With so much top class racing scheduled for the next couple of days, I feel I’ve little option other than to start previewing it early.
There simply won’t be sufficient time for me to preview all of the big races this evening - which is what I usually do…
To that end, I’ve produced a preview for Saturdays Leopardstown card: I’ll aim to cover the UK cards this evening - assuming nothing untoward crops up, in terms of inspections etc…
Leopardstown
My assumption is that the ground at Leopardstown will be soft.
It’s a fast draining course - so it’s likely to ride quicker than would reasonably be expected, considering the recent rain.
The card for the opening day, is as good as you’ll get - from the perspective of a racing enthusiast.
4 grade 1s: a couple of hyper competitive handicaps - and a top quality bumper.
Whether it will yield many bets however, remains to be seen !
1:05
The meeting opens up with it’s first grade 1 - and it’s an absolute cracker.
A novice hurdle over 2m6f, it’s likely to have a big bearing on both the Ballymore and the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival.
Trying to find the winner of the race however, will be a real challenge.
Gaillard du Mesnil heads the market, after his scintillating win at Leopardstown over Christmas.
He was well fancied that day, in a traditionally strong contest - and absolutely hacked up.
The form has been franked by the placed horses - and the time was apparently very good.
He’s going to be hard to beat - though the application of a first time hood, is an interesting move (he was very keen in the race).
Cape Gentleman didn’t beat much when he won on his hurdling debut at Punchestown - and the time wasn’t particularly fast either.
However, he was visually very impressive - and was a good winner of the Irish Cesarewitch in October, on only his second run in Ireland.
He’s clearly a very talented horse, who appears to be improving fast.
Like Gaillard du Mesnil, Stattle won a novice hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
His performance wasn’t quite as impressive as that of his stable-mate - but it still resulted in him being installed ante-post favourite for the Albert Bartlett.
This race should tell us whether his market position is justified.
Gentlemansgame was sent off a very short priced favourite on his hurdling debut at at Cork, early last month - and absolutely hacked up.
It’s impossible to gauge the worth of the form - but he is clearly held in high regard and couldn’t have won more easily.
Holymacapony was a good winner on his hurdling debut at Punchestown in November. He beat Gaillard du Mesnil that day - but I think he might struggle to confirm the form tomorrow.
Gaillard du Mesnil looked to run green that day - and suspect he showed big improvement when winning at Leopardstown.
That said, Holymacapony clearly can’t be easily dismissed - despite an inexplicably poor subsequent run at Navan in November.
That race was won by Ashdale Bob - but he fell on his next outing, when quite well fancied for the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas hurdle.
Again, he will need to bounce back from that, if he is to have a chance tomorrow - but that’s quite possible…
Few of the remaining runners can be completely ruled out, as they are mainly unexposed animals, who could be capable of putting in big runs.
That said, this is such a strong race - and the main protagonists have already shown themselves capable of high class form.
It will be a bit of a shock if the winner comes from outside the 6 mentioned above…
1:35
The second grade 1 on the card doesn’t look quite so competitive !
Chacun pour Soi is a very strong favourite - and it’ll be a big surprise if he is beaten.
He won the corresponding race 12 months ago - getting the better of stablemate, Min - and has subsequently confirmed himself to be the best 2 mile chaser in training.
The acid test for him, will come at in the Champion chase at Cheltenham in March - and whilst I think he may be vulnerable in that race, I suspect he will win this one.
As with 12 months ago, Min looks most likely to chase him home - though Notebook may well put up a fight for the runner-up spot.
He was second to Chacun at Leopardstown over Christmas - and is more of a 2 miler than Min (who is now better over 2m4f).
The other 3 runners shouldn’t really be good enough to feature.
Tornado Flyer has looked an improved performer this season - but over longer trips (his most recent run was over 3 miles).
Sizing Pottsie will have no issue with the trip - but appears to just be a decent handicapper (though an improving one).
Fakir Doudaries looked a very good horse last season (of a similar level to Notebook). However, he was sent over fences early and took advantage of various weight allowances. He no longer receives those allowances - and has struggled to maintain his form this season…
2:10
The grade 1 races just keep on rolling - and this one has also got a short priced favourite.
Energumene has won his 2 chases this season: over 2m4f at Gowran in November - and then over 2 miles at Naas, last month.
