Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Newbury
1:50
Born Survivor 5 units win 14/1
Grand Sancey 2 units win 11/2
Doncaster
3:30
Chidswell 5 units win 13/2
Kelso
1:30
Do your Job 5 units win 16/1
Any News 3 units win 7/2
2:05
Sebastapol 5 units win 15/2
3:15
Night Exhibition 2 units win 10/1
Best bets
Newbury
1:50
Born Survivor 0.5pt win 14/1
Doncaster
3:30
Chidswell 0.5pt win 13/2
Kelso
1:30
Do your Job 0.5pt win 16/1
2:05
Sebastapol 0.5pt win 15/2
Market fragility, is often an issue for me - and it always
seem worse, on days like today, when there are no really big races…
I guess it makes sense - most of the markets for today races were only formed yesterday afternoon.
The various industry tipsters quickly identify the best bets - and the prices get cut.
Given time, the market would doubtless stabilise, and the prices of the less popular horses would drift.
However, there’s insufficient time for that to happen before issue my suggested bets, just after 9:00.
As a consequence, we get the worst of both worlds: too late for the early value - but too early for the drifts.
Suffice to say, I was again scrambling around at 9:00, trying to figure out which horses still represented ‘value’.
I had to change a few of my intended bets, simply because they had been backed to prices below what I would consider acceptable.
I’m sure some of them will drift back out - but that’ll happen too late for them to be official bets.
However, it shouldn’t be too late for them to be picked up on the Live thread…
Newbury
I did toy with making Present Man a Best bet in the 1:15 race.
I put him up ante-post at 6/1, on Monday - and despite the race holding up better than I expected, I would still make him a bet at that price.
However, whilst he was 6/1 on the exchanges at the time of issue, the best bookmaker price was 5/1.
That strikes me as about right, in a race where there are a few dangers - with Shantou Village (who is now the race favourite), the biggest danger of all…
I had hoped for a slightly bigger price on Born Survivor (at least 16/1), as this is a very strong race, but I still think it is worth taking a chance on him in the 1:50.
Simply, he is handicapped to win (and win well !) if he retains his old ability.
It’s hard to know whether that’s the case, as he’s not faced a suitable test for quite some time - but he does today.
Grand Sancey strikes me as the most likely of the market leaders.
I managed to back him at 8 on the exchange, which is a good price.
He’s worth saving for the Matrix, at anything above 5/1…
Doncaster
I didn’t spend too much time on the 2:20 race, once it became clear that 20/1 on Philippa Sue wasn’t going to be achievable.
In truth, I was guessing on her, so it was easy enough to let go.
Nothing else in the race held any appeal (at the prices).
I was quite disappointed not to be able to get involved with the 2:55 race, as I would have been quite happy to support either Ballywood or Zoffee.
I slightly favoured the former - and hoped to be able to get at least 9/2 (which was easily available last night). However, he was 3/1 at 9:00 this morning.
Zoffee was bigger, at 9/2, but I would have wanted a point more to get involved with him.
Maybe I was looking for too much in the prices - whatever, with split loyalties and minimal margin, it became a watching race…
Canelo just looks too obvious in the 3:30 - so much so, that I felt obliged to take him on !
The problem with him, is that for all he stands out, I suspect he’s not particularly well handicapped - and he’s also being targeted at the Grand National.
In short, he’s opposable - if you can find the right one…
Chidswell has excellent course form - and whilst he is getting on a bit, I suspect he will have been primed for the race.
At 13/2, he’s worth a risk to upset the fav in a relatively uncompetitive race…
Kelso
I was a little surprised to see Do your Job put in at 16/1 on the opening show for the 1:30 race - and even more shocked when he drifted to 25/1 !
In fairness, it is quite strong race - but I reckon he’s got as good a chance as most.
His form puts him in the mix - whilst his last run can be ignored, due to the ground.
A wind op is interesting - as is the fact that Brendan Powell has gone up to Kelso, for just the one ride (the easy option would have been to book Tom Scudamore).
He’s a value play, at any double figure price…
My Drogo is too short in the betting - and Any News strikes me a just about the most likely race winner.
He is worth covering on the Matrix…
As I mentioned in the preview, I like Mega Yeats best in the 2:05 - but there is plenty of guesswork and at 11/4, the layers are having a laugh !
I’ll be surprised if the winner comes from outside the top 4 in the betting, and Sebastapol looks the value call at 8/1.
He has top weight - but is a big horse, so should cope with that.
Whilst a wind op for a horse who has seemed to struggle a bit getting home, looks an understandable move…
Possibly my biggest disappointment today, is that I was not able to suggest Aso in the 2:40.
He was a 3/1 shot last night, on account of concerns about him staying the trip - and I would have been very keen to take a risk at that price.
However, he was backed in to 9/4 this morning, and I see minimal margin in that price…
I suspect he will drift again, close to the off, and at close to 3/1, I’ll be suggesting him on the Live thread.
Officially speaking however, he’s not a bet…
I think The Shunter will win the 3:15 - but I’m not prepared to make him a bet at 5/2.
In truth, he’s the kind of horse that will always be difficult to tip, because if connections fancy him, he will be backed, so you’ll not be able to get a price.
If he were to win today - and then win at Cheltenham - he would pocket a £100K bonus.
