There are no particularly big races tomorrow - but there are 3 decent meetings and lots of reasonable races for me to preview.
It will help enormously, that the weather is stable, so I should have a good feel for the state of the ground (helped further by the fact that they also race today, at both Newbury and Doncaster).
I’ve no doubt that getting prices in the morning, will be as tricky as ever (I’ve already seen a few cut, that I was interested in !) - but there’s not a lot I can do about that.
Hopefully I’ll still be able to find some ‘value’ bets, when I come to issue…
Newbury
1:30
I suggested Present Man for this race on Monday, on the midweek ante-post thread in the forum - and it’s little surprise that he’s been backed into favouritism.
I do think he’s the most likely race winner - however the race has stood up a bit better than I expected, and he’s no certainty.
Most of the 10 runners can be given some kind of a chance - and the early 4/1 on Present Man strikes me as probably a point shorter than it should be.
Maybe the price will drift a little - it’s likely to depend on how bullish Paul Nichols is, in his Betfair column…
Shantou Village looks to be the biggest danger to Present Man - and he too has been backed.
There was only a couple of lengths between the pair, when they clashed at Chepstow, in October.
Shantou Village will be 2lb better off tomorrow - which means that there should be virtually nothing between them.
However, he will also have Millie Wonnacott in the saddle and her 7lb claim could prove decisive (she didn’t ride him at Chepstow).
Singlefarmpayment was the other one that interested me in the 5 day declarations - and he has also made the final decs.
He is potentially very well handicapped - but he’s always had a bit of an issue about winning - and it doesn’t seem to be improving with age !
He may drop in one day, but this race is probably a bit too strong for him to do that...
Sir Ivan is the ‘form’ horse in the race, having finished third in the 2020 series final, at Sandown in early January.
However, that resulted in a 1lb rating rise, which won’t help his chance.
The Kings Writ and Colorado Doc, are interesting as the two 10 year olds in the race (an age group which tends to do well in such races).
However, the ground may have gone against The Kings Writ; whilst Colorado Doc seems to be developing some undesirable wayward tendencies.
He would be of interest if he could recapture the form which saw him win at Plumpton at the back end of last season - but he’s run as if something isn’t right, in his 3 outings this campaign.
1:50
This is probably the most competitive race of the day - and plenty can be given a chance…
Grand Sancy has been installed the early favourite - and it’s not hard to see why…
A grade 2 winner over hurdles, he’s only run 6 times over fences but has appeared capable of reaching the same level over the bigger obstacles.
He made his chasing debut in a grade 1 event last season (and finished third) and has run in three other graded events, placing in them all.
The twice he has run outside graded company over fences, he’s won - though admittedly, both were small field affairs.
Paul Nichols has a ridiculous record in this race, having trained 9 out of 15 race winners - and whilst I would have preferred to see Harry Cobden in the the saddle, he can’t be in 2 places at once (he’s at Kelso) and Bryony isn’t a bad substitute.
It’s likely to take a very well handicapped horse to beat him…
Killer Clown could be well handicapped - it’s hard to say.
He dotted up at Kempton over Christmas - but has been raised 15lb for that win (which is a lot !).
That said, it looked a fair race - and the form has been boosted a few times since.
I suspect his new mark of 138 does under-estimate him - I’m just not sure by how much…
Umbrigado has been in good form recently - but that’s been on softer ground than he will encounter tomorrow.
Whether he will be as effective on a sounder surface, remains to be seen…
Another Crick ran well at Warwick last month, on his return to chasing.
He had been very progressive in the 2018-19 season, but that was his first run over fences for 2 years.
The suggestion was that he retains all of his old ability - and if that is the case, then he should run well.
From a pure handicapping perspective, then Born Survivor is the most interesting horse in the race.
He won a good quality handicap chase at Ayr, 2 years ago, off a mark 4lb higher than he races off tomorrow.
On the back of that win, he was rated 152 - but will run off a mark of 138 tomorrow.
He’s not shown a lot this season (which is why his mark has been dropped), however, most of his runs have been over 2 miles.
He’s stepped back up in trip tomorrow - and from his reduced mark, should have a real chance.
