Todays Suggested bets
If there are any further bets for today, I will issue just after 10:00...
Matrix bets
Sandown
3:00
Ballydine 5 units win 16/1
Regal flow 3 units win 14/1
Best bets
Sandown
3:00
Ballydine 0.5pt win 16/1
Trying to suggest bets the past couple of days, has been very frustrating…
Obviously there have been the issues with the weather (which has resulted in uncertain ground conditions - and also led to numerous non runners) - but there have also been issues with bookmaker prices…
Part of it is undoubtedly caused by the various industry tipsters/podcasts, which seem to get released earlier and earlier, in an attempt to beat each other.
They cause plenty of market moves - particularly on horses where a strong case can be made via the form book (the kind I tend to look for !).
As a result, almost everything I’ve been interested in the past couple of days, has been priced up in the morning, lower than I would consider acceptable - bearing in mind the risks.
There were obviously the 2 yesterday: but there were 2 or 3 more today…
It’s not something I can do a lot about, whilst I am issuing bets in the morning.
The only options are to issue the night before (and beat everyone who messes up the prices !); or issue later (via the Live thread).
I realise the issuing early isn’t really an option - so I’m left with the Live thread (which doesn’t suit everyone).
I’ve no intention of changing anything in the short term: but suffice to say, if you are able, then using the previews to find bets the night before - or following the Live thread, when I run them - are both likely to result in more bets, and enable you to secure much better value than the official tips are currently able to do…
As for today: then I’ve issued just the one Best bet (supported by a Matrix bet).
When I found Ballydine yesterday, it was a 33/1 shot. However, it was tipped up last night on the Sporting Life site and again this morning on the GG.com site - and as a result, we had to take 16/1.
It’s a fine example of the problem I’ve described above !
The horse may well be 33/1 again, by the off - I certainly can’t see it going off at less than 16/1 - so it's likely that we’ve had to take the worst price available at any point.
Hardly a path for profitable betting !
Sandown
Destinee Royale is the most likely winner of the 1:15 - but far too short at 6/4.
In theory, Sir Jack Yeats or Speredek could represent a bit of value - but the former comes with limitations and the latter, with risks.
In short, it’s not a race that I can see an angle in to…
It’s a similar story with the 1:50.
Ibleo is the one to beat (his form is strong - even if it’s a string of second places !) - but there is no margin in a price of 2/1.
That said, it’s hard to find one to take him on with - so he may win by default.
Hollywoodien could be of interest on his comeback run - but there is plenty of guesswork required.
Galice Macalo and Do Your Job are the 2 of interest in the 2:25, against a short priced favourite in the shape of Metier.
The issue is simply that there is too much guesswork required, for the rewards on offer.
I was always going to be keen to get involved in the veterans final (3:00) - and I did think I’d found one which had gone under the radar in the shape of Ballydine.
He’s massively risky, in that he’s shown nothing for 2 years - but his form prior to that point gives him a big chance.
He’s also a course and distance winner, who should handle the likely soft ground.
Blinkers replacing cheekpieces; and a 5lb claimer in the saddle are subtle signs that the horse will be really going for it: whilst the fact that Charlie Longsdon has a good record in the race, is another positive.
He was definitely worth a risk at the 33/1 last night and still worth a risk at 25/1 this morning.
I hoped we’d at least get 20/1 - but a late NR pushed that down to 16/1.
I wouldn’t go lower than that - but I can see a little bit of value in that price.
It’s also worth covering Regal Flow for the Matrix.
He wants soft ground at least (ideally heavy) - so that’s a slight concern.
However, provided it’s soft enough I would expect him to run very well…
I like Monsieur Lecoq in the finale (3:35) - but a price of 5/2 is just too short…
He was double that price yesterday - and I would have happily got involved at that - but he’s now too short.
Gemirande is a danger (and now more tempting as a bet) - but I’m also a little fearful of Totterdown (who could literally do anything !).
Guard your Dreams and Highway One o two, both have chances - which is why I can’t get involved with Monsieur Lecoq at the current price (even if I think him the most likely winner).
Ayr
I don’t have a particularly good feel for the Ayr races - so it was always unlikely that I would get involved .
Evander feels too short at 2/1 in the 2:05 - but I don’t know what I’d take him on with.
Certainly, nothing jumps out to oppose him with.
If forced, I’d maybe go with Charmant - but it would be a guess…
I like Illegal Model best in the 2:40 - but he’s easy to pass on at 5/2.
Justatenner is more tempting as a bet, at 8/1 - but not sufficiently tempting to make him an official selection.
My expectation was that Late Romantic would be a non runner in the 3:15 - and my hope was that Sutton Manor would be priced up at around 10/1.
In that scenario, I would have taken a chance on Sutton Manor.
However, Late Romantic is running (which may be a tip in itself !) - and Sutton Manor is an 8/1 shot (currently).
I’ll re-look at the race - but the early angle I hoped might be there, isn’t !
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