Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Aintree
2:50
Mister Fisher 5 units win 7/1
3:25
Song for Someone 5 units win 10/1
Buveur D'air 2 units win 10/1
Silver Streak 1pt win 14/1
4:05
Cat Tiger 4 units win 7/1
Latenightpass 3 units win 8/1
Some Man 3 units win 8/1
Best bets
2:50
Mister Fisher 0.5pt win 7/1
3:25
Song for Someone 0.5pt win 10/1
Todays Aintree card really is top class - and I’m very much
looking forward to watching the races.
From a betting perspective however, it’s quite hard - with plenty of variables needing to be taken into consideration.
That’s always the case post-Cheltenham, with the ground changing - and the possibility that certain horses will have had enough for the season.
The ground is a big unknown today - as apparently there has been extensive watering.
Unfortunately it'll be too late, by the time we know the impact that’s had...
I’ve only been able to find a couple of Best bets for the opening day: one would prefer quick ground; whilst the other would prefer it soft.
As a consequence, a double is unlikely - though I’ll be quite happy if just one of them comes home in front !
Here’s the rationale…
Aintree
I can’t see an angle into the opener (1:45) - particularly with the uncertainty over the ground.
Fusil Raffles needs it quick: Hitman would prefer soft.
More than that, they may both be upstaged by The Shunter or Eldorado Allen.
It’s fascinating to read that JP McManus has bought The Shunter - though I can’t help feel that he’s about 6 months late with the purchase !
I did briefly consider a small play on the Matrix for Phoenix Way, as I think he could be over-priced at 25/1.
However, he too is owned by JP - and the purchase of The Shunter is hardly a vote of confidence in Phoenix Way !
As a consequence, it’s just a watching race…
The 2:20 is also a watching race - but that was always going to be the case…
It does appear to lie between Adagio and Monmiral - and it’s not easy to choose between the pair.
A lot will depend on how Adagio has come out of Cheltenham.
If he’s maintained his form, he is the one to beat - but if it’s taken an edge off him, Monimral should be capable of taking advantage.
I couldn’t completely rule out Fiveandtwenty or John Locke - but equally, I could only create a speculative case for either…
I like Mister Fisher in the 2:50.
We were with him at Cheltenham in the Ryanair - and he ran well, until making a bad mistake.
Allaho was brilliant that day - so avoiding a duel with him was probably not a bad thing.
On his previous run at Cheltenham, I was really impressed with the way Mister Fisher battled to beat Kalashnikov.
That was over 2m4f - but Cheltenham has a much stiffer finish than Aintree and Mister Fisher wasn’t stopping.
He is certainly worth a try at 3 miles - and this is both the right course and the right conditions.
It’s easy to pull holes in all of his rivals.
Clan des Obeaux looks the most dangerous - but after 2 disappointing runs, he can be opposed at the prices.
The 3:25 is a very tight race, but I think it is worth taking a chance on Song for Someone.
As with Mister Fisher, he is the youngest horse in the race and so open to most improvement.
Not that he will need to improve much if he is to win.
His form is already a match for most of his rivals - whilst the 2m4f trip will be perfect for him.
He bypassed Cheltenham to run in this - and I think that was a good move.
Buveur Dair also bypassed Cheltenham to run in this - and whilst he is now a bit long in the tooth, he would have hacked up in this race at his prime.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix - in case sufficient of the old ability remains.
Silver Streak is also worth covering. He is officially the best horse in the race, and whilst there is a question mark concerning the trip, decent ground will help.
He just looks over-priced at 14/1 (I’d have him single figures).
I’m happy to oppose Billaway and Sametegal in the 4:05 - and instead dutch the next 3 in the betting.
I did think long and hard about the best way to play this race (and indeed whether I should play in it at all !) - and ultimately decided that 5/2 about one of the 3 winning, was a fair price.
I like Cat Tiger best - as I think he has the potential to outclass his rivals.
That said, he does lack a bit of experience - and isn’t blessed with the most talented jockey on top !
Latenightpass ran really well at Cheltenham and his running style should be well suited to Aintree. I’d be optimistic that he can reverse form with Billaway.
You have to read between the lines for Some Man - but I get the distinct impression he is highly thought of. The trip and ground should suit him perfectly - and I suspect he could put in a really big performance.
I respect the chance of Dashing Perk; whilst I’m sure a couple of the outsiders will run well.
However, I’ll still be disappointed if one of Cat Tiger, Latenightpass or Some Man, doesn’t win…
I was disappointed to be unable to suggest any bets in the 4:40.
I don’t fancy anything in the race sufficiently strongly to make it a Best bet - but I was optimistic that I’d be able to deploy the Matrix.
However - and as has been the case a few times this season - the early bookmakers prices just don’t offer sufficient margin to allow me to do so…
The problem is the enhanced EW terms, which result in the bookmakers offering prices way below where they would be in a win only book (such as the exchanges).
There is a near 25% over-round on the best bookmaker prices - and that is too much for me to be able to absorb.
I’ll be looking to do things slightly differently with the Matrix next season - quoting exchange prices later in the day (when there is more liquidity).
In terms of this race, then I have a short list of 6:
Destrier, Zanza, Dostal Phil, Sully D’oc, Editeur de Gite & Grey Diamond.
I think Destrier is the most likely winner - but he is also the favourite, so I would probably just cover stakes with him.
I’ve backed all of the others at between 12 & 17 on the exchanges.
Collectively, that gives me around a 2/1 shot - which I’m happy with.
However, it’s not a race where I feel confident about eliminating many - which is why I’ve resisted the temptation to make anything an official bet…
I was never going to get involved with the 5:15.