As with Grand Sancey, his usual jockey (Harry Skelton) is elsewhere, meaning that Bridget Andrews takes over in the saddle.
The Russian Doyen is another one of potential interest, on his first run for Jeremy Scott.
Has was previously trained by Colin Tizzard - but that stable has really struggled to find any form this season, so the switch could easily have a positive effect.
If it does, then the horse is sufficiently well handicapped to go close..
Gala Ball isn’t as well handicapped - but 2m4f on good ground at Newbury, are his perfect conditions.
He got precisely those conditions in November, and split Clondaw Castle and Sully Doc AA.
That’s good form - and Gala Ball is now rated 3lb lower.
I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t seriously outrun his dismissive odds…
Doncaster
2:20
Of all tomorrows races, this one probably holds least appeal from a betting perspective - primarily because it’s very difficult to get a proper handle on many of the runners…
Wynn House has been installed a short priced favourite - which is a little surprising, considering she is only the third best horse in the race, on official ratings.
However, the official ratings probably don’t count for a lot in this particular contest - and she has reasonable form, along with a progressive profile.
It says much for the quality of the opposition, that she is just 2/1 in the early market - and whilst I couldn’t back her at that price, it’s not easy finding one with which to oppose her…
Second favourite, Go Millie Go, is held by Wynn House on Bangor form, from September.
She has won twice since then - but there is no obvious reason why she should gain her revenge, as she had an experience advantage over Wynn House, when they met.
On official ratings, Raynas World is the best horse in the race - however she is far more exposed than most of her rivals and her best form is on much softer ground than she is likely to encounter tomorrow.
Most of the others don’t really look good enough to win a race of this nature.
The likes of Alpha Carinea, Airgead Suas and Global Harmony, strike me as mid range handicappers who are hoping to hit lucky and get a bit of ‘black type’ (mares placed in listed races, such as this, get their names typed in bold in the studbook - to draw attention to them).
The one exception is Philippa Sue.
She is making her hurdling debut - and also her stable debut, for Graeme McPhearson.
Previously trained in Ireland, she was placed in 4 decent bumpers - and it’s very interesting that her new connections have chosen to start off in this race, as opposed to an ordinary maiden.
In fairness, I can understand why (it’s a weak race !) - and there must be a chance that their bold move will be rewarded with at least a placed effort…
2:55
Rikoboy is an improving young horse, who looked a bit unlucky to bump into one at Musselburgh last time.
He travelled really strongly through the race that day, but just couldn’t get the better of the relatively unexposed Ruinous.
That’s probably good form - but it was a class lower than tomorrows race - and Rikoboy was raised 6lb for coming second.
Getaway Trump and Zoffee are quite closely matched on their form at Warwick in October.
Getaway Trump come out on top that day - but it was only by a length. He’s also a little better off at the weights - but Zoffee has the greater scope for improvement.
There is also a chance that Zoffee will get an uncontested lead tomorrow.
He likes to go from the front, so his chance was compromised last time, when he found himself in a race full of front runners.
He was well beaten that day - but has been given plenty of time to recover from his exertions.
He’s a horse who prefers good ground - so underfoot conditions tomorrow, should be perfect for him.
Ballywood also needs good ground.
He disappointed in a couple of Cheltenham handicaps in the autumn, but was then given a few months off and underwent wind surgery.
He reappeared 3 weeks ago in a jumpers bumper at Kempton and ran with some credit.
If that’s brought him on, then he should also run well.
3:30
My initial feeling, on studying this race, was that it is a penalty kick for Canelo.
However, £27K handicaps are rarely that simple !
In fairness, it’s not drawn the strongest of line ups, with just the 7 declared.
Furthermore, Canelo is the only young, progressive runner in the field - and the only one who’s in any kind of form !
On the flip side, it can be argued that he couldn’t win last time, off a mark just 1lb higher - and this race is mainly being used as a prep for the Grand National.
All this said, if he doesn’t win the race, then I’m not sure what will be capable of doing so !
Chidswell is the second fav and a case can be made for him.
