Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Aintree
1:45
Master Deboaniar 1 unit win 20/1
2:20
Do your Job 5 units win 22/1
Houx Gris 2 units win 10/1
2:50
The Big Breakaway 2 units win 13/2
Espoire de Romay 2 units win 7/1
4:05
Caribean Boy 5 units win 8/1
Glen Forsa 1 unit win 50/1
Best bets
Aintree
2:20
Do your Job 0.5pt win 22/1
4:05
Caribean Boy 0.5pt win 8/1
suspect I may have issued todays bet a little too early…
My timings are being dictated by the amount of different things I need to do (I’ll be straight on to the preview for tomorrow, once I’ve issue this !).
I didn’t think it would be an issue with the Aintree markets - and maybe it’s not for most of them - but the price of Do Your Job, was far more fragile than I would have liked, when I issued this morning.
In fairness, I don’t know what’s happening in the rest of the world (someone else may have been trying to back him), and he was a big price - but regardless, I would have hoped the price would have stood up better than it did (as was the case with Caribean Bay).
All this said, 20/1 was fine - and I would probably have gone down to 16/1, if necessary.
All he has to do now, is win :)
Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…
Aintree
I went round in the circles looking at the opener (1:45) - and eventually, all but gave up !
I just can’t see an angle that I’m happy with - and even finding a short list, proved impossible.
My original plan was to suggest Whatsupwithyou - but I’ve cooled on him.
I can see arguments for all of the market leaders, but I don’t find any of them compelling.
All this said, I think Master Debonair is worth a small speculative play for the Matrix.
It’s an act of faith in Harry Fry getting him back to his best (or at least, close to), but if he’s managed to do that, the horse is handicapped to go very close.
Dusart may be the next coming in the 2:20 - but he’s still got a lot to prove.
He sustained a bad injury after his debut win - and whilst it can be argued that connections wouldn’t be rushing him back if he weren’t 100%, it can also be argued that he is unlikely to be given an overly hard race (he’s very much one for the future)…
Aside from him, it’s an open race (far more open than the betting implies).
I suggested Do your Job last time, when he was a big price at Kelso - and he nearly repaid my faith (he traded at just over 2 IR).
I thought he ran really well that day - just getting out stayed by My Drogo.
The winner is a very good horse (he’s favourite for the novice event tomorrow) - and Do You Job matched him until the second last.
Dropped back 2 furlongs today, I think Do Your Job can again run a really big race - and may even be able to win !
Hous Gris is hard to assess, as he’s an unexposed 4 year old, taking on older horses.
He travelled through the Boodles race at Cheltenham, like a class horse - and if he can build on that, he could easily put it up to his older rivals.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.
I want to take on Chantry House in the 2:50 - I’m just struggling to find one with which to do so !
I’ve no real issue with the horse, I just feel that 6/4 is far too short - with him stepping up in trip, and a doubt over the value of his Cheltenham win.
If the Colin Tizzard stable was in any kind of form, The Big Breakaway would be the one.
I thought he ran really well at Cheltenham, sacrificing his chance of finishing second by putting it up to Monkfish.
I think he’s the best horse in the race (I’ve actually backed him at 100/1 for next years Gold cup !) - it’s just whether he’ll be in peak form today…
I also like Espoir de Romay.
He did well to give Royal Pagaille a race, and if that one was running in this race (and in top form !), he’d be favourite.
The issue with Espoir is the ground - I think he’d like it softer.
All this said, I think it is worth dutching the pair of them at small stakes, in the hope that one of them manages to overcome its little ‘issue’ !
I spent a lot of time looking at the 3:25 - but I couldn’t reach a conclusion that I felt happy with…
I suspect that means Politologie will win - because races I can’t settle on, are usually won by the favourite !
He is certainly the solid option - I just feel he should be beatable !
I prefer him to Fakir Doudairies - mainly because the latter had a really hard race at Cheltenham. If he’s got over that, then he should go close.
I can see significant issues (or potential issues) with all of the other runners - so ultimately, I decided it was a race best left alone…
There may be 28 runners in the Topham (4:05) - but I’m pretty keen on Caribean Boy.
He ran a huge race at Cheltenham last time - considering that everything that could go wrong, did go wrong !
He looks a real class animal to me (I suspect, borderline graded) - and if that’s the case, he should be able to cope with a mark of 152.
Obviously you need some luck in running in this kind of race - but granted that, he should go very close.
Glen Forsa is the other one I want on side, at a big price.
He’ll need to bounce back to form - but he was a very classy horse.
If the wind op has worked (his last run was inconclusive), then he too should go very close.
I just can’t make my mind up about Bravemansgame in the 4:40.
I started thinking he was different class to his rivals - but now I’m not so sure !
I’m also not sold on second favourite, Cape Gentleman, over todays 3 mile trip.
I hoped that I would be able to find an outsider to latch on to - but I can’t…
Ultimately, I’m not going to be surprised, whatever wins this race.
I guess that means I could take a shot at one at a really big price - but it would be complete guesswork, so I’ll resist !
I was hoping to deploy the Matrix on the 5:15 - but for the second day in a row, it’s not been possible…
Once again, the issue is with the early bookmaker odds, which are around 50% lower than the win only prices on the exchanges.
My short list for the race is: Copperless, Camprond, The Grey Falco, Bold Enough and Dear Sire.
In fairness, it doesn’t help that the first 2 are heading the market, as that would always make it difficult to create a position.
That said, I would only look to save on them - and look to make a profit on the other 3.
As I type the prices of the other 3 are:
The Grey Falco 8/1 (10)
Bold Enough 9/1 (16)
Dear Sire 25/1 (40)
The price in brackets is the back price currently on BF.
