Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Leopardstown
1:10
Heaven Help Us 5 units win 25/1
3:10
Asterion Forlonge 2 units win 10/1
Andy Dufresne 2 units win 11/1
3:40
Delta Work 5 units win 4/1
4:10
Trainwreck 5 units win 22/1
Farclas 2 units win 13/2
At the Acorn 2 units win 14/1
Best bets
Leopardstown
1:10
Heaven Help Us 0.5 pt win 25/1 (20/1 is acceptable)
3:40
Delta Work 0.5pt win 4/1
4:10
Trainwreck 0.5pt win 22/1 (20/1 is acceptable)
The fields for day 2 of the Dublin Racing Festival aren’t
quite as strong as they were on day 1 - but it’s still top class
action.
As with yesterday, the main issue is that a few races have very short priced favourites - and that makes it hard to get involved with them.
Whilst it’s an 8 race card, 3 or 4 of the races are unattractive from a betting perspective - unless you are going to get creative with your bets (eg. w/o the fav or each way).
As it’s my aim to make all of the official TVB bets ‘win only’ - these races are pretty much off bounds.
Despite that I’ve managed to find 3 Best bets on the day - 2 of them at big prices.
I’ve also added in a sprinkling of bets for the Matrix - to support/enhance !
Elsewhere, I was a little surprised to see Musselburgh pass its early morning inspection.
As I said in the preview, I could see nothing of interest in the televised races - but now that I know the racing will be taking place, I’ll look at the other races on the card and see if I can find any angles.
If I do uncover anything, I’ll post on the Live thread in the forum, this afternoon…
Leopardstown
I’ve not taken many risks with the Best bets this season - but I can’t resist Heaven help Us in the opener…
This is the second time I’ve suggested her this season - and I was pretty keen on her first time.
That was because having watched all of her previous races, I felt she had the potential to be a fair bit better than she’d shown.
She disappointed that day - and has disappointed in 3 subsequent starts - but it could simply be that she hasn’t taken to fences.
Back over hurdles, she is handicapped to win, on her form of last year.
First time cheek pieces is a really interesting move - as is the booking of a 7lb claimer.
She could easily blow out - but equally, she if she does bounce back, I really think she could win.
I did consider just covering her on the Matrix - but at 20/1+, in a very winnable race, she’s a Best bet.
It was easy enough to leave the 1:40 alone.
I felt Quilixios was opposable at even money - but so did everyone else and he’s now a 7/4 shot.
The other issue was what to take him on with.
Youmdor is the obvious one - but he’s now joint fav: whilst Saint Sam is the alternative - but he too has been well backed.
I think I’ll just be watching…
It’s hard to look beyond Appreciate It in the 2:10 - but impossible to back him at 1/2.
Probably the best bet in the race, is Irascible in the ‘w/o the fav’ market.
I think he is most likely to chase home Appreciate It - and 9/2 is probably a fair price (though not overly generous)
Despite being one of the races I could have got involved with, the 2:40 holds minimal betting appeal.
I’ve had small plays myself, on Unexpected Depth and Ballyshannon Rose - but more in hope than expectation.
If Frontal Assault comes in for significant support, then he will be of interest - conversely, if he drifts, he’s probably one to avoid…
Whilst I’ve resisted taking on most of the short priced favs at the meeting, I’m prepared to have a half hearted play against Monkfish.
He may not be overrated - but I don’t think he is that much superior to the pack - and the conditions he faces today, aren’t ideal.
In fairness, I could have said the same about Honeysuckle yesterday - and that one didn’t end well !
Asterion Forlonge and Andy Dufresne are both penitentially top class - and should be better suited by this intermediate trip than the fav.
I’m slightly concerned that Asterion might be ridden just to get round; whilst Andy Dufresne isn’t the hardiest of battlers - but I still think they are worth dutching to small stakes, against the fav.
I’m a little surprised that Delta Work is a relatively easy to back 4/1 shot, in the Irish Gold Cup (3:40).
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and on that form holds Kemboy.
He’s a much better horse at Leopardstown - and I suspect this is the main race of the season for him.
Melon is far from guaranteed to get the trip: whilst Minella Indo still has enough to prove, and is just to short at 7/4, on the back of a fall last time.
In the circumstances, Delta Work is definitely the value call in the race.
I was intending to make Farclas a Best bet in the 4:10 - but his price has collapsed…
He’s caught my eye in both of his runs this season - and I think todays test will suit him perfectly - but 11/2 is very short in a competitive 22 runner race…
Based on his last run in the Paddy Power chase, he has little in hand of Trainwreck.
The 2 of them jumped the last together - and Farclas stayed on the better.
However Trainwreck is a pound better off today - and should have improved for the run.
He also finished an unlucky second in this race, last year - with 5 lengths back to the third placed horse - and is just 2lb higher today.