2:20
Of all tomorrows races, this one probably holds least appeal from a betting perspective - primarily because it’s very difficult to get a proper handle on many of the runners…
Wynn House has been installed a short priced favourite - which is a little surprising, considering she is only the third best horse in the race, on official ratings.
However, the official ratings probably don’t count for a lot in this particular contest - and she has reasonable form, along with a progressive profile.
It says much for the quality of the opposition, that she is just 2/1 in the early market - and whilst I couldn’t back her at that price, it’s not easy finding one with which to oppose her…
Second favourite, Go Millie Go, is held by Wynn House on Bangor form, from September.
She has won twice since then - but there is no obvious reason why she should gain her revenge, as she had an experience advantage over Wynn House, when they met.
On official ratings, Raynas World is the best horse in the race - however she is far more exposed than most of her rivals and her best form is on much softer ground than she is likely to encounter tomorrow.
Most of the others don’t really look good enough to win a race of this nature.
The likes of Alpha Carinea, Airgead Suas and Global Harmony, strike me as mid range handicappers who are hoping to hit lucky and get a bit of ‘black type’ (mares placed in listed races, such as this, get their names typed in bold in the studbook - to draw attention to them).
The one exception is Philippa Sue.
She is making her hurdling debut - and also her stable debut, for Graeme McPhearson.
Previously trained in Ireland, she was placed in 4 decent bumpers - and it’s very interesting that her new connections have chosen to start off in this race, as opposed to an ordinary maiden.
In fairness, I can understand why (it’s a weak race !) - and there must be a chance that their bold move will be rewarded with at least a placed effort…
2:55
Rikoboy is an improving young horse, who looked a bit unlucky to bump into one at Musselburgh last time.
He travelled really strongly through the race that day, but just couldn’t get the better of the relatively unexposed Ruinous.
That’s probably good form - but it was a class lower than tomorrows race - and Rikoboy was raised 6lb for coming second.
Getaway Trump and Zoffee are quite closely matched on their form at Warwick in October.
Getaway Trump come out on top that day - but it was only by a length. He’s also a little better off at the weights - but Zoffee has the greater scope for improvement.
There is also a chance that Zoffee will get an uncontested lead tomorrow.
He likes to go from the front, so his chance was compromised last time, when he found himself in a race full of front runners.
He was well beaten that day - but has been given plenty of time to recover from his exertions.
He’s a horse who prefers good ground - so underfoot conditions tomorrow, should be perfect for him.
Ballywood also needs good ground.
He disappointed in a couple of Cheltenham handicaps in the autumn, but was then given a few months off and underwent wind surgery.
He reappeared 3 weeks ago in a jumpers bumper at Kempton and ran with some credit.
If that’s brought him on, then he should also run well.
3:30
My initial feeling, on studying this race, was that it is a penalty kick for Canelo.
However, £27K handicaps are rarely that simple !
In fairness, it’s not drawn the strongest of line ups, with just the 7 declared.
Furthermore, Canelo is the only young, progressive runner in the field - and the only one who’s in any kind of form !
On the flip side, it can be argued that he couldn’t win last time, off a mark just 1lb higher - and this race is mainly being used as a prep for the Grand National.
All this said, if he doesn’t win the race, then I’m not sure what will be capable of doing so !
Chidswell is the second fav and a case can be made for him.
He’s 3lb lower than when second in last years Sky Bet chase, over
tomorrows course and distance. He will also appreciate the drying ground.
However, he is now 12 - so could easily be in decline…
Chef D’Oevre is the other one who may be capable of shaking up the favourite.
It’s 2 years since he was at his best - when third in the Grand National trial at Haydock.
That race was run on good ground - and he ran off a mark 3lb higher than he will race off tomorrow.
He’s had a wind op since he last ran - his second one in recent months. Whilst the re-application of cheek pieces does suggest that connections are clutching at straws a bit.
In fairness, I don’t blame them. He won’t find many easier opportunities to snare a big pot, so it’s understandable they are throwing the kitchen sink at him !
It’s hard to make much of a case for the others - so I think this will come down to how hard fit Canelo is.
Anything more than 90% and he is likely to win…
However, he is now 12 - so could easily be in decline…
Chef D’Oevre is the other one who may be capable of shaking up the favourite.
