Jan 2nd - Preview for Sandown & Ayr

 As Saturdays go, tomorrow is going to be a pretty quiet one… 

The abandonment of Hereford, means that there will be 3 NH meetings at most - and that’s assuming Cork passes an inspection - and that nothing untoward happens at either Sandown or Ayr !

From what I can gather Sandown should be OK - thought it’s not easy to work out how the ground will be riding.

The current going descriptions include the word ‘heavy’ on the hurdles course and ‘good’ on the chase course.
It was the same for the December meeting - so I’ll assume the ground will be similar (though I could be wrong !).

The televised races at Sandown are decent enough - and I would be hopeful they’ll yield a bet or two.

The ground at Ayr looks as if it could be desperate - and the fields aren’t overly inspiring.
I’ll preview the televised races - but the chance of me finding a bet there, is significantly less…


Sandown

1:15

Evander has been installed second favourite for this race - but he is likely to run at Ayr instead, in which case, there will be a fairly heft R4 to any early prices…
Assuming he doesn’t take part, then Destinee Royal is likely to be a very short priced favourite.
She hacked up on her chasing debut at Market Rasen in February - and although she has been raised 9b for that win, a mark of 121 still looks quite workable.
That said, she is impossible to assess - so whilst she might be very well handicapped, that’s not guaranteed to the case.
And at a likely price of less that 2/1, you don’t want to be taking too many risks…
There is no reason why Aintree my Dream won’t run well - but equally, the case for him winning, isn’t compelling (though I could certainly see him being placed).
Sir Jack Yeats ran a massive race last time at Aintree, when second to Beau Bay.
He jumped like a buck that day - and whilst he’s never run previously at Sandown, I could certainly see the course suiting him.
I would expect him to attack from the front and his slick jumping could very well get most of the field in trouble.
However, he is likely to be vulnerable to a finisher.
Dusky Lark showed promise at Exeter last month, on his comeback from a long absence.
He was well beaten that day, but his finishing effort was strong.
If he’s come on for the run (and not ‘bounced’), then he is handicapped to run a very big race.
Doitforthevillage is also handicapped to run a big race.
He ran as recently as Tuesday - and I felt he showed a bit of promise at Newbury, despite being beaten a long way.
I’m sure he will benefit from the step up in trip - but I don’t think that Sandown is really his course.
I also find it a little strange that he is being asked to run again so soon. I’m not sure how to read that - but I’m struggling to see it as a positive…

1:50

Ibleo has been installed the early favourite for this race, despite having finished runner up in his 3 most recent races.
In fairness, he’s not done a lot wrong - but that fact remains that he has risen 9lb in the ratings, without winning.
Tomorrows race may be run to suit him - but it will need to be, if he is to snap the losing streak…
I’m never keen on horses that have to carry over 12st - and that’s the case with Moonlighter.
He definitely has a chance based on form - but I would be concerned that his welter burden will ultimately prove too much.
Early du Lemo ran really well over course and distance, on his come back from injury in December.
He was just pipped by Darebin that day - but I would expect him to reverse the form with the winner, on 3lb better terms for a neck beating.
However, whether he is up to winning a race of this quality, remains to be seen.
San Benedetto is interesting.
It’s a long time since he’s tackled 2 miles - and a long time since he’s run in a 0-145 handicap.
He travelled nicely for the first half of the race at Newbury last time, so I suspect the basic speed remains.
He’s also become attractively handicapped - though that will be even more the case, if he doesn’t run well tomorrow !
It’s a similar story with Born Survivor.
I suggested him last time at Cheltenham - but he was badly hampered early in the race and that cost him any chance he had.
He’s 3lb lower tomorrow, so in theory has a better chance - though he would prefer quicker ground than he is likely to encounter…

