It was a little ominous to see all 5 of the conditions races at Leopardstown today, won by short priced favourites…
That seems to be the case more and more nowadays, at the big festivals.
The big stables, get the best horses - and ensure they are spot on for the big days.
Thankfully, I opted not to take on any of them (and I was never going to be suggesting backing any of them !). However, it does mean that I can be limited to suggesting bets in the handicaps (which tend to be ferociously competitive - and require a deal of luck)
There are few more ‘obvious’ ones tomorrow at Leopardstown - so I suspect I’ll be swerving those races and hoping I can pick the right ones in the handicaps.
In addition to Leopardstown, there should also be racing on Terrestrial TV, from Musselburgh.
However, the meeting will need to survive an early inspection (and I’m not optimistic it will) - and even if it does, the 4 televised races don’t offer any betting opportunities (bizarrely there are 2 novice hurdles, a juvenile hurdle - and a small field Pertemps qualifier).
As a consequence, the preview for tomorrow is completely focused on day 2 of the Dublin Racing festival…
Leopardstown
1:10
The card opens up with a mares handicap hurdle.
The race lacks a bit of quality - but that is more than made up for by numbers !
A maximum field of 20 will go to post - and it’s not an easy race to unravel…
Willie Mullins trains 6 of the runners - and his best chance of success seems to be with Dysart Diamond.
She has only run 3 times over hurdles - but was an impressive winner last time, on her handicap debut at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
She’s been raised 11lb for that win - but there could easily be more improvement in her…
She is disputing favouritism with Tellmesomethinggirl.
She too is relatively inexperienced - but has won 3 of her 4 hurdles races this season and is clearly improving fast.
She is the only runner in the race for Henry De Bromhead - and is in the same ownership as Honeysuckle.
If she’s half as good as that one, she’ll take some beating in this !
Mrs Milner went agonisingly close to winning at Cheltenham in November - but couldn't quite overhaul On the Blind Side.
That was over 3 miles - and she drops back to 2m2f tomorrow.
In theory that could be an issue - however she won over 2 miles at Galway in July.
I think she would be better over a slightly longer trip - but if there’s a strong pace and the ground is soft, then her stamina should prove very useful.
I made Heaven Help Us a Best bet on day 2 of the season - when she ran in a novice chase at Cork.
She was very disappointing that day - and has been equally disappointing in 3 subsequent races.
However, she returns to hurdles tomorrow - and cheekpieces are applied for the first time.
Based on her hurdles form from last year, she has a really good chance of a mark of just 126.
She finished second to Abracadbras in a grade 1 at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting; and seventh to Shishkin in the Supreme at Cheltenham.
If she could re-find that form, she would win - so therefore has to be of interest at a big price.
1:40
The first of the days grade 1s, has drawn a relatively disappointing field…
Gordon Elliott has a particularly strong hand of juvenile hurdlers this season - though Quilixios isn’t at the top of that pile.
It’s therefore a little surprising to see him installed an even money favourite for this race.
Granted he’s won his 2 Irish races without breaking sweat - but he has faced only modest opposition - and also hasn’t been seen for over 3 months...
Tomorrows race will represent a very different test for him - and whilst he might be up to it, I couldn’t entertaining supporting him at current odds.
The problem is what to oppose him with.
Willie Mullins trains the next 3 in the betting - and if Quilixios is beaten, it is likely to be by one of them.
Youmdor is the obvious one.
He won on his Irish debut at Gowran in November - and would have followed up at Fairyhouse last month, if he’d not taken a final flight fall.
There’s a slight worry that might have left a mark - but if it hasn’t then I would expect him to go close.
Saint Sam and Ha D’or are the other 2 Mullins runners.
They both contested the grade 1 Knight Frank juvenile at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting - but were put in their place by the Elliott trained Zanahiyr.
That said, both performed with credit - particularly considering their relative inexperience.
Ha D’or just came out best of the pair - on only his second ever run; however it was Saint Sam who caught the eye, as he got trapped at a crucial point in the race, before finishing strongly.
You couldn’t be confident over which one will do best tomorrow - and it is possible that they may both be slightly shy of the required level.
However, it wouldn’t be a major surprise if either one showed significant improvement, which would probably put them right in the mix.
2:10
It seems ridiculous that Appreciate It has been installed a 1/2 favourite for a 15 runner grade 1 novice hurdle - but equally, it’s hard to argue with !
He was a hugely impressive winner of a similar race at Leopardstown over Christmas - when his main rivals tomorrow, all finished upwards of 9 lengths behind him.
There’s a chance that Irascible may reduce the deficit, with that experience under his belt: whilst Ballyadam was very disappointing and could well run better - but it’s hard to see why either one should reverse the form…
Blue Lord should be better suited to tomorrows 2 mile trip, than he was to 2m4f on his most recent start - but again, he has a lot to find if he’s to trouble the favourite.
Outside of those 3, you are really clutching at straws !
Suffice to say, if Appreciate It jumps round cleanly - and doesn’t encounter any bad luck in running, it’s highly unlikely that he will be beaten.
2:40
The second handicap of the day, this isn’t a race that particularly grabs me…
As with all these big handicaps, the place to start, is the JP McManus runners - particularly the one ridden by Mark Walsh.
He rides Damalisque in this - and the horse has already been backed in to 4/1 favouritism.
He was a very easy winner at Navan, just 9 days ago - and whilst he has to carry a 12lb penalty for the win, if he’s in the same form tomorrow, it probably won’t be enough to stop him from following up.
JP also owns the second favourite - Pure Genius.