It’s 2 years since he was at his best - when third in the Grand National trial at Haydock.
That race was run on good ground - and he ran off a mark 3lb higher than he will race off tomorrow.
He’s had a wind op since he last ran - his second one in recent months. Whilst the re-application of cheek pieces does suggest that connections are clutching at straws a bit.
In fairness, I don’t blame them. He won’t find many easier opportunities to snare a big pot, so it’s understandable they are throwing the kitchen sink at him !
It’s hard to make much of a case for the others - so I think this will come down to how hard fit Canelo is.
Anything more than 90% and he is likely to win…
Kelso
1:30
This is a cracking little race.
My Drogo has been installed the early favourite - but I’m not sure I agree with that…
He was impressive when beating Llandinabo Lad at Ascot - and in Dan Skelton, is trained by a man who will have him in top shape for the contest.
However, on official ratings, he’s 3lb inferior to both Any News and Lucky Man - and yet has to conceded them both 5lb.
Now ratings aren’t the be all and end all, in these kind of races.
Most of the runners are progressive/very progressive, so the winner is likely to post a PB.
That said, I do think that My Drogo will have his work cut out, to beat Any News, in particular…
He was an impressive winner at Bangor in October- and looked like following up at Cheltenham in November, until being run out of things close home, by Make me a Believer.
There was no shame in that, as he was trying to give the winner 6lb - and he went on to frank the form with a good run at Warwick.
Lucky One was over 10 lengths back in third that day, and it’s hard to make a case for him reversing the form (even though he has subsequently won well, at Wincanton).
Bareback Jack is a hard one to quantify, after wins in 3 novice hurdles.
He will be taking a big step up in class tomorrow - but may be up to it.
By contrast, Do Your Job is taking a step down in class, having contested the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle on his most recent run.
He wasn’t up to the job that day - however, the race was run in desperate ground - and he was sent off at just 5/1.
That suggests he is well thought of - and if he improves for the better ground, or for a subsequent wind op, then he could easily outrun his price.
2:05
The Paul Nichols trained Flash Collonges makes his handicap debut in this and it’s not too surprising that he’s been installed the early favourite.
It’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 133 is fair - but Nichols seems to be happy enough with it.
I’ve little doubt that the market close to the off, will advise more accurately…
Mega Yeats was probably the one that interested me most - on her second run for Mark Walford.
She was very capable when trained by Ruth Jefferson - and ran well on her debut for Walford, when second in a jumpers bumper at Kempton.
That was her first run for over a year, so she is likely to have come on for it.
From a handicapping perspective, she is now on a very nice mark - 7lb lower than when mid division behind Dame de Compagnie, at Cheltenham, just over a year ago.
The issue however, is likely to be the price. An opening quote of 8/1 has already halved - and that doesn’t leave much margin for error.
Sail Away could be interesting on his UK debut for Dan Skleton - though again, the market is likely to offer the best advice.
Sebastapol could also be of interest - if a wind op has had the desired effect.
He was a good winner at Musselburgh, just over a year ago - and whilst he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs, he now finds himself on a mark just 2lb higher.
I’d be pretty sure that makes him well handicapped - if he is able to show his best.
The trip is a slight concern, as he’s only proven over the minimum. That said, when he was performing at his best, it looked as if he would benefit from an extra half mile.
2:40
There may only be 6 runners in this - and just 5 with a realistic chance - but it’s still a fascinating race…
Based on official ratings, Aso is very much the one to beat.
He is the joint highest rated horse in the race, with a rating of 158 - yet receives weight from all of his main rivals.
He also showed himself to be in top form, with a fine second to Two for Gold, on his most recent outing.
The issue with him, is the trip.
All of his best form is over 2m4f - and the few times he’s tried 3 miles, he’s appeared not to stay.
He may stay a little further now that he’s older - but that’s likely to be offset by him being a little slower !
If he is to win, then Charlie Deutch will need to produce a master class in conservative riding.
If he doesn’t get home, then Two for Gold looks the one most likely to take advantage.
He beat Aso by a neck at Warwick - but will be 9lb worse off tomorrow.
