Saturday 30 January 2021

Jan 30th - Bets/Staking rationale

 Todays Suggested bets


Matrix bets

Doncaster

2:40
Fern Hill 3 units win 10/1

3:15
Yorkhill 5 units win 22/1
Boldmere 2 units win 10/1


Best bets

Doncaster

3:15
Yorkhill 0.5pt win 22/1


What a frustrating day !

Firstly, the weather robbed us of the Cheltenham trials meeting - leaving just a couple of races of interest, at Doncaster.
With one of those looking a minefield, I focused on the Sky bet chase - and thought I’d found a decent bet in the race, in the shape of Yorkhill.
However, he knocked a joint this morning and was declared a NR moments after I’d issued the suggested bets !

As a result, there are no Best bets on the day - and just a couple of small ones for the Matrix.

Here’s the rationale…


Doncaster

Clearly, Shishkin should win the 1:30.
It appears to be simply a case of him jumping round and handling the ground.
If he fails on either score, then Cheddleton should be the one to take advantage.
He can be backed at 14 on the exchanges, which is probably a fair enough price…

If Miranda had been 7/2 this morning, I would have been tempted to put her up in the 2:05.
That said, I was kind of glad she wasn’t as I wouldn’t have felt comfortable doing so !
My head says she has a good chance - backed up by the figures.
However, I have concerns about her ability to handle the ground/track.
I’ve also got concerns about the 2 other markets leaders - but can’t really take to any of the outsiders.
On balance, it has to be a watching race…

The 2:40 looks very open.
The winner is likely to produce a personal best - but all of the runners have the potential to do just that.
I think Fern Hill is the one with the greatest scope - and at 10/1, he’s worth a small play on the Matrix.
That said, I’ll be looking to cover a few of the other runners during the day, if/when their price drifts…
Pats Fancy and Ashtown Lad are of particular interest - if I can get a decent price (I’m targeting 9 on the former and 10.5 on the latter)

The Sky bet chase (3:15) has already been a very frustrating race !
I missed the early price on Musical Slave; and whilst I got it on Yorkhill, he was subsequently taken out of the race.
I may well have switched allegiance to Boldmere - but his price also crashed this morning (though I did manage to suggest him for the Matrix before it went completely).
I would be interested in Musical Slave at 6/1+ (and that might happen); whilst Cap du Nord, Canelo and One for the Team, could also become interesting, if their prices drift sufficiently.
I’ll look at the race again later, on the Live thread…

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