Apologies for the delay in producing the Cheltenham review.
I really was in no state to write it over the weekend: whilst there were a few things I had to catch up on yesterday.
Hopefully it will prove worth the wait..!
Following 10mm of rain on Sunday night, the suggestion was that the festival would start on ground softer than had been expected…
I’d thought long and hard about my strategy for the official tips at the meeting.
Over the past few years, more and more races have been won by either the blindingly obvious - or the unpickable !
Neither of these types are ideal for a form student, like myself - who also aims to secure value prices...
As a consequence, I’d made the decision, to keep the Best bets light - though I did expect to use the Matrix to prove more extensive coverage in many of the races.
As things turned out, then I feel my strategy with the Best bets was fine - though I didn’t deploy the Matrix quite as much as I should have.
In part, this was because the prices available at 8:30 frequently didn’t represent value.
It’s an area I need to look at more closely, as the Matrix was never designed to operate with early bookmaker prices (but this is how I've ended up using it).
In terms of my decision to back off the Best bets, then that was vindicated immediately, with winners at 4/9 and 80/1 on day 1.
It was always unlikely that I would suggest either of those as Best bets !
Tuesday
My original intention on day 1, was to only suggest Remastered as a Best bet.
However the early prices, persuaded me to also take a chance on Sage Advice in the Boodles and Epatante in the Champion hurdle…
Epatante was the first of the 3 to run.
With the 7lb sex allowance, I really did think that the Champion was likely to be won by one of the mares - and at 6/4 Honeysuckle and 4/1 Epatante, there was only one way I could go.
In the race itself, Honeysuckle travelled nicely behind the pace; whereas Epatante never seemed to be moving easily.
Turning for home, Rachael Blackmore kicked Honeysuckle on and quickly had the race in safe keeping.
Meanwhile Epatante could only stay on for a distant third…
The fact that Epatante finished 3 lengths behind Sharjah this year, having beaten him by almost the same distance 12 months ago, suggests she didn’t run to her best (and that is how it looked in the race).
However, even if she had, I suspect she would have struggled to beat a much improved winner.
Epatante was a good bet - but a losing one…
Sage Advice was also a good bet in the Boodles.
It wasn’t a race that I intended to get heavily involved with, but I was drawn in by the price on him (which I felt under-estimated his chance, by quite some margin).
He travelled sweetly through the race, and jumping the last, still had every chance (he traded at almost even money in running).
However, his stamina gave out on the climb up the final hill - and ultimately he faded into sixth place.
It was a reminder (not that one was needed !) of just how hard it is to win these big field Cheltenham handicaps.
Remastered was the final Best bet on the day.
I suggested him ante-post, at quite a big price - but felt he was worth supporting again on the day, following the rain (which should have been in his favour)
However, it was clear long before the final race, that the ground wasn’t anywhere near as soft as has been expected - and after making the running to the home straight, he was swamped for speed by the 3 market leaders, on the run to the second last.
He ended up finishing fifth - though I could see him picking up one of the Nationals (maybe Scottish), if he gets softer ground…
In addition to the Best bets, there were also a number of bets for the Matrix.
Not so Sleepy, Curious Bride and Snow Leopardess, provided support for the 3 Best bets - but none managed to trouble the judge.
I also took on the Ultima handicap, with a more conventional Matrix, splitting stakes across 4 horses.
That was more of a success, with my main bet in the race, Vintage Cloud, coming home a decisive winner from one of the savers (Happygolucky).
The winner had a morning price of 25/1 - but an SP of 28/1 - and a BSP of 50 !
Showing yet again, that the best way to play the Matrix, is via the exchanges (ideally, close to the off).
In the other 3 races on the day, Appreciate It and Shishkin were both short priced winners; whilst Black Tears was one that got away…
I nearly covered her in the Matrix - but wasn’t convinced she’d be able to beat the favourite, Concertista.
I may well have been right - but under a great ride from Jack Kennedy, she pounced late and managed to beat the favourite by a head.
That’ll teach me for not taking a risk !
Wednesday
Day 2 of the festival was always going to be the quietest of the days, from a betting perspective.
