Rain has claimed tomorrows meeting at Gowran - but all of the UK meetings look likely to go ahead.
That said, the ground at all 3 is already bordering on heavy - so none of them can afford much more rain to fall, prior to the off !
Ascot host the main meeting of the day - though Haydock isn’t far behind.
There is only one race of interest at Wincanton - the Kingwell hurdle - and whilst it’s unlikely to yield any bets, it should still be a fascinating watch.
Ascot
1:50
There are only 6 declared for the Reynoldstown novice chase - but it still looks very competitive and no result would come as a huge surprise.
On official ratings, Sevarano is the best horse in the race - and although he will be stepping up to 3 miles for the first time, it looks likely to suit.
He won his first 2 chase starts this season - and whilst he was quite well beaten last time at Newbury, he slipped badly on landing after jumping the first fence.
Clearly he had plenty of time to recover from that - but it probably affected his confidence and he may well not have performed to his best.
Demachine finished 3 lengths in front of him that day - but is 8lb worse off at the weights tomorrow, so it should be close between the pair.
Demachine was sent off favourite for that particular race, having been impressive in winning his 2 previous starts.
It was therefore a little disappointing that he could only finish third - and it’s quite interesting to note that he has subsequently undergone a wind op.
That can be read as a positive or a negative - but if it’s had the desired effect, he could prove tough to beat.
Full Back and Remastered are nearly impossible to assess.
Both have won their 2 latest starts - but in those 4 races, have faced a total of just 11 rivals !
What the form amounts to, is anyones guess - though both clearly have potential.
Kalooki looked a novice chaser going places, when he won at Newbury in November - but he has been seriously disappointing on his 2 subsequent starts.
He’ll need to bounce back - and whilst there is no obvious reason why he will, there was also no obvious reason for him losing his form !
Hurricane Harvey is the final runner.
He has form which would put him right in the mix - however a 5lb penalty for his last time win in a grade 2 event at Doncaster, means he faces quite a challenge.
2:25
Even with Notachance a non runner (he runs at Haydock), this still looks quite a tricky puzzle to solve.
Jerrysback has been installed favourite following a promising comeback run over tomorrows course, last month.
He finished third that day, to Dashel Drasher and Bennys King - and it says much for the strength of the form, that the first two both contest the grade 1 Ascot chase, later on the card.
Jerrysback never really looked like beating either of them - but he was clearly the third best horse in the race.
He gets to run off the same mark tomorrow - whilst the step up to 3 miles should be in his favour.
The key question is whether he will have progressed for the run - or gone backwards.
If it’s the former then he will take a lot of beating - but as if was his first outing in 400 days, there is a chance that he might ‘bounce’…
Cobolobo chased home Enqard in a different race at the same meeting.
That was a solid effort - and even off a 2lb higher mark tomorrow, he should run well.
However, it remains to be seen, whether he will be able to confirm the form with fourth placed Yalltari.
He looked to be going best of all turning in - but then didn’t get home.
Maybe he still needed the run (despite it being his third of the season) - and if so, he’s handicapped to go very close.
Newtide is another one of significant interest.
He’s only had one run so far this season, when finished third in an attritional race at Haydock, back in November.
He’s been given plenty of time to recover from that - and also undergone a wind op.
Kim Bailey and David Bass have a good record at Ascot - and if he is well backed, he could prove tough to beat.
Musical Slave is the final one of interest.
He ran disappointingly at Doncaster last time, when well fancied for the Sky bet chase.
However, prior to that, he had run eye catchingly on his seasonal debut at Newbury.
It will depend which Musical Slave turns up - and the fact that Richard Johnson has chosen to ride Jarrysback, is hardly a positive.
However, if he’s on his ‘A’ game, then he has sufficient ability to go close.
3:00
This is just about the most competitive race of the day, with 16 runners - plenty of whom can be given a chance…
The key form line looks to involve Arrivederce, Kateson and Dans le Vent.
They filled the places behind Cragineiche, in a similar race over course and distance, last month.
Arrivederci did best of the trio, in finishing runner up - and whilst he is 2lb higher tomorrow, he should still have every chance.
That said, Kateson looked the most likely winner turning in (traded at 1.7); whilst Dans le Vent was finishing best, so it’s easy to construct an argument for both of them.
This is a situation where price will be particularly important, as there should be very little between them…
Away from that form line, then Gladiateur Allen looks the most interesting.
He won a novice event on the same card - and whilst the time of that race didn’t compare favourably, after just 3 runs over hurdles, he clearly still has plenty of scope for improvement.
An opening handicap mark of 131 looks fair enough and it would be no surprise to see him run a really big race.
