Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Leopardstown
2:45
Port Stanley 5 units win 10/1
The Shunter 2 units win 9/2
3:50
The Moyglass Flyer 5 units win 6/1
Saint D'Oroux 2 units win 14/1
He's a Hardy Bloke 2 units win 12/1
Advanced Virgo 1 unit win 9/1
Sandown
1:15
Billingsley 5 units win 14/1
Caribean Boy 2 units win 5/2
2:55
Doitforthevillage 2 units win 10/1
3:30
Coo Star Sivola 4 units win 13/2
Calypso Collonge 2 units win 14/1
A Toi Phil 2 units win 8/1
Musselburgh
2:05
Christopher Ward 5 units win 7/2
Best bets
Leopardstown
2:45
Port Stanley 0.5pt win 10/1
3:50
The Moyglass Flyer 0.5pt win 6/1
Sandown
1:15
Billingsley 0.5pt win 14/1
Musselburgh
2:05
Christopher Ward 0.5pt win 7/2
After weeks of scratching around, trying to find suitable
races to bet in, it seems a little ironic that I am today faced with an
overwhelming number of opportunities !
I would have been quite happy to just cover the excellent Leopardstown card - but it was joined by Sandown, Mussleburgh - and for a while at least, Wetherby…
The situation was compounded by the uncertainty over the weather.
I previewed Sandown and Wetherby, half expecting both to be abandoned (the latter was).
At least I’m pretty confident on the state of the ground at Sandown - and in truth, I’ll be surprised if both Leopardstown and Musselburgh aren’t riding ‘soft’.
It was still very hard for me to get my head round what I actually wanted to suggest as bets - and then monitor a plethora of markets.
I think I got the advised prices pretty close to reality - apologies, if any of them moved significantly between me typing and issuing.
Ultimately, I ended up with 4 Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.
Whether I honed in on the ‘right’ ones, only time will tell !
Fingers crossed !!
Leopardstown
The opening race (1:05), is one to watch with an eye to the future…
Gaillard du Mesnil could be top class - but his price is short enough; the fitting of a hood is a slight concern - and he faces a host of potentially dangerous rivals.
I did briefly consider suggesting Cape Gentleman - but it would have been a guess and there’s not much in the price.
Chacun Pour Soi will probably beat Min and Notebook in the 1:35.
That’s also what the betting says - so there is no obvious angle for tackling the race.
I don’t have a strong view on the 2:10.
Energumene is the right favourite - and even money is probably the right price.
A lot will depend on how the race unfolds, in terms of pace and tactics - but that’s not much use if you are looking to play pre-race !
Another race just to be watched…
I like Port Stanley in the 2:45 - and think he is worth a bet.
I was taken by his effort in defeat last time, when he showed good battling qualities.
He’s young and unexposed - but also has some very decent form. Whilst a handicap mark of 135 looks very fair…
Entoucas and Epson du Houx are dangers - but The Shunter is potentially the biggest danger of all.
Based on his win in the Greatwood hurdle, he is very well handicapped.
His jumping is a worry - but if things fall right for him, he is the most likely race winner.
As a consequence, it is worth saving stakes on him for the Matrix…
I’m against Honeysuckle in the 3:15 - and was very tempted to find a way to turn that into an official bet.
My original plan was to suggest Saldier - but reading Willie Mullins comments, I don’t think he’s got the horse quite where he wants him (the market suggests the same - though that might just be reflecting his comments !).
Sharjah is the obvious alternative - but there is minimal margin in a price of 5/2, up against 5 strong rivals.
If he drifts to 3/1+, I’ll get involved with him.
It strikes me that The Moyglass Flyer has been targeted at this race.
He has ticks in just about every box - and whilst his price is short enough, I still want him on side.
I can see half cases for a number of his rivals, so I think it is worth deploying the Matrix to cover stakes.
He’s a Hardy Bloke is an unexposed novice, who could have plenty in hand of his mark; Saint D’oroux represents top connections and is proven in this type of race; whilst Advanced Virgo looked to win a good race with plenty in hand, last time.
All 3 are worth covering on the Matrix - though the first choice is very much The Moyglass Flyer…
Sandown
I have a feeling that the opening race might not take too much winning…
There are question marks over all of the runners - and at a price, I think it is worth taking a risk on Billingsley.
He will handle the ground better than most - particularly with a light weight on his back.
His jumping is a concern - particularly round Sandown - but if he gets into a rhythm at the head of affairs, he could prove tough to pass.
Caribean Boy is the potential spoiler - as he may just be a very good horse.
He’ll also have no issue with the ground, so is worth saving stakes on…
The 1:50 is a race to watch.
It’s a fascinating contest - but an ability to cope with the ground, is likely to be the deciding factor.
I did briefly consider putting up Dame de Compagnie, as she is theoretically a good bet at around 6/1.
However, I have a feeling the test might prove to be a bit too much for her…
It’s a similar story with the 2:20.
I could literally have put up any of the 6 runners - and in that situation, it’s a race best swerved !
I’d be against Santini (at the prices) - but I don’t sufficiently fancy any of the others, to encourage me to make them a bet…
The 2:55 is yet another race where I can give plenty of the runners a chance.
Alnadim strikes me as the most likely winner - and 4/1 is probably a fair price.
However, Doitforthevillage is the best ‘value’ option, at a double figure price.
He’s worth a small bet for the Matrix.
Gardefort and Colorado Doc are 2 others at big prices, worthy of consideration - but officially speaking, I’ll just side with Doitforthevillage.
Ask me Early looks too short in the 3:30, at around 6/4.
That’s not to say he can’t win (he was my initial fancy for the race) - just that there are sufficient doubts to oppose him at that price.
Most of the other runners can be given a chance - but the one I like best is Coo Star Sivola.
He caught my eye last time and is now very well handicapped. At 6/1, he is a borderline Best bet (but not quite !).
A Toi Phil and Calipso Collonges were the other 2 who I felt worth covering for the Matrix - though the former is now a NR, due to lameness…
Musselburgh
I’m pretty keen on Christopher Wood in the 2:10 - just less keen on the price !
I think he has the beating of one of his main market rivals (Torigni); whilst the other main one (Ashington) doesn’t look sufficiently well handicapped (unless he has improved for a change of stable).
Half cases can be made for a few of the others - but they are only half cases.
I am hopeful that Christopher Wood will prove himself different class.
I can’t see an angle into the 3:45.
I suspect Le Breuil will either win by half for track - or not feature !
The Ferry Master is the obvious alternative - but also the second favourite.
Billy Bronce was possibility for the Matrix - but there are plenty of question marks over him, so I decided against…
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