After a month with minimal action, things picked up significantly this weekend.
The 2 day Dublin Racing Festival was the highlight - but there was also quality racing at both Sandown and Musselburgh.Saturday
A very busy day - with plenty of uncertainty - saw me issue 4 Best bets across the days 3 meetings, along with a few additional bets for the Matrix…
Billingsley was the first of the Best bets to run - in the opener at Sandown.
I liked his profile: a confirmed mud lark with a very low weight, who might get an uncontested lead.
I wasn’t the only one who was taken by him however - as the early 14/1 had turned in to 13/2 at the off !
Alas, things didn’t turn out quite as hoped in the race.
Instead of getting an uncontested lead, Billinglsey got into a battle with Moonlighter - and ultimately, that one proved the stronger.
Things might have been different if Moonlighter had not survived a bad mistake at the very first fence - but he did - and was never subsequently headed.
Billingsley on the other hand, gradually made his way back through the field - and ended up the last horse to cross the line.
I also covered Caribean Boy for the Matrix - but he ran disappointingly and never featured…
Christopher Wood was the next Best bet to run - and I did fancy him.
He was contesting a relatively weak race at Musselburgh and I found it hard to see him not going close.
The trouble is, plenty of others saw it the same way and he was just a 7/2 shot early.
Maybe I should have had one point on him - but I thought the value was limited, so stuck with half a point.
In the race itself, he was always front rank - and whilst it looked like he might come off worse in a late battle with Voix de Reve, he stuck on gamely under a good ride from Angus Cheleda and was ultimately a comfortable winner.
It was a decent performance - and obviously pleasing to get a win - even if he only did what the form book said he should have done !
The final 2 Best bets on the day, were both in big field handicaps at Leopardstown.
Port Stanley was the first to run, in the 2 mile chase.
Unfortunately he missed the break and didn’t manage to get the prominent position I was hoping for.
He ended up running a disappointing race - never featuring and finishing nearer last than first…
I also covered The Shunter in the race, for the Matrix - but he too didn’t run the race I expected.
I thought he would be held up - but instead he attempted to make all.
He got outpaced after jumping the second last - but then stayed on again, to take third.
He almost certainly needs more of a stamina test - either a longer trip; softer ground - or a more demanding course…
The Moyglass Flyer was the final Best bet of the day - and I was quite keen on him.
Again, I wasn’t alone and he was sent off 4/1 favourite in an ultra competitive 22 runner handicap.
He took up a prominent position early - and things still seemed to be going well, jumping the second last.
However, in a few strides he was beaten - and ultimately, didn’t even finish the race.
Maybe something went wrong physically (he could have bled) - but whatever, it was disappointing…
I also covered Saint D’oroux, He’s a Hardy Bloke and Advanced Virgo, for the Matrix.
Advanced Virgo briefly threatened rounding the home turn - before his effort petered out; whilst Saint D’oroux looked poised to mount a telling challenge approaching the last - but then faded into third place…
The days other Matrix bets were at Sandown - but again, it was a case of close but no cigar.
Doitforthevillage was held up at the back by Richard Johnson in the 2m4f chase, before making a big mid-race move.
It briefly looked as if he was going to sweep into the lead (he touched 2.5 IR) - but his stamina gave out after jumping the third last and he faded to finish a very tired fourth.
In the 3 mile chase, I was keen to take on favourite, Ask me Early, as he looked far too short a price.
That was a good call, as he was in trouble very early and pulled up with 6 fences still to jump.
My 2 against the field were Coo Star Sivola and Calipso Collonges and approaching the last, the pair of them were bearing down on leader, Diese Aba.
I felt sure that one of them would go past - but neither could summon up the extra energy, whilst the the leader just kept on galloping.
It was a particularly frustrating race to watch !
Earlier on the Sandown card, Sporting John ploughed through the mud, and proved too strong for Shan Blue, in the grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase.
It was a slightly surprising result - and I can’t believe that such a hard race will have done anything for the chances of the runner-up at Cheltenham.
Native River was a heart warming winner of the Cotswold chase - jumping from fence to fence and battling tenaciously when challenged by Bristol De Mai.