I suspect Emmit Mullins will have his sights firmly fixed on that prize !
The worry with him, is the trip. There is a chance he might find it too short - so you couldn’t chase down the price.
Instead, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on Night Edition, for the Matrix.
He’s not shown anything in 2 runs this season, but has become well handicapped as a result.
He’ll need to bounce back this afternoon, but that could well happen…
I guess it makes sense - most of the markets for today races were only formed yesterday afternoon.
The various industry tipsters quickly identify the best bets - and the prices get cut.
Given time, the market would doubtless stabilise, and the prices of the less popular horses would drift.
However, there’s insufficient time for that to happen before issue my suggested bets, just after 9:00.
As a consequence, we get the worst of both worlds: too late for the early value - but too early for the drifts.
Suffice to say, I was again scrambling around at 9:00, trying to figure out which horses still represented ‘value’.
I had to change a few of my intended bets, simply because they had been backed to prices below what I would consider acceptable.
I’m sure some of them will drift back out - but that’ll happen too late for them to be official bets.
However, it shouldn’t be too late for them to be picked up on the Live thread…
Newbury
I did toy with making Present Man a Best bet in the 1:15 race.
I put him up ante-post at 6/1, on Monday - and despite the race holding up better than I expected, I would still make him a bet at that price.
However, whilst he was 6/1 on the exchanges at the time of issue, the best bookmaker price was 5/1.
That strikes me as about right, in a race where there are a few dangers - with Shantou Village (who is now the race favourite), the biggest danger of all…
I had hoped for a slightly bigger price on Born Survivor (at least 16/1), as this is a very strong race, but I still think it is worth taking a chance on him in the 1:50.
Simply, he is handicapped to win (and win well !) if he retains his old ability.
It’s hard to know whether that’s the case, as he’s not faced a suitable test for quite some time - but he does today.
Grand Sancey strikes me as the most likely of the market leaders.
I managed to back him at 8 on the exchange, which is a good price.
He’s worth saving for the Matrix, at anything above 5/1…
Doncaster
I didn’t spend too much time on the 2:20 race, once it became clear that 20/1 on Philippa Sue wasn’t going to be achievable.
In truth, I was guessing on her, so it was easy enough to let go.
Nothing else in the race held any appeal (at the prices).
I was quite disappointed not to be able to get involved with the 2:55 race, as I would have been quite happy to support either Ballywood or Zoffee.
I slightly favoured the former - and hoped to be able to get at least 9/2 (which was easily available last night). However, he was 3/1 at 9:00 this morning.
Zoffee was bigger, at 9/2, but I would have wanted a point more to get involved with him.
Maybe I was looking for too much in the prices - whatever, with split loyalties and minimal margin, it became a watching race…
Canelo just looks too obvious in the 3:30 - so much so, that I felt obliged to take him on !
The problem with him, is that for all he stands out, I suspect he’s not particularly well handicapped - and he’s also being targeted at the Grand National.
In short, he’s opposable - if you can find the right one…
Chidswell has excellent course form - and whilst he is getting on a bit, I suspect he will have been primed for the race.
At 13/2, he’s worth a risk to upset the fav in a relatively uncompetitive race…
Kelso
I was a little surprised to see Do your Job put in at 16/1 on the opening show for the 1:30 race - and even more shocked when he drifted to 25/1 !
In fairness, it is quite strong race - but I reckon he’s got as good a chance as most.
His form puts him in the mix - whilst his last run can be ignored, due to the ground.
A wind op is interesting - as is the fact that Brendan Powell has gone up to Kelso, for just the one ride (the easy option would have been to book Tom Scudamore).
He’s a value play, at any double figure price…
My Drogo is too short in the betting - and Any News strikes me a just about the most likely race winner.
He is worth covering on the Matrix…
As I mentioned in the preview, I like Mega Yeats best in the 2:05 - but there is plenty of guesswork and at 11/4, the layers are having a laugh !
I’ll be surprised if the winner comes from outside the top 4 in the betting, and Sebastapol looks the value call at 8/1.
He has top weight - but is a big horse, so should cope with that.
Whilst a wind op for a horse who has seemed to struggle a bit getting home, looks an understandable move…
Possibly my biggest disappointment today, is that I was not able to suggest Aso in the 2:40.
He was a 3/1 shot last night, on account of concerns about him staying the trip - and I would have been very keen to take a risk at that price.
However, he was backed in to 9/4 this morning, and I see minimal margin in that price…
I suspect he will drift again, close to the off, and at close to 3/1, I’ll be suggesting him on the Live thread.
Officially speaking however, he’s not a bet…
I think The Shunter will win the 3:15 - but I’m not prepared to make him a bet at 5/2.
In truth, he’s the kind of horse that will always be difficult to tip, because if connections fancy him, he will be backed, so you’ll not be able to get a price.
If he were to win today - and then win at Cheltenham - he would pocket a £100K bonus.
I suspect Emmit Mullins will have his sights firmly fixed on that prize !
The worry with him, is the trip. There is a chance he might find it too short - so you couldn’t chase down the price.
Instead, I’d be more inclined to take a small risk on Night Edition, for the Matrix.
He’s not shown anything in 2 runs this season, but has become well handicapped as a result.
He’ll need to bounce back this afternoon, but that could well happen…
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