The racing at Aintree tomorrow, doesn’t quite have the quality of today.
There are 4 grade 1 events - but also 3 big field handicaps.
The issue with the big field handicaps at the festivals, is that there isn’t sufficient time for me to go through the fields as thoroughly as I’d like.
There are 28 runners in the Topham and it would take me quite a few hours to do them all justice !
Still, it is what it is.
Needless to say, I’ve found various ways to short cut things over the years - and the conditions races are much easier for me to quickly assess…
Here are my thoughts on day 2.
Aintree
1:45
As is invariably the case nowadays, its the unexposed novices who head the market in the first handicap of the day…
Wilde About Oscar also heads the weights - but it’s quite possible that he’s a graded horse in a handicap - and if that’s the case, he could well be capable of defying a mark of 150.
He’s only been beaten once in 5 runs over hurdles - and that was when making a mistake and being pulled up in the grade 1 Challow hurdle.
He did well to beat Mint Condition at Uttoxeter last time - and a 4lb rise for that win doesn’t look overly harsh.
He has the form to go close - and the potential for significant improvement.
Solwara One is virtually impossible to assess, after just 3 runs in novice events.
He has won 2 of the 3 races - and was narrowly beaten in the other.
An opening mark of 134 looks reasonable - and he clearly has plenty of potential.
Amarillo Sky is a little more experienced - as tomorrow will be his fifth run over hurdles.
More than that, the last 2 have been in handicaps - and he was hugely impressive on his most recent start, when winning at Exeter.
Unsurprisingly, the handicapper didn’t miss that - and he will be running off a 13lb higher mark tomorrow - and in much better company.
However, it’s not impossible that he will be up to the challenge…
Tronador is quite interesting, for Denise Foster.
He wasn’t beaten far in the Boodles at last years Cheltenham festival - and gets to run from a mark 1lb lower tomorrow.
He’s only run twice since then, with his outing at Downpatrick last month, very much looking like a prep run for tomorrow.
Miser Coffey ran well on his most recent start, when seventh in the Betfair hurdle.
That’s top class handicap form and he gets to get to run from a pound lower mark tomorrow.
I’m not entirely convinced about him over a half mile longer trip - for all it’s an interesting move !
Whatsupwithyou has definitely got a chance.
He ran well on his most recent start, when fourth in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham festival.
He’d also run well at he same course in November, when runner up to Stimulating Song.
Kevin Brogan takes over in the saddle tomorrow - and I’d view that as a positive.
Mister Debonair is the final one of interest.
Formerly trained by Colin Tizzard, he will be having his first run for Harry Fry.
He was a very useful novice last season and managed to achieve a rating of 151.
However, he’s shown nothing in his 3 most recent runs and is now down to a mark of 142.
That could prove to be very lenient, if Harry Fry can rekindle his flame…
2:20
The first grade 1 of the day - and whilst the quality looks a little questionable, it still appears very competitive.
The once raced Dusart heads the betting.
He comfortably beat Soaring Glory, on his racecourse debut at Newbury in November - and as much as anything, it’s the subsequent exploits of the runner up that make the case for Dusart.
Soaring Glory went on to win the Betfair hurdle - suggesting Dusart put in a high class effort that day.
That may have been the case - but equally, Soaring Glory could simply have improved subsequently.
We’ll only find out tomorrow - but suffice to say, I won’t be rushing to back him at 2/1 !
That said, this race doesn’t look as if it will take too much winning.
Third Time Lucki is second favourite in the early betting - and he was quite well beaten in the County hurdle on his most recent outing, off a mark of 143.
He was just over 3 lengths behind the winner, Belfast Banter, that day - and he gets a 5lb pull in the weights tomorrow, which should make it close between the pair.
Ajero is another one moving from a handicap to a grade 1.
He’s won his 2 most recent starts, at Market Rasen and Huntingdon - and whilst it should be a massive step up for him to grade 1 company, that may not be the case ! For Pleasure has a more conventional profile for a horse running in this race.
He was a creditable third last time, in the Supreme novice hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
He was beaten a long way by Appreciate It - but that doesn’t mean he can’t go close tomorrow.
His attacking running style could certainly get a few of his opponents in trouble.
Both Any News and Do your Job, can be given a chance.
They clashed last time at Kelso, behind My Drogo.
Any News was quite well fancied that day, but fell at the fourth last.
Do your Job ran really well to finish second in the race - though he was no match for the winner.
That said, if My Drogo was running in this race, he would probably be second favourite…
Houx Gris is the final one of interest.
It’s unusual for Paul Nichols to run a 4 year old against older rivals - and whilst he may be doing so because he has Monmiral running today, it’s still worthy of note.
Houx Gris ran well at Cheltenham on only his second start for Nichols, when fourth in the Boodles.
