Mar 19th - Bets/Staking rationale

Todays Suggested bets

Matrix bets

Cheltenham

1:55
Le Patriote 2 units win 50/1
Le Patriote 2 units place 12/1
Petite Mouchoir 2 units win 33/1
Petite Mouchoir 2 units place 8/1
You Raise me up 2 units win 8/1

2:30
Streets of Doyen 5 units win SP (FP 8/1, MP 6/1)

3:05
MInella Indo 5 units win 8/1

3:40
It Came to Pass 2 units win 8/1

4:15
Cabaret Queen 1 unit win 25/1


Best bets


Cheltenham

1:55
Le Patriote 0.25pt EW 50/1
Petite Mouchoir 0.25pt EW 33/1

2:30
Streets of Doyen 0.5pt win SP (FP 8/1, MP 6/1)

3:05
MInella Indo 0.5pt win 8/1

 

 It was disappointing that none of yesterdays Best bets managed to win.

2 ran well and were placed: whilst the other 2 made race ending mistakes.
It happens…

It was also annoying that I took Flooring Porter out of the Matrix and reduced stakes on Mount Ida - literally moments before I issued !
That was simply human error (with me being the human making the mistake !).

If I’m honest, I think my approach to the bets this week, has been poor.
I know that Best bet method (old tips) doesn’t really work at Cheltenham - which Is part of the reason why I introduced the Matrix.
However rather than giving the Matrix free reign, I’ve compromised it in the same way as the Best bets !

My only excuses, are that I’ve barely had time to think all week (and thus decide on the most appropriate bets) - and the old chestnut of the prices having been crushed by the time I tip.

I’ll obviously need to think about my approach - though that can wait for another day - I just wanted to briefly share my thoughts with you all…


As far as today is concerned, then I’ve tackled things slightly differently.

I’m keen on a couple in the Country hurdle, at very big prices - and whilst I’ve resisted putting anything up EW so far this season, the place markets on the exchanges are strong enough for it to be an option and I’d rather back them to place, than back anything else in the field, to win.

I’ve also suggested backing one horse at SP - more on that below...

Here’s the thinking behind todays bets (and none bets !)


Cheltenham

I toyed with suggesting Tritonic in the opener, because it can be argued he’s value at 7/2.
He was a 2/1 shot this time last week - but has been a big drifter.
I suspect that is mainly because he’s not trained in Ireland - and if that is the case, then he is a value bet !
However, the reality is, he faces a couple of strong opponents - and a couple of potentially dangerous unknowns ones - whilst the strength of his hurdling form is unproven.
If he was running tomorrow, I wouldn’t make him a Best bet - so he shouldn’t be a Best bet today (and indeed, isn’t !)
 
Needless to say there are plenty who can be given a chance in the County hurdle (1:55) - but I particularly like the profile of a couple of old timers…
Both Petite Mouchoir and Le Patriote are potentially well handicapped (very well handicapped in the case of the latter) and whilst neither are improving, I also don't believe they are In decline.
Petite Mouchoir was beaten just 5 lengths in a Grade 1 at Christmas, by the Champion hurdle runner up; he was also beaten just 4 lengths in the Galway hurdle last summer, when running off the same mark as today.
Le Patriote recorded his second best ever RPR just 3 runs ago; whilst he won the Swinton hurdle 2 years ago, off a mark 3lb higher than he races off today.
Both horses will love the quickening ground - with the icing on the cake being that both will be ridden by talented 7lb claimers.
Both are seriously over-priced - and whilst it is possible that younger legs might just get the better of them, I would expect them to run really well.
At the odds on offer - and with the markets very strong - they are worth backing to place as well as win.
In terms of the markets leaders, then the support for You Raise me Up looks significant.
He now strikes me as the most likely race winner and is worth covering, for the Matrix.

I’m very keen on Streets of Doyen in the 2:30 - but unfortunately, so is everyone else !
I like his profile, as a horse who ran well over the summer, returning to better ground today - having had a recent pipe opener over an inadequate trip.
I also like the fact that he has won over todays course and distance…
The trouble is, 4 runs ago, he beat Flooring Porter at Gowran - and everyone has picked up on that !
In truth, I think the form line is irrelevant. The runner up veered wildly after jumping the last - and if he’d not done that, he would probably have won.
Hopefully people will eventually see that was the case, and the price will drift accordingly…

I’ve become quite keen on Minella Indo for the Gold Cup (3:05).
He was the second favourite for the race, prior to falling at Leopardstown over Christmas - and would likely still be second fav, if he’d not disappointed in the Irish Gold cup, last time.
We have to ignore that run - but if we do, we have a young progressive chaser, who already has an excellent festival record.
He went toe to toe with Allaho in the RSA last year - and beat him.
I think he would also have beaten Champ - but he idled a little, up the hill.
It’ll need a good ride from Jack Kennedy if he is to win - but there are few I’d rather have on top.
He’s overpriced because Rachael Blackmore has opted to ride A Plus Tard - but I bet it was a tough call and she can only ride one of them !

There’s too much guesswork required to get heavily involved with Foxhunters (3:40) - though I do think It Came to Pass is worth a small bet for the Matrix.
He won the race last year - and on that form holds Billaway.
He’ll be well suited by the decent ground - and his form between then and now, is probably irrelevant.
Bob and Co is a danger - and there are also plenty of unknowns lurkers - but It Came to pass still looks a value bet at 8/1.

I think Elimay is too short in the 4:15 - which means there must be value elsewhere.
It’s not Colreevy, who may struggle on the ground - so I think it is worth taking a small risk, for the Matrix.
Cabaret Queen is likely to go from the front - and I think she will love the ground.
The trip is possibly on the short side - but I suspect Rachael Blackmore will make it a real test.
She does face potential competition for the lead - so she can’t be a confident selection.
However, if things pan out in her favour, I could see her running a huge race.

I really can’t bring myself to offer anything in the finale (4:50).
Gentleman De Mee could easily be a graded horse in a handicap - and is being backed as if that’s the case (he’s 3/1).
I could take him on with Langer Dan or Galopin des Champs - but I’d be guessing.
The huge support for Gabynako also suggests he is expected to go very close.
In short, I think this is a race that we should just watch.