The Aintree Grand National meeting starts tomorrow - and after a few dry weeks, it would be reasonable to expect that the ground will be on the quick side.
However, selective watering has been taking place over the past few days - so that’s not going to be the case.
The clerk of the course has said that the aim is to achieve good to soft ground - and I suspect that’s what it will be - unless it rains !
In terms of the fields for the opening day - then they are excellent.
It looks as if a number of the UK trainers (Paul Nichols being the most high profile) have prioritised Aintree over Cheltenham - presumably because they didn’t think they would be able to beat the Irish trained horses at Cheltenham.
As a consequence, there are some top class horses running - and some very competitive races.
Here are my thoughts on the opening day…
Aintree
1:45
The meeting opens with an absolutely cracking novice chase.
There may only be 7 runners - but they can all be given a chance…
Fusil Raffles has been installed the early favourite on the back of his second place in the Marsh chase at the Cheltenham festival.
As with this race, that one is run over 2m4f - whilst his preference for good going, should also be accommodated (assuming they’ve not gone mad with the watering !).
He’s the highest rated horse in the race (though not by much), so all things being equal, does look the one to beat.
That said, I wouldn’t take 11/4 about anything in this contest…
Eldorado Allen also finished runner up at Cheltenham - in the Arkle over 2 miles, behind Shishkin.
He was never in with a chance of beating the winner that day - but he did run on strongly, suggesting a step up to 2m4f should suit him well.
However, the form of his yard remains a concern…
The Shunter went one place better than both Fusil Raffles and Eldorado Allen, when winning the Plate at Cheltenham.
Whilst it’s true that’s a handicap - as opposed to a grade 1 - it’s an exceptionally competitive one and he won it very easily.
He’s been a revelation in handicaps this season - and whilst this race does represent a significant step up in class for him, he could well be up to it.
Hitman bypassed Cheltenham - presumably being saved for this race by Paul Nichols.
He’s looked very useful in 4 chases this year - winning twice and looking as if he’d go close in the grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase at Sandown.
He’s appeared to relish soft ground, so it remains to be seen how he will cope with a quicker surface.
If he handles it, then he should be right in the mix.
Umbrigado had looked as if he needed a soft surface - until last time, when he put in a personal best to win on good ground at Newbury.
That was in a handicap - but it was a good quality one and he won it well.
Protektorat looked a serious horse, when winning his first 2 outings this season - but the wheels have come off the last twice.
He’s been given 6 weeks off the track - and undergone wind surgery. He will also be sporting a first time tongue tie.
If it all has the desired effect, then he could run a big race - though he clearly comes with risks.
Phoenix Way is the final runner - and whilst given little chance by the betting, I wouldn’t dismiss him quite so easily.
He was good over hurdles last season - and did well to win on his chasing debut at Warwick in November.
He disappointed on his next outing in grade 1 company at Sandown - but I wouldn’t be too surprised to see him bounce back tomorrow.
All in all, quite a puzzle to kick things off !
2:20
Monmiral is another horse who Paul Nichols held back from Cheltenham, in order to run at this meeting.
He’s unbeaten in the 3 starts in the UK - and has been progressively more impressive on each of them.
If he had gone to Cheltenham, he would have been the main UK Challenger for the Triumph hurdle - but it is quite possible that the flatter Aintree track, will suit him better.
He sets a high standard…
Adagio ran in the Triumph hurdle - and ran extremely well to finish second.
He was no match for the winner, Quilixios - but still exceeded expectations and appears to be a horse on the improve.
That said, he has looked well suited by the demands of Cheltenham - and it remains to be seen whether he will be as effective at Aintree.
The other 4 runners all appear to have quite a lot on - and whilst I wouldn’t be surprised to see one or two of them outrun their odds, I will be a little surprised if any of them are capable of winning.
Fiveandtwenty is unbeaten in 3 runs over hurdles at Musselburgh - putting in an improved effort on each occasion.
However, she does appear to have limitations - and even with her 7lb sex allowance, still has 8lb with to find with the market principals on official ratings.
It’s a similar story with Paros.
He has shown useful form to win 2 of his 4 hurdle races - but doesn’t look a world beater and has a lot to find on the ratings.
If there is to be an upset, then John Locke is the one most likely to provide it.
He’s only run once over hurdles - when fourth to Tritonic in the Addonis hurdle at Kempton.
He was ultimately well beaten that day - but he travelled really nicely to the home turn, suggesting he could be capable of much better.
It’s also very interesting that Dan Skelton chose a grade 2 race for his debut - that suggests he is well thought of.
Whether he will have progressed sufficiently to come out on top tomorrow, remains to be seen - but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him run well.
2:50
This is another cracking contest - and once again, Paul Nichols looks to have layed one out for it…
Clan Des Obeaux has been a little disappointing this season - but he remains a top class horse.
He had a hard race, when runner up to Bristol de Mai at Haydock in November - and may have still been feeling that, when only third in the King George at Christmas.