He was very impressive on both occasions - making all and barely putting a foot wrong.
As a result, he is now second favourite for the Arkle behind Shishkin - and a win in this race, will doubtless secure his ticket for Cheltenham.
He probably will win - but he faces some strong rivals - and may also not find it easy to dominate.
Felix Desjy is very head strong - and if Energumene is leading him early, then he will probably be going too fast !
It remains to be seen how Energumene will cope if he can’t lead - but it’s certainly something to bear in mind if your are considering taking a short price.
Whilst Felix Desjy is unlikely to last home, a few of the others are more than capable of taking advantage, if Energumene does run below form.
Unexcepted was an impressive winner at Tipperary in October - and whilst he’s not been seen since, I doubt that will be an issue.
He’s an unexposed horse - but his form over hurdles last season, showed that he is very useful.
Franco de Port beat Darver Star in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown over Christmas - and he may well turn out to be the biggest threat to Energumene.
He took advantage of an overly strong pace that day (set by Felix Desjy) - and there’s a chance that situation could repeat tomorrow.
Captain Guiness is the other one worthy of mention.
He was a very good hurdler last season - and was expected to make an even better chaser this season.
However, he was found the be clinically abnormal, when running disappointingly on his seasonal debut behind Unexcepted.
He bounced back with a win at Punchestown in December, before being put in his place by Energumene, at Naas last month.
In truth, there is no obvious reason why he should reverse that form - but if Energumene does run below form, he would have every chance of taking advantage.
2:45
The first of the 2 handicaps, will see 20 runners going to post for a 2 mile chase.
There are a number of relatively unexposed runners in the field - and I suspect one of them will come home in front…
Epson de Houx was a really impressive winner at Naas last month, on his handicap debut.
He had only run in 2 chases prior to that - and had fallen in one of those !
Despite that, he looked a natural over fences and came home unchallenged.
A 13lb rating rise looks a little harsh - but it’s very hard to judge how good he might be.
Pont Aven has run with credit in 3 strong handicaps already this season,
However, he’s not managed to win any of them - and is edging up the weights.
The application of a first time hood is a slightly surprising move, considering he has been held up the last twice.
If it does bring about improvement, then he should go close - though I’ll be slightly surprised if he is good enough to win.
He finished ahead of Entoucas on his most recent outing at Fairyhouse.
The latter is 3lb better off tomorrow - which gives him a chance of reversing the form.
He also has the greater scope for improvement - and is Marks Walsh's choice of the 4 JP McManus runners…
If The Shunter could be guaranteed to jump round efficiently, then he would almost certainly be the one to beat.
He was a comfortable winner of the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenham on his most recent outing - and will run off a mark just 4lb higher tomorrow.
However, he’s only run 4 times over fences previously - and his chase form doesn't match his hurdles form.
The market is likely to advise with him.
He was very well backed for the Greatwood - and was banned from running for 60 days after an ‘eye-catching’ effort at Tipperary in July !
His presence in the race, will make it a hard one to get involved with.
Aramax beat Port Stanley at Fairyhouse last month - but is not guaranteed to confirm the form on 7lb worse terms for just over 2 lengths.
I felt that Port Stanley ran better than the result suggested that day, as he got in to a battle for the lead - and then had to try and withstand the late challenge of the winner .
First time cheek pieces are an interesting move for him and he still looks open to improvement.
Ordinary World looks the most interesting of those at longer prices.
He’s a class horse and finished third in a grade 1 last Christmas.
He also has a fair record fresh, so the fact he will be making his seasonal debut, isn’t a big negative.
3:15
Honeysuckle puts her unbeaten record on the line in this, having won her previous 9 races under rules.
One of those wins was in this contest last year - but she only managed to scramble home that day, from Darver Star and Petit Mouchoir.
That’s fair form - but it’s not really top class.
The issue with Honeysuckle, is that she ideally wants further than 2 miles.
All bar 2 of her career wins have been over further - and up against a 2 miler from the top drawer, I suspect her winning run will come to an end.
Whether she will face such a horse tomorrow however, remains to be seen…
In fairness, Sharjah can be top class - it’s just a question of whether he will produce that level of form.
