Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Ascot
1:50
Severano 10 units win 3/1
2:25
Yalltari 5 units win 8/1
Newtide 3 units win 5/1
Jerrysback 2 units win 7/2
3:00
Kid Commando 2 units win 14/1
Haydock
2:05
Main Fact 5 units win 13/2
Third Wind 3 units win 5/1
Ballyoptic 2 units win 16/1
2:40
Achille 5 units win 7/1
Enqarde 2 units win 9/2
Best bets
Ascot
1:50
Severano 1pt win 3/1
2:25
Yalltari 0.5pt win 8/1
Haydock
2:05
Main Fact 0.5pt win 13/2
2:40
Achille 0.5pt win 7/1
Whilst I’m used to price movements, between the opening show
and the race day morning, the movements I witnessed for todays races were
extreme…
I always begin my studying for Saturdays racing, on Thursday lunchtime - when the final decs come through.
By Thursday evening, most of the televised races have been priced up by most of the bookmakers, so I have reasonable idea of the prices my fancies will be and am therefore able to asses whether they are likely to become official bets.
Quite often, a number of those prices will get cut during Friday - but things were crazy this week !
I mentioned Third Wind in last nights preview (opened at 14/1 - 5/1 at 9:00 this morning !) - but he wasn’t the only one…
Virtually every horse on my list of likely bets, halved in price from Thursday evening to this morning.
The issue with that, is that I need to re-examine everything this morning and decide whether any value remains.
Todays racing is very competitive (as is normally the case on a Saturday) - and in each case, I decided the value had gone.
Therefore, I had to find a completely new set of Best bets !
I don’t mind doing that with the odd one - but to have to do it with them all, was far from ideal…
Still, things are as they are - and I either did that; accepted ‘no value’ on the original bets; or sat things out completely !
Let’s hope I made the right call..!
Ascot
I think that the 2 to focus on in the 1:50. are Demachine and Severano.
My original intention was to suggested Demachine - but that was when he was a 6/1 shot !
He’s now 11/4 and has usurped Severano as favourite.
I don’t think that’s right - and the slight drift on Severano means that he is now worth a bet.
He’s highly thought of by Oliver Sherwood and has been aimed at this race.
Officially, he is the best horse in the race and I think he is the most likely winner.
In the circumstances, 3/1 (or slightly better) is a fair price in a 6 runner race.
Newtide was my original main fancy in the 2:25 - but the early 11/1 has become 5/1.
I’m not surprised to see him well backed - but the price is now too short for him to be a Best bet.
I was very taken by the run of Yalltari last time.
It’s easy to argue he is well handicapped - and hopefully will be spot on for today.
I’m slightly unsure about the booking of Daryl Jacobs - but I decided to just ignore that ! (it could be interpreted as a negative - but may not be).
Yalltari remains value at around 8/1 and is the Best bet in the race.
Newtide is worth a saver: as is Jerrysback (even though his price is short).
If the race is won by something outside those 3, then so be it…
I couldn’t find an angle into the 3:00.
Arrivederci is too short compared to Kateson and Dans le Vent - even though I have a slight preference for him.
There is also no value in the price of Galdiateur Allen.
As a consequence, I’m inclined to take a small risk on Kid Commando.
He’s not a Best bet (he needs to bounce back from a couple of below par runs) - but he does warrant a small play for the Matrix.
I nearly took a small risk on Bennys King in the 3:35 - but Andy Holding tipped him before I could issue - and the price went…
In truth, it would be all about price with him - because I really don’t think he should be good enough to beat Cyrname or Master Tommytucker.
That said, I can see a scenario where the race falls apart - and if that does happen, he could well pick up the pieces.
If you can get 10/1, he could be worth a small play - at 7/1, I’ll just be watching…
Haydock
As I mentioned in last nights preview, my original plan was to suggest Third Wind in the 2:05 - but his price has been destroyed.
It’s similar to the situation with Demachine at Ascot - in that he’s now shorter in the betting than the horse I consider most likely to win the race.
That horse is Main Fact - and he holds Third Wind on their run over course and distance in November.
There shouldn’t be much between the pair - but according to the book, Main Fact should edge it !
It’s easy to find holes in the cases of all of the fancied runners - so Main Fact is the Best bet.
Third Wind is worth a saver for the Matrix - as is Ballyoptic.
He may find this an insufficient test of his stamina - unless it is truly bottomless - but he’s the best horse in the race on official ratings and 16/1 is too big a price.
Enqard was the one who’s price went in the 2:40 - 6/1 into 9/2…
Admittedly that’s not as big a drop as the others - but this is a very competitive race.
After consideration, I decided the price was too short and switched allegiance to Achille.
My feeling when I first looked at the race, was that he lacked a bit of class - but I suspect he’s just a late developer.
I was also concerned about the potential impact of his big run last time - but he has backed up big runs previously.
