Sunday, 28 March 2021

Mar 28th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Ascot

2:45
Global Agreement 1 unit win 25/1

3:20
Defi Sacre 5 units win 5/1

3:55
Present Man 5 units win 5/1
Royal Vacation 2 units win 10/1


Best bets

Ascot

3:20
Defi Sacre 0.5pt win 5/1

3:55
Present Man 0.5pt win 5/1
 



Compared to most of the days I deal with, today was relatively straightforward…

Just the 3 races to look at - with 2 of them the kind of races I thrive on (decent handicap chases, with reasonable sized fields).

I spent quite a bit of time going through both of the races of main interest - but it’s far more feasible to do that, when you’ve only got 14 runners to look at !

I can’t guarantee that I will have dropped on a winner - but I’m reasonably hopeful.

Here’s the rationale behind the bets…


Ascot

I re-watched videos of the main protagonists in the 2:45 - but I wasn’t overly taken by any of them.
It’s quite possible that one of them will improve for a move into handicap company - but I wouldn’t know which one it will be !
The form of Global Agreement’s run at Sandown is reasonable - and he did travel nicely until tiring, that day.
He’s no more than a hopeful suggestion - but at 25/1, I think he’s worth a small bet for the Matrix.

There are question marks over most of the runners in the 3:20 race.
Another Crick is the right favourite - and the one to beat. However, I can see Defi Sacre improving for todays step up in trip.
He tried it earlier in the season, in a strong race at Newbury - but fell at the third last (when still going well).
He’s been unlucky to find himself up against a series of tough opponents this season - and this race doesn’t look quite as strong.
I don’t think he has much in hand of his mark - but he probably doesn’t need to have (particularly if the step up in trip brings about some improvement).
Highest Sun is the other potential danger - but I think todays trip could be a bit short for him.

There are plenty I’m happy to oppose in the Veterans chase (3:55) - in fact, there are only 2 I’m really interested in supporting !
You’ve got to be prepared to forgive Present Man a poor run last time at Newbury - but I am !
He maybe needed the outing that day, after 3 months on the side-lines.
If that is the case, he will take a lot of beating today, under ideal conditions.
I can also see him getting an uncontested lead - and if that happens, I think he’ll win.
The one potential danger is Royal Vacation.
He’ll need to bounce back to form - but if he does, he’s sufficiently well handicapped to win.
He’s definitely worth covering for the Matrix.

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