He did at Leopardstown over Christmas, when taking the grade 1 - and if he repeats that performance, he’s likely to win.
Very soft ground would be a worry for him - though it was quite soft at Christmas so assuming the ground is similar, he looks the one to beat.
Very soft ground would be a worry for Abracadabras,
He’s been a but disappointing this season - though apparently wasn’t right last time, when well behind Sharjah.
Saint Roi also finished well beaten in that race - and with no excuse forthcoming, he would be be quite hard to support.
Saldier is more interesting…
He too finished well behind Sharjah at Christmas - but that was his first run in over a year and he almost certainly needed it.
He has been very sparingly raced over the years - but when he has run, he has invariably put in a high class performance.
If he is on his ‘A’ game tomorrow, then he shouldn’t be under-estimated.
3:50
As is often the case, JP McManus holds a particularly strong hand in this race, owning 6 of the 22 runners.
His retained jockey, Mark Walsh, has chosen to ride The Moyglass Flyer - and it’s easy to understand why.
The horse won a competitive handicap at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting, last season, on only his third run over hurdles.
He then wasn’t seen until running in the same race, this Christmas.
Walsh opted not to ride him that day - and the horse was weak in the market.
However he still ran a really big race, to finish third.
He wasn’t given a hard time - and runs off the same mark tomorrow.
He very much looks the one to beat…
That said, dangers abound…
Advanced Virgo was an impressive winner of a similar handicap at Fairyhouse, in November.
He was weak in the betting that day (which is unusual for a Charles Byrnes trained winner) but was a fair bit too good for his rivals.
He’s been raised 10lb for his efforts - but that might not stop him.
A few of the horses he beat in that race re-oppose tomorrow - with Drop the Anchor probably the most noteworthy.
He finished third - but was badly impeded by a faller at the second last.
He will be meeting the winner on 8lb better terms - and there shouldn’t be much between the pair.
Eskylane and He’s a Hardy Bloke are both still novices, so it’s interesting that connections are running them in such a competitive race.
Both have plenty of scope for improvement - and He’s a Hardy Bloke in particular, looks one who should be kept on side.
Of those at bigger prices, Saint D’oroux and Golden Jewel look the most interesting.
The former finished third in the Boodles, at last seasons Cheltenham festival - and runs from a mark 1lb lower tomorrow.
He was a little disappointing in his first 3 runs this season - but showed far more promise on his most recent outing, when second at Thurles.
Golden Jewel finished second in this race 12 months ago - and was a little unlucky not to win.
He will be running off a mark 8lb higher tomorrow - and as a 9 year old, won’t have the scope for improvement of some of his rivals,.
However he looks to have been targeted at this race by connections - having run over fences last time, to protect his hurdles mark following a fine second at Down Royal, at the end of October.
Sandown
Assuming the meeting actually takes place, I can only imagine how the ground will be riding at Sandown…
The hurdle races were abandoned earlier in week (the ground is invariably worse on that course), leaving an all chase card.
However, there was significant rain yesterday, making it necessary for an inspection to take place earlier this afternoon.
The course was deemed fit for racing - however, more rain is expected over night, and I suspect it won’t take much for the meeting to be lost.
Suffice to say, finding the winners is going to be more about finding the horse that will cope with the conditions, than about finding the most talented/best handicapped horses…
1:15
Dolos has taken the past 2 runnings of this race, but I think he will have his work cut out to complete the hatrick.
In fairness, he’s not badly handicapped, off a mark just 1lb higher than last year (when he beat First Flow).
However, his best form isn’t on heavy ground - and having to carry 11st 12lb will be a massive ask.
Caribean Boy has only 4lb less to carry - but his best form is on heavy ground - and he has no shortage of stamina.
The question with him, is how well handicapped he is - and that’s a tough one to answer…
Moonlighter looks fairly handicapped, off a mark just 2lb higher than when second in the Haldon Gold cup, in early November.
That looked a really strong piece of form - but he fell next time at Newbury and then disappointed at Sandown at the start of January.
He now has a fair bit to prove…
Paddys Poem ran really well last time, when runner up to Ibleo over tomorrows course and distance. However, that was his first outing for over a year, so there has to be a slight worry that he might ’bounce’.
He also got raised 3lb for his efforts - which is made worse by the fact he will have to run from 5lb outside the handicap…
Billingsley is the final one of interest.