All of the others are exposed handicappers, so it’s a question of trying to identify the ones who will be best suited to tomorrows test - and also have some scope from their current mark.
Malaya has been placed in the last 2 runnings of this race - and should again run well, off a fair mark.
On the flip side, she has few secrets from the handicapper and the expectation would be that she will find one or two, too good.
Kid Commando was really impressive when winning over the course in October (from Malaya). However he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs and now has a fair bit to prove.
However, he’s had a recent wind op - and is now back on a mark just 4lb higher.
If he can bounce back to form then he could run a big race at a decent price.
3:35
The feature race on the card may not one to bet in - but it should still be a fascinating watch…
On official ratings, Cyrname has almost a stone in hand of all of his rivals - and if he is at his best, then he is unlikely to be beaten.
However, he’s not been at his best on 3 out of his last 4 runs - and the fitting of first time cheek pieces, is slightly concerning.
Ofcourse, they could have the desired effect, in which case he may easily outclass his rivals - however, they also hint that all may not be quite right.
It’s certainly possible to argue that his defeat of Altior, 15 months ago, bottomed him - and although he did win at Wetherby first time out this season, that piece of form isn’t particularly strong.
He may simply be past his best - and if that’s the case, then he faces rivals tomorrow who are well capable of taking advantage.
That said, choosing which one is most likely to, if Cyrname does under-perform, is not an easy task…
On official ratings, there is only 4lb between the 4 other runners - and whilst I think that’s a little harsh on Master Tommytucker (who I feel deserves a higher rating), more often than not, the official handicapper is right !
Furthermore, Master Tommytuckers jumping remains a concern.
He jumped well at Kempton last time (apart from the final fence !) - but he benefited from an uncontested lead.
That’s not going to happen tomorrow…
If the cheek pieces light up Cyrname, he is likely to want to lead: whilst Dashel Drasher only has one way of running (hard - from the front !)
In the circumstances, it could pay to take a chance on either Bennys King or Riders onthe Storm.
Riders onthe Storm won this race 12 months ago - when Cyrname was a very disappointing 4/11 fav - though he’s shown nothing in 3 subsequent runs.
He may bounce back tomorrow - but it would require an act of faith to support him.
Bennys King is far more reliable. However, he is taking a big step up in class, having appeared relatively exposed.
That said, his best form is over tomorrows course and distance - whilst he will have no issue with very soft ground.
If there is a pace war up front, then he strikes me as the one most likely to take advantage.
Haydock
2:05
I did think I’d found a nice bet in this race - but alas the early market moves have already made it considerably less attractive !
Third Wind was the horse I had in mind - as he was installed at 14/1 on the opening show.
I didn’t expect that to last - but I was hopeful he would be around 10/1 tomorrow morning (or at least, no worse than 8/1).
I felt that was a realistic hope, as on official ratings, he is the second worst horse in the race - and by some margin !
However, others have picked up on the fact that the ratings of many of his rivals look artificially high - and he will be better suited than some, to tomorrows test of 3 miles in the mud.
As a consequence, he’s now down to 13/2…
I’ll make a decision on the morning, whether he’s worth getting involved with (at whatever price he is at that time !).
Him aside, it’s a tough race to call, as there are question marks over all of the runners…
On official ratings, Ballyoptic is the one to beat - but he is an 11 year old chaser, returning to hurdles for the first time in over 3 years.
He also has a claiming jockey in the saddle, who won’t be able to utilise his claim.
On the flip side, he will relish tomorrows conditions (and that won’t be the case for all of the runners).
Itchy Feet is the next best in, on official ratings.
However, he too is returning to hurdles after coming up short over fences - and he is unproven over tomorrows trip.
He has also been installed the early favourite - and as such, makes little appeal.
Lisnagar Oscar won the Stayers hurdle at last years Cheltenham festival - and based on that run, he must have every chance.
However, he’s disappointed in 2 runs this season - and won’t appreciate very soft ground.
It’s 3 months since he last ran - and whilst he has had a wind op in the interim, it’s hard not to think that this is merely a warm up for the defence of his crown, next month.
Emitom won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and despite disappointing in 2 chases this season, he does have a chance of following up, back over hurdles.
That said, He is penalised for last years win - and this looks a stronger renewal…
Main Fact is closely weighted with Third Wind, based on their run over course and distance in November.
He came out best by a couple of lengths that day - and is just about weighted to confirm the form.
That said, there shouldn’t be much between the pair…
With a straight bat, On the Blind Side is the one to beat.
He’s been revitalised this season by a return to hurdles - and has run really well in his last 4 races (winning 2 of them).
The only issue is, he’s definitely beatable - and a price of 7/2, represents no value.
