Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Newbury
2:20
Dark Flame 3 units win 14/1
Tinkers Hill Tommy 2 units win 5/1
Dubai Angel 2 units win 9/2
3:25
Bourbon Beauty 1 unit win 28/1
4:00
Espoir de Teillee 5 units win 9/2
Kelso
2:05
Taxmeifyoucan 5 units win 22/1
Sultans Pride 2 units win 8/1
Best bets
Newbury
4:00
Espoir de Teillee 0.5pt win 9/2
Kelso
2:05
Taxmeifyoucan 0.5pt win 22/1
Todays racing has a very different feel to it…
I could tell yesterday, that the early prices were just ‘guesses’ from the bookmakers - and it was little surprise to see that a number of the markets had been turned on their heads, by this morning.
The issue with that, is that it makes it impossible for me to figure out what I want to put up, until virtually the last moment.
Even then, I have little confidence that the prices won’t collapse as soon as I issue - and that’s certainly what happened with Taxmeifyoucan.
There is good reason why I only tip in the biggest races !
The other issue I faced today, was uncertainty with the ground.
I was pretty confident that I’d be dealing with ‘good’ ground at both courses: however there was rain yesterday - and the going certainly looked to be on the soft side at Newbury.
I can’t be sure how it will ride at Kelso - but the doubt has stopped me from suggesting as many bets as I had originally intended.
I’ve still ended up with a couple of Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.
Here’s the rationale behind them…
Newbury
I was pretty keen on taking a risk on Dark Flame in the opener, as I’m confident he has been layed out for the race.
However, he wants good ground - so the rain won’t have helped him: whilst his price crashed from 33/1 last night to 12/1 this morning !
In the circumstances, I felt obliged to back off and just cover him on the Matrix.
Additionally, I want to cover both Tinkers Hill Tommy and Dubai Angel, as they have attractive profiles and are slightly better prices than I expected.
Hopefully one of the three will come good (ideally, Dark Flame !)
Hooper has been taken out of the 2:50 on account of the softening ground.
However, the 3 I fancy most, still fill the top 3 places in the betting.
At the odds (5/1) Hudson de Grugy is moderately tempting - though in truth, it’s not a race I feel overly strongly about and I am therefore happy enough to just watch.
I also don’t feel overly strongly about the 3:25.
I’m certainly not drawn to any of the market leaders - and would rather taken a tiny risk on Bourbon Beauty, for the Matrix.
I really don’t understand why she is such a big price - and whilst she isn’t a confident bet, I think she has as good a chance as most of the runners, and therefore represents a bit of ‘value’ at the price on offer.
The defection of Barton Knoll from the 4:00 (again, on account of the ground), has persuaded me to make Espoir de Teillee a Best bet.
They were the pair I was most keen on - so the fact that only one of them is now running, has encouraged me to commit !
Kalooki could prove hard to beat, if he gets an uncontested lead - but hopefully, Boldmere will stop that from happening !
Grand Sancy was just too disappointing last time; whilst Mr Muldoon has been harshly treated for winning a poor race (though he could be of some interest, if his price continues to drift)
Kelso
I like Dandy Dan best in the 1:35 - but he wants decent ground (which he may or may not get) - and has been backed to the point where there is minimal value.
At 6/1, I would have gone with him - but not at 9/2…
Shantou Village is a big danger, if the ground is good; whilst Kittys Light is the other one who I feel has a very good chance.
Red Infantry was 3/1 fav in the early betting last night - but is now a 12/1 shot !
As I said in the introduction, that level of price volatility makes it very hard to get a handle on anything (arguably, he’s not a bad bet at the current price !)
Cap du Nord is another one who has been a massive drifter overnight, in the 2:05.
He was 7/2 on the opening show - but is now 8/1.
Again, it could be argued that he’s a fair bet at that price - though I would still prefer to side with those at the bottom of the handicap.
Mr Harp and Doyen Breed have found their way to the head of the market - and I can’t argue with that.
However, at their current prices, they don’t represent value.
Sultans Pride does at 8/1 - and he is worth covering for the Matrix.
However, the best bet in the race, is Taxmeifyoucan.
He is closely matched with Kaiser on Musselburgh form - but I think the stiffer Kelso track will play more to his strengths.
I also like the booking of 10lb claimer, Peter Coleman.
He’s had very few rides over the winter - but had a couple yesterday (to get his eye back in !) - and this one today.
He really should beat Kaiser - and yet is twice the price.
His last 2 runs can be ignored because the trips were too short. Back over 3+ miles today, I would expect him to run very well - and think he has a fair chance of winning what looks a very winnable race…
If the ground had been ‘good’, I would have taken a risk on Hasanabad in the 2:40.
I think he is capable of winning off his current mark - and the fact he is Sean Bowens only ride on the card, adds to his case.
However, I do think he would much prefer decent ground - so with a question mark over the conditions, I can’t get involved at the moment (though I may do so, on the Live thread).