I don’t think there is huge margin in a price of 7/1 - but I think it slightly under-estimates his chance.
Enqard is worth covering on the Matrix - as he is just about the most likely race winner…
Wincanton
At no point did I consider suggesting anything for the Kingwell hurdle (3:18).
Song for Someone is the most likely winner - but is priced up accordingly.
Goshen is the one horse in the race who could possibly beat him - but he is the second favourite.
Most definitely a watching race…
I always begin my studying for Saturdays racing, on Thursday lunchtime - when the final decs come through.
By Thursday evening, most of the televised races have been priced up by most of the bookmakers, so I have reasonable idea of the prices my fancies will be and am therefore able to asses whether they are likely to become official bets.
Quite often, a number of those prices will get cut during Friday - but things were crazy this week !
I mentioned Third Wind in last nights preview (opened at 14/1 - 5/1 at 9:00 this morning !) - but he wasn’t the only one…
Virtually every horse on my list of likely bets, halved in price from Thursday evening to this morning.
The issue with that, is that I need to re-examine everything this morning and decide whether any value remains.
Todays racing is very competitive (as is normally the case on a Saturday) - and in each case, I decided the value had gone.
Therefore, I had to find a completely new set of Best bets !
I don’t mind doing that with the odd one - but to have to do it with them all, was far from ideal…
Still, things are as they are - and I either did that; accepted ‘no value’ on the original bets; or sat things out completely !
Let’s hope I made the right call..!
Ascot
I think that the 2 to focus on in the 1:50. are Demachine and Severano.
My original intention was to suggested Demachine - but that was when he was a 6/1 shot !
He’s now 11/4 and has usurped Severano as favourite.
I don’t think that’s right - and the slight drift on Severano means that he is now worth a bet.
He’s highly thought of by Oliver Sherwood and has been aimed at this race.
Officially, he is the best horse in the race and I think he is the most likely winner.
In the circumstances, 3/1 (or slightly better) is a fair price in a 6 runner race.
Newtide was my original main fancy in the 2:25 - but the early 11/1 has become 5/1.
I’m not surprised to see him well backed - but the price is now too short for him to be a Best bet.
I was very taken by the run of Yalltari last time.
It’s easy to argue he is well handicapped - and hopefully will be spot on for today.
I’m slightly unsure about the booking of Daryl Jacobs - but I decided to just ignore that ! (it could be interpreted as a negative - but may not be).
Yalltari remains value at around 8/1 and is the Best bet in the race.
Newtide is worth a saver: as is Jerrysback (even though his price is short).
If the race is won by something outside those 3, then so be it…
I couldn’t find an angle into the 3:00.
Arrivederci is too short compared to Kateson and Dans le Vent - even though I have a slight preference for him.
There is also no value in the price of Galdiateur Allen.
As a consequence, I’m inclined to take a small risk on Kid Commando.
He’s not a Best bet (he needs to bounce back from a couple of below par runs) - but he does warrant a small play for the Matrix.
I nearly took a small risk on Bennys King in the 3:35 - but Andy Holding tipped him before I could issue - and the price went…
In truth, it would be all about price with him - because I really don’t think he should be good enough to beat Cyrname or Master Tommytucker.
That said, I can see a scenario where the race falls apart - and if that does happen, he could well pick up the pieces.
If you can get 10/1, he could be worth a small play - at 7/1, I’ll just be watching…
Haydock
As I mentioned in last nights preview, my original plan was to suggest Third Wind in the 2:05 - but his price has been destroyed.
It’s similar to the situation with Demachine at Ascot - in that he’s now shorter in the betting than the horse I consider most likely to win the race.
That horse is Main Fact - and he holds Third Wind on their run over course and distance in November.
There shouldn’t be much between the pair - but according to the book, Main Fact should edge it !
It’s easy to find holes in the cases of all of the fancied runners - so Main Fact is the Best bet.
Third Wind is worth a saver for the Matrix - as is Ballyoptic.
He may find this an insufficient test of his stamina - unless it is truly bottomless - but he’s the best horse in the race on official ratings and 16/1 is too big a price.
Enqard was the one who’s price went in the 2:40 - 6/1 into 9/2…
Admittedly that’s not as big a drop as the others - but this is a very competitive race.
After consideration, I decided the price was too short and switched allegiance to Achille.
My feeling when I first looked at the race, was that he lacked a bit of class - but I suspect he’s just a late developer.
I was also concerned about the potential impact of his big run last time - but he has backed up big runs previously.
I don’t think there is huge margin in a price of 7/1 - but I think it slightly under-estimates his chance.
Enqard is worth covering on the Matrix - as he is just about the most likely race winner…
Wincanton
At no point did I consider suggesting anything for the Kingwell hurdle (3:18).
Song for Someone is the most likely winner - but is priced up accordingly.
Goshen is the one horse in the race who could possibly beat him - but he is the second favourite.
Most definitely a watching race…
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