After the disappointment of losing all of todays racing, I was very hopeful that there would be some opportunities at Exeter tomorrow.
It’s a decent card - even if none of the races are on terrestrial TV - and there are a couple of races, where I may well be able to find a bet.
However, it now looks as if the meeting may well be lost...
The ground has been frozen since Monday - and whilst a thaw is expected to start shortly, it’s probably going to be a case of too little, too late.
They will inspect early tomorrow morning - and I wouldn’t be surprised if things drag on for a few hours - but whether any action will actually take place, remains to be seen.
Even if it does, such situations tend to lead to lots of non runners - so my raised hopes are now fading !
From what I can tell, there are no issues expected at Punchestown - so I would at least expect that meeting to take place.
However, it’s not a particularly strong card - with only the Grand National trial, warranting close inspection.
I’ll therefore preview that race - along with the main 2 races from Exeter (and keep my fingers crossed that they take place !)
Exeter
3:40
Leg 1 of the 2021 veterans chase series - and there’s a whole new set of ‘veterans’ now qualified to compete !
Included in the ranks of the ‘newbies’, is Beau Bay - our hero from Aintree in December, when he won the Grand Sefton at Aintree.
Arguably, this is a slightly weaker race - and he could easily go close, off a mark just 4lb higher.
That said, he’s unproven over tomorrows 3 mile trip: and I did feel he had been targeted at the Aintree race (whereas tomorrow. It’s a simple case of the race making sense, for him).
Bobo Mac and Yalltari are two other 10 years olds, who are both worthy of close attention.
The former ran really well to finish sixth in the Welsh National on his most recent outing - seeming not quite to stay the extreme trip.
He should be suited by a reversion to 3 miles - and it’s hard to see him going very close.
Yalltari caught my eye last time (and the eye of a few others !), when seemingly tanking through the Ascot race won by Enqard.
I made the winner a Best bet that day - but turning in, I thought Yalltari looked a real danger.
However, that wasn’t how it worked out, as Yalltari couldn’t make up the ground - though he still ran a very good race, to ultimately only be beaten 5 lengths.
Late Romantic won a leg of last seasons veterans series at Haydock in December; before finishing fifth in the Classic chase at Warwick, last month.
He’s clearly in good form at the moment, and is another one who should run well tomorrow.
Royal Vacation and Acting Lass are both handicapped to win - but have big questions marks over them…
The former is making his belated seasonal debut - and would prefer decent ground (which he is unlikely to get); whilst the latter is horribly out of form (pulled up on his 3 most recent outings).
If either were able to run to its best tomorrow, then they would be hard to beat - though it would require an act of faith, to support them.
4:10
An 18 runner Pertemps qualifier - this race looks like a bit of a minefield !
Some of the horses will be running simply to get a bit of fitness: whilst others will be running to try and qualify for the final of the series.
Two or three might even be trying to win the race - the tricky bit will be working out which ones !
A rating of 134 was sufficient to get into last years final - so off 135 there’s a fair chance that Southfield Harvest will make the cut this year - though it’s not guaranteed.
Connections would probably be happy to see him raised a couple of pounds, to make sure - but he’s likely to get more than that, if he wins.
A dilemma !
All of the runners rated above him in tomorrow race, are likely to get place in the final, provided they can finish in the first 6.
However, they are likely to reduce their chances of winning the final, if they win tomorrow.
Another dilemma !!
The best solution may be to ignore the fact it’s a qualifier - and instead try to find the best handicapped horse, who would simply be happy to win tomorrows race !
Portrush Ted is not badly handicapped off a mark just 5lb higher than when winning at Sandown in December.
He subsequently blew out in the Long Walk hurdle at Ascot - but that was a grade 1 contest and took place just 2 weeks after his Sandown win.
He’s a fragile horse, so long term planning is impossible.
If he’s ready to run, then connections have to run him…
Agrapart will have an excellent chance - provided the ground is heavy.
He can get away with soft - but his strength is being able to plough through barely raceable ground.
If he gets that tomorrow, he will be hard to beat.
Aside from Southfield Harvest, then Does he Know is the most interesting of the unexposed horses…
He is still a novice and ran up a a trio of wins in the autumn, before running out last time, in the grade 1 Challow hurdle.
That was a bit of a blip (!) - and it’s interesting that he gets a first time hood tomorrow.
If that has the desired effect then he’s probably well handicapped off a mark of 143.
Palmers Hill is the final one on the short list.
He’s another who appears very hard to keep sound, having only run 3 times in past 3 years.
However, he clearly has a lot of ability - and is almost certainly capable of winning a race such as this.
Kevin Brogan is an eye catching booking - though I suspect the market will advise on expectations !
Punchestown
4:30
3m4f in heavy ground is going to take a bit of getting - this race is likely to be won by thorough stayer…
The Big Dog has been installed the early favourite - and that’s understandable.
He has a touch of class - and potential for improvement over fences.
He also has crack amateur, Jamie Codd, in the saddle (it’s unusual for him to ride in an ‘open’ race) - though whether the horse will relish the extreme stamina test, remains to be seen.
Midnight Maestro is also prominent in the market.
He won at Leopardstown over Christmas , on only his third start for Enda Bolger (he was previously with Alan King, in the UK).
That was a career best - but he’s stepping up in trip by a mile tomorrow.
Again, how he will cope with that, only time will tell.
Born with the Sea is another fancied horse, who is yet to prove he can cope with tomorrows marathon trip.
That said, he does appear to be a real stayer - and his recent narrow defeat by Diol Ker, looks very good in light of the winners subsequent effort in the Grade 2 Galmoy hurdle.
Admittedly that was over hurdles - but Born with the Sea had looked useful on his previous outing, when winning a novice chase at Wetherby.
Set against that, he’s still only 7 - and has run 12 times on the flat.
That’s hardly the kind of profile you would associate with the winner of a Grand National trial !
With question marks over most of the market principals there must be a chance that there could be a shock result - though unfortunately, there are quite a few who could provide that - if on a going day !
Gordon Elliott runs 6 in the race - and whilst they are all a bit ‘gnarled’, a few of them look potentially well handicapped…
Roaring Bull won last seasons Paddy Power chase - and finished second in this years Troytown.
He’s now 2lb lower than he was in the latter event - and just 4lb higher than when winning last Christmas.
From a handicapping perspective, he’s weighted to go close - and he is Jack Kennedy’s chosen mount.
Dounikos is the other Elliott runner that particularly catches the eye.
He won this race 2 years ago - and off a mark 7lb higher than he races from tomorrow.
He’s shown absolutely nothing is 6 subsequent runs - but the fitting of first time cheek pieces tomorrow is an interesting move.
If they have the desired effect, then he could go very close…
The Joseph O’Brien trained Thermistocles, is the final one of interest.
He’s only run 3 times over fences, so is a bit light on chasing experience.
However, he ran well over hurdles on his belated seasonal debut at Naas, a fortnight ago.
A lot will depend on how he’s come out of that race - but if it’s brought him on and provided his jumping stands the test, then he is likely to run a big race.
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