He was very progressive last season - and is effective in heavy ground.
Alas, he is yet to complete in 2 runs this season !
A fall at Doncaster in December, was followed by an unseat at Wetherby a month later.
Clearly his jumping is a concern - particularly round Sandown.
However, he will handle the conditions and has a very light weight.
He also likes to front run - and if he manages to get into a rhythm up front, he could prove hard to pass…
1:50
This really is a cracking edition of the Grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase - but virtually impossible to call with any confidence.
All 4 of the market leaders would be worthy winners - and it’s likely to come down to which one of them best handles the conditions…
Shan Blue and Hitman head the market - and it easy to make a case for both.
The former is dropping in distance having won the grade 1 Kauto star novice chase at Kempton over Christmas.
He won that race well - but seemed to be reaching the end of his stamina over the 3 mile trip, so is understandable that connections are opting to run him over half a mile less.
He’s an exceptional jumper of a fence (touch wood !) - so Sandown should really suit him.
However, it remains to be seen how well he will cope with very heavy ground.
By contrast, Hitman is stepping up in trip, having been found wanting for pace over 2 miles on his latest outing.
Under normal circumstances, I would have no issue with the move - but the ground is likely to put a real emphasis on stamina, and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to cope with that…
Messire des Obeaux is third in the betting - and whilst he will be ideally suited by the trip - I’m not sure he will relish the very heavy ground.
It’s in his favour that he is not being aimed at Cheltenham - so I suspect connections will be less concerned about him having a very hard race.
However, if he doesn’t handle the ground, that’s going to be immaterial !
I would expect Dame de Compagnie to handle the ground.
It as very heavy at Ayr, when she made her chasing debut and she coped well with conditions.
She will also be suited by the trip - whilst her sex allowance means she is officially the best horse in the race, at the adjusted weights.
The worry with her, is her inexperience (she made he chasing debut less than 3 weeks ago, in a 2 horse race !) - and whether connections will want her bottoming, prior to a likely run at the Cheltenham festival.
Neither Sporting John or Paint the Dream can be completely dismissed - though it would be a bit of a surprise if either proved quite good enough to win.
2:20
The Cotswold chase has been saved from last Saturdays abandoned Cheltenham meeting - but as with the Scilly Isles chase, it looks nearly impossible to unravel…
Bottomless under foot conditions won’t be an issue for either Bristol de Mai or Native River - though it’s possible the track might be !
In fairness, Bristol has previously won over the course - though that was 5 years ago !
There’s no reason to think he won’t handle it - even if it provides a very different test to his beloved Haydock !
Bizarrely, Native River has never previously run at Sandown.
Again, there is no particular reason for thinking he won’t handle it - though he is also better known for his exploits at galloping tracks…
Santini has won over tomorrows course and distance - and should also have no issue with the ground.
However, the form of the win was relatively poor - and I really can’t see him being unduly punished tomorrow, with the Gold cup very much his target for the season.
Saint Calvados is running in this race in order to establish what his target for the season will be…
Originally a 2 miler, he was stepped up with success, to 2m4f last season - and tried 3 miles for the first time, in this seasons King George.
He appeared not to stay that day - but equally, may have needed the run (it was his seasonal debut).
We’ll learn lots more about his stamina tomorrow - because 3 miles in the mud, is going to take some getting !
Yala Enki will have no issue with the trip - in fact, it might not be far enough for him !
He’s a thoroughly admirable stayer - and whilst he’s a little shy of Gold cup class, his ability to handle conditions will be a big plus.
It will also be in his favour that connections won’t be protecting him for another day - whilst the 6lb he receives from all of his rivals bar Saint Calvados, will help…
2:55
Alnadam has been installed the early favourite for this - and it’s hard to disagree…
He was really impressive when winning over the course and distance, early in December, in what was a strong contest.
He disappointed on his subsequent run at Kempton over Christmas - but didn’t seemed as well suited to that sharper track and quicker ground.
Back at Sandown on very soft ground, he is likely to take all the beating…
Benetar is being supported against him - and again, it’s easy enough to see why.
He is potentially very well handicapped - and ran a massive race on his seasonal reappearance in December, when third to Chatham Street Lad.