The winner of that race has since come out and won a graded contest - thereby franking the form.
Houx Gris clearly has scope for plenty of improvement and certainly has a chance of upsetting his older rivals.
2:50
As with the previous race, this doesn’t look the strongest of grade 1 events - and once again, Nicky Henderson saddles the short priced favourite…
Chantry House was a good winner of the Marsh Chase at the Cheltenham festival - and steps up in trip by half a mile tomorrow.
I’ve no idea whether he will improve for the extra distance - but as he won a PTP over 3 miles in his younger days, he should cope fine.
He certainly kept on strongly in the closing stages at Cheltenham - and I think the question is more whether that form is as strong as it appears…
For a start hot favourite Envoi Allen, was an early faller: whilst Shan Blue was given an overly aggressive ride, which spoilt his chance of winning.
Ultimately, Chantry House only finished 5 lengths in front of Asterion Forlong and that one hardly advertised the form when beaten at Fairyhouse on Sunday…
I actually think Shan Blue has a chance of reversing the form - though clearly he’ll need to be ridden with most restraint.
There is also the chance that the run may have bottomed him, as it wasn’t the first tough race he’s had this season.
In terms of pure ability however, I doubt there is much between the pair…
Espoir de Romay is difficult to assess.
He’s won 2 of his 3 chase starts this season - with his only defeat coming when failing to concede 5lb to Royal Pagaille.
There was no shame in that - and on official ratings, he only has 4lb to find with Chantry House.
Fiddlerontheroof and The Big Breakaway filled the places behind Monkfish in the Brown Advisory novice chase at Cheltenham.
The Big Breakaway was a much shorter price that day - but ultimately paid the price for going toe to toe with Monkfish and finished well beaten.
It struck me that he was the second best horse in the race - and given a more conservative ride tomorrow, he may be able to prove that and reverse form with his stablemate.
Sporting John fell when beaten in that race, but had previously got the better of Shan Blue in a grade 1 at Sandown.
However, he was flattered by the way the race panned out that day and I’ll be a little surprised if he can get involved tomorrow.
Both Silver Hallmark or Empire Steel can boast pieces of form that suggest they can be given a chance - and neither can be totally dismissed…
3:25
The final grade 1 of the day - and again, whilst it’s attracted a fair line up, there aren’t any super stars on show !
Politologue heads the betting - and he’s a solid grade 1 performer.
He won last seasons Champion chase and followed that up by winning the Tingle Creek chase at Sandown, on his seasonal debut.
On his most recent start, he finished runner up to First Flow, in the Clarence house chase at Ascot.
All 3 of those were grade 1 races over 2 miles - but he’s equally effective over half a mile further and finished runner up to Min in this race, 2 years ago.
Fakir D’oudairies is disputing early favouritism with Politologue.
He was a highly creditable runner up in the Ryanair, on his most recent start.
He was never going to beat Allaho that day - but it was still a very good performance.
He’s actually finished runner up on 5 of his last 6 starts - which is a slightly concerning statistic !
That said, there doesn’t appear anything wrong with his attitude - he just keeps on bumping into one !
Notebook was one of those that he bumped into - as Naas in November.
Fakir was beaten 12 lengths that day, suggesting Notebook should have a very good chance tomorrow.
However, he seems to have gone backwards since then - and tomorrows step up in trip, smacks a little of clutching at straws.
It may pay off - but then again…
Dashel Drasher and Master Tommytucker can both be given a chance.
They clashed at Ascot in February, with the former coming out on top by 2 lengths.
There is no obvious reason why the form should be reversed - the question is whether it is good enough to win this race…
It’s crazy to see Nuts Well contesting a grade 1, considering he is a 10 year old and was winning a handicap off a mark of 130 just 6 starts ago !
He seems to have undergone a ridiculous level of improvement over the past 12 months - and despite there seeming to be no fluke about it, it’s still hard to see him taking it to the next level.
Neither Itchy Feet or Duc de Genievres should be good enough to win - suggesting that the overall quality of this race is a fair bit below the usual level…
4:05
28 runners will go to post for the Topham - suffice to say, even deciding on a short list, is no formality !
Livelovelaugh is the obvious place to start.
He’s run really well on his 2 most recent starts, both at Leopardstown.
On the first occasion, he finished third at the Dublin Racing festival, having looked sure to win approaching the last; whilst last time out, he went one place better, when narrowly denied in a decent handicap, early last month.
The downside of such creditable efforts, is a rating rise - and that’s before the UK assessor adds on his bit !
His mark has risen a total of 10lb - but the fact he is in top form, means he can’t be easily dismissed.
Visioman is another Irish raider, who looks to have a very good chance.
