The NH racing tomorrow is relatively low key, competing as it is, with the start of the UK flat turf season - and the Dubai world cup.
There are a few reasonable races at both Newbury and Kelso - and their low profile at least means that most of the industry tipsters are looking elsewhere !
However, it also means that the markets are likely to be very fragile !!
I was expecting the ground to be ‘good’ at both courses - but they had some rain at Newbury this morning and watching the racing this afternoon, it was definitely on the soft side.
I suspect things will be similar at Kelso (that’s what the forecasts say) - though as always, time will tell…
Hopefully I’ll be able to find one or two bets - that you all have a chance of getting on.
As a reminder, I will be issuing after 10:00 in the morning.
Here are my early thoughts…
Newbury
2:20
The card opens up with a veterans handicap chase for conditional riders - which is quite an interesting mix !
It’s likely that a few of the horses will be almost as old some of the jockeys !!
Usually the fields for veterans races consist of a number of gnarled old timers, who are working their way down the handicap.
The trick is to figure out which ones are deteriorating more slowly than their mark is dropping.
That’s the case with most of the runners in this field - apart from 2…
Dubai Angel and Tinker Hill Tommy have only run over fences, under rules, 6 times between them - which is a very unusual situation.
More than that, both arrive on the back of recent wins and big hikes in the handicap.
I fully expect them to head the market - and they could prove tough to beat.
However, there is also the chance that their profiles will see them get over-backed…
Most of the other runners can be given a chance based on their best form - which is often the case, in this kind of race…
Cyclop has been in good form this season - and his stable switch 2 runs back doesn’t seem to have unduly affected him.
He sets a fair standard for the race.
He finished well ahead of Orchardstown Cross when the pair clashed at Plumpton in January - and should confirm the form on 7lb worse terms, for 20+ lengths.
That said, Orchardstown Cross ran well in some reasonable races earlier in the season - and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him improve, back on spring ground.
Valadom finished third in a better race over the course, 3 weeks ago - and as with Cyclop, I would expect him to again run well.
Vice et Virtue really should reverse Doncaster form from December, with Twojayslad.
There was only 2 lengths between them that day - and Vice et Virtue will be 10lb better off tomorrow.
That said, whether it is good enough to see either home in front, is a different matter…
Dark Flame was well beaten in that race - and also on his only subsequent run at Sandown.
However, his handicap rating is tumbling as a consequence, and he will enjoy tomorrows better ground.
Based on old form, he would have a definite chance (though in fairness, that’s true for many of them !).
2:50
As with the previous race, there are a couple of runners in this race, with a different profile to the rest - and that’s likely to see them well backed - and also make them tough to beat…
Hudson de Grugy and Good Ball are both 4 year olds - and as such, receive an 8lb weight allowance from all of their rivals.
That strikes me as a lot - particularly at this time of year.
In terms of their form, then it’s hard to assess. However, that is true for most of the runners in the race…
Hudson de Grugy was a good winner last time, on his handicap debut at Sandown.
He hacked up by 17 lengths, looking far better than his opening mark of 122.
How much better, is hard to say - but the 8lb rating rise will effectively be offset by the age allowance, so he still could be nicely handicapped.
Good Ball will be making his handicap debut, having finished runner up to Gowel Road on his most recent start.
That one was sent off at just 12/1 for the County hurdle, a week ago - so the form looks quite strong.
Again, an opening mark of 131 doesn’t appear overly harsh - particularly when taking into account the age allowance.
Hooper looks best of the older horses.
He was narrowly beaten by Nightboattoclyro 3 runs back - and that one is now rated 16lb higher.
Hooper has won his 2 subsequent outings - but finds himself only 5lb higher.
That suggests he could be well handicapped.
One True King ran 2 big races at Cheltenham in the autumn - and whilst he’s not run quite so well on his 2 most recent starts, a return to better ground could easily see him bounce back to his best.
Half cases can be made for the other 4 runners - though the race does look more likely to be won by one of the runners covered above.