Whatever, Across the Line would be a worry; whilst I’m quite surprised to see the support for Tommys Oscar (who I could see running well - but who I felt was beatable).
On balance there just feels a bit too much doubt, to be getting involved early…
I could tell yesterday, that the early prices were just ‘guesses’ from the bookmakers - and it was little surprise to see that a number of the markets had been turned on their heads, by this morning.
The issue with that, is that it makes it impossible for me to figure out what I want to put up, until virtually the last moment.
Even then, I have little confidence that the prices won’t collapse as soon as I issue - and that’s certainly what happened with Taxmeifyoucan.
There is good reason why I only tip in the biggest races !
The other issue I faced today, was uncertainty with the ground.
I was pretty confident that I’d be dealing with ‘good’ ground at both courses: however there was rain yesterday - and the going certainly looked to be on the soft side at Newbury.
I can’t be sure how it will ride at Kelso - but the doubt has stopped me from suggesting as many bets as I had originally intended.
I’ve still ended up with a couple of Best bets on the day - plus a few more for the Matrix.
Here’s the rationale behind them…
Newbury
I was pretty keen on taking a risk on Dark Flame in the opener, as I’m confident he has been layed out for the race.
However, he wants good ground - so the rain won’t have helped him: whilst his price crashed from 33/1 last night to 12/1 this morning !
In the circumstances, I felt obliged to back off and just cover him on the Matrix.
Additionally, I want to cover both Tinkers Hill Tommy and Dubai Angel, as they have attractive profiles and are slightly better prices than I expected.
Hopefully one of the three will come good (ideally, Dark Flame !)
Hooper has been taken out of the 2:50 on account of the softening ground.
However, the 3 I fancy most, still fill the top 3 places in the betting.
At the odds (5/1) Hudson de Grugy is moderately tempting - though in truth, it’s not a race I feel overly strongly about and I am therefore happy enough to just watch.
I also don’t feel overly strongly about the 3:25.
I’m certainly not drawn to any of the market leaders - and would rather taken a tiny risk on Bourbon Beauty, for the Matrix.
I really don’t understand why she is such a big price - and whilst she isn’t a confident bet, I think she has as good a chance as most of the runners, and therefore represents a bit of ‘value’ at the price on offer.
The defection of Barton Knoll from the 4:00 (again, on account of the ground), has persuaded me to make Espoir de Teillee a Best bet.
They were the pair I was most keen on - so the fact that only one of them is now running, has encouraged me to commit !
Kalooki could prove hard to beat, if he gets an uncontested lead - but hopefully, Boldmere will stop that from happening !
Grand Sancy was just too disappointing last time; whilst Mr Muldoon has been harshly treated for winning a poor race (though he could be of some interest, if his price continues to drift)
Kelso
I like Dandy Dan best in the 1:35 - but he wants decent ground (which he may or may not get) - and has been backed to the point where there is minimal value.
At 6/1, I would have gone with him - but not at 9/2…
Shantou Village is a big danger, if the ground is good; whilst Kittys Light is the other one who I feel has a very good chance.
Red Infantry was 3/1 fav in the early betting last night - but is now a 12/1 shot !
As I said in the introduction, that level of price volatility makes it very hard to get a handle on anything (arguably, he’s not a bad bet at the current price !)
Cap du Nord is another one who has been a massive drifter overnight, in the 2:05.
He was 7/2 on the opening show - but is now 8/1.
Again, it could be argued that he’s a fair bet at that price - though I would still prefer to side with those at the bottom of the handicap.
Mr Harp and Doyen Breed have found their way to the head of the market - and I can’t argue with that.
However, at their current prices, they don’t represent value.
Sultans Pride does at 8/1 - and he is worth covering for the Matrix.
However, the best bet in the race, is Taxmeifyoucan.
He is closely matched with Kaiser on Musselburgh form - but I think the stiffer Kelso track will play more to his strengths.
I also like the booking of 10lb claimer, Peter Coleman.
He’s had very few rides over the winter - but had a couple yesterday (to get his eye back in !) - and this one today.
He really should beat Kaiser - and yet is twice the price.
His last 2 runs can be ignored because the trips were too short. Back over 3+ miles today, I would expect him to run very well - and think he has a fair chance of winning what looks a very winnable race…
If the ground had been ‘good’, I would have taken a risk on Hasanabad in the 2:40.
I think he is capable of winning off his current mark - and the fact he is Sean Bowens only ride on the card, adds to his case.
However, I do think he would much prefer decent ground - so with a question mark over the conditions, I can’t get involved at the moment (though I may do so, on the Live thread).
Whatever, Across the Line would be a worry; whilst I’m quite surprised to see the support for Tommys Oscar (who I could see running well - but who I felt was beatable).
On balance there just feels a bit too much doubt, to be getting involved early…
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