Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Warwick
1:50
Golan Fortune 5 units win 5/1
3:00
Django Django 5 units win 10/1
Le Breuil 3 units win 9/2
3:35
The Macon Lugnatic 5 units win 18/1
Potters Corner 3 units win 7/1
Best bets
Warwick
1:50
Golan Fortune 0.5pt win 5/1 (MP 4/1)
3:00
Django Django 0.5pt win 10/1
3:35
The Macon Lugnatic 0.5pt win 18/1 (MP 14/1)
It was good to see Market Rasen pass its early morning
inspection - even if it made no difference to the suggested bets !
The ground there, will doubtless by desperate - and I’ve no doubt there will be plenty of NRs.
I’ll keep an eye on developments for the Live thread - it’s certainly not meeting I would want to attack before racing got underway…
I suspect the ground won’t be much better at Warwick - but the quality of the racing is.
I was therefore happy enough to suggest a few bets - though the usual early prices crashes didn’t help !
Warwick
I think it’s worth taking a risk on Golan Fortune in the 1:50.
He may not have the class of his 2 rivals - but he has the best chase form on offer and should get the run of the race, from the front.
Very soft ground would be a slight concern - but hopefully he’ll get away with it.
Whether he can win, will depend on the quality of his jumping and Keilan Woods getting the fractions right.
The 2:25 is just too open, to consider serious involvement.
10 of the 12 runners can be given a chance - and my inclination is to just pick off the drifters on the exchanges (though not too close to the off !).
I expect there to be a lot of pace, in the 3:00 - which will result in a real stamina test.
Django Django has been my main fancy for most of the week - and I would hope the race will be run to suit him.
He has a feather weight and the heavy ground is exactly what he wants.
Hopefully the combination of the cheek pieces and Dickie in the saddle, will ensure he doesn’t get too far behind early !
If he’s in touch turning for home, I don’t think anything will be finishing more strongly.
Le Breuil is too well handicapped to ignore - and is worth saving on, for the Matrix.
He needs to win in order to get into the Grand National - and a breathing op may well do the trick.
The issue with him is the price, as 9/2 really is a minimum…
I’m not sure why The Macon Lugnatic was such a big price in 3:35 (though I guess we might find out later !).
25/1 was easily available early - and although he was cut just before I issued, 18/1 still seems generous.
There are doubts over the trip and the ground - but he could get an uncontested lead - and he needs to win, if he’s to have any chance of running in the series final.
He’s definitely worth a risk at the odds.
Potters Corner is also worth having on side (for the Matrix), because he is very well handicapped over hurdles - and will relish the likely conditions.
My fear is that he may get outpaced - but if he’s got any chance turning for home, I would expect him to win !
Market Rasen
I could have been very tempted by Oscars Leader at around 7/2, in the 2:05.
However, that price went shortly after the final decs were announced - and showed no sign of returning, even before Langer Dan was taken out of the race !
I do think he’s the most likely race winner, because I can see reasons why the other 3 won’t perform to their best.
However, he was a beaten fav in this race 12 months ago (off a much lower mark) - and with his stable form a worry, I can resist getting involved at around 7/4…
I still can’t see an angle into the 2:40.
On the Blind Side looks the most likely winner - but 6/4 is too short for a horse who could blow out (if last weeks run took more out of him than connections think).
Vision des Flos could bounce back to form - and will love the ground - but may not stay the trip.
Mohaayed could be the one - but there’s too many question marks to consider getting involved at 5/1.
At no point did I even remotely consider getting involved with the 3:15.
It looks to lie between the top 3 in the market - but its impossible to gauge their relative abilities - and there is nothing in the price of any of them, to encourage you to take a risk !
The ground there, will doubtless by desperate - and I’ve no doubt there will be plenty of NRs.
I’ll keep an eye on developments for the Live thread - it’s certainly not meeting I would want to attack before racing got underway…
I suspect the ground won’t be much better at Warwick - but the quality of the racing is.
I was therefore happy enough to suggest a few bets - though the usual early prices crashes didn’t help !
Warwick
I think it’s worth taking a risk on Golan Fortune in the 1:50.
He may not have the class of his 2 rivals - but he has the best chase form on offer and should get the run of the race, from the front.
Very soft ground would be a slight concern - but hopefully he’ll get away with it.
Whether he can win, will depend on the quality of his jumping and Keilan Woods getting the fractions right.
The 2:25 is just too open, to consider serious involvement.
10 of the 12 runners can be given a chance - and my inclination is to just pick off the drifters on the exchanges (though not too close to the off !).
I expect there to be a lot of pace, in the 3:00 - which will result in a real stamina test.
Django Django has been my main fancy for most of the week - and I would hope the race will be run to suit him.
He has a feather weight and the heavy ground is exactly what he wants.
Hopefully the combination of the cheek pieces and Dickie in the saddle, will ensure he doesn’t get too far behind early !
If he’s in touch turning for home, I don’t think anything will be finishing more strongly.
Le Breuil is too well handicapped to ignore - and is worth saving on, for the Matrix.
He needs to win in order to get into the Grand National - and a breathing op may well do the trick.
The issue with him is the price, as 9/2 really is a minimum…
I’m not sure why The Macon Lugnatic was such a big price in 3:35 (though I guess we might find out later !).
25/1 was easily available early - and although he was cut just before I issued, 18/1 still seems generous.
There are doubts over the trip and the ground - but he could get an uncontested lead - and he needs to win, if he’s to have any chance of running in the series final.
He’s definitely worth a risk at the odds.
Potters Corner is also worth having on side (for the Matrix), because he is very well handicapped over hurdles - and will relish the likely conditions.
My fear is that he may get outpaced - but if he’s got any chance turning for home, I would expect him to win !
Market Rasen
I could have been very tempted by Oscars Leader at around 7/2, in the 2:05.
However, that price went shortly after the final decs were announced - and showed no sign of returning, even before Langer Dan was taken out of the race !
I do think he’s the most likely race winner, because I can see reasons why the other 3 won’t perform to their best.
However, he was a beaten fav in this race 12 months ago (off a much lower mark) - and with his stable form a worry, I can resist getting involved at around 7/4…
I still can’t see an angle into the 2:40.
On the Blind Side looks the most likely winner - but 6/4 is too short for a horse who could blow out (if last weeks run took more out of him than connections think).
Vision des Flos could bounce back to form - and will love the ground - but may not stay the trip.
Mohaayed could be the one - but there’s too many question marks to consider getting involved at 5/1.
At no point did I even remotely consider getting involved with the 3:15.
It looks to lie between the top 3 in the market - but its impossible to gauge their relative abilities - and there is nothing in the price of any of them, to encourage you to take a risk !
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