3:25
Whilst this is arguably the best NH race of the day (it’s the only class 1 race) - it really doesn’t appeal as a betting contest.
With 13 relatively unexposed mares - a number of whom are likely to have been targeted at the race - it’s very hard to assess with any confidence.
Nicky Henderson has a good record in the contest - and he is responsible for 4 of the runners.
Based on jockey bookings, Lilly Pedlar appears to be his best chance of success this year.
She will be making her handicap debut, following 3 runs in novice events.
She will need to take a step forward from her achievements thus far - but could easily do that.
In terms of form in the book, then Misty Whiskey just about sets the standard.
She finished a 4 length third in a grade 2 race at Sandown on her most recent outing. However, the race was run on desperate ground, so she will face a very different test tomorrow.
Little River Bay was sent off favourite that day - but disappointed badly and was pulled up.
I think it’s safe to ignore that run - but even doing so, she appears to have plenty on her plate, under top weight.
Marada looks quite interesting for Dan Skelton, on the back of a career best effort when winning at Huntingdon 3 weeks ago; whilst Kilmington Rose is interesting for Paul Nichols, making her handicap debut off a mark of just 114.
Rose of Arcadia is the early race favourite, primarily because she retains more potential than most of her rivals.
She is also owned by the Cheveley Park stud and their recent purchases suggest she is likely to end up a fair bit better than her mark of 120.
Bourbon Beauty looks the most interesting of those at big prices.
She’s shown some promise in 4 runs in novice hurdles - and her opening mark of 114 appears workable…
4:00
Only 6 will go to post for this - but a chance can be given to each of them…
Kalooki and Mr Muldoon are both still novices - and so have probably got the greatest scope for improvement.
Kalooki looked a really good recruit to chasing, when winning over the course on his seasonal debut in November.
He didn’t look quite so good next time, when beaten 7 lengths by Next Destination.
However the winner finished runner up at Cheltenham last week, so it was clearly still a decent effort.
Kalooki has been well beaten in his 2 subsequent races - but he raced with enthusiasm last time at Ascot, before weakening.
That was over 3 miles, so dropping him back in trip tomorrow looks a sensible move - whilst a mark of 142 is perfectly fair, based on the run behind Next Destination.
Mr Muldoon has won 2 of his 3 races this season - and appears to be improving.
That said, both races were at Sedgefield - and a 9lb hike for winning a 4 runner race last time, does seem a little harsh…
He will face much stronger opposition tomorrow - and it remains to be seen whether he is up to the task.
Grand Sancey was a big disappointment 3 weeks ago, when he was well fancied
for the Greatwood Gold cup, over tomorrows course and distance.
He never featured in the race and based on that run, he has no chance of beating Barton Knoll.
He was relatively unfancied (sent off at 28/1) for the same contest - but was still bang in contention, until weakening over the final couple of fences.
That was his first run for 3 months, so if he has come on from it, he should have a decent chance off a mark 1lb lower.
Espoir de Tellee bounced back to form on his most recent outing when winning at Warwick.
That was a fair race - and he won it well. He must therefore have a good chance tomorrow, off a mark just 4lb higher.
Boldmere is the final runner in the race.
He’s been out of form so far this season - but as a result he’s now not badly handicapped.
The fitting of first time blinkers is an interesting move - and back on better ground, dropped in trip, I would expect him to try and make all (though he may face competition for the lead from Kalooki).
Kelso
1:35
This is the first of 3 reasonable handicaps on the Kelso card…
Red Infantry has been installed the early favourite on the back of his last time out win in a similar handicap at Doncaster.
He was very game that day, bouncing back to form under a front running ride and holding on by a head.
However, he got a 5lb rating rise for the win - whilst the 5lb claimer who rode him that day, won’t be on board tomorrow.
In short, he’ll have his work cut out if he is to double up…
Kittys Light was a fast finishing third in the Badger beers chase at Wincanton in November.
He’s not been since much since then - but that’s because he has a preference for decent ground.
A couple of runs in bumpers, plus a recent spin over hurdles, should ensure he is spot on for his return to fences tomorrow.
