Review of the weekend - Feb 27th-28th

For most of the season, the P&L for the Matrix bets has lagged way behind the P&L for the Best bets.

It’s not what I expected - and whilst there have been a variety of reasons why, I’ll need to investigate the area further at the end of the season.

That said, the Matrix had a nice boost last weekend, with 3 winners - and it was the same again this weekend.
And now the gap between the 2 P&Ls isn’t quite so big..!


Saturday

Whilst it was great to have some confidence regarding the ground conditions (for the first time this year !) - and there was some nice racing taking place at Kempton, there weren’t many big races suitable for betting.

As a consequence, I had to spread the net a bit wider, in order to find the days Best bets.

Ultimately, I found 4 - and the first of them Tout est Permis, ran in the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse…

He had a good chance on the book - provided he was able to recapture his form, following a couple of below par runs.
And whilst he did run a little better than he had been doing, he didn’t run well enough to ever be in with much chance of winning.
He was obviously a slightly risky selection - but I hoped for better and it was a disappointing start to the day.

Next up, was Springfield Fox in the Eider at Newcastle.
As with Tout est Permis, he has disappointed on his 2 most recent runs this season - but I was hoping that the application of first time cheek pieces would result in an improved effort.

And they did.
He led from the off, until the home turn.
However, he was never jumping fluently or travelling particularly strongly, and he was beaten as soon as he was passed.

For the Matrix, I had also covered on Sam’s Adventure.

He was installed 4/1 fav when betting opened on Monday - but was an easy 6/1 shot, come Saturday morning.
The drift continued right up the off, with him eventually sent off at 15/2 (and with a BSP of 11).
Despite the lack of market confidence, he travelled strongly through the race - and battled well after jumping the last, to see off the challenge of Crossley Tender.

The Butcher Said was the next Best bet to run - and I was quite keen on him.
I was even keener when I saw the pace the leaders were going in the early stages of the race !
They appeared to be going much too fast, so I felt Adrian Heskin had made a good choice, holding him up in last pace.

However, that wasn’t quite how it worked out.
As things turned out, the best place to be in the race, was mid-pack - so whilst the leaders did indeed fold, The Butcher Said found himself too far out of his ground, to be able to take advantage.

Fortunately, I’d covered 3 more of the 18 runner field for the Matrix: and whilst Fingerontheswtich was given a similar ride to The Butcher Said (with similar results !), Erick le Rouge and Clondaw Castle both raced in mid division.

Towards the end of the back straight, Erick took up the running - and under a typically forceful Jamie Moore ride, he did his very best to come home in front.
However, he just provided a nice tow into the race for Clondaw Castle - who pounced after the last and went on for a comfortable win.

It was a very good performance and suggested that the winner isn’t far off graded class…

The final best bet of the day, was back over at Newcastle.

Last Goodbye caught my eye on his penultimate run at Doncaster - and off a 4lb lower mark and over a shorter trip, I was pretty keen on his chance.

At least that was the case when I first looked at the race - but closer examination showed he faced a couple of potentially dangerous opponents in the shape of Seemorelights and Fortified Bay.
This is the kind of situation where the Matrix excels, as it allow me to make my strongest fancy the ‘Best bet’ - but also cover the dangers….

In the race itself, the writing was on the wall quite early for Last Goodbye, as he raced far too freely.
He was beaten before the home turn, at which point Seemorelights looked like he might win.
However too he then started to struggle - and as Informature strode on, all looked lost.
But from having looked held approaching the last, Fortified Bay then produced a power packed finish to get up in the shadows of the post.
The Matrix had a few go the other way earlier in the season - so it was definitely due one…

And so ended a slightly strange day.
On one hand, it was disappointing to pick out 3 winners and not make any of them a ‘Best bet’; but on the other, they were at least all covered in the Matrix (which is how it’s supposed to work !).

It will be interesting to see which method achieves the better P&L over the course of the season.
It looked an open and shut case a fortnight ago - but not quite so much now !


Sunday

There was just the one race of interest on Sunday - the National Spirit hurdle at Fontwell - but I couldn’t find a bet in it.

Whilst I felt that Molly Ollies Wishes represented theoretical value - I suspected  she wouldn’t be quite good enough to hold off the 2 market leaders.

And that was exactly how things worked out…

Molly led to the home turn (at which point she traded at 3 IR) - but then McFabulous and Brewinupastorm, went past.
In truth, there wasn’t much of a battle between the pair - as the Brewinupastorm quickly asserted.

I did think he was just about the most likely winner - but that depended on tactics and ground (neither of which we could be sure about in advance).

He was also a best price of just 5/2 this morning (though did go off at 3/1 - and was available 4/1+ for most of the race).