That’s top class handicap form - and showed he retains all of his ability.
His trainer, Gary Moore, always targets Sandown races - but having to carry 12st 1lb in heavy ground, is a huge ask…
Doitforthevillage was a good winner over course and distance, at the beginning of January.
He’d been out of form for a long time prior to that win and his handicap mark had plummeted as a result.
It’s a little surprising that he was only raised 2lb for the win - as that leaves him on a very competitive mark.
The issue with him, is his age - as he is now 12. However, he’s clearly in good form and will relish conditions.
It’s a similar story with Gardefort.
He bounced back to form at Ascot in December, having shown nothing for a very long time.
He didn’t quite manage to win that day - but it was a stronger race than the one won by Doitforthevillage.
However, he was very disappointing a couple of weeks later, when pulled up at Wincanton.
It will very much depend on which Gardefort turns up - but if its the one who ran so well at Ascot, then he will prove very hard to beat.
Colorado Doc is the final one worthy of mention.
I quite fancied him on his most recent run, in a decent contest at Ascot - but he fell at the very first fence.
That seemed a little bit out of character - and he can certainly be given a chance, based on his previous form.
It’s also interesting that his best run was on heavy ground, so he shouldn’t have an issue with the underfoot conditions.
3:30
Ask me Early has been installed a short priced favourite for this - arguably to short !
In fairness, he is a progressive novice, who has looked impressive in winning both of his chase starts this season - but as a consequence, his mark is rising and he faces his stiffest test to date, tomorrow.
He may be up to it - but there are enough question marks over him, to suggest a degree of caution…
Coo Star Sivola caught my eye last time, when staying on late behind Double Shuffle, at Kempton.
That was his third run back after a very long break - and seemed to suggest that plenty of his former ability remains.
At his peak, he won at the Cheltenham, festival off a mark of 142.
He runs tomorrow off a mark of 135 - so could be very well handicapped.
He’s still only 9 - whilst the Cheltenham win was achieved on heavy ground
Kiltealy Brig is interesting, as a novice making his handicap debut in open company.
He likes to make the running, so whilst in theory his jumping could be tested by more experienced opponents - if he is out of trouble at the head of affairs, that’s not going to happen !
His best form is also on heavy ground - so he should have no issue with conditions.
Deise Aba was a good winner of this race 12 months ago - and should have every chance of following up from a mark just 2lb higher.
He ran well at the Cheltenham festival - however, he has been pulled up on both of his runs this season.
As a consequence, he now has plenty to prove - but if the first time cheek pieces have the desired effect, then he has ticks in all of the boxes.
Cases can be made for all 4 of the other runners, meaning that this is another race which is particularly tricky to solve…
Assuming the meeting actually takes place, I can only imagine how the ground will be riding at Sandown…
The hurdle races were abandoned earlier in week (the ground is invariably worse on that course), leaving an all chase card.
However, there was significant rain yesterday, making it necessary for an inspection to take place earlier this afternoon.
The course was deemed fit for racing - however, more rain is expected over night, and I suspect it won’t take much for the meeting to be lost.
Suffice to say, finding the winners is going to be more about finding the horse that will cope with the conditions, than about finding the most talented/best handicapped horses…
1:15
Dolos has taken the past 2 runnings of this race, but I think he will have his work cut out to complete the hatrick.
In fairness, he’s not badly handicapped, off a mark just 1lb higher than last year (when he beat First Flow).
However, his best form isn’t on heavy ground - and having to carry 11st 12lb will be a massive ask.
Caribean Boy has only 4lb less to carry - but his best form is on heavy ground - and he has no shortage of stamina.
The question with him, is how well handicapped he is - and that’s a tough one to answer…
Moonlighter looks fairly handicapped, off a mark just 2lb higher than when second in the Haldon Gold cup, in early November.
That looked a really strong piece of form - but he fell next time at Newbury and then disappointed at Sandown at the start of January.
He now has a fair bit to prove…
Paddys Poem ran really well last time, when runner up to Ibleo over tomorrows course and distance. However, that was his first outing for over a year, so there has to be a slight worry that he might ’bounce’.
He also got raised 3lb for his efforts - which is made worse by the fact he will have to run from 5lb outside the handicap…
Billingsley is the final one of interest.
