Day 4 of the Cheltenham festival - and I don’t know about you, but I could do with a break !
The racing doesn’t look as good on Friday as it does on Thursday - and I doubt I’ll be able to find as many bets.
Things certainly tail off a bit after the Gold Cup, so if we’re not ahead by then, it could be a long afternoon !
Here’s the early thoughts…
Cheltenham
1:20
As has been the case for most of the novice events this week, there are only 3 who warrant serious consideration in this…
Zanahiyr has been favourite for the race, since destroying Saint Sam at Fairyhouse in November.
At the time Saint Sam was considered Willie Mullins best juvenile - but Zanahiyr beat him by 14 lengths.
He then followed up by winning the Knight Frank juvenile hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Saint Sam again finished well behind him that day - along with Jeff Kidder.
As the pair of them fought out the finish to the Boodles juvenile handicap on Tuesday, it suggests the form is strong.
Zanahiyr hasn’t been seen since then - but I suspect that was always the plan.
The application of a first time tongue tie, is a slight concern - but he still looks the one to beat.
Tritonic briefly deposed him at the head of the market, following a really impressive win in the Adonis hurdle at Kempton last month.
He’s a very useful flat horse (rated 99) - and it looks like he’s going to be just as good over hurdles.
The drying ground should suit him and he’s a worthy opponent for Zanahiyr.
So too is Quilixios.
He was very impressive when wining the grade 1 Spring juvenile hurdle, at the Dublin Racing festival.
He beat Saint Sam by over 5 lengths that day, which suggests he’s not vastly inferior to Zanahiyr.
However, when the pair were trained by Gordon Elliott, Zanahiyr was considered the best - and by some margin.
Whilst switching to Henry de Bromhead is unlikely to be much of a negative for Quilixios, I can’t see it bringing about significant improvement…
It’s really hard to see anything outside the top 3 in the betting, getting involved.
Adagio is next in the market - but he really doesn’t look good enough.
And whilst it’s interesting that Willie Mullins has chosen this race for the debut of Haut en Couleurs, it probably just suggests that he’s not got a particularly strong hand of juveniles…
1:55
This years County hurdle doesn’t look particularly easy to solve ! (like it ever is !)
Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have both got excellent records in the race (they;ve won the last 6 renewals between them), so it’s not too surprising that representatives from their stables head the betting.
Both Ganapathi and Third Time Lucki, are unexposed novices, who could be a fair way ahead of the handicapper.
Ganapathi’s most recent run was in a grade 1 event at the Dublin Racing festival, won by Gaillard du Mesnil.
Ganapathi finished well beaten that day - but it’s quite possible that he simply didn’t stay the 2m6f trip.
Dropped back to the minimum distance tomorrow, he could easily put up a much improved effort.
Third TIme Lucki disappointed on his most recent run at Musselburgh - and he will need to bounce back from that.
However, he ran second to For Pleasure over course and distance in November - having been given far too much to do.
For Pleasure really franked that form on Tuesday, when finishing third in the Supreme hurdle.
If that can be taken at face value, Third time Lucki will be hard to beat.
Outside of the main two, then plenty can be given half chances, though nothing particularly jumps out.
Eclair de Beaufeu would have gone close to winning this race under a more judicious ride, a couple of year ago. That was off a 3lb lower mark than he races off tomorrow…
He also ran an excellent second on the Grand Annual last season - and that was off a mark 11lb higher !
Suffice to say, he is handicapped to run a big race.
Fifty Ball finished runner up in the Betfair hurdle on his most recent outing - and should again run well, off a 4lb higher mark; whilst Milkwood is one that I’ve had on my radar for a while - though he ran disappointingly in the same race - and for no obvious reason.
Petite Mouchoir and Le Patriote are old timers who are quite interesting, off realistic marks.
Both ran in last seasons Champion hurdle - with Petite Mouchoir finishing an honourable fifth.
This is quite a step down in grade - and it’s interesting that both will be partnered by 7lb claimers.
Great minds, maybe…
2:30
After a series of high class novice races so far this week - things take a bit of a downward turn in this race !
It’s often the weakest of the 3 novice hurdles run at the festival - but that seems particularly the case this year.
The first and second favourites are Stattler and Fakiera - but they couldn’t get within hailing distance of Gaillard du Mesnil last time - and he was comprehensively put in his place by Bob Olinger in the Ballymore on Wednesday.
Ofcourse they could massively improve for the step up in trip tomorrow - and Fakiera was certainly staying on strongly at the end of that race.
However, my feeling is that they don’t set an insurmountable standard - suggesting the race could be quite open.
Barbados Bucks is next in the market - but he just won a modest race at Kempton last time.
He was quoted at 50/1 for this race, immediately afterwards - but has subsequently been strongly supported.
Part of that will be down to his breeding - as he is closely related to the legendary Big Bucks.
