Feb 21st - Preview for Newbury, Market Rasen & Navan

The ground at Newbury tomorrow, is described as ‘Good to soft, soft in places’.

I have to admit that I was a little sceptical about that - until I watched this afternoons racing, when the ground at both Haydock and Ascot, looked far better than I expected.

There is a little rain forecast before start of racing at Newbury tomorrow - but temperatures are up at 13 degrees, so I am now expecting ground on the soft side of good (as per the forecast).

Time will tell whether I’m right..!

In addition to Newbury, there is also racing at Market Rasen - where the ground is also also described as being on the soft side of good.
It shouldn’t matter too much there however, as there are only 2 televised races and I’ve not got a strong view on either.

Navan is the third potential venue of interest - assuming the meeting survives.
There has been a lot of rain in Ireland this week - and all of the scheduled meetings thus far, have been lost.
It remains to be seen whether Navan goes the same way - suffice to say, if they do race, it will be on heavy ground…

My focus for the preview will be very much on Newbury…


Newbury

1:50

There’s likely to be at least a couple of non runners in this, as both Mint Condition and Everglow ran this afternoon - but even with them out, it will still be a big field and a competitive contest.

As is invariably the case with decent handicaps nowadays, the young unexposed horses, are all at the head of the market.
The theory is, that they’ve not yet shown their hand to the handicapper - and if the prize is big enough, they will probably be prepared to do so !

Es Perfecto looks the most interesting of those…
He finished second to Bravemansgame on his last start, at Newbury back in November.
The winner went on to take the Grade 1 Challow hurdle and is now disputing favouritism for the Ballymore hurdle at the Cheltenham festival.
Es Perfecto was well beaten by him that day - and a near 3 month absence is a concern.
However, his opening mark of 133 looks very workable - even if there's a danger that this race is primarily a prep race for Cheltenham…
Southfield Harvest and Sizeable Sam will both be having their second runs in handicaps - so aren’t quite as unexposed at Es Perfecto.
Southfield Harvest finished a close second in a Pertemps qualifier on his handicap debut at Wincanton over Christmas and although he was raised 5lb for that, it is still likely that he is well handicapped on a mark of 135.
Sizeable Sam won on his handicap debut. That was also at Wincanton - though not in quite such a strong race.
His mark was subsequently raised to 131 - which was fair.
He’ll need to improve again if he is to take this better contest - but it’s quite possible that he will do just that.
Dhowin and Silent Assistant are 2 other novices who could easily improve sufficiently to be involved in the finish.
Both have already shown fair form in reasonable handicaps - so any further improvement, is likely to see them right in the mix.
Palmers Hill is the final one of interest.
He’s returning to hurdles having disappointed on his chasing debut at Taunton in December.
He’s a very lightly raced horse, who has only run 3 times in as many years.
However, he’s shown plenty of talent - and may well be better than his current handicap mark of 137.

2:25

As with the previous race, there is likely to be a NR in this, as Dashel Drasher ran (and won !) this afternoon at Ascot.
As a consequence, a maximum of 7 will go to post, which will obviously have a bearing if you are an EW player…

Clan Des Obeaux and Lostintranslation are the 2 proven class acts in the field - and even though they have to concede weight to all of their rivals, it’s not overly surprising that they head the market.
If you could be sure that they were are the top of their game, then they would be tough to oppose - but both arrive with question marks hanging over them.
The biggest doubts are over Lostintranslation.
He finished third in last seasons Gold Cup - but has been a massive disappointment in his 2 runs this season.
The ground was a reasonable excuse for his poor performance first time out at Haydock - but that was the case when he cut out next time, in the King George.
It’s maybe not surprising to see that’s he’s subsequently undergone wind surgery.
If that’s had the desired effect, he will be tough to beat - but it’s quite a big ‘If’…
Clan des Obeaux has run in the same 2 races - and performed much better than Lostintranslation in both.
He was a very creditable runner up to Bristol de Mai at Haydock - but then slightly disappointing when only third in the King George.
In fairness, it wasn’t a bad run - but in a race where he had previous looked brilliant, this time he didn’t…
Maybe the 2 month break will have freshened him up: and even if he repeats that from, he will go close.
However, based on both of this seasons runs, he looks beatable…
Kalashnikov is the most interesting of the others, on his first try at 3 miles.
I made him a Best bet last time at Cheltenham, when Master Fisher just got the better of him.
There was little shame in that - even if it wasn’t absolutely top class form.
On official ratings Kalshnikov is 10lb inferior to the big 2 - but he receives 6lb from them tomorrow - arrives a the top of his game- and may improve for a step up in trip.
Secret Investor has a definite chance based on official ratings.
He’s rated 3lb superior to Kalshnikov - and at the adjusted weights comes out only a pound inferior to Clan des Obeaux and Lostintranslation.
He finished second to Native River in this race last season - and a repeat of that form should again see him go close.
He may even be able to exceed it - and if he does, then he is likely to be right in mix.