Eileendover is likely to win: If she doesn’t, Elle Est Belle probably will !
The odds aren’t there for an EW bet on one of the outsiders (plus it wouldn’t be that easy to pick one !).
Definitely a watching race…
From a betting perspective however, it’s quite hard - with plenty of variables needing to be taken into consideration.
That’s always the case post-Cheltenham, with the ground changing - and the possibility that certain horses will have had enough for the season.
The ground is a big unknown today - as apparently there has been extensive watering.
Unfortunately it'll be too late, by the time we know the impact that’s had...
I’ve only been able to find a couple of Best bets for the opening day: one would prefer quick ground; whilst the other would prefer it soft.
As a consequence, a double is unlikely - though I’ll be quite happy if just one of them comes home in front !
Here’s the rationale…
Aintree
I can’t see an angle into the opener (1:45) - particularly with the uncertainty over the ground.
Fusil Raffles needs it quick: Hitman would prefer soft.
More than that, they may both be upstaged by The Shunter or Eldorado Allen.
It’s fascinating to read that JP McManus has bought The Shunter - though I can’t help feel that he’s about 6 months late with the purchase !
I did briefly consider a small play on the Matrix for Phoenix Way, as I think he could be over-priced at 25/1.
However, he too is owned by JP - and the purchase of The Shunter is hardly a vote of confidence in Phoenix Way !
As a consequence, it’s just a watching race…
The 2:20 is also a watching race - but that was always going to be the case…
It does appear to lie between Adagio and Monmiral - and it’s not easy to choose between the pair.
A lot will depend on how Adagio has come out of Cheltenham.
If he’s maintained his form, he is the one to beat - but if it’s taken an edge off him, Monimral should be capable of taking advantage.
I couldn’t completely rule out Fiveandtwenty or John Locke - but equally, I could only create a speculative case for either…
I like Mister Fisher in the 2:50.
We were with him at Cheltenham in the Ryanair - and he ran well, until making a bad mistake.
Allaho was brilliant that day - so avoiding a duel with him was probably not a bad thing.
On his previous run at Cheltenham, I was really impressed with the way Mister Fisher battled to beat Kalashnikov.
That was over 2m4f - but Cheltenham has a much stiffer finish than Aintree and Mister Fisher wasn’t stopping.
He is certainly worth a try at 3 miles - and this is both the right course and the right conditions.
It’s easy to pull holes in all of his rivals.
Clan des Obeaux looks the most dangerous - but after 2 disappointing runs, he can be opposed at the prices.
The 3:25 is a very tight race, but I think it is worth taking a chance on Song for Someone.
As with Mister Fisher, he is the youngest horse in the race and so open to most improvement.
Not that he will need to improve much if he is to win.
His form is already a match for most of his rivals - whilst the 2m4f trip will be perfect for him.
He bypassed Cheltenham to run in this - and I think that was a good move.
Buveur Dair also bypassed Cheltenham to run in this - and whilst he is now a bit long in the tooth, he would have hacked up in this race at his prime.
He’s worth covering for the Matrix - in case sufficient of the old ability remains.
Silver Streak is also worth covering. He is officially the best horse in the race, and whilst there is a question mark concerning the trip, decent ground will help.
He just looks over-priced at 14/1 (I’d have him single figures).
I’m happy to oppose Billaway and Sametegal in the 4:05 - and instead dutch the next 3 in the betting.
I did think long and hard about the best way to play this race (and indeed whether I should play in it at all !) - and ultimately decided that 5/2 about one of the 3 winning, was a fair price.
I like Cat Tiger best - as I think he has the potential to outclass his rivals.
That said, he does lack a bit of experience - and isn’t blessed with the most talented jockey on top !
Latenightpass ran really well at Cheltenham and his running style should be well suited to Aintree. I’d be optimistic that he can reverse form with Billaway.
You have to read between the lines for Some Man - but I get the distinct impression he is highly thought of. The trip and ground should suit him perfectly - and I suspect he could put in a really big performance.
I respect the chance of Dashing Perk; whilst I’m sure a couple of the outsiders will run well.
However, I’ll still be disappointed if one of Cat Tiger, Latenightpass or Some Man, doesn’t win…
I was disappointed to be unable to suggest any bets in the 4:40.
I don’t fancy anything in the race sufficiently strongly to make it a Best bet - but I was optimistic that I’d be able to deploy the Matrix.
However - and as has been the case a few times this season - the early bookmakers prices just don’t offer sufficient margin to allow me to do so…
The problem is the enhanced EW terms, which result in the bookmakers offering prices way below where they would be in a win only book (such as the exchanges).
There is a near 25% over-round on the best bookmaker prices - and that is too much for me to be able to absorb.
I’ll be looking to do things slightly differently with the Matrix next season - quoting exchange prices later in the day (when there is more liquidity).
In terms of this race, then I have a short list of 6:
Destrier, Zanza, Dostal Phil, Sully D’oc, Editeur de Gite & Grey Diamond.
I think Destrier is the most likely winner - but he is also the favourite, so I would probably just cover stakes with him.
I’ve backed all of the others at between 12 & 17 on the exchanges.
Collectively, that gives me around a 2/1 shot - which I’m happy with.
However, it’s not a race where I feel confident about eliminating many - which is why I’ve resisted the temptation to make anything an official bet…
I was never going to get involved with the 5:15.
Eileendover is likely to win: If she doesn’t, Elle Est Belle probably will !
The odds aren’t there for an EW bet on one of the outsiders (plus it wouldn’t be that easy to pick one !).
Definitely a watching race…
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