There’s a fair meeting at Ascot tomorrow afternoon - even if the ITV cameras aren’t covering it.
There are three class 2 races on the card - but one of them has only attracted 3 runners.
As a consequence, I’ve previewed the other 2 - along the the class 3 race that splits them.
Ascot is just about the best course in the country, for providing updates on the going and the weather conditions - and with no rain forecast in the next 24 hours, I don’t expect there to be a change from the current description of ‘good’…
Ascot
2:45
Juvenile handicap hurdles are never the easiest puzzles to solve - and I doubt this one will be any different !
I expected Siroco Jo to be installed favourite, on the back of his win at Newbury, 3 weeks ago.
He was quite impressive that day, leaving behind the form of his UK debut at Kempton.
The assumption was that the improvement had been brought about by him racing on a much quicker surface - and if that was the case, he could take a bit of beating tomorrow…
Iron Heart is disputing early favouritism with him, on the back of a win in an all-aged handicap at Newbury on the same day.
There must be a chance that the 4 year old weight allowance helped him win that race - and of the pair, I would favour Siroco Jet.
Tinahalla carries top weight in tomorrows race - but he probably deserves to do so
He has form which links him in with Sage Action - and that one ran really well in the Boodles at Cheltenham.
Clearly Tinahalla is vulnerable to a more lightly weighted opponent - but I would still expect him to run a big race.
First Impression hasn’t run for over 4 months - but presumably that’s because he has been kept away from winter ground.
All 3 of his runs in the autumn very decent - and if he returns in similar form, he could prove hard to beat.
Most of the others can be given a chance of sorts - but 2 of particular interest at bigger prices, at Herbier and Global Agreement.
The former is closely linked to Siroco Jo, on their run at Newbury.
Based on that form there should be little between them - though Siroco Jo does have greater scope.
Global Agreement ran second to Hudson de Grugy, at Sandown last time - and the winner franked that form with a creditable run at Newbury this afternoon.
Global Agreement was dropped 5lb for the run - and whilst he was beaten a long way, it was desperate ground - and he loomed up looking to have every chance at the second last.
I could certainly see him out running his likely big price…
3:20
Awake at Dawn has been installed the early favourite for this, following his good run last time, when second to the revitalised My Way.
The winner was impressive that day - but there was a chance he was a very well handicapped horse, so Awake at Dawn probably lost little in going down by just a couple of lengths.
Awake at Midnight was raised 3lb for his efforts - but he has long looked as if he could be a fair bit better than his mark, so if he can build on that run, he could prove hard to beat.
Another Crick was very progressive in the 2018-19 season - but then had a couple of years on the sidelines.
He reappeared with a good run over hurdles in December - and backed that up when running fourth in a decent race at Warwick in February.
He again ran well at Newbury, 3 weeks ago - and provided he can again run to that level of form, he must have every chance tomorrow.
Highest Sun should be capable of winning off his current mark.
He’s been stepped up in trip for his 2 most recent outings - but that hasn’t really worked out.
Prior to that, he ran a very creditable fourth to Cap de Nord at Newbury.
That was over 2m6f - just a furlong further than he races over tomorrow.
If he can cope with the slightly shorter trip on slightly quicker ground, then he should go well.
Marracudja is stepping up in trip, having failed to really fire this season.
He did ‘win’ last time - but that was a walk over, so doesn’t really count !
Prior to that, he had come up short in a series of races - and unless the extra distance brings about improvement, it’s likely to be the same again tomorrow.
Defi Sacre has had a busy season - but has kept his form well.
He’s been running with credit against some useful horses - and if the step up in trip tomorrow unlocks a little improvement, he is another who could go close.
3:55
Unbelievably, this is the fifth leg of the 2021 veterans series - just where does the time go !
Whilst I can understand Crosspark heading the market based on his consistency - I’ll be a little surprised if he wins.
He’s a horse who has paid the price for a series of solid efforts this season - and he now finds himself 8lb higher than when runner up to Present Man at Chepstow in October.
By contrast, the winner will be running off the same mark tomorrow - I don’t think I need to tell you which horse should come out on top..!
That said, Present Man was a big disappointment on his most recent start, when unplaced at Newbury.
He looked to have ideal conditions that day - but barely lifted a hoof and ended up well beaten.
However, he was very weak in the market - so maybe something wasn’t quite right...
If he’s back on top form tomorrow, he should be the one to beat.
Activial has been installed the early second favourite following a return to form last time at Doncaster.
If he can build on that, then he should go close - though it’s a long time since he won (well over 2 years).
It’s double that since Singlefarmpayment won ! - and whilst he is potentially very well handicapped, he does appear to be in terminal decline.
It’s hard to understand why that is - but equally, it’s hard to argue with a series of progressively more disappointing runs.
It’s a similar story with West Approach.
He too seems to be in steep decline - and it would be very hard to support either of them, without first seeing at least a glimmer…
Royal Vacation showed nothing on his seasonal debut at Wincanton last month - but the handicapper is rushing him down the ratings - and he is now potentially very well handicapped.
That’s often the case for horses in these races - but if he does happen to bounce back to form, then he’s quite capable of winning this race.
No comments:
Post a Comment