Unlike Livelovelaugh, he’s got no recent form - but was a much improved performer last summer and appears to have been targeted at this race.
He’s a sound jumper and will relish decent ground.
The only issue is, he’s been well picked up in the market and his price now looks plenty short enough…
Caribean Boy caught my eye last time, when finishing strongly in the Plate at the Cheltenham festival.
That was a return to form, following a couple of poor runs - yet the handicapper has kindly dropped him a pound.
He’s relatively unexposed, so it’s not easy to be adamant that he is well handicapped.
However, his last run showed that he can at least be competitive off his current mark.
Precious Cargo is a stablemate of Caribean Boy and he too showed promise last time out, at Warwick.
He made a big mid race move in that race, before weakening close home.
That was his first run following wind surgery, so he may well improve for it (it’s often on their second run after a wind op, that horses show significant improvement).
Needless to say, plenty of others can be given a chance - but a couple at big prices, catch my eye…
Kauto Riko has only run once this season - when staying on strongly to claim fourth in the Paddy Power gold cup in November.
That’s top class handicap form - and off the same mark tomorrow, he must have a chance of again placing.
Glen Forsa is the other one of interest.
He’s not shown much in 4 runs this season - but as a consequence, his handicap mark has dropped 11lb.
He ran better last time, than the final result suggests, when unplaced in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham.
That race is over 2 miles - and he will certainly be more suited to tomorrows longer trip.
If he can recapture the form of his third to Oldgrangewood at the beginning of last season, he would definitely have a chance.
4:40
Bravemansgame looks as if he could be different class in this …
Highly regarded by Paul Nichols, he finished third last time in the Ballymore at the Cheltenham festival.
He ran into a couple of real top notchers that day, in the shape of Bob Olinger and Gaillard du Mesnil and there doesn’t appear to be anything of their quality in tomorrows line-up.
The slight concern is that he had quite a hard race at Cheltenham, and that may have left its mark - but if it hasn’t he is very much the one to beat.
Cape Gentleman looks like his biggest potential danger.
I quite fancied him at the Dublin Racing festival - but he ran poorly behind Gaillard du Mesnil.
However, he bounced back to form last time, when winning the Dovecot hurdle at Kempton.
He wasn’t overly impressive that day - but the race was over 2 miles and I suspect he will be much better suited to tomorrows much longer trip.
Decent ground should also be a big positive for him…
Oscar Elite and Streets of Doyen filled the places in the Albert Bartlett behind impressive winner, Vanillier.
Neither of them ever looked like beating the winner that day - but both ran well.
I would slightly prefer the chances of Streets of Doyen tomorrow, as better ground should suit him (assuming that’s what he gets !).
Half chances can be given to most of the others, without anything in particular jumping out.
5:15
The final race on the card is for conditionals and amateur riders - and it looks nearly impossible to solve.
I suspect it is a contest where it will pay to be guided by the market…
As always, the unexposed potential improvers, are at the head of the betting - and also provide the most likely source of the race winner…
Camprond is a good place to start !
He will be making his handicap debut after 3 runs in novice events.
He was placed in the first 2 - before winning the latest one, at Taunton.
It’s impossible to know what the form is worth - but probably irrelevant anyway, as
he’ll doubtless step up markedly tomorrow !
He’s owned by JP McManus - and he’s also responsible for another one of the market leaders, Tomorrow Mystery.
He’s a little more exposed that some of the runners, with 8 runs over hurdles.
He’s also run in a few handicaps - hacking up in the penultimate one, before running flat under a penalty, a few days later.
He’ll need to defy a 13lb higher mark tomorrow - but a win in an AW bumper in February, suggests he may still be improving.
Copperless heads the betting on the back of a win in a Taunton handicap last month.
That was his first run since October, so there must be a chance he will improve for it.
It was also only his third run over hurdles, so he still retains plenty of scope.
Bold Enough is very interesting for Henry de Bromhead.
Again, he is relatively inexperienced, with just 6 runs over hurdles - and he ran really well last month at Downpatrick, when finishing second to Pure Genius.
That was his first run since October - and strongly suggested he was being readied for a spring campaign.
He’s the only Irish trained runner in the field - but that won’t stop him from winning !
The Grey Falco is interesting on his handicap debut for Alistair Ralph.
He was a 4 length runner up to Calico at Ludlow on his most recent outing, when conceding 6lb.
However, the winner is rated 140, which means The Grey Falco is potentially very well treated off a mark of 124 (if that form line can be taken literally).
As you would expect, plenty of the outsiders can be given half chances on the best of their form.
The most interesting looks to be Dear Sire.
He will relish the decent ground, having got a bit stuck in the over winter.
He’s now back down to the mark he won from at Chepstow in October - whilst the booking of Derek O Connor, catches the eye…
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