2:25

Metier has been installed a very short prices favourite for this, on the back of just a couple of wins in novice events.
Apparently he clocked good numbers on both of those runs - and he was also a fair horse on the flat in Ireland (rated 90).
That said, I would struggle to take around even money about him in a race where it’s hard to assess the form of most of the runners.
In fact, if I was to get involved with the race, I would be most likely to side with Galice Macalo.
She really impressed me last time, when almost getting away from Benson.
I really rate the winner - and whilst he gave her 5lb and a beating that day, it was still a fair effort on her behalf.
It also proved that she can handle tomorrows likely conditions - and that won’t be the case for all of the runners.
On official ratings, she has a very good chance - but a price of around 5/2, in a race of this nature, is tight…
Do your Job and Shakem Up’Arry have both got claims - particularly the first named.
He hammered Cadzand at Ayr - and that one subsequently bolted up in a decent handicap at Kempton over the Christmas period.
If that form line is taken literally, Do your Job would be a 140+ rated animal - and if that is the case, he will go close tomorrow (assuming he handles the conditions).

3:00

This is a very open looking running of the veterans chase final.
Crosspark was the early favourite, on the back of 3 commendable runs this season.
However, like Ibleo earlier on the card., those 3 defeats have seen him rise 6lb in the ratings - and his consistency could well cost him tomorrow.
Valtor is potentially more interesting, as he is dropping down the weights.
He hacked up by 8 lengths on his UK debut at Ascot, 2 years ago - and now finds himself on a mark 3lb lower.
Ofcourse, he may be in decline (as most of these are) - but he could probably afford to be a little bit worse than he was - and still win !
Fingerontheswitch hit form around this time last year, when a win at Kempton was sandwiched between second places at Wincanton and Doncaster.
The Doncaster run was in the class 1 Sky bet chase - and he put in a huge effort that day, to finish second to OK Corral.
He never featured at Cheltenham on his final run of the season - but there was definite promise in his comeback run at Haydock behind Late Romantic.
He now finds himself on a mark just 3lb higher than at Doncaster - and if he’s back in top form, that should see him go close.
I was very keen on Regal Flow, when he ran at the course, early in December.
That was over a longer trip than he faces tomorrow - but he should be able to cope with a drop back to 3 miles.
The potential issue for him, is quickening ground.
That caught him out last month - and if conditions are the same tomorrow (which is what I expect), then it’s likely to be the same story.
Quicker ground would suit Theatre Guide - and I could certainly see him running well.
He’s been paced in the last 2 runnings of this race - and has shaped well on both outing this season.
The issue with him, is that his mark remains pretty much unchanged - and he is now 14 (so a veteran amongst veterans !).
Ballydine is the final one of interest.
He’s been horribly out of form for the last 2 years - though has only run 4 times during that period.
His rating has dropped 11lb - and a 5lb claimer takes over in the saddle tomorrow.
He also switches cheek pieces for first time blinkers - which is an interesting move.
You have to be quite creative to take any positives out of his recent form - but he showed a little promise on his seasonal debut and clearly didn’t handle the Haydock mud last time.
He has got a course and distance win to his name - and has only just turned 11 (so is a junior veteran !).
At a big price, he is certainly of some interest…

3:35

I suspect that the ground will be pretty desperate by the time this race is run - and an ability to handle such condition will take precedent over everything else.
Monsieur Lecoq handled similar conditions when hacking up in this race 2 years ago.
He will be running off a mark 23lb higher tomorrow - but that doesn't mean he is badly handicapped.
In fact, when he finished second to Not So Sleepy at Ascot, 12 months ago, he was racing off a mark 5lb higher.
That was top class handicap form - and there is no reason to think he has deteriorated since then.
With ticks in just about all of the boxes, he’s going to be a hard one to beat…
Highway one o two could be a danger, on his return to hurdles.
He was a very promising novice hurdler last season - but has failed to complete in his 2 chase starts this campaign.
There is a chance that this will merely be a confidence boosting run - and it’s hard to know just how well handicapped he is.
However, he should handle the ground - and he did look very good, 12 months ago.
Gemirande is even harder to assess, on the back of just 2 runs in the UK.
He was pulled up on the first of them (behind Guard Your Dreams at Bangor); but then won at Wetherby.
He was a touch fortunate that day (the favourite fell at the second last, when still going well) - but an opening mark of 122 looks quite attractive and he too should handle the ground.
Totterdown is the final one worthy of mention.
He’s a headstrong individual - so the fitting of cheek pieces seems a bizarre move (as they could further light him up).
However, he has good form over tomorrows course and distance, in heavy ground.
In fact he hacked up in November of last season, off a mark just 5lb lower.
He also ran well in this corresponding race, off a mark 7lb higher.
Liam Harrison will claim 7lb off him, potentially making him look even better handicapped.
The big question is whether he will last home - but I could certainly see him lasting longer than most will expect (which will make him a good IR play - at very least). 