2:40
Whilst this looks another relatively open contest, it’s not too surprising to see the younger, less exposed horses have gravitated to the head of the market.
In theory, that should create value elsewhere - if you can spot it - and are brave enough to take it !
Ignoring prices, then Enqard is the one I like best.
He was a good winner at Ascot last month (when I made him a Best bet) - and I’m not sure that an 8lb higher rating tomorrow, will stop him from winning again.
It’s also interesting that Dr Newland has chosen to run him in this race, rather than the Ascot handicap (2:25).
The suggestion being that he expects the horse to improve for a step up in trip.
In fairness, he will need to, as this is a stronger race…
Sojourn and Notachance are the 2 other young, progressive horses who are well fancied in the betting.
Of the pair, I would favour Sojourn.
He was a little disappointing last time (despite finishing second) - having been hugely impressive when winning at Carlisle on his seasonal debut.
I would expect him to relish tomorrows step up in trip - and it’s hard to see him not running well.
By contrast, Notachance may have had his day in the sun (or more accurately, rain !) last time at Warwick, when winning the Classic chase.
He did that well - but must have had a hard race - and will be running off a mark 7lb higher tomorrow.
The other 6 runners are all a little more ‘gnarled’ - and whilst that won’t stop them from winning, it’s only likely to happen if none of the 3 unexposed horses show improvement.
In truth, I would find it hard to choose between the 6.
Achille has every chance, based on his second pace to Notachance in the Classic chase; whilst Ramses de Teille can also be given a chance, with Fergus Gillards 5lb claim arguably putting him on a mark lower than when he beat Yala Enki at Cheltenham in November.
It’s easy to see The Two Amigos running well - though whether he will be able to run well enough to win, remains to be seen.
Similarly, Lord du Mesnil should also run well, off a mark just 2lb higher than when second in the race 12 months ago - though he too, looks vulnerable from a win perspective.
2:05
I did think I’d found a nice bet in this race - but alas the early market moves have already made it considerably less attractive !
Third Wind was the horse I had in mind - as he was installed at 14/1 on the opening show.
I didn’t expect that to last - but I was hopeful he would be around 10/1 tomorrow morning (or at least, no worse than 8/1).
I felt that was a realistic hope, as on official ratings, he is the second worst horse in the race - and by some margin !
However, others have picked up on the fact that the ratings of many of his rivals look artificially high - and he will be better suited than some, to tomorrows test of 3 miles in the mud.
As a consequence, he’s now down to 13/2…
I’ll make a decision on the morning, whether he’s worth getting involved with (at whatever price he is at that time !).
Him aside, it’s a tough race to call, as there are question marks over all of the runners…
On official ratings, Ballyoptic is the one to beat - but he is an 11 year old chaser, returning to hurdles for the first time in over 3 years.
He also has a claiming jockey in the saddle, who won’t be able to utilise his claim.
On the flip side, he will relish tomorrows conditions (and that won’t be the case for all of the runners).
Itchy Feet is the next best in, on official ratings.
However, he too is returning to hurdles after coming up short over fences - and he is unproven over tomorrows trip.
He has also been installed the early favourite - and as such, makes little appeal.
Lisnagar Oscar won the Stayers hurdle at last years Cheltenham festival - and based on that run, he must have every chance.
However, he’s disappointed in 2 runs this season - and won’t appreciate very soft ground.
It’s 3 months since he last ran - and whilst he has had a wind op in the interim, it’s hard not to think that this is merely a warm up for the defence of his crown, next month.
Emitom won the corresponding race 12 months ago - and despite disappointing in 2 chases this season, he does have a chance of following up, back over hurdles.
That said, He is penalised for last years win - and this looks a stronger renewal…
Main Fact is closely weighted with Third Wind, based on their run over course and distance in November.
He came out best by a couple of lengths that day - and is just about weighted to confirm the form.
That said, there shouldn’t be much between the pair…
With a straight bat, On the Blind Side is the one to beat.
He’s been revitalised this season by a return to hurdles - and has run really well in his last 4 races (winning 2 of them).
The only issue is, he’s definitely beatable - and a price of 7/2, represents no value.
2:40
Whilst this looks another relatively open contest, it’s not too surprising to see the younger, less exposed horses have gravitated to the head of the market.
In theory, that should create value elsewhere - if you can spot it - and are brave enough to take it !
Ignoring prices, then Enqard is the one I like best.
He was a good winner at Ascot last month (when I made him a Best bet) - and I’m not sure that an 8lb higher rating tomorrow, will stop him from winning again.
It’s also interesting that Dr Newland has chosen to run him in this race, rather than the Ascot handicap (2:25).
The suggestion being that he expects the horse to improve for a step up in trip.
