Wednesday, 7 April 2021

Review of the Weekend (Apr 3rd-5th)

This was definitely one of the strangest weekends of the entire season.

Spread over 3 days, it had no real focus - and felt quite disjointed.
It’s not that there weren’t some decent races - it’s just that there were long gaps between them.

With hindsight, it’s not one I’ll look back on with too much affection !


Saturday

Whilst it was the first day of the 3 day Easter meeting at Fairyhouse, there was nothing of interest on the card, so my attention was completely on Haydock.

In truth, there wasn’t too much of interest there - and I ended up with just the one Best bet on the day.

That was The Paddy Pie, who I hoped might be able to topple hot favourite, Five Star Getaway.

My angle was that it was impossible to quantify how good the favourite actually was - and there was a chance the handicapper might have caught up with him.

Alas that wasn’t the case - and he had no trouble in recording his third consecutive facile win.

The Paddy Pie ran well and finished third.
In truth, he would have been a good EW bet - as I was happy to eliminate half of the 8 runner field.

However, I tend not to suggest EW bets - and instead had a saver on the outsider Zolfo.
Unfortunately, he never featured…

The other bets on the day were all for the Matrix.

In the next race on the card, I took a position against the 3 market leaders - and used the Matrix to cover 3 of the bigger priced runners.
However, I got the race wrong, and second favourite, Vision du Puy was an easy winner.

The 2 other Matrix bets, were both speculative.

The first was Tel’Art and he ran really well for a 50/1 shot, and was beaten just over 3 lengths.
That was much better than Oriental Cross did.
She was the final bet on the day, but never travelled in the mares race - and was pulled up after a series of mistakes…

The one that got away ? - possibly Innisfree Lad.
He had finished third on his previous outing, 9 lengths behind Debece.
I couldn’t see him reversing that form, so dismissed him from my thinking.

I was keen on Debece - but when he was declared a non runner, I didn’t revisit the race.

Maybe I would have picked up on Innisfree lad - I’ll never know for sure.
I certainly wasn’t feeling overly happy when he battled back to win at 18/1…

All in all, not the best of days.


Sunday

I did hope that Sunday would be better than Saturday (there was plenty of scope !).

I found 3 best bets on the day - and quite liked them all.

Master McShee was the first of them to run.
I had narrowed his race down to the 3 market leaders - and felt he represented a bit of value at 11/2.

Maybe I was right - however, he was absolutely no match for the mare, Echoes in Rain.

She was given a waiting ride by Paul Townend and looked different league to her rivals, as she cruised into the lead on the run to last - and then quickened clear to win by 15 lengths.

She looked absolutely top class - and I suspect you will be hearing plenty more of her in the next few seasons.

Atlantic Fairy was the next Best bet to run.
I had narrowed the race down to her and Skyace - but huge support for the latter, made it an easy decision, on which one to suggest.

My original expectation had been that I would be suggesting Skyace - however very bullish comments from her trainer the evening before, meant that the early 8/1 had become 7/2 by the time I was able to tip.
By contrast Atlantic Fairy had drifted from 7/2 to 9/2…

By the off it was 4/1 the pair.

In the race itself, Atlantic Fairy attempted to make all - but she was swamped on the run to the last - and Skyace showed the best turn of foot, to get up close home.

Needless to say, it was all a bit frustrating.

If Skyace has been 4/1 in the morning (never mind the BSP of nearly 5/1), I may have gone the other way.

I guess these things happen - but it doesn’t stop them from being annoying !

It was also a bit annoying the way things panned out with the final Best bet on the day.

I was keen to take on the 2 market leaders in the grade 1 novice chase - and that was a good move.

I narrowed the race down to 2 - and decided to make Franco de Port the Best bet - and just save on Cedarwood Road.
Again, that was the right call - as Cedarwood Road took a nasty fall around half way.

Where it went wrong, was that Franco de Ports jockey chose to follow Asterion Forlonge - but he wasn’t the danger.

Janidil was the danger - and by the time he reacted to that, Janidil was gone.

Whether Franco could have beaten him is a different matter - but he was never given much of a chance.

Another frustrating race…

In the only other race of interest, Gentlemansgame ran disappointingly; whilst Ashdale Bob bounced back to form.
I had suggested in the preview that he might be a bit of value, if he could recapture his early season form - and so it proved.

Officially however, it was a no bet race.

Another disappointing day…


Monday


The final day of the Easter festival saw the running of the Irish Grand National.

With non runners causing plenty of confusion in the earlier races on the card, I decided to just focus on the main race of the day for bets - plus a decent race at Plumpton !

At the odds, I was pretty keen on Opposites Attract in the National - but he ran disappointingly.
I was happy with his early position in the race - but for whatever reason, he didn’t maintain it.

With half a mile to run, he was virtually last - and his jumping had become erratic.
He ran on late - but was never in with a chance of winning.

Meanwhile, at the head of affairs, his stablemate Freewheelin Dylan gave his younger rivals a lesson in jumping and galloping.

On the approach to the last, I did think that Run Wild Fred was going to pick him up and at least save things for the Matrix - but a sloppy jump put pay to his chances and Dylan galloped on remorselessly.

It was a result I couldn’t have foreseen - so kudos to Chris, who put the horse up as part of his ‘Win Vector’.
Not many will have posted a winner with a BSP of 312 !

In the earlier races on the Fairyhouse card, I had given positive mentions in the preview to both Stormy Island and Easy Game.
With hindsight, I could maybe have taken a risk on Stormy Island - but it was another race where a late non runner, completely changed things.

The final Best bet of the weekend was The Unit, at Plumpton.

I hadn’t intended to suggest him - but I liked the look of the race - and on a quiet day, figured he was worth a chance.

However, he got caught out by a fast early pace - and jumped poorly over the first couple of fences.
That effectively sealed his fate - and whilst he stayed on late for fourth place, he was never in contention.

I also saved on Solomon Grey for the Matrix - but he finished just a neck in front of The Unit.

The race was won by Pistol Whipped.
He was the 7/2 fav this morning - but I felt he had enough questions to answer, to warrant being taken on at that price.
However, come the off he was an 11/1 shot - which I honestly find quite amazing !
He was Nico de Boinvilles only ride on the card - and clearly had a fair chance.

What made the race for him, was a complete change of tactics.
Normally held up, he instead set out to make all - and clearly relishing the better ground - did precisely that !

Again, the situation at the off, was completely different to the situation at 10:00 this morning.
If I’d been suggesting bets 5 mins before the off, I might easily have gone another way…

In summary, not the best of weekends !

TVB.

No comments:

Post a Comment

End of season report

  Introduction   A number of changes were made to the TVB service for the 2020-21 season.   Perhaps the most significant, was the formal s...