Feb 27th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Kempton

3:35
The Butcher Said 5 units win 11/1
Fingerontheswitch 2 units win 11/1
Clondaw Castle 2 units win 10/1
Eric le Rouge 1 unit win 20/1

Newcastle

3:35
Spingfield Fox 5 units win 12/1
Sams Adventure 2 units win 6/1

Best bets


Kempton

3:35
The Butcher Said 0.5pt win 11/1

Newcastle

3:35
Spingfield Fox 0.5pt win 12/1

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Newcastle

4:25
Last Goodbye 5 units win 14/1
Seemorelights 3 units win 3/1
Fortified Bay 2 units win 8/1

Fairyhouse

2:52
Tout est Permis 5 units win 13/2

Best bets


Newcastle

4:25
Last Goodbye 0.5pt win 14/1

Fairyhouse

2:52
Tout est Permis 0.5pt win 13/2

The shortage of suitable big races on terrestrial TV today, meant that I had to search a little further afield for some of the bets...

I restricted myself to class 3 or above - and found a couple (one in a grade 3 event).
I also waited until after 10:00 before I issued - but the prices still collapsed !

Obviously there is nothing I can do about it (other than not tip in those races !) - but it does show why I don’t bother during the midweek - and that delaying issuing, makes minimal difference…

I’m sure the prices will drift back out, as the day progresses - so hopefully none of you chased them down to low.

Anyway, here is the rationale behind todays bets….


Kempton

Gunsight Ridge strikes me as the most likely winner of the Kempton opener - but he is way too short at 5/2.
A case can be argued for Diocletian at 8/1 - though I do fear his inexperience over hurdles may catch him out.
I could have been tempted by Hometown Boy at around 20/1 - but not the 12/1 on offer.
The bottom line is there are plenty with chances, so I feel it’s a race best watched…

I just about favour GA Law in the 1:50 race - but there is minimal margin in a price of 7/4.
Coole Cody is definitely the value call in the race at 8/1. However, I’ll be a little surprised if he is good enough to win - and I don’t really want to be suggesting bets just because they are theoretical value !

Tritonic is opposable in the 2:25 - the question is, what with..?
Casa Loupi is the solid option - but the EW thieves are all over him - and 5/1, win only, isn’t really a value play.
Magarets Legacy and John Locke are both quite interesting - but there’s little in their early prices.
This is a race which I’d rather look at on the Live thread (as the market is likely to have polarised by then and some real value may exist)

I’d be happy to take on Atholl Street in the 3:00 - but it would be with either Cape Gentleman or Calico.
Again, there is minimal margin in the early prices of both - so I’d rather look later.
If I can get 4/1 on either, then I’ll be playing (I’ve already managed to do just that, on Calico).

I like The Butcher Said best, in the 3:35.
He’s potentially well handicapped and the combination of better ground and a wind op, could see him put in a much improved performance.
That said, it is a ultra competitive race - so spreading stakes around a few, makes sense.
What doesn’t make as much sense, is backing them with the bookmakers - as their enhanced place terms (which are of no interest to us), mean that prices are kept artificially low.
Fingerontheswitch was 12/1 with the bookmakers - but 18 on he exchanges; Clondaw Castle was 10/1 - but 14 on the exchanges; whilst Eric le Rouge was 20/1 - but 30 exchanges.
All 3 are worth covering for the Matrix - but if you do so, I would suggest picking off prices on the exchange.


Newcastle

Whilst I still like the chance of Salty Boy in the Eider (3:15) a 9:00 price of 4/1 was a joke !
Springfield Fox is a far better bet at 12/1.
He was sent off at just 8/1 for the much stronger Welsh National, 2 starts ago; whilst the fitting of first time cheek pieces is interesting for a horse who can race lazily.
Also interesting, is the booking of David Bass - who I believe is having his first ever ride for Tom George…
I’m not sure why Sam’s Adventure has drifted so much (7/1 is achievable) - it may be ground related, but at that price he is worth covering for the Matrix.

Hooligan was of some interest in the 3:50 - because the race looks so weak.
However, his price has been destroyed this morning - and at the currant 6/4, I’m more than happy to just watch.

I quite like Last Goodbye in the 4:25.
He caught my eye on his penultimate run at Doncaster - and whilst he has subsequently run poorly on the AW, I suspect that outing was just to keep him ticking over.
I expected him to be dismissed in the better - though an opening show of 33/1 yesterday evening, was still a bit of a shock !
At 16/1 this morning, he remained of interest - and whilst that became 14/1 with the NR, hopefully most of you managed to get close to that…
Seemorelights is just about the most likely race winner - so it’s worth saving on him for the Matrix: whilst Fortified Bay is also of potential interest - if perked up by the first time visor. He too is worth a saver, for the Matrix.


Fairyhouse

I’ve not given up hope of Petite Mouchoir reaching 5/2 in the 1:45 - but it was never going to happen before I issued the bets.
He’s one I’ll be looking out for on the Live thread.

In the 2:52 Tout est Permis is worth a small risk to upset the 2 Willie Mullins trained market leaders.
He should be bang there based on ratings - and will appreciate the quickening ground.
The issue is his current form - but apparently his training regime has been turned inside out to try and perk him up.
If it has worked, then he is capable of going very close (in fact, he is capable of winning !)