He will be having his first run in a handicap - and whilst it’s hard to judge accurately,
an opening mark of 127 doesn’t appear overly harsh.
Like Drop the Anchor today, he will be ridden by Simon Torrens - and his 5lb claim is a bit of a gift.
It will be interesting to see how the 2 horses move in the late betting…
Ballyshannon Rose and Unexpected Depth, both bring strong handicap form to the race.
The former has already won 4 handicaps this season, with his rating rising from an initial 87 to the 129 he races off tomorrow.
The handicapper will get to him sooner or later - but he clearly has a strong desire to win and that will always stand him in good stead.
Unexpected Depth won on his seasonal debut, before finished third in a decent handicap last time.
However, he lost little in that race - and I suspect he will remain competitive off a mark just 3lb higher…
Frontal Assault is the final one of interest.
He represents the Gordon Elliott/Jack Kennedy combination and will be having his first run in a handicap after 4 runs in novice events.
He was a good winner of his most recent race at Thurles - and the fitting of cheek pieces for his handicap debut is an interesting move.
I would expect him to come in for support, if connections believe he is well handicapped.
3:10
There’s another heavily odds on favourite in this, in the shape of Monkfish.
However, unlike Appreciate It, he doesn’t strike me as completely bomb proof…
For a start, he’s running in a novice chase (where accidents are more likely !) - plus he is dropping back in trip, having looked a real stayer last time…
Ofcourse, he may well have the class to get away with it - and his jumping in his 2 chase starts so far, has been almost flawless.
However, he will face some strong opposition tomorrow - so there’s a fair chance that any chinks in his armour could be exposed.
Latest Exhibition has been installed a clear second favourite - but I’m not sure I see him as Monkfish’s main rival.
The 2 clashed last time at Leopardstown over Christmas, and Monkfish came out on top by 3 lengths.
Even if Latest Exhibition is better suited by the drop in trip (which is debatable), I would still expect the placings to be confirmed.
Andy Dufresne and Asterion Collognes strike me as potentially bigger dangers to Monkfish…
Both were high class over hurdles - and could be even better over fences.
Andy Dufresne is being stepped up in trip tomorrow, having run over 2 miles on his 2 previous chase starts.
That’s a move which could well elicit some improvement.
Asterion Collognes has fallen on his 2 most recent starts - and that’s a worry.
There is a chance that connections will simply want him to get round safely tomorrow - and it doesn’t help that he is also trained by Willie !
However, he has the basic ability to be top class, so if he does run on his merits - and his jumping holds up, then he could well give Monkfish a run for his money.
It’s hard to make much more than half cases for any of the other runners - and they are all probably best watched with a view to finding potential good class handicappers, for later in the season…
3:40
There’s a slightly disappointing turn out for the Irish Gold cup, with just 5 runners - however, all 5 are top class.
In fact 4 of them featured prominently, in the grade 1 Savills chase, run at the course over the Christmas period.
Kemboy finished second in that race, with Melon just behind in third.
Minella Indo was sent off a short priced favourite - but fell at the 8th fence; whilst Delta Work unseated, a fence later…
It’s not easy figuring out which one of the 4 will come out on top tomorrow - as a case can be made for each.
Delta Work won this race last season - getting the better of Kemboy.
It looked to me as if he was a little unlucky at Christmas, as he appeared to stumble on landing.
He was at least saved from having a hard race that day - and I would expect him to get the better of Kemboy, as was the case 12 months ago.
The issue with Melon, is undoubtedly the trip.
He appeared to almost stay it at Christmas, having been ridden quite aggressively.
I suspect he will be ridden with more restraint tomorrow - but it remains to be seen whether that will have the desired effect.
If it does, he is likely to go very close…
Minella Indos fall last time, was out of character - as his jumping in his previous chases had been almost flawless.
However, he is yet to prove himself in grade 1 open company and simply looks too short in the betting, at 7/4.
That’s not to say he can’t win - just that I won't be backing him at that price, particularly on the back of a fall !
The Storyteller can’t be completely dismissed - though it’s hard not to think that he had his big day, when taking the Champion chase at Down Royal, back in October.
4:10
Farclas caught my eye last time, when finishing third in the Paddy Power chase at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting.
He moved powerfully through the race - but appeared not to quite get home.
Dropping him back in trip looks to be a good move - and if he runs to the same level, he should be tough to beat.
In fairness, he also has back class, which suggests he may be even better than he showed that day.
He won the Triumph hurdle 3 years ago - and whilst his first season in open company was a disappointment, he showed plenty as a novice chaser, before injury intervened.
His last 2 run have suggested that his problems are now behind him - and if that is the case, then he sets a high standard.
Treacysenniscorthy was impressive when winning at Cork, early last month.
He ran up a sequence over hurdles last season, culminating in an all the way victory at this meeting.
He’s now on a rating 9lb higher than he was when he won his last hurdle race - but he does look like he could be even better over fences.
Trainwrecked looked like winning this race last year, until he was run down close home, by Glamorgan Duke
He’s not matched that form since, but has only run 3 times - and shaped will real promise last time, when a place behind Farclas in the Paddy Power.
He’s almost certainly been targeted at this race - and off a mark just 2lb higher than last year, must have every chance of at least hitting the frame.
At the Acorn was sent off favourite for this race last year - and ran well to finish sixth.
That was the last time he ran in a chase, so whilst he’s not shown much since, that’s probably irrelevant.
He gets to run off a mark 1lb lower tomorrow - and is still only 7 (so could well have improved).
He’s currently only a reserve for the race, so will need a couple to drop out, if he is to get a run.
However, if that does happen, then I would expect him to run a big race…
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