He was very progressive last season - and is effective in heavy ground.
Alas, he is yet to complete in 2 runs this season !
A fall at Doncaster in December, was followed by an unseat at Wetherby a month later.
Clearly his jumping is a concern - particularly round Sandown.
However, he will handle the conditions and has a very light weight.
He also likes to front run - and if he manages to get into a rhythm up front, he could prove hard to pass…
1:50
This really is a cracking edition of the Grade 1 Scilly Isles novice chase - but virtually impossible to call with any confidence.
All 4 of the market leaders would be worthy winners - and it’s likely to come down to which one of them best handles the conditions…
Shan Blue and Hitman head the market - and it easy to make a case for both.
The former is dropping in distance having won the grade 1 Kauto star novice chase at Kempton over Christmas.
He won that race well - but seemed to be reaching the end of his stamina over the 3 mile trip, so is understandable that connections are opting to run him over half a mile less.
He’s an exceptional jumper of a fence (touch wood !) - so Sandown should really suit him.
However, it remains to be seen how well he will cope with very heavy ground.
By contrast, Hitman is stepping up in trip, having been found wanting for pace over 2 miles on his latest outing.
Under normal circumstances, I would have no issue with the move - but the ground is likely to put a real emphasis on stamina, and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to cope with that…
Messire des Obeaux is third in the betting - and whilst he will be ideally suited by the trip - I’m not sure he will relish the very heavy ground.
It’s in his favour that he is not being aimed at Cheltenham - so I suspect connections will be less concerned about him having a very hard race.
However, if he doesn’t handle the ground, that’s going to be immaterial !
I would expect Dame de Compagnie to handle the ground.
It as very heavy at Ayr, when she made her chasing debut and she coped well with conditions.
She will also be suited by the trip - whilst her sex allowance means she is officially the best horse in the race, at the adjusted weights.
The worry with her, is her inexperience (she made he chasing debut less than 3 weeks ago, in a 2 horse race !) - and whether connections will want her bottoming, prior to a likely run at the Cheltenham festival.
Neither Sporting John or Paint the Dream can be completely dismissed - though it would be a bit of a surprise if either proved quite good enough to win.
2:20
The Cotswold chase has been saved from last Saturdays abandoned Cheltenham meeting - but as with the Scilly Isles chase, it looks nearly impossible to unravel…
Bottomless under foot conditions won’t be an issue for either Bristol de Mai or Native River - though it’s possible the track might be !
In fairness, Bristol has previously won over the course - though that was 5 years ago !
There’s no reason to think he won’t handle it - even if it provides a very different test to his beloved Haydock !
Bizarrely, Native River has never previously run at Sandown.
Again, there is no particular reason for thinking he won’t handle it - though he is also better known for his exploits at galloping tracks…
Santini has won over tomorrows course and distance - and should also have no issue with the ground.
However, the form of the win was relatively poor - and I really can’t see him being unduly punished tomorrow, with the Gold cup very much his target for the season.
Saint Calvados is running in this race in order to establish what his target for the season will be…
Originally a 2 miler, he was stepped up with success, to 2m4f last season - and tried 3 miles for the first time, in this seasons King George.
He appeared not to stay that day - but equally, may have needed the run (it was his seasonal debut).
We’ll learn lots more about his stamina tomorrow - because 3 miles in the mud, is going to take some getting !
Yala Enki will have no issue with the trip - in fact, it might not be far enough for him !
He’s a thoroughly admirable stayer - and whilst he’s a little shy of Gold cup class, his ability to handle conditions will be a big plus.
It will also be in his favour that connections won’t be protecting him for another day - whilst the 6lb he receives from all of his rivals bar Saint Calvados, will help…
2:55
Alnadam has been installed the early favourite for this - and it’s hard to disagree…
He was really impressive when winning over the course and distance, early in December, in what was a strong contest.
He disappointed on his subsequent run at Kempton over Christmas - but didn’t seemed as well suited to that sharper track and quicker ground.
Back at Sandown on very soft ground, he is likely to take all the beating…
Benetar is being supported against him - and again, it’s easy enough to see why.
He is potentially very well handicapped - and ran a massive race on his seasonal reappearance in December, when third to Chatham Street Lad.