Off a mark just 3lb higher than at Wincanton, he looks the one to beat…
Claud and Goldie won well over the course last time - but a 5lb rise means that he’s now off a career high mark.
As a 12 year old, that’s a big ask…
Shantou Village was backed as if defeat was out of the question last time, in a veterans chase at Newbury. However, he unseated his rider at the fifth fence…
Brian Hughes takes over in the saddle tomorrow - and someone clearly believes he is very well handicapped.
If he can get round safely, he should go very close.
Dandy Dan is another who wants decent ground - and he’s not been seen since November.
However, I very much doubt his fitness will be an issue - and it’s interesting that he’s the only runner on the card for both Kim Bailey and David Bass.
If he comes in for market support, I’d expect him to run a big race.
Crixus’s Escape is the outsider of the field - but would be of interest if the recent wind op and first time tongue tie, have the desired effect…
2:05
I’d be reasonably happy to split this race in two: those carrying more than 11st and those carrying less - and if I did that, then I’d much rather be with the low weights !
Generally, the market would agree with me - the exception being market leader Cap de Nord.
It is true that he is quite attractively handicapped, based on his recent chase form - however, he’s only ‘quite’ well handicapped - plus he’s been very busy over the past few months.
That will catch up with him, sooner rather than later - and coupled with the change in discipline, he could be worth taking on…
Mr Harp is one of the interesting light weights.
He ran a good second in a Pertemps qualifier at Warwick on his penultimate outing - before filling the same spot behind Alaphilippe at Haydock, last time.
The quality of the opposition he faced in both of those races, was better than he will be facing tomorrow - and off a mark of 126, he must have a big chance.
Doyen Breed has run well in 3 lower grade handicaps this season - winning one and finishing runner up in the other 2.
He’s on an upward curve and could well be competitive in this higher grade.
Whilst Sultans Pride won comfortably at Doncaster last time - and could still be fairly handicapped off a mark 6lb higher.
Kaizer and Taxmeifyoucan, have been virtually dismissed in the betting - but I think both can be given a chance.
They clashed at Musselburgh in February - and Taxmeifyoucan came out on top by a neck.
Kaizer looked to have that race won that day, until being run down in the shadows of the post and should have every chance of gaining his revenge with a 1lb pull in weights.
That said, Taxmeifyoucan will be ridden by a 10lb claimer tomorrow - so that may swing things back in his favour !
To an extent, you pay your money and make your choice…
2:40
I suspect that Dubai Days will be withdrawn from this race, as she ran (unplaced) at Musselburgh this afternoon…
Regardless, Across the Line looks very much the one to beat on his handicap debut for the Skeltons.
He was a good second at Doncaster on his most recent start - and for all it’s not easy to get a handle on the value of that form, an opening mark of 126 doesn’t look overly harsh.
It’s interesting that Harry is riding at Kelso rather than Newbury (where he would have had a good ride in the mares hurdle) - and it strikes me that Across the Line is the main reason for that.
I suspect he will prove had to beat…
Without him in the race, I would be quite keen on Hasanabad.
He caught my eye on his penultimate outing at Newbury - and then ran well on ground that wouldn’t have suited, in the Imperial Cup.
Back on good ground, I would expect him to run a big race - and it adds to his case that he is Sean Bowens only ride on the card.
Tommys Oscar has been in good form recently - and should again run well: by contrast, Christopher Wood now looks a tough high in the handicap, following his win at Musselburgh and is likely to need to drop a little in the weights before he picks up the winning thread again.
In theory, Cracking Destiny could be very well weighted, on only his second ever run in a handicap hurdle.
He finished fifth in the Grade 2 Old Roan at Aintree, in October, off a mark of 138 - but will run off a mark of 122 tomorrow.
That means he is potentially very well handicapped - if he is tuned on his return from an absence.
However, it is more likely that he will be using this race as a pipe opener before returning to fences next time.
He should be watched in the betting pre-race - and if he’s weak, watched in the race, with his next run in mind…
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