In fairness, he will need to, as this is a stronger race…
Sojourn and Notachance are the 2 other young, progressive horses who are well fancied in the betting.
Of the pair, I would favour Sojourn.
He was a little disappointing last time (despite finishing second) - having been hugely impressive when winning at Carlisle on his seasonal debut.
I would expect him to relish tomorrows step up in trip - and it’s hard to see him not running well.
By contrast, Notachance may have had his day in the sun (or more accurately, rain !) last time at Warwick, when winning the Classic chase.
He did that well - but must have had a hard race - and will be running off a mark 7lb higher tomorrow.
The other 6 runners are all a little more ‘gnarled’ - and whilst that won’t stop them from winning, it’s only likely to happen if none of the 3 unexposed horses show improvement.
In truth, I would find it hard to choose between the 6.
Achille has every chance, based on his second pace to Notachance in the Classic chase; whilst Ramses de Teille can also be given a chance, with Fergus Gillards 5lb claim arguably putting him on a mark lower than when he beat Yala Enki at Cheltenham in November.
It’s easy to see The Two Amigos running well - though whether he will be able to run well enough to win, remains to be seen.
Similarly, Lord du Mesnil should also run well, off a mark just 2lb higher than when second in the race 12 months ago - though he too, looks vulnerable from a win perspective.
Wincanton
3:18
This is an impossible race to bet in - though interesting non-the-less !
It’s impossible, because it all depends which Goshen turns up…
He looked a world beater, when an incredibly unlucky faller at the final flight in last years Triumph hurdle: but in 3 subsequent runs, he’s look anything but !
In fairness, 2 of the runs were on the flat - but the latest one wasn’t - and it resulted in probably his most disappointing effort.
That was in the International hurdle at Cheltenhams December meeting - where he was sent off 6/4 fav in a strong 10 runner field.
However, he was soon in trouble - and ultimately trailed in a well beaten last.
It can be argued that the run was too bad to be true - but when added to his 2 disappointing efforts on the flat, it gets easier to believe.
He’s had a 2 month break since then - and maybe he’ll bounce back to form tomorrow - but it would take an act of faith to bet on it…
It was Song for Someone who won the international hurdle - and he’s looked an improved performer this season.
His current rating of 158 is fully justified - and puts him only a few pounds shy of Champion hurdle class.
He has to give 6lb to Goshen tomorrow - and on official ratings, it should be too much.
However, that relies on Goshen running up to his official rating…
Navajo Pass is the other main player in the race.
He too has looked much improved this season: winning at Musselburgh - and then following up at Haydock, where he claimed the scalp of Buveur Dair.
Taken at face value, the Haydock runs gives him every chance tomorrow - though there must be a strong chance he was flattered, up against a horse returning from a long absence…
Neither Esprit du Large or Friend or Foe, can be completely dismissed - though both will have their work cut out to win.
In truth, this race looks very much at the mercy of Song for Someone - which is precisely what the betting says - unless ofcourse, the old Goshen has been miraculously resurrected..!
3:18
This is an impossible race to bet in - though interesting non-the-less !
It’s impossible, because it all depends which Goshen turns up…
He looked a world beater, when an incredibly unlucky faller at the final flight in last years Triumph hurdle: but in 3 subsequent runs, he’s look anything but !
In fairness, 2 of the runs were on the flat - but the latest one wasn’t - and it resulted in probably his most disappointing effort.
That was in the International hurdle at Cheltenhams December meeting - where he was sent off 6/4 fav in a strong 10 runner field.
However, he was soon in trouble - and ultimately trailed in a well beaten last.
It can be argued that the run was too bad to be true - but when added to his 2 disappointing efforts on the flat, it gets easier to believe.
He’s had a 2 month break since then - and maybe he’ll bounce back to form tomorrow - but it would take an act of faith to bet on it…
It was Song for Someone who won the international hurdle - and he’s looked an improved performer this season.
His current rating of 158 is fully justified - and puts him only a few pounds shy of Champion hurdle class.
He has to give 6lb to Goshen tomorrow - and on official ratings, it should be too much.
However, that relies on Goshen running up to his official rating…
Navajo Pass is the other main player in the race.
He too has looked much improved this season: winning at Musselburgh - and then following up at Haydock, where he claimed the scalp of Buveur Dair.
Taken at face value, the Haydock runs gives him every chance tomorrow - though there must be a strong chance he was flattered, up against a horse returning from a long absence…
Neither Esprit du Large or Friend or Foe, can be completely dismissed - though both will have their work cut out to win.
In truth, this race looks very much at the mercy of Song for Someone - which is precisely what the betting says - unless ofcourse, the old Goshen has been miraculously resurrected..!
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