That’s top class handicap form - and showed he retains all of his ability.
His trainer, Gary Moore, always targets Sandown races - but having to carry 12st 1lb in heavy ground, is a huge ask…
Doitforthevillage was a good winner over course and distance, at the beginning of January.
He’d been out of form for a long time prior to that win and his handicap mark had plummeted as a result.
It’s a little surprising that he was only raised 2lb for the win - as that leaves him on a very competitive mark.
The issue with him, is his age - as he is now 12. However, he’s clearly in good form and will relish conditions.
It’s a similar story with Gardefort.
He bounced back to form at Ascot in December, having shown nothing for a very long time.
He didn’t quite manage to win that day - but it was a stronger race than the one won by Doitforthevillage.
However, he was very disappointing a couple of weeks later, when pulled up at Wincanton.
It will very much depend on which Gardefort turns up - but if its the one who ran so well at Ascot, then he will prove very hard to beat.
Colorado Doc is the final one worthy of mention.
I quite fancied him on his most recent run, in a decent contest at Ascot - but he fell at the very first fence.
That seemed a little bit out of character - and he can certainly be given a chance, based on his previous form.
It’s also interesting that his best run was on heavy ground, so he shouldn’t have an issue with the underfoot conditions.
3:30
Ask me Early has been installed a short priced favourite for this - arguably to short !
In fairness, he is a progressive novice, who has looked impressive in winning both of his chase starts this season - but as a consequence, his mark is rising and he faces his stiffest test to date, tomorrow.
He may be up to it - but there are enough question marks over him, to suggest a degree of caution…
Coo Star Sivola caught my eye last time, when staying on late behind Double Shuffle, at Kempton.
That was his third run back after a very long break - and seemed to suggest that plenty of his former ability remains.
At his peak, he won at the Cheltenham, festival off a mark of 142.
He runs tomorrow off a mark of 135 - so could be very well handicapped.
He’s still only 9 - whilst the Cheltenham win was achieved on heavy ground
Kiltealy Brig is interesting, as a novice making his handicap debut in open company.
He likes to make the running, so whilst in theory his jumping could be tested by more experienced opponents - if he is out of trouble at the head of affairs, that’s not going to happen !
His best form is also on heavy ground - so he should have no issue with conditions.
Deise Aba was a good winner of this race 12 months ago - and should have every chance of following up from a mark just 2lb higher.
He ran well at the Cheltenham festival - however, he has been pulled up on both of his runs this season.
As a consequence, he now has plenty to prove - but if the first time cheek pieces have the desired effect, then he has ticks in all of the boxes.
Cases can be made for all 4 of the other runners, meaning that this is another race which is particularly tricky to solve…
Musselburgh
There don’t appear to be any issues weather-wise, for Musselburgh on Saturday - though Sunday may be a different matter !
The ground is described as ‘soft’ - but I would expect it to ride slightly better than that…
2:05
Christopher Ward bounced back to form last time, when second in a decent handicap at Kempton, over the Christmas period.
That was a notable improvement on the form he had shown in his first 2 races this season and suggested he is back to his best.
He won over tomorrows course and distance, in February - and whilst he will be running tomorrow off a mark 8lb higher, Angus Cheledas 7lb claim offsets most of that rise.
With conditions seemingly ideal, he is likely to take a bit of beating…
Torigni finished just behind Christopher Ward at Kempton and as he’s a pound better off tomorrow, in theory there should be little between the pair.
However, that ignores Cheledas claim: whilst the form of Harry Whittingtons stable (his last 60 runners have all lost) has to detract from the chance of Torigni.
Ashington is the other one of major interest.
He was second to Sebastapol in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and runs off a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow.
He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in October - before disappointing badly last time at Doncaster.
The booking of Oakley Brown catches the eye (particularly with the Dublin Racing festival taking place in his native Ireland) - though Kevin Brogan was booked at Doncaster, which was equally eye catching !
Newtown Boy, Blakeney Point and Voix de Reve can each be given a chance: however they are all pretty exposed, and the handicapper should therefore have a good handle on them.
3:45
This really does look like the last chance saloon for Le Breuil…
The horse is being targeted at the Grand National - but his current handicap rating of 140, means he’s little hope of getting in the race.