Even with no financial involvement, it was a very enjoyable race to watch.
Over at Leopardstown, Gaillard du Mesnil, Energumene, Chacun Pour Soi, Honeysuckle and Kilcruit were all hugely impressive short priced winning favourites.
All 5 are likely to take some beating when they aim to double up at the Cheltenham festival.
Sunday
Despite there being some quite valuable prizes on offer, the racing at Musselburgh was uninspiring.
My focus was therefore completely on day 2 of the Dublin Racing festival…
With another batch of short priced favourites, dominating the conditions races, I again had to turn to the days handicaps for most of the bets - though I also chanced my arm in the couple of the graded contests.
I ended up with 3 Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.
The first Best bet ran in the opening mares handicap hurdle…
In truth, it was race that I intended to leave alone, as on first viewing, it looked nearly impossible to solve.
However, I had made Heaven Help Us a Best bet on day 2 of the season - so I was intrigued to see her returned to hurdling.
She’d performed poorly in 4 recent chase starts - but as a result had become potentially very well handicapped.
The fitting of first time cheek pieces was an interesting move - whilst the booking of a 7lb claimer made a potentially attractive handicap mark, irresistible !
I couldn’t decide whether to make her a Best bet or just cover her in the Matrix - and I suspect that if Christopher Wood hadn’t won on Saturday, it would have been the latter.
That’s how fine these lines are !
In the race itself, she slightly missed the break, from a standing start - but her jockey soon had her contesting the lead.
She was reigned back slightly after jumping the first - but remained in a clear second place, until striking for home after jumping the second last.
She was 5 lengths clear approaching the last - but by then, had been alone in front for a long time !
She lost a bit of momentum jumping the final flight - but just managed to find sufficient to withstand the late challenge of Global Equity.
There’s little doubt in my mind, that she was the best horse in the race - and by some margin.
But the way the race unfolded, almost saw her beaten.
Thankfully however, it was ’almost’ - and she managed to come home in front !
It’s bizarre to think how many similar finishes went against us in the first few weeks of the season.
Since then, they have generally gone the other way (he said, tempting fate !)
Ofcourse, it’s really important that luck smiles on you for the big ones - and at 25/1, she was certainly one of those !
I don’t consider myself a religious man - but maybe Heaven did help us :)
Unfortunately, that was it in terms of major excitement for the afternoon (though in fairness, it was also going to take a bit of beating !)
I suggested Delta Work in the Irish Gold cup, as I felt he represented value, in a very tight contest.
He probably did - and even more so at the off, following a big drift.
However, it was immaterial, as Kemboy got an uncontested lead - and had sufficient in reserve to hold off all challengers.
Delta Work ran on to take third place - but never remotely looked like winning.
Trainwreck was the final Best bet of the day - in an ultra competitive 2m5f handicap chase.
He wasn’t my main fancy in the race - but I could make a good case for him running well - and at 20/1+, he definitely represented ‘value’.
It’s easy to be sucked into backing the most likely winners in those kind of races - but ultimately luck counts for a great deal, so a value call is usually the better option.
Unfortunately however, he never featured in the race - and ended up well beaten.
Farlcas was my main fancy in the race - but I felt his price was too short.
I did cover him in the Matrix however - and he looked the most likely winner, approaching the final fence.
However, he weakened on the run, eventually finishing fourth.
There were just a couple of other Matrix bets on the day: Asterion Forlonge and Andy Dufresne, against Monkfish.
Up until that point, I’d resisted the temptation to take on any of the ‘good things’ running at the meeting - but I felt Monkfish might be vulnerable.
Alas, I was completely wrong and he ended up possibly the most impressive winner them all !
It’s really hard to know what to do about the increasing number of short priced winners at these big meetings.
There was 8 of them across the 2 days - with all bar one, being sent off odds on.
I can’t back them at those prices (or suggest you do !) - but equally, opposing them seems futile.
As a consequence, half of the races can’t really be considered from a betting perspective.
It’s certainly something that will be playing on my mind, in the run up to the Cheltenham festival…
Still, I guess that whilst I can keep find the odd one like Heaven Help Us, I’m unlikely to get too many complaints :)
TVB.
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