If I suggested taking bookmaker prices, it would be very hard to make a profit on the Matrix bets.
As I said yesterday, I will need to redefine how I handle these bets, for next season…
My timings are being dictated by the amount of different things I need to do (I’ll be straight on to the preview for tomorrow, once I’ve issue this !).
I didn’t think it would be an issue with the Aintree markets - and maybe it’s not for most of them - but the price of Do Your Job, was far more fragile than I would have liked, when I issued this morning.
In fairness, I don’t know what’s happening in the rest of the world (someone else may have been trying to back him), and he was a big price - but regardless, I would have hoped the price would have stood up better than it did (as was the case with Caribean Bay).
All this said, 20/1 was fine - and I would probably have gone down to 16/1, if necessary.
All he has to do now, is win :)
Here’s the thinking behind todays bets…
Aintree
I went round in the circles looking at the opener (1:45) - and eventually, all but gave up !
I just can’t see an angle that I’m happy with - and even finding a short list, proved impossible.
My original plan was to suggest Whatsupwithyou - but I’ve cooled on him.
I can see arguments for all of the market leaders, but I don’t find any of them compelling.
All this said, I think Master Debonair is worth a small speculative play for the Matrix.
It’s an act of faith in Harry Fry getting him back to his best (or at least, close to), but if he’s managed to do that, the horse is handicapped to go very close.
Dusart may be the next coming in the 2:20 - but he’s still got a lot to prove.
He sustained a bad injury after his debut win - and whilst it can be argued that connections wouldn’t be rushing him back if he weren’t 100%, it can also be argued that he is unlikely to be given an overly hard race (he’s very much one for the future)…
Aside from him, it’s an open race (far more open than the betting implies).
I suggested Do your Job last time, when he was a big price at Kelso - and he nearly repaid my faith (he traded at just over 2 IR).
I thought he ran really well that day - just getting out stayed by My Drogo.
The winner is a very good horse (he’s favourite for the novice event tomorrow) - and Do You Job matched him until the second last.
Dropped back 2 furlongs today, I think Do Your Job can again run a really big race - and may even be able to win !
Hous Gris is hard to assess, as he’s an unexposed 4 year old, taking on older horses.
He travelled through the Boodles race at Cheltenham, like a class horse - and if he can build on that, he could easily put it up to his older rivals.
He’s worth a saver for the Matrix.
I want to take on Chantry House in the 2:50 - I’m just struggling to find one with which to do so !
I’ve no real issue with the horse, I just feel that 6/4 is far too short - with him stepping up in trip, and a doubt over the value of his Cheltenham win.
If the Colin Tizzard stable was in any kind of form, The Big Breakaway would be the one.
I thought he ran really well at Cheltenham, sacrificing his chance of finishing second by putting it up to Monkfish.
I think he’s the best horse in the race (I’ve actually backed him at 100/1 for next years Gold cup !) - it’s just whether he’ll be in peak form today…
I also like Espoir de Romay.
He did well to give Royal Pagaille a race, and if that one was running in this race (and in top form !), he’d be favourite.
The issue with Espoir is the ground - I think he’d like it softer.
All this said, I think it is worth dutching the pair of them at small stakes, in the hope that one of them manages to overcome its little ‘issue’ !
I spent a lot of time looking at the 3:25 - but I couldn’t reach a conclusion that I felt happy with…
I suspect that means Politologie will win - because races I can’t settle on, are usually won by the favourite !
He is certainly the solid option - I just feel he should be beatable !
I prefer him to Fakir Doudairies - mainly because the latter had a really hard race at Cheltenham. If he’s got over that, then he should go close.
I can see significant issues (or potential issues) with all of the other runners - so ultimately, I decided it was a race best left alone…
There may be 28 runners in the Topham (4:05) - but I’m pretty keen on Caribean Boy.
He ran a huge race at Cheltenham last time - considering that everything that could go wrong, did go wrong !
He looks a real class animal to me (I suspect, borderline graded) - and if that’s the case, he should be able to cope with a mark of 152.
Obviously you need some luck in running in this kind of race - but granted that, he should go very close.
Glen Forsa is the other one I want on side, at a big price.
He’ll need to bounce back to form - but he was a very classy horse.
If the wind op has worked (his last run was inconclusive), then he too should go very close.
I just can’t make my mind up about Bravemansgame in the 4:40.
I started thinking he was different class to his rivals - but now I’m not so sure !
I’m also not sold on second favourite, Cape Gentleman, over todays 3 mile trip.
I hoped that I would be able to find an outsider to latch on to - but I can’t…
Ultimately, I’m not going to be surprised, whatever wins this race.
I guess that means I could take a shot at one at a really big price - but it would be complete guesswork, so I’ll resist !
I was hoping to deploy the Matrix on the 5:15 - but for the second day in a row, it’s not been possible…
Once again, the issue is with the early bookmaker odds, which are around 50% lower than the win only prices on the exchanges.
My short list for the race is: Copperless, Camprond, The Grey Falco, Bold Enough and Dear Sire.
In fairness, it doesn’t help that the first 2 are heading the market, as that would always make it difficult to create a position.
That said, I would only look to save on them - and look to make a profit on the other 3.
As I type the prices of the other 3 are:
The Grey Falco 8/1 (10)
Bold Enough 9/1 (16)
Dear Sire 25/1 (40)
The price in brackets is the back price currently on BF.
If I suggested taking bookmaker prices, it would be very hard to make a profit on the Matrix bets.
As I said yesterday, I will need to redefine how I handle these bets, for next season…
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