In theory, he has little chance of confirming the form - unless David Bass makes it a real stamina test and breaks Aso.
However, unlike Aso, Two for GOld is likely to improve for the increase in distance.
Ofcourse this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Definitly Red has the same official rating as Aso - and won the race last year.
However, he is now 12 - and probably not quite as good as he used to be.
Lake View Lad could certainly be given a chance, if his rating of 157 could be believed.
He was pushed up to 162, on the back of beating Santini and Frodon in a farcical race at Aintree - however that was quickly adjusted down by 5lb - and I suspect he is still rated a few pounds higher than his ability warrants.
Cloth Cap is the final one worthy of consideration.
He was a spectacular winner of the Ladbroke trophy in November - and is now favourite for the Grand National.
However, I’m pretty sure that Aintree is the only race that matters for him - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is fully wound up for this contest.
Even if he is, he will have his work cut out on official ratings - accepting that trip/ground should be ideal for him…
3:15
It’s hard to look beyond The Shunter in this - despite the limited appeal of a 2/1 shot in a 14 runner handicap !
He was a really impressive winner of the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenhams November meeting - and I find it quite surprising that he will get to run off a mark just 7lb higher tomorrow.
That was a stronger race than tomorrows - and I don’t think an additional 7lb would have stopped him from winning.
He’s only run once subsequently, when a staying third over fences at the Dublin Racing festival.
I suspect he could have won that race as well - given a more judicious ride - but whatever, it should ensure he is spot on tomorrow.
Faivoir has been installed second favourite, on the back of his win in a graded novice race at Haydock.
That was a good effort - but I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to concede 8lb to The Shunter.
Outside of him, potential dangers look thin on the ground…
Hunters Call has been running well all season and finished fourth in the Greatwood. However he is only 5lb better off with The Shunter for a beating of over 6 lengths - and that shouldn’t be sufficient to reverse the form.
Tommys Oscar and Night Edition could both be more dangerous - though there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The former has only run 4 times over hurdles, so certainly has plenty of scope for improvement. However, whether he is up to this class, remains to be seen.
Night Edition finished runner up in the Boodles at last years Cheltenham festival - and will run from a mark 4lb lower tomorrow.
That makes him potentially very interesting - however, he has shown nothing in 2 runs this season, so will need to rediscover his form.
1:30
This is a cracking little race.
My Drogo has been installed the early favourite - but I’m not sure I agree with that…
He was impressive when beating Llandinabo Lad at Ascot - and in Dan Skelton, is trained by a man who will have him in top shape for the contest.
However, on official ratings, he’s 3lb inferior to both Any News and Lucky Man - and yet has to conceded them both 5lb.
Now ratings aren’t the be all and end all, in these kind of races.
Most of the runners are progressive/very progressive, so the winner is likely to post a PB.
That said, I do think that My Drogo will have his work cut out, to beat Any News, in particular…
He was an impressive winner at Bangor in October- and looked like following up at Cheltenham in November, until being run out of things close home, by Make me a Believer.
There was no shame in that, as he was trying to give the winner 6lb - and he went on to frank the form with a good run at Warwick.
Lucky One was over 10 lengths back in third that day, and it’s hard to make a case for him reversing the form (even though he has subsequently won well, at Wincanton).
Bareback Jack is a hard one to quantify, after wins in 3 novice hurdles.
He will be taking a big step up in class tomorrow - but may be up to it.
By contrast, Do Your Job is taking a step down in class, having contested the grade 1 Tolworth hurdle on his most recent run.
He wasn’t up to the job that day - however, the race was run in desperate ground - and he was sent off at just 5/1.
That suggests he is well thought of - and if he improves for the better ground, or for a subsequent wind op, then he could easily outrun his price.
2:05
The Paul Nichols trained Flash Collonges makes his handicap debut in this and it’s not too surprising that he’s been installed the early favourite.
It’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 133 is fair - but Nichols seems to be happy enough with it.
I’ve little doubt that the market close to the off, will advise more accurately…
Mega Yeats was probably the one that interested me most - on her second run for Mark Walford.
She was very capable when trained by Ruth Jefferson - and ran well on her debut for Walford, when second in a jumpers bumper at Kempton.