He was a little disappointing when beaten by Secret Investor in the Denman chase at Newbury in February - though in fairness, that race was only ever going to be a stepping stone.
This will have been his main end of season target - and with cheek pieces applied for the first time, he definitely looks the one to beat.
Waiting Patiently looks a big danger.
He finished a place in front of Clan des Obeaux in the King George, before finding 2 miles too short, in the Clarence house chase at Ascot.
Tomorrows trip will suit him better - though 2m4f might suit him best.
It’s hard to see him not running very well - though less hard to see him not being quite good enough.
By contrast to Waiting Patiently, both Native River and Tiger Roll may find the test too sharp.
Native River was out of his comfort zone for the entirety of the Gold Cup - so it’s hard to see him coping with less of a stamina test.
The only possibility, is that he is allowed an uncontested lead and Jonjo O’Neil is able to control the race pace.
In that scenario, he could prove tough to pass - but it’s more likely that he won’t be quick enough.
I’d have a similar reservation about Tiger Roll.
He should really be running in the big one on Saturday - but he would need to be owned by someone else for that to happen !
It’s unlikely that he will be quick enough to live with top class horses on a conventional track.
Mister Fisher is quite interesting, stepped up in trip.
He was in the process of running a big race in the Ryanair - until Allaho broke him !
It was probably just as well that he made a few mistakes and was pulled up - as otherwise, he would have been subject to a very hard race.
His stamina is unproven over 3 miles - but provided the ground is good, I think there is fair chance he will handle it.
He certainly has plenty of class - and as a 7 year old, scope for further improvement.
Clondaw Castle is held by Mister Fisher on their running at Cheltenham in December - but improved last time, when stepped up to 3 miles at Kempton.
He recorded a career best RPR when winning that day and clearly arrives in top form.
It’s hard to make a case for the other 3 - though Aso is never one to write off too quickly…
3:25
The top class action just keeps on flowing - and this is an intriguing a hurdle race, as has been run all season.
There is only 5lb separating the top 7 on official ratings - with Silver Streak sitting 5lb clear of 6 rivals.
To be honest, I’d question that.
Silver Streak is an admirable horse - but he got that rating on the back of his defeat of Epatante at Kempton over Christmas and there must be a chance he was slightly flattered that day.
That said, he definitely has a chance - and is over-priced at around 14/1 - even if there is a slight doubt concerning his stamina over 2m4f.
There is also a doubt over the stamina of both Abracadabras and Jason the Militant - but they are both close to the head of the early market.
That probably owes something to the fact they are Irish trained (!): whilst it is also true they could both improve for stepping up in distance.
On the pair, I would slightly prefer Jason the Militant. He skipped Cheltenham - and is also the more resolute.
Stamina won’t be an issue for either McFabulous or Brewin’upastorm.
They clashed last time in the National Spirit at Fontwell and Brewin’upastorm came out on top.
However, McFabulous probably wasn’t at this best that day - and on 6lb better terms tomorrow, it’s hard to choose between them.
It’s a little odd to see former Champion hurdler, Buveur D’air, priced up at 11/1.
He was off the track for over a year, having suffered a nasty injury at Newcastle, at the start of last season.
He was surprisingly beaten on his comeback run at Haydock in January - but I wouldn’t read too much into that.
He missed the Champion hurdle in order to run in this - and provided he retains a fair chunk of his former ability, he could prove hard to beat.
Song for Someone is an admirable young horse.
He too swerved the Champion hurdle for a tilt at this - and whilst he disappointed on his most recent run at Wincanton, that was in dreadful ground.
Prior to that, he just managed to get the better of Silver Streak in the Bula hurdle at Cheltenham - and whilst he may have been a touch flattered to win that day, he will have no issue with tomorrows longer trip.
None of the remaining 4 can be completely ruled out - though they may just lack the class required to win such a strong race.
4:05
It will be great to see the amateur riders back for this race.
Professional jockeys took over in the Foxhunters at Cheltenham - and the race was poorer as a consequence.
It also provides a nice angle into the race - as the better jockeys tend to make a big difference…
Early favourite Billaway, is ridden by Patrick Mullins - so will not lack for assistance from the saddle.
He was just touched off in the Cheltenham Foxhunters - and it’s right that he heads the betting.
That said, the demands of this race and that one, are very different (this is over 5 furlongs shorter, for a start). So just because he ran really well there, doesn’t necessarily mean he will do the same here…
Paul Nichols trains the next 2 in the betting, in the shape of Cat Tiger and Sametegal.
The former is only 7 and has run in just one hunter chase in England.
However, he has plenty of chasing experience in his native France - and has won twice at grade 3 level, whilst placing at grade 1 level.
It he copes with the Aintree fences - and can replicate his French form, then there is a chance he could outclass his rivals.
Sametegal is a different beast.
He’s 12 - and has plenty of chasing experience under his belt.