The races weren’t there to get heavily involved in - and I ended up with just the one Best bet on the day, supported by a few for the Matrix.
Guard you Dreams was the Best bet - and he was very popular in the market.
He’d been a 20/1 shot a week before the race (I considered him for an ante-post play); 14/1 the day before - but was only 9/1 by the time I was able to suggest him
Even that price had evaporated by the off - and he was sent off at just 7/1.
In the race itself, he ran a little disappointingly, and never got within hailing distance of Heaven Help Us.
She had been a brilliant winner for us at the Dublin Racing festival - and whilst I expected her to again run well, I thought she might struggle off a higher mark, in a much stronger contest.
However, she relished the challenge - leading almost throughout, before bounding up the hill.
With hindsight, I should have covered her in the Matrix - but instead I opted for 3 others - none of whom were ever sighted…
I fully covered one other race for the Matrix - the Grand Annual.
My original plan had been to make Moonlighter a Best bet in the race - but he got tipped elsewhere the night before and that destroyed his price.
As a consequence, I just covered him in the Matrix - along with 4 others.
Unfortunately, it was not a race that I’d read particularly well.
Moonlighter could never get to the lead - and was eventually pulled up.
On the Slopes did best of my selections in the race.
He still held every chance approaching the last - but struggled to get up the hill and ultimately finished a well beaten fourth.
There were Matrix bets in 2 other races.
Rouge Vif ran really poorly on ground that should have suited in the Champion chase.
I expected better from him.
Whilst, I decided to take on the 2 market leaders in the bumper - on account of their prices.
However, they came in for continued support throughout the day - and by the off, it looked quite clear that I’d made the wrong call !
And so it proved, with second fav Sir Gerhard, winning under a good front running ride from Rachael Blackmore - from favourite, Kilcruit.
2 of my selections filled the next 2 places - but there was no consolation in that…
In the other races on the day: Bob Olinger and Monkfish won the 2 opening contests, at similar prices to those of Appreciate It and Shishkin, the day before.
Whilst Tiger Roll bounced back to form to take the cross country race.
With hindsight, I maybe could have taken a risk on him, as I did feel that he was the only feasible danger to the favourite, Easysland.
I fully expected the favourite to win - but at even money and 5/1 respectively it wouldn’t have been hard to make a value based call for Tiger Roll.
Thursday
By contrast to day 2, day 3 was the main betting day of the week - and with hindsight (and maybe foresight !) I should have made it even bigger…
I suggested 4 Best bets on the day - and was quite keen on them all.
I also suggested a number of Matrix bets - both to support the Best bets and to tackle one of the other races on the card.
If I’d been a bit braver with the Matrix bets, the afternoon would have gone a little better…
Come on Teddy was the first Best bet to run - in the Pertemps final.
I quite liked him - and that discouraged me from covering too extensively, with the Matrix.
However, as I had witnessed on Tuesday with Sage Advice, it’s quite easy to pick a horse that runs well in a big handicap - but doesn’t win.
Come on Teddy ran well - but he was given an exaggerated waiting ride and ultimately couldn’t make it to the front.
He finished a creditable third - a few lengths ahead of Everglow, the only horse I did cover, in the Matrix.
If I’d used the Matrix more extensively, then I may well have included the winner, Mrs Milner - as she was on my original short-list for the race.
However, the bookmakers don’t pay out on ‘if’s..!
Mister Fisher was the second Best bet on the day - and on ground that had moved in his favour, I was quite keen on him.
However, he was unlucky to bump into a horse at the very top of his game.
If I’m honest, I’d never been completely convinced by Allaho - but given an aggressive front running ride by Rachael Balckmore, he jumped from fence to fence and simply destroyed the opposition.
It’s quite possible the Mister Fisher was the second best horse in the race - but Allaho’s jumping put him under so much pressure, he was forced into jumping mistakes.
He managed to survive a couple - but they ultimately got the better of him and he was pulled up.
I did cover on Chris’s Dream - but he was never in the race and was also pulled up.
It was an awesome performance from Allaho - probably the most impressive of the entire festival.
Lisnagar Oscar was the next Best bet to run - but as with Mister Fisher, he found the obstacles getting in his way !
