Todays Suggested bets
All of the Grand National bets (5:15) should be placed on the exchanges.
The odds are much better and there is plenty of liquidity.
Matrix bets
Aintree
2:25
Llandinabo Lad 2 units win 20/1
3:35
Diol Ker 5 units win 12/1
5:15
Burrows Saint 5 units win 9/1 (11.5)
Any Second Now 2 units win 11/1 (14)
Cloth Cap 2 units win 11/2 (7)
Kimberlite Candy 1 unit win 20/1 (23)
Magic of Light 1 unit win 20/1 (25)
The Long Mile 1 unit win 80/1 (100)
Best bets
Aintree
3:35
Diol Ker 0.5pt win 12/1
5:15
Burrows Saint 0.5pt win 9/1
It’s been hard to find bets this week - and that’s the case again today…
The main issue is the extra level of uncertainty that comes at the end of a season.
Some of the horses have been on the go for months - and so could be over the top; whilst others are being brought back after a break - and may not be cherry ripe.
There’s the specific impact of Cheltenham (has it left a mark ?); plus the different ground to consider (ignoring the watering !).
And that’s before you try and find the best horse in the race - and get a fair price about it !
As a result, I’ve been light on bets - but generally, I’ve been keen on the ones I’ve put up.
That’s certainly the case for the 2 Best bets that I’ve suggested today - even if one of them is in the most competitive race of the season !
The winner of the Grand National, a Best bet - now wouldn’t that be a nice way to end things :)
For the last time for a few months, here’s the rational behind today bets…
Aintree
The opening race (1:45) is one I should be taking on with the Matrix - but I’ve given up trying to make that work with early bookmaker prices.
Once again, the horses have been priced up to defend enhanced EW terms - and the price on offer from the bookmakers bear little resemblance to the chance of the horse winning the race (it’s a reflection of the chance of it finishing in the first 5).
My short list for the race would have been as follows (bookmaker price first - exchange price in brackets):
Hometown Boy 9/1 (12)
Barnaviddaun 10/1 (13)
Janika 20/1 (22)
Come on Teddy 6/1 (8.4)
Ballybegg 12/1 (13.5)
I’ve backed them all at roughly those prices, which equates to around 5/2 on one of them winning.
With the bookmakers, it’s less than 2/1…
My Drogo is going to be hard to beat in the 2:25.
Do your Job, franked his form yesterday, when going very close. However, he also franked the form of Llandinabo Lad.
He beat Do your Job by 4 lengths at Haydock in November. He also ran My Drogo to 3 lengths at Ascot in December, when conceding 5lbs.
Both of those form lines suggest there is little between My Drogo and Llandinabo Lad - whilst the latter should improve for a step up in trip.
The ground is a slight concern - as is the form of the Tom Symonds stable - but at 20/1 Llandinabo Lad is worth a small play on the Matrix.
Shishkin can’t be opposed in the 3:00 - it’s just a question of whether there might be a bet in the ‘w/o the fav’ market.
I think Gumball is the second best horse in the race - but I’m also conscious that the race may not play out in his favour.
He’s likely to lead - but may well fade out of contention, once Shishkin sails past !
Longhouse Poet can be backed at 9/2 in the ‘w/o the fav’ market - and may be worth a small play at that price.
That said, it’s not a bet I would feel particularly strongly about…
I’m pretty keen on Diol Ker in the 3:35.
It’s a shame that he beat Monkfish as a novice - as that’s a form line people will pick up on - and I’m not sure it’s particularly relevant !
More relevant is his latest run behind Sams Profile at Gowran in January - and the fact the Noel Meade has chosen to run him in this race, rather than running his stablemate, Beacon Edge.
Beacon Edge would have had a very obvious chance (he was fourth in the stayers hurdle at Cheltenham - just behind Paisley Park) and would probably have been third fav for this race.
The ground is an unknown for Diol Ker - but presumably Noel Meade believes he will handle it.
I think Thyme Hill is the main danger - but Diol Ker is a good bet to beat him.
I’m a bit disappointed that I can’t find anything in the 4:15.
Happygolucky is the obvious one - but 3/1 on the back of a hard race at Cheltenham, holds limited appeal.
The trouble is, I can’t find anything solid to oppose him with.
Spiritofthegames should run well - but doesn’t like to win - whilst there are doubts/question marks over all of the others.
Calipso Collonge probably holds most appeal, from a falling handicap mark and in a change of headgear. However, he’s not the most consistent - and shouldn’t really have the class to win a race of this nature.
I’ve been keen on Burrow Saint for the National (5:15) for quite a few months - and I remain keen !
It strikes me that he has the perfect profile for a National winner - and Willie Mullins has clearly been bringing him to a peak for this day.
Time and time again, Mullins has shown that he can prepare one perfectly for the big day - and I suspect Burrows Saint will be tuned to run for his life.
He won the Irish National as a 6 year old - which is almost unheard of - off a mark just 11lb lower than he races off today.
All of the interim period has just been marking time for today - and he is now a more mature horse.
He’ll obviously need to take to the fences; and to have luck in running.
He’s also likely to need to have at least half a stone in hand, if he’s to beat Cloth Cap - however, I’m optimistic on all those scores…
In fact, it’s a long time since I’ve felt as confident about one in the National - I really think he will win !
If he doesn’t (!), then I think that only Cloth Cap or Any Second Now, are capable of beating him, in terms of ability.
They are both worth saving on the Matrix.
More speculatively, I’ll also add in Kimberlite Candy, Magic of Light and The Long Mile.
I’d expect the first 2 named to run really well - and both are strong candidates to place.
The Long Mile is a rank outsider - but he’s young and progressive - and ran really well last time behind Acapello Borgeois and Burrows Saint.
If there is to be a huge surprise in the race, I think he is the one most likely to cause it.
I was never going to get involved with finale (6:20) - though I am intrigued to watch the market…
The Gossiper has continued to be very strong - and whilst I still expect him to drift at some point, I wonder when exactly !
If I was going to back one in the race, then it would be him - but I’d be after at least double the current 3/1…
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