However, in terms of actual performances on the track, he still has a lot to prove.
Adrimal and Alaphilippe arguably have the best form in the book, as winners of grade 2 events.
Both put up good performances in doing so, with Alaphilippe coasting home at Haydock and Adrimal showing real battling qualities to win at Warwick.
Both could easily improve again - and if they do so, they would have every chance.
The Cob is another who won a grade 2 event last time.
He bolted up at Doncaster when completely unfancied.
There seemed no fluke about his win - though he probably didn’t beat very much.
N’Golo and Streets of Doyen are the final 2 worthy of mention.
N’Golo won a grade 3 over 2 miles in November - but only by virtue of his staying power.
He’s been woefully outpaced on 3 subsequent runs over the minimum trip and it’s no surprise to see him significantly stepped up in distance tomorrow.
Streets of Doyen won over tomorrows course and distance in October - but then wasn’t seen until last month.
That was in a grade 2 race over 2 miles - a distance which he predictably found too short.
Stepped back up to 3 miles tomorrow, I would expect him to put up a much better effort.
3:05
It’s quite amazing to think that Al Boom Photo will become a triple Gold cup winner, if he is successful tomorrow.
That will put him in an elite band.
Only Best Mate (my favourite ever horse !) has achieved the feat in modern times: and before that, you have to go back to Arkle, Cottage Rake and Golden Miller.
They are all equine greats - not a term I’d associate with Al Boom Photo !
In truth, he’s going to have his work cut out to even confirm the form with the horses he beat last year.
He scrambled home by a neck from Santini, 12 months ago - and in a first time visor tomorrow, the runner up has a real chance of reversing the form.
Whatever, he certainly shouldn’t be 4 times the price of the favourite.
Lostintraslation was just a length further back in third that day - and jumping the last, looked the most likely winner.
He’s been disappointing this season - and is beginning to run out of excuses - but I wouldn’t want to be laying him at 33/1, back on suitably quick ground.
Ofcourse this is not just a 3 horse race - as there are plenty of new kids on the block, who are likely to really put it up to the old guard.
Chief amongst them is Santini’s stablemate, Champ.
He’s a very talented horse, who’s win in last years RSA, had to be seen to be believed !
He got up in the shadows on the post to deny Minella Indo.
There is nothing between the pair of them, based on that run - but Minella Indo is now 3 times the price of Champ.
Minella Indo was second favourite for this race until he fell at Leopardstown over Christmas.
A subsequent disappointing run in the Irish Gold cup - coupled with Rachael Blackmore deserting him for A Plus Tard, now means that he’s drifted out to quite an attractive price.
He’s a very talented horse - who is young enough to still be improving - and has a first and second placing to his name, from the last 2 festivals.
A Plus Tard has also got excellent festival form.
He hacked up in the novice handicap 2 years ago: before finishing a very close third in the Ryanair last year.
However, he took his form to a new level, when winning the John Durkan at Leopardstown over Christmas.
That was his first run over 3 miles and he relished it: staying on strongly to deprive Kemboy close home.
He’s still only 7 - and therefore has plenty of scope for improvement - particularly over the longer trip.
I think he’s the one to beat - though there isn’t much margin in his current price…
Royal Pagaille is the final one of interest - and he’s really fascinating contender.
He hacked up in a competitive handicap at Kempton over Christmas off a mark of 140 - and then did exactly the same again at Haydock a month later, off a mark 16lb higher !
He’s now rated 166 - which puts him within a few pounds of the main protagonists - and clearly on a steep upward curve.
His form lines are completely different to all of his rivals - so he’s very hard to assess.
That said, it may be a mistake to under-estimate him…
3:40
The Hunter Chase is a race I’ve always liked - but it’s just not going to be the same this year, with professional riders.
The amateur jockeys were always a big part of its charm - but it is what it is…
It Came to Pass was a shock winner of the race 12 months ago, when he got the better of favourite, Billaway.
There seemed no fluke about the result - and in a way, it’s therefore a bit surprising that Billaway is strongly fancied to reverse the form tomorrow.
That said, he is the younger horse - and with It Came to Pass now 11, there’s a chance he is in slight decline.
Billaway has also shown the much better form, in the intervening period.
He can boast a second and 2 wins: whereas It Came to Pass has finished fourth (behind Billaway) and unseated.
However, it’s all about the big day - and it can certainly be argued that It Came to pass is the value call at 3 times the price.
Ofcourse this is not just a 2 horse race…
Bob and Co sits between Billaway and It Came to Pass, in the betting, following wins in his last 3 outings.
He could easily be unbeaten in his 4 runs in the UK, as he proved unrideable on his British debut and was pulled up.
That not been such an issue since - but he’s a very free going sort who will certainly be helped by the presence of Sean Bowen in the saddle, as opposed to his normal owner/ride, David Maxwell.