He was in third place and still going easily, when he got the seventh wrong - and paid the price, taking a heavy fall.
That left the way for Flooring Porter to go on and record an impressive all the way win.
It was a frustrating result for me, as the winner had been on my list of Matrix bets, until moments before I issued.
These things do happen - but that doesn’t make them any less irritating ! (particularly as I’d put up savers against all of the days other Best bets)…
Hold the Note was the final Best bet to run - and as with Come on Teddy, he ran well.
He never really looked like winning - but did manage to stay on for fourth place.
Thankfully, unlike with Come on Teddy, I put up a couple of savers for the Matrix - and one of them was the winner Mount Ida.
The other was third placed Shantou Flyer - so ended up with a 1,3,4 from my 3 suggested bets in the race - which is quite impressive, in a 21 runner handicap !
There was one more race on the day, in which I suggested bets for the Matrix.
That was the Plate - and I suggested 3, headed by The Shunter…
In search of a £100K bonus, he was backed as if defeat was out of the question (9/4 fav in 21 runner handicap !) - and duly came home a comfortable winner.
Coole Cody was another suggested bet for the Matrix - and he ran really well to finish fourth at a big price.
In the 2 other races on the day:
Chantry House took advantage of Envoi Allens fall, to win the Marsh chase; whilst Tellmesomethinggirl justified good market support, to take the mares novice hurdle.
All in all, despite 2 wins for the Matrix, it felt like a day on which I should have done better…
Friday
The final day of the festival - and with the action dropping off significantly after the Gold cup, I issued just 4 Best bets on the day.
2 of them were the first ‘each way’ bets that I’d issued all season.
However the strong place markets at Cheltenham made that a feasible option.
They were both due to run in the County Hurdle - and with profiles which weren’t going to be overly attractive to the majority of punters, they were both put in at prices much bigger than I felt should have been the case.
Of the pair, I preferred the chances of Le Patriote - but he was a non runner, meaning that all hopes were with Petit Mouchoir.
And what a race he ran !
In the front rank through out, he lost his place on the run to the final flight - but then stayed on strongly up the hill to reclaim second place.
He was never getting to the winner but it was still a huge performance - and fully justified my decision to go EW with him, rather than take my normal approach of also backing a saver.
Streets of Doyen was the second Best bet to run.
He became the first Best bet of the season to be advised at SP.
His price had been crushed overnight - and I fully expected it to drift out on the day (as so often happens).
And that is exactly how it turned out: 7/1 in the morning, he eventually was sent off at 10/1 - with 14+ available on the exchanges a few minutes before the off.
In the race itself, he ran well - staying on to claim third place.
However, he was no match for the winner, Vanillier - who I could definitely have been interested in, if I’d been able to spend a little more time on the race…
The final Best bet of the day - and indeed the festival - came in the Gold cup itself…
I had decided that A Plus Tard was the most likely winner of the race - but the success of Rachael Blackmore earlier in the week, meant that he was very popular and his price became too short.
I felt there was little between him and his stablemate Minella Indo - so at 3 times the price, the latter became the selection.
In the race itself, Jack Kennedy gave Minella Indo a text book ride - sitting in just behind the leaders.
Meanwhile Rachael Blackmore positioned A Plus Tard a couple of lengths further back - and ultimately, that probably made the difference.
At the line, there was just over a length between the pair - with Minella Indo demonstrating why you always have to take the value option.
It’s a game of fine margins - and whilst Rachael Blackmore had been magnificent all week - it was Jack Kennedys brilliance that won the day in the big one.
Things were always likely to peter out from that point on - and that’s what happened...
I suggested a couple of other bets for the Matrix in 2 of the subsequent races - but neither It came to Pass or Cabaret Queen, managed to trouble the judges.
In the days 2 other races: then with his 3 main rivals disappointing, Quixilos was an easy winner of the Triumph; whilst the final race of the meeting was taken by Galopin des Champs.
If I’d suggested a bet in the race, then it may well have been him - but the race looked a bit of a lottery and I was starting to tire by that point !
It had been a very long 4 days..!
TVB
No comments:
Post a Comment