3:00

The state of the ground could have a big bearing on the result of this race…

Sceau Royal is officially the best horse in the race - and yet he receives 6lb from favourite Greaneteen. However, he needs good ground to be seen at his best…
He got it last year, when he put up a career best performance to finish second to Altior - and he may be capable of going one better if he gets it again tomorrow.
Ofcourse that assumes he’s not being primed for a run at Cheltenham - but realistically, Alan King must know that he has little chance of beating Chacun Pour Soi at the festival, so I would expect him to be at his peak.
If he is, then he’s the one to beat - though there are likely to be plenty snapping at his coat tails !
Greaneteen should be one of them - following his second to Politologue in the Tingle Creek.
That was a good effort - and showed him to be an improving performer.
In addition to Greaneteen, Paul Nichols also runs Dolos and Magic Saint.
In truth, both are handicappers - but they are high class ones, and there’s not a great deal between a high class handicapper and a graded performer.
Neither can be completely dismissed.
Fanion Destruval is a young horse in the process of making the move from handicaps into graded company.
He ran a fair race last time, when fourth to first Flow at Ascot - and that form definitely gives him a chance.
However, he would probably prefer softer ground than he is likely to get…
Champ is the potential fly in the ointment.
He’s running in this race as a rather unconventional prep for the Gold cup (over a mile+ further !).
He’s not run over 2 miles since his bumper days - and the assumption is that he won’t be fully tuned.
He really should be layed - but at what price ?!
In terms of ability, he is a match for anything in the race - so if he happened to take to the trip and wasn’t as in need of the run as expected, then he could very well win !
Fascinating !!

3:35

It’s hard to know where to start building a short list for this particular race !

There are 24 declarations, and I suspect you could give a chance - or at least half a chance - to around 20 of them…

Soaring Glory strikes me as just about the most likely winner.
He’s still a novice - but a pretty good one as he showed when defeating Bravemansgame at Chepstow in October.
The runner up has probably improved since then - but an opening handicap mark of 133 for Soaring Glory still looks very generous.
If he’s not caught out by his inexperience, he is likely to go very close…
Milkwood is the next one I’ll have on side.
He was incredibly unlucky not to win last time, when badly hampered at the penultimate flight in the Gerry Fielden.
He’s not run since then - but that’s because he needs decent ground.
If he gets it tomorrow, he could be capable of gaining compensation for that defeat.
On to Victory is best known as a flat horse.
He won the November handicap at Doncaster off a mark of 99.
That suggests he should be a 140+ horse over hurdles - but he’s rated 129…
Like Soaring Glory, inexperience, is a worry - but he won last time and if his jumping holds up, he should go well.
Galice Macala was a disappointment last time - but prior to that, had run well behind behind Benson.
I really rate the winner: whilst Master Coffey was third in that race - and he is just 10/1 for this contest. By contrast, Galice Macala is 33/1 - and whilst he is 7lb worse off with Master Coffey, he did finish seven lengths ahead of him.
The book says that there shouldn’t be much between the pair - even if that’s not what the market says !
Ballinkser is an even bigger price - but he is weighted to run close to Milkwood.
He also ran well on his most recent hurdles race, when fifth in the Greatwood.
He ran a shocker last time, in an AW ‘jumpers bumper’ - but I assume that was just to get his some fitness…
Robbie Power is certainly an interesting jockey booking and at the price, he has to be worth having on side.
Plenty of others can also be given a chance…
The favourite Cadzand being an obvious place to start - for the red hot Skelton team.
That said, I’m not sure I’d be prepared to back anything at 6/1, in this particular contest !
Edwardstone is another - trained by On to Victorys trainer, Alan King; as is Fifty Ball.
He is trained by Gary Moore - who he has a tremendous record in this race.
Guard your Dreams is probably the first reserve for my short list - following his game win last time, at Sandown: whilst Mack the Man was sent off nearly fav for the race 12 months ago - and runs off a mark just 2lb higher tomorrow.
Shakem Up’Arry has a good chance based on his last run; whilst nothing is likely to head For Pleasure, early in the race.
If you want a pre-race back to lay IR, he is probably your boy !