That was her first run for over a year, so she is likely to have come on for it.
From a handicapping perspective, she is now on a very nice mark - 7lb lower than when mid division behind Dame de Compagnie, at Cheltenham, just over a year ago.
The issue however, is likely to be the price. An opening quote of 8/1 has already halved - and that doesn’t leave much margin for error.
Sail Away could be interesting on his UK debut for Dan Skleton - though again, the market is likely to offer the best advice.
Sebastapol could also be of interest - if a wind op has had the desired effect.
He was a good winner at Musselburgh, just over a year ago - and whilst he has disappointed on his 2 subsequent runs, he now finds himself on a mark just 2lb higher.
I’d be pretty sure that makes him well handicapped - if he is able to show his best.
The trip is a slight concern, as he’s only proven over the minimum. That said, when he was performing at his best, it looked as if he would benefit from an extra half mile.
2:40
There may only be 6 runners in this - and just 5 with a realistic chance - but it’s still a fascinating race…
Based on official ratings, Aso is very much the one to beat.
He is the joint highest rated horse in the race, with a rating of 158 - yet receives weight from all of his main rivals.
He also showed himself to be in top form, with a fine second to Two for Gold, on his most recent outing.
The issue with him, is the trip.
All of his best form is over 2m4f - and the few times he’s tried 3 miles, he’s appeared not to stay.
He may stay a little further now that he’s older - but that’s likely to be offset by him being a little slower !
If he is to win, then Charlie Deutch will need to produce a master class in conservative riding.
If he doesn’t get home, then Two for Gold looks the one most likely to take advantage.
He beat Aso by a neck at Warwick - but will be 9lb worse off tomorrow.
In theory, he has little chance of confirming the form - unless David Bass makes it a real stamina test and breaks Aso.
However, unlike Aso, Two for GOld is likely to improve for the increase in distance.
Ofcourse this isn’t just a 2 horse race.
Definitly Red has the same official rating as Aso - and won the race last year.
However, he is now 12 - and probably not quite as good as he used to be.
Lake View Lad could certainly be given a chance, if his rating of 157 could be believed.
He was pushed up to 162, on the back of beating Santini and Frodon in a farcical race at Aintree - however that was quickly adjusted down by 5lb - and I suspect he is still rated a few pounds higher than his ability warrants.
Cloth Cap is the final one worthy of consideration.
He was a spectacular winner of the Ladbroke trophy in November - and is now favourite for the Grand National.
However, I’m pretty sure that Aintree is the only race that matters for him - and I’ll be a little surprised if he is fully wound up for this contest.
Even if he is, he will have his work cut out on official ratings - accepting that trip/ground should be ideal for him…
3:15
It’s hard to look beyond The Shunter in this - despite the limited appeal of a 2/1 shot in a 14 runner handicap !
He was a really impressive winner of the Greatwood hurdle at Cheltenhams November meeting - and I find it quite surprising that he will get to run off a mark just 7lb higher tomorrow.
That was a stronger race than tomorrows - and I don’t think an additional 7lb would have stopped him from winning.
He’s only run once subsequently, when a staying third over fences at the Dublin Racing festival.
I suspect he could have won that race as well - given a more judicious ride - but whatever, it should ensure he is spot on tomorrow.
Faivoir has been installed second favourite, on the back of his win in a graded novice race at Haydock.
That was a good effort - but I’ll be a bit surprised if he is able to concede 8lb to The Shunter.
Outside of him, potential dangers look thin on the ground…
Hunters Call has been running well all season and finished fourth in the Greatwood. However he is only 5lb better off with The Shunter for a beating of over 6 lengths - and that shouldn’t be sufficient to reverse the form.
Tommys Oscar and Night Edition could both be more dangerous - though there is plenty of guesswork involved.
The former has only run 4 times over hurdles, so certainly has plenty of scope for improvement. However, whether he is up to this class, remains to be seen.
Night Edition finished runner up in the Boodles at last years Cheltenham festival - and will run from a mark 4lb lower tomorrow.
That makes him potentially very interesting - however, he has shown nothing in 2 runs this season, so will need to rediscover his form.
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