The weather has played havoc with the racing fixtures since Christmas - and unfortunately it shows little sign of relenting…
Once again, the majority of the turf fixtures scheduled for this week have been abandoned - and a significant blow was struck earlier today, when Cheltenham’s trials day joined the list.
Like the New Years day fixture, it has been lost to rain and as a result, no racing will be taking place at Cheltenham between mid December and mid March.
That’s quite something, for the home of NH…
As a consequence, we are left with just the one meeting of interest tomorrow - at Doncaster.
They raced at the course this afternoon, and my feeling was that the ground was riding ‘soft’. With no significant rain forecast, I would expect it to be the same tomorrow afternoon…
In terms of the action on offer, then it’s not Cheltenham !
The Sky bet chase has drawn a decent field - as has the River Don novice hurdle - but they are only those 2 races, with the right shape and of the right standard, for me to consider suggesting bets.
Suffice to say, it will be another relatively quiet day…
Doncaster
1:30
It’s a real coup for Doncaster, that Shishkin will be having his final outing before the Cheltenham festival, at the track.
He will have been sent there in the expectation of getting decent ground - but connections may end up a little disappointed !
That said, everything is relative - and soft ground at Doncaster is probably as quick as you are going to get anywhere, at the moment.
He either runs there - or goes to Cheltenham with no run…
I’d expect his class to see him through - though he does face at least a couple of decent opponents.
Cheddleton really impressed me, when beating Cornerstone Lad at Haydock, last month.
That race was run in desperate conditions - so the softer the ground, the better, for him…
On official ratings, he is 13lb inferior to Shishkin - but he receives 5lb from him tomorrow.
That shouldn’t be enough for him to beat the favourite - but I could certainly see him giving Shishkin a race.
If Colin Tizzards stable were in any kind of form, I could also see Eldorado Allen running well.
He certainly ran well at Cheltenham in November, when taking advantage of Gumballs fall.
However, he then disappointed at Sandown in December.
Based on that run, he has little chance - and the Tizzard stable remains in the doldrums.
It’s hard to make much of a case for Fast Buck; whilst Est Illic should be outclassed…
In short, Shishkin is highly likely to win - provided his jumping holds up and he handles the ground.
If the ground proves too much for him, then Cheddleton is by far the most likely to take advantage.
2:05
There are only 6 declared runners for this - but things are pretty tight at the head of the betting, between 3 of them…
Floressa and Maries Rock clashed at Newbury in November.
Both were making their seasonal debuts and Maries Rock was made a short priced favourite to win.
However, it was Floressa who came home in front, with Maries Rock unplaced.
Maries Rock will be 2lb better off tomorrow - but I can’t see that making a lot of difference.
What might make a difference, is much softer ground - and the application of a hood and tongue tie to Maries Rock.
The hood in particular, looks a shrewd addition for a horse who tends to race freely.
Both horses are trained by NIcky Henderson and it looks significant that said stable jockey Nico de Boinville, has switched from Maries Rock to Floressa.
However, on ratings, neither one should beat the Paul Nichols trained Miranda.
She has the same official mark as Floressa - but will receive 4lb. Whilst she will receive 2lb from Maries Rock, despite being rated 2lb superior.
The worry with Miranda is soft ground. She has previously won on it - but has tended to run better on a quicker surface…
Irish Roe looks the best of the 3 outsiders - though she’s another who would prefer quicker ground…
It was quicker when she ran in this race 12 months ago - and split Lady Buttons and Floressa.
She subsequently tested positive for a banned substance and was disqualified - however based on that run, she is quite capable of being in the mix.
2:40
Conditions races don’t tend to be much more open than this one !
There are 13 runners - and they can each be given a chance.
On official ratings, they are very closely matched - and they all have plenty of scope for improvement.
It really is a very hard to even narrow down the field to a short list…
That said, the key piece of form appears to be the novice hurdle run at the December Cheltenham meeting.
Ashtown Lad was sent off a 6/4 fav for that race - but was ran disappointingly and only managed to finished fifth.
Ask a Honey Bee, did a fair bit better, and managed to finish third: but Pats Fancy did best of all, finishing runner up - and that was despite being completely unfancied in the betting.
It’s hard to be adamant about which one of the 3 will come out on top tomorrow, as there wasn’t much between Pats Fancy and Ask a Honey Bee, whilst Ashtown Lad clearly ran below form…
To add to the puzzle, Ask a Honey Bee finished runner up to Bobhopeorohope at Exeter in November - and it’s not easy to figure out which of them is the better horse…
Aska Honey Bee is 6lb better off tomorrow for a 2 length beating - but Bobhopeornohope seemed to win with a bit in hand…
Emir Sacree has no connection to that form line, having unexpectedly taken an Ascot handicap, on his UK debut.
It’s very hard form to assess in the context of this race - but it’s fair to assume that he will have improved for the experience…
All of the others can be given at least half a chance, with Exploiteur, Fern Hill and The Cob looking the most interesting.
3:15
This is the main race on the card - and I did consider getting involved with it for the ante-post thread on the forum.
The horse I considered putting up was Musical Slave - and he was a 14/1 shot on Monday.
However, I was concerned that he might not run (as he is owned by JP McManus, who also owns Canelo - and that one was the second favourite).
Roll on a few days, and Musical Slave is now 4/1 - and has over-taken Canelo in the betting !
Suffice to say, I think that ship has sailed…
In fairness, I do still think that Musical Slave has a good chance - but I think he is now too short in the betting.
I also think that Cap du Nord is too short in the betting.
He will be running off a mark 16lb higher than when he won for us at Newbury in November - and whilst that increase is justified, he is already quite exposed.
He is particularly popular in the betting because the form of his last run has been boosted twice, by victories for both the race winner: Royal Pagaile - and the third placed Double Shuffle.
That said, my issue with Cap du Nord, more concerns the ground and the trip, than it does his handicap mark…
Canelo finished second to Cap du Nord at Newbury and must have a fair chance of reversing the form on 6lb better terms.
His subsequent win at Wetherby showed by can cope with 3 miles in soft ground and his credentials look very solid.
That said, a mark of 148 does look quite high…
The novice, One for the Team, could easily be better than his current mark of 140.
I would expect him to be well suited by the track and trip - and his jumping appears sound. However, soft ground would be a worry for him…
Of the outsiders, then Boldmere looks quite interesting, back at the scene of his win last December.
He would have followed that up by winning a grade 2 race at Wetherby - but he fell at the last, when clear.
3 subsequent disappointing runs, have seen him fall out of favour - but he’s still a relatively young horse and his mark has been dropped a few pounds.
Yorkhill isn’t a young horse - but he used to be a very talented one.
In his younger days, he won 3 grade 1s - including 2 at the Cheltenham festival.
Last season, he appeared to have gone at the game, but a switch to Sandy Thompson, seems to have rekindled the fire.
He was a gutsy winner of the Rehearsal chase at Newcastle last time - and a 5lb rating rise means that’s he’s now rated 147. However, at his peak he was rated 164 - so he could still have plenty in hand of his mark…
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