Market Rasen

2:05

This race has been re-scheduled from the Huntingdon meeting, which was abandoned last Thursday.

There are 5 runners - though only 4 of them have any chance of winning.

Whilst experience is limited, the main 4 have all run sufficient times to get a fair handle on their ability.

Minella Charmer has the highest official rating - and looks the most likely winner.
However, he has been installed the even money favourite.
Stoner's Choice has the next highest rating - and looks the biggest danger to the favourite.
However, he is the second favourite.
Here Comes Johnny has the third highest rating - and Optimise Prime the lowest rating.
They are third and fourth favourite, respectively.
In short, the betting accurately represents what’s likely to happen in the race.

Optimise Prime possibly has a little more potential than his rivals - and that may enable him to improve on his likely fourth placing - but it’s doubtful he has sufficient scope to come home in front.

In short, the betting accurately reflects the probable result, so it’s not a race I’d be inclined to get involved with…

 
3:15

The other televised race from Market Rasen, looks a bit trappier.

Ajero and Gipsy de Choisel head the market - and as unexposed novices from big yards, it’s easy to understand why.
Both will be making their handicap debuts and have plenty of scope for improvement so it’s quite likely that one of them will come home in front.
That said, the market is obviously wise to them - and there is no value in their current prices (and I’m not sure I’d want to get involved if either one drifted !).
They also face a big improver, in the shape of Mick Maestro.
He’s been transformed since transferring into the care of Nick Kent, winning 2 of his 4 starts for the stable - and appearing unlucky on one of the others (he fell at the third last, when in the lead).
He’s climbing the handicap at pace - but it’s hard to know when his improvement will stop and he certainly can’t be discounted.
It’ll be a little surprising if the winner comes from outside of these 3 - but that’s precisely what the market says.
It’s therefore likely that this will also be a watching race…

Navan

2:47

The feature race on the Navan card, is the Boyne hurdle.

Fury Rod has been installed a short priced favourite - and whilst he may potentially be the best horse in the race, I’m not sure this race will fully play to his strengths…
He finished a close third in last seasons Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham festival, staying on strongly over 3 miles.
Todays race is over 3 furlongs less - and whilst the very heavy ground is likely to make it hard going, it still may not be as much of a stamina test as he would like.
He has also got his work cut out, on official ratings.
He’s rated 3lb inferior to Beacon Edge - yet has to give that rival 2lb…
By contrast to Fury Road, Beacon Edge should be in his element over todays trip.
He disappointed last time over 2 miles - but the time before, he got within a length of Honesysuckle over 2m4f.
Based on that run, he looks the one to beat in todays contest.
In fact French Dynamite may prove to be more of a danger, than Fury Road.
He’d looked an improved horse this season, prior to a disappointing run last time, behind flooring Porter.
However, the key again, could be the trip.
That race was over 3 miles: whilst his previous betters runs, had been over 2m4f.
A return to the intermediate trip, is likely to suit him well…
Whilst the 3 mentioned, do stand out, it’s impossible to dismiss any of the other 5 runners…
Darasso looks just about the best of the remainder; but it wouldn’t be the biggest shock ever, if Tiger Roll managed to win - just as he did in 2019, prior to his second Grand National success…