He needs to win tomorrow - and win well - to get a rating rise which gives him a chance of making the cut.
The National weights are announced next week, so after an unsuccessful run at Warwick 3 weeks ago, this really is his last chance.
In theory, it’s a good chance.
Tomorrows race is much weaker than the races he tends to contest.
Whilst he will also be suited by returning to 4 miles, for the first time since his win at the Cheltenham festival, 2 seasons back.
On the flip side, he is tending to get outpaced in his races (even over extreme distances) - and it could simply be the case, that he’s not quick enough, regardless of trip…
The Ferry Master is a very different beast.
He is still a novice and tomorrows race will only be his third over fences.
He’s shown improvement on each outing - and his win at Newcastle last time, suggested he will have no issues with tomorrows trip.
Dino Bay is little more experienced - though he has only 5 previous chase runs to his name.
On the most recent of those, he was a very game winner of the borders National.
That race showed he is well suited by marathon trips - and it’s quite likely he has been targeted at tomorrows contest.
Billy Bronco looks quite attractively handicapped, on his second run for Dr Newland.
Formerly trained by Evan Williams, he showed little on his first run for Dr Newland at Warwick in November - but did much better next time at Hereford, when finishing second.
He’ll need to improve again if he is to feature tomorrow - but he would hardly be the first horse that the good doctor has worked the oracle on !
There don’t appear to be any issues weather-wise, for Musselburgh on Saturday - though Sunday may be a different matter !
The ground is described as ‘soft’ - but I would expect it to ride slightly better than that…
2:05
Christopher Ward bounced back to form last time, when second in a decent handicap at Kempton, over the Christmas period.
That was a notable improvement on the form he had shown in his first 2 races this season and suggested he is back to his best.
He won over tomorrows course and distance, in February - and whilst he will be running tomorrow off a mark 8lb higher, Angus Cheledas 7lb claim offsets most of that rise.
With conditions seemingly ideal, he is likely to take a bit of beating…
Torigni finished just behind Christopher Ward at Kempton and as he’s a pound better off tomorrow, in theory there should be little between the pair.
However, that ignores Cheledas claim: whilst the form of Harry Whittingtons stable (his last 60 runners have all lost) has to detract from the chance of Torigni.
Ashington is the other one of major interest.
He was second to Sebastapol in the corresponding race 12 months ago - and runs off a mark just 3lb higher tomorrow.
He ran really well on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in October - before disappointing badly last time at Doncaster.
The booking of Oakley Brown catches the eye (particularly with the Dublin Racing festival taking place in his native Ireland) - though Kevin Brogan was booked at Doncaster, which was equally eye catching !
Newtown Boy, Blakeney Point and Voix de Reve can each be given a chance: however they are all pretty exposed, and the handicapper should therefore have a good handle on them.
3:45
This really does look like the last chance saloon for Le Breuil…
The horse is being targeted at the Grand National - but his current handicap rating of 140, means he’s little hope of getting in the race.
He needs to win tomorrow - and win well - to get a rating rise which gives him a chance of making the cut.
The National weights are announced next week, so after an unsuccessful run at Warwick 3 weeks ago, this really is his last chance.
In theory, it’s a good chance.
Tomorrows race is much weaker than the races he tends to contest.
Whilst he will also be suited by returning to 4 miles, for the first time since his win at the Cheltenham festival, 2 seasons back.
On the flip side, he is tending to get outpaced in his races (even over extreme distances) - and it could simply be the case, that he’s not quick enough, regardless of trip…
The Ferry Master is a very different beast.
He is still a novice and tomorrows race will only be his third over fences.
He’s shown improvement on each outing - and his win at Newcastle last time, suggested he will have no issues with tomorrows trip.
Dino Bay is little more experienced - though he has only 5 previous chase runs to his name.
On the most recent of those, he was a very game winner of the borders National.
That race showed he is well suited by marathon trips - and it’s quite likely he has been targeted at tomorrows contest.
Billy Bronco looks quite attractively handicapped, on his second run for Dr Newland.
Formerly trained by Evan Williams, he showed little on his first run for Dr Newland at Warwick in November - but did much better next time at Hereford, when finishing second.
He’ll need to improve again if he is to feature tomorrow - but he would hardly be the first horse that the good doctor has worked the oracle on !
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