He's twice jumped round the National course - and will face more suitable conditions than previously, tomorrow (he’s best on quick ground).
It’s hard to see him not running well - though he may not quite be up to winning.
Dashing Perk is quite interesting for Dr Newland - on his second run in a hunter chase.
He ran well over the park course at Aintree in December - and whilst he was beaten on his hunter chase debut at Wincanton last month, he could easily improve on that tomorrow.
Latenightpass and Some Man can both be given a chance.
The former ran well behind Billaway at Cheltenham and may be better suited by the shorter trip tomorrow; whilst the latter will certainly appreciate the trip, even if he’s a little light on experience for a race of this nature.
Just focusing on jockeys: then Jamie Codd is on board Mighty Stowaway for Denise Foster. Whilst Derek O Connor rides Federici for Donald McCain.
Neither have obvious chances - but they will get the very best assistance from the saddle…
4:40
There’s only one handicap on the opening day - and maybe not surprisingly, it looks a very tough one to solve…
Destrier is the early favourite, for the Skeltons.
He finished third in a grade 1 over the course and distance, 2 years ago - and following that run,was rated 151.
He ran well off that mark, when third in the Haldon Gold cup on his first run of last season.
It’s all been downhill since however - and tomorrow he runs off a mark of 136.
Clearly he is potentially very well handicapped, if he is back in any kind of form.
It’s hard to know on that score - but if the support for him continues to the off, I suspect he will prove hard to beat…
Novices have a good record in this race - whilst it tends to pay to race handily in big field handicap chases (as you are less reliant on luck).
Editeur de Gite is a front running novice - and he arrives in good form.
He was a game winner at Newbury on his most recent outing - and a 7lb rating rise looks fair.
That said, it does mean that - in theory at least - he is held by Sully D’oc.
That one beat him by nearly 5 lengths at Ascot in October - but will be a pound better off tomorrow.
Sully Doc has only run twice since then: when third to Clondaw Caatle at Newbury - and then when a creditable eighth behind The Shunter in the plate at the Cheltenham festival.
He drops down in trip tomorrow - but has sufficient natural pace for that not to be an issue.
Grey Diamond is another front running novice - and he too arrives on the back of a win last time.
That was at Sandown, where he gamely held off Dostal Phil.
He meets the runner up on 5lb worse terms tomorrow, for a 3 length beating - and that should make it close between the pair.
Dostal Phil can certainly be given a chance - as can his stablemate, Zanza.
He was quite well fancied for the Grand Annual on his latest start - but was effectively put out of that race by a faller.
I would expect him to be eing better suited to Aintree than to Cheltenham - though his hold up style of running does make him a bit of a hostage to fortune.
Gaelic Coast is worthy of mention for Donald McCain, at his local track - particularly as he holds the well fancied Getaway Trump, on form at Musselburgh in February; whilst I could see Billingsley running much better than his dismissive odds suggest, if his recent wind surgery has had the desired effect.
He is a decent horse at his best - and his front running style should serve him well.
He’s also dropped to a very attractive mark.
If nothing else, he could make a decent IR play…
5:15
The final race of a top class card, looks as if it could be a match…
Eileendover is unbeaten in 3 bumper runs - and the form of her latest win at Market Rasen in January, is exceptionally strong.
That was a listed race and she absolutely hacked up.
More than that, the subsequent exploits of those who finished behind her, suggest she really could be from the top drawer…
Third placed Grangee won the mares bumper at the Dublin Racing festival on her next outing; whilst fourth placed Dragon Bones won a listed hurdle at Doncaster next time out.
Neither looked in the same league as Eileendover - so if that run can be taken at face value, she is going to be very hard to beat.
That said, she does face a worthy opponent in the shape of Elle Est Belle.
She was hugely impressive when hacking up on her debut at Aintree in October - if then a little fortunate, to be awarded a dead-heat at Cheltenham the following month.
However, she showed she was high class last time, when finishing third in the Champion bumper at the Cheltenham festival.
She was comfortably beaten that day - but was given a lot to do and is probably better than the bare form suggests.
That makes her very good indeed - and if Eileendover can dispatch her in the same way she’s dispatched everything else put in front of her, then we really will be witnessing sometime special.
Outside of the big 2, then half cases can be made for plenty.
Miss Lamb is possibly the most interesting - as she finished runner up to Eileendover in the Market Rasen race.
She was beaten 6 lengths that day and there is no obvious reason why she should reverse the form.
However, she could make some appeal EW or in the ‘w/o the fav’ market.
Me too Please is the other one that catches my eye, for Arthur Moore and Rachael Blackmoore.
It’s impossible to asses her form - but I wouldn’t associate Arthur Moore with bumper runners.
The fact he is prepared to bring this one over to Aintree, strikes me as particularly interesting.
She’ll have to be very good if she is to trouble the front 2 in the market - but I guess stranger things happen…
No comments:
Post a Comment