Red Indian is next in the betting - and he’s definitely of interest.
He still only 9 - and was still showing very useful form under rules, just 12 months ago.
I don’t know why he has switched to hunting - but he’s won his first 2 PTPs, suggesting he retains all of his ability.
If that’s the case, then he should be capable of going close.
Beyond the head of the market, then it’s very difficult to assess many of the runners.
Mr Mantilla, Latenightpass, Law of Gold and Salvatore are all relatively young horses with good form in PTPs.
However, how that will translate to a race like this, is anyones guess…
4:15
This will be the first ever running of the mares chase - and it has attracted a modest enough field of 11.
Perhaps it will improve over time…
Prior to the start of this years meeting, Willie Mullins had trained the winner of 14 of the 18 mares only races, run at the festival - and there’s a fair chance he will improve that record, as he trains the top two in the market for this.
Elimay is a short priced favourite.
She has won 3 of her 4 races over fences - her only defeat coming when she lost out to Allaho at Thurles in January.
There was no disgrace in that however, as the winner is rated 162 - and is the favourite for this afternoons Ryanair chase.
Elimay was only beaten 3 lengths, in receipt of just 2lb - and if she can run to that level tomorrow, she is likely to prove hard to beat.
On her latest outing, Elimay handed out a 5 length beating to Shattered Love.
She will meet that one on 2lb better terms tomorrow, suggesting that the runner up has little chance of revenge.
However, the 2 mile trip that day would have been far too short for Shattered Love and I would expect her to perform much better, stepped up by half a mile.
She was really impressive when winning a grade 1 chase at the festival 3 years ago - and if she’s back anywhere near that level of form, she will go very close.
Colreevy is the second Willie Mullins representative in the race (and the second favourite).
She was a good winner of an open grade 1 novice chase at Limerick over Christmas - and followed that up with a comfortable win in mares grade 2 race at Thurles, the following month.
Both of those races were over 2m4f so she will have no issue with tomorrows trip - however she seemed to relish the heavy ground on both occasions, so the likely quicker ground tomorrow is a concern.
On official ratings, Magic of Light is the best horse in the race.
However, the 2m4f trip is a bare minimum for her - and she is likely to be using this race primarily as a stepping stone for a tilt at the Grand National (she finished second in the race in 2019).
As a consequence, Zambella may be the most interesting of those at longer prices.
She won her first 3 chases this season - before finding Annie Mc too good last time at Warwick.
There was no shame in that, as the winner is a good horse, who would have had a fair chance in this race (she was a late defector).
Zambella does have a bit to find on official ratings with the market leaders - but she’s only 6, and still improving - so it’s quite possible that she will run better than the ratings suggest.
4:50
The final race of a long week - and they really couldn’t have found a more suitable minefield for the ‘getting out stakes’ !
I have to be honest and say that I didn’t look at this race in great detail at the 5 day stage (as I did for many of the other races).
There were still almost 100 possibles at that point - many of whom were doubly declared.
I did pick out a few of potential interest - but only one of those has made the final field…
That one is Gentleman de Mee - and he is the early favourite ! (impressive spotting, from me !).
The problem with him, is that he’s impossible to assess.
He’s only run 3 times in his life - twice in his native France - and then last time, on his debut for Willie Mullins at Naas.
He hacked up that day, at odds of 2/7 - but what the form is worth, is anyones guess,
The case for him is built around the fact that Willie Mullins has chosen to throw him into this race - and generally speaking, he tends to get these kind of calls right…
There’s a real chance that the horse is much better than his opening mark of 139 - but the likes of you can only guess as to whether that is the case…
Less guessing is required with second favourite, Langer Dan.
He dotted up in the Imperial cup on Saturday - and is 5lb ‘well in’ under his 5lb penalty tomorrow,
There is a question mark over whether he will have fully recovered from a race just 6 days earlier - but he won so easily, he didn’t seem to have a hard race.
It’s quite likely that Dan Skelton has had this as the aim for quite some time - and there are few better at pulling off such plans.
Galopin des Champs is third in the betting - and like Gentleman de Mee, trained by Willie Mullins and nearly impossible to assess.
He’s run 3 times for Mullins - the last twice in graded company.
On his most recent start, he was beaten 10 lengths by Appreciate It in a grade 1 at the Dublin Racing festival.
Taken at face value, that would have seen him finish runner up in Tuesdays Supreme novice - and would likely see him win this race off a mark of 142…
Outside the top 3 in the betting, there are lots who could be given half chances - but nothing that particularly stands out.
David Pipe saddles 3 in the race named in honour of his father - and whilst he’s never won it previously, he does look to have a fair chance.
Jockey bookings suggest Leoncavello is the best of his runners - though the unexposed Matinhall also looks quite interesting.
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