Ayr

The Ayr card isn’t particularly inspiring - with small fields and heavy ground.
An ability to handle conditions is likely to be key - whilst tactics may also prove crucial in some of the races…

2:05

It seems quite significant that Evander is running in this race, as opposed to a similar one at Sandown (this looks the weaker of the two - but will require a lot more travel !).
He was an impressive winner at Doncaster last month - and even off a 9lb higher mark, should have a good chance of following up.
That was only the third chase of his life - so there should be plenty of scope for improvement.
The potential issue is the ground.
Presumably connections believe he will handle it, or they wouldn’t have made the long journey with him.
However, whilst he’s won on soft, he’s yet to race of the kind of heavy ground that he is likely to face tomorrow.
If it does prove too much for him, then Flowery could be the one to take advantage.
He will have no issue with conditions - and ran well on his seasonal return at this course, behind Drumconner Lad.
That’s fair form - and off the same mark tomorrow, he should again run well.
Jonniesofa and Clan Legend will both have to defy higher marks, for last time wins; whilst Charmant and Guitar Pete have both been out of form.
That said, Charmant is on a potentially dangerous mark, if he did happen to bounce back to form (whilst he should have no issue with conditions).

2:40

I like Illegal Model best in this - it’s just a bit disappointing to see him installed a relatively short priced favourite.
He ran quite well last time at Sandown, in a slightly better race.
He only managed to finish fifth (of 10) - but it was a competitive contest - and only the third race of his life.
I would expect him to improve for the experience; whilst the handicapper has also dropped him 1lb.
As conditions should be fine for him, it’s hard to see him not running well…
Nothing jumps out as a particular danger - though equally, few of the runners can be confidently dismissed.
Portstorm is interesting on his handicap debut - though it’s hard to know whether his opening mark of 121 is lenient.
Justatenner is only 1lb higher than when successful over course and distance, 3 runs back.
That was in a slightly worse race - but it did show that he will have no issue with tomorrows conditions.
I would certainly expect him to run well…

3:15

With Late Romantic expected to take up his engagement in the veterans final at Sandown, just the 4 runners are likely to go to post for this.
If that happens, then Takingrisks will be the only one in the handicap - which is a bit of a bizarre situation !
That’s because he is rated nearly 2 stone superior to his 3 other rivals - and as a consequence, he should probably win.
Certainly, he has plenty of back-class: including a win in the 2019 Scottish National - along with last seasons Rehearsal chase at Newcastle.
His most recent run was in this years renewal of that race, when he stayed on late to claim a creditable fourth place.
He will have no issue with tomorrows conditions - so provided it’s a true run race, then he should be hard to beat.
However, with only 4 runners - and non of them confirmed front runners - a true run race is far from guaranteed.
Sutton Manor caught my eye last time at Haydock, when he was travelling well until taking a nasty fall around half way.
It’s impossible to know how that will have affected him - but in a small field and with little pressure on his jumping, he should have the ideal conditions to get his confidence back.
He was a useful horse, when trained in Ireland - and if anywhere near his best, would have a class edge over both Manetti and Strong Economy.
Takingrisks is clearly the one to beat - but in receipt of 26lb, if he is able to dictate fractions, he could be of some interest.