…
The booking of 7lb claimer Luca Morgan is also interesting - that has a more positive feel to it !
Fagan bounced right back to form last time, when a facile winner at Newbury.
However a 10lb rise for an 11 year old seems harsh - whilst he will also face much stiffer opposition.
Sam Brown would have a chance, if he’s allowed to run. But as he’s been taken out of a number of races on account of the ground being too quick and I suspect he will end up not taking part.
Spiritofthegames had paid the price for his consistency - but a few recent below par efforts have seen his mark drop a little.
He’s now handicapped to go close - whilst the step up to 3 miles may yet work in his favour.
He certainly can’t be dismissed…
Ramses de Teillee has dropped to a mark that he can be competitive off - and the fitting of first time cheek pieces is an interesting move.
3 miles on relatively quick ground doesn’t strike me as the ideal test for him - but if the cheekpieces do light him up, it might be just fine !
That said, the fact Tom Scudamore appears to have opted to ride Hold the Note, is hardly a vote of confidence in his chances…
Ofalltheginjoints is the final one of interest.
He looked a really good horse when wining at Exeter in November but has performed poorly in his 2 subsequent starts.
He’s another one from the Colin Tizzard stable - and we may have to wait until next season, before we see him back at his best.

5:15

The 2021 Grand National - and I can’t decide whether it’s a very simple race to solve - or the minefield you normally expect !

The reason I think it could be simple to solve, is because there are some outstanding contenders - and I’ll be surprised if any of the lesser ones are able to beat them.
Ofcourse, that’s ignoring ‘luck’ - and even nowadays when the fences are relatively easy to jump, luck in running, still plays a big part.

The obvious place to start, is with Cloth Cap.
He hacked up in the Hennesy, back in November - before winning a conditions race at Kelso last month, with similar ease.
He had no right to do that based on official ratings - but there was no fluke about it, and as a result his mark was raised to 162.
He will run tomorrow off a mark of 148 - which means he is a stone ‘well in’.
If that’s right, then he will be very hard to beat…
The main issue, is whether his last run can be taken at face value.
He only beat 4 rivals - and at least a couple of them ran below form.
In fairness, even on his Hennesy form, he is probably the one to beat - though I’m not sure I’d be prepared to take 4/1 about him winning…
The next 3 in the betting are all Irish trained - and each of them looks to have a good chance.
Burrows Saint won the Irish National 2 years ago, as a 6 year old - and whilst he is lightly raced since then, I suspect this has always been the aim.
He was well beaten by Acapello Bourgeois in his prep for this race at Fairyhouse in February - and will be 6lb worse off at the weights tomorrow. Despite that, I expect the form to be reversed….
Minella Times and Any Second Now are both owned by JP McManus - and similar cases can be made for each.
Any Second Now has clearly been targeted at the race - and I expect him to go very close.
He was an easy winner at the Cheltenham festival 2 years ago - and off a mark only 9lb lower.
Minella Times has been campaigned more openly - but is a year younger and so should have a little more scope for improvement.
He’s finished runner up on his 2 most recent starts in a couple of big handicaps.
It’s asking a lot of him to go one better in this race - but he couldn’t have better connections.
Kimberlite Candy is the third fancied runner for JP McManus - and he too has been targeted at the race.
He’s twice finished runner up in the Becher Chase - jumping like a buck on both occasions.
He might prefer slightly softer ground - but other than that, he has an excellent profile.
Away from the head of the market, there are plenty who can be given half chances.
Top Weight, Bristol de Mai is the class horse in the race.
He beat a peak form Clan des Obeaux at Haydock in November - and that one hacked up in a grade 1 yesterday !
Even with top weight, if he takes to the course, he could be tough to beat.
Farclas could become the second horse to win the Triumph hurdle on route to taking the Grand National !
That was the case with Tiger Roll - and there would be some bizarre irony if Farclas was the one to fill his shoes.
Acapello Bourgeois clearly has a chance, based on his form with Burrows Saint; whilst Mister Malarky would be quite interesting - if it weren’t for the form of the Tizzard yard.
Whilst at a very big price (insultingly big !), I could see Double Shuffle running well.
He may struggle to last out the trip, but as a former King George runner up, he has to be of interest off a mark of just 145…

6:00

I’ve got to be honest, I don’t have a strong view on the finale…

I was going to suggest The Gossiper, as the only Irish trained horse in the field - particularly as that trainer is Emmet Mullins (of The Shunter fame).
However, the horse has already been hammered in the betting…
I would guess that’s because people are looking at things the same way as me.
I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him drift out to double figures (on the exchanges) - before late the money comes.
Though all that is speculation !
What’s not speculation, is that he was impressive on his sole run in a bumper at Wexford, last month.
Based on that run alone, he has a chance - but so to do plenty of others…
Balco Coastal was hugely impressive on his debut at Kempton in February - and it’s understandable that he’s been installed the early favourite.
The fact he’s trained by Nicky Henderson, will certainly be part of the reason the bookmakers are running scared.
The Paul Nichols trained Knappers Hill is third fav, on the back of a couple of wins.
The first was a formality - but he did well when taking a traditionally strong listed bumper at Ascot, just before Christmas…
Super Six finished a creditable fifth in the champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival.
That makes him the form pick - whilst the fact he will receive the 4 year old allowance, should also help his case.
Plenty of others can be given half chances, with the unbeaten pair, Charlies Glance and World of Dreams, amongst the more interesting.

All this said however, it’s a race I’m like to just watch…