I’m pretty sure that he has been targeted at todays contest - and at 4 times the price of Farclas, is the value call.
I’ll cover Farclas on the Matrix - as he does have a very good chance (and may drift a little); whilst At the Acorn is also worth a small bet for the Matrix (assuming he gets a run).
He ran well in the race 12 months ago and will doubtless have been primed for today.
As with yesterday, the main issue is that a few races have very short priced favourites - and that makes it hard to get involved with them.
Whilst it’s an 8 race card, 3 or 4 of the races are unattractive from a betting perspective - unless you are going to get creative with your bets (eg. w/o the fav or each way).
As it’s my aim to make all of the official TVB bets ‘win only’ - these races are pretty much off bounds.
Despite that I’ve managed to find 3 Best bets on the day - 2 of them at big prices.
I’ve also added in a sprinkling of bets for the Matrix - to support/enhance !
Elsewhere, I was a little surprised to see Musselburgh pass its early morning inspection.
As I said in the preview, I could see nothing of interest in the televised races - but now that I know the racing will be taking place, I’ll look at the other races on the card and see if I can find any angles.
If I do uncover anything, I’ll post on the Live thread in the forum, this afternoon…
Leopardstown
I’ve not taken many risks with the Best bets this season - but I can’t resist Heaven help Us in the opener…
This is the second time I’ve suggested her this season - and I was pretty keen on her first time.
That was because having watched all of her previous races, I felt she had the potential to be a fair bit better than she’d shown.
She disappointed that day - and has disappointed in 3 subsequent starts - but it could simply be that she hasn’t taken to fences.
Back over hurdles, she is handicapped to win, on her form of last year.
First time cheek pieces is a really interesting move - as is the booking of a 7lb claimer.
She could easily blow out - but equally, she if she does bounce back, I really think she could win.
I did consider just covering her on the Matrix - but at 20/1+, in a very winnable race, she’s a Best bet.
It was easy enough to leave the 1:40 alone.
I felt Quilixios was opposable at even money - but so did everyone else and he’s now a 7/4 shot.
The other issue was what to take him on with.
Youmdor is the obvious one - but he’s now joint fav: whilst Saint Sam is the alternative - but he too has been well backed.
I think I’ll just be watching…
It’s hard to look beyond Appreciate It in the 2:10 - but impossible to back him at 1/2.
Probably the best bet in the race, is Irascible in the ‘w/o the fav’ market.
I think he is most likely to chase home Appreciate It - and 9/2 is probably a fair price (though not overly generous)
Despite being one of the races I could have got involved with, the 2:40 holds minimal betting appeal.
I’ve had small plays myself, on Unexpected Depth and Ballyshannon Rose - but more in hope than expectation.
If Frontal Assault comes in for significant support, then he will be of interest - conversely, if he drifts, he’s probably one to avoid…
Whilst I’ve resisted taking on most of the short priced favs at the meeting, I’m prepared to have a half hearted play against Monkfish.
He may not be overrated - but I don’t think he is that much superior to the pack - and the conditions he faces today, aren’t ideal.
In fairness, I could have said the same about Honeysuckle yesterday - and that one didn’t end well !
Asterion Forlonge and Andy Dufresne are both penitentially top class - and should be better suited by this intermediate trip than the fav.
I’m slightly concerned that Asterion might be ridden just to get round; whilst Andy Dufresne isn’t the hardiest of battlers - but I still think they are worth dutching to small stakes, against the fav.
I’m a little surprised that Delta Work is a relatively easy to back 4/1 shot, in the Irish Gold Cup (3:40).
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and on that form holds Kemboy.
He’s a much better horse at Leopardstown - and I suspect this is the main race of the season for him.
Melon is far from guaranteed to get the trip: whilst Minella Indo still has enough to prove, and is just to short at 7/4, on the back of a fall last time.
In the circumstances, Delta Work is definitely the value call in the race.
I was intending to make Farclas a Best bet in the 4:10 - but his price has collapsed…
He’s caught my eye in both of his runs this season - and I think todays test will suit him perfectly - but 11/2 is very short in a competitive 22 runner race…
Based on his last run in the Paddy Power chase, he has little in hand of Trainwreck.
The 2 of them jumped the last together - and Farclas stayed on the better.
However Trainwreck is a pound better off today - and should have improved for the run.
He also finished an unlucky second in this race, last year - with 5 lengths back to the third placed horse - and is just 2lb higher today.
I’m pretty sure that he has been targeted at todays contest - and at 4 times the price of Farclas, is the value call.
I’ll cover Farclas on the Matrix - as he does have a very good chance (and may drift a little); whilst At the Acorn is also worth a small bet for the Matrix (assuming he gets a run).
He ran well in the race 12 months ago and will doubtless have been primed for today.
No comments:
Post a Comment