3 of tomorrows 4 planned meetings, will need to pass early morning inspections, due to the threat of frost.
Thankfully, the meeting at Ascot appears to be in no danger - and it is the best card, by some margin.
As a consequence, my preview for tomorrow will focus on the action there - though I will also cover the televised races from both Haydock and Taunton.
Ascot
1:15
The first televised race is the least attractive, from a betting perspective.
It looks to be a virtual match, between Roksana and Magic of Light - though there’s a slight chance that Eglantine du Seuil could spoil the party…
Of the big 2, then Roksana very much looks the one to beat.
She’s put in 2 really big efforts this season: winning first time out at Wetherby; and then finishing third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the ‘Long Walk’ at Ascot.
That’s top class staying form - and fully justifies her current official rating of 153.
There’s no obvious reason why she won’t run to that level tomorrow - and if she does, she’s unlikely to be beaten.
Magic of Light has won the past 2 runnings of this race - but has never previously faced an opponent of Roksana’s quality.
On official ratings, she is 4lb inferior to Roksana - and I suspect she is slightly flattered by that.
The fact she likes to front run, means there is always a chance that she could steal the race - but Harry Skelton is a very shrewd jockey and I’ll be amazed if Roksana finds herself out of her ground.
On official ratings, Eglatine du Seuil should be more of a threat to Roksana than Magic of Light.
She is rated 7lb inferior to the favourite - but the penalty structure of the race, means that she receives 6lb.
In theory that should make things very interesting - however Eglatine hasn’t fully justified her current rating and is also unproven over tomorrows trip.
If she happened to improve for the increased distance, then she would be a big danger - but I suspect that Roksana will come home in front.
1:50
This is the first of 3 really competitive handicaps on the card.
I did initially think that I might have an angle into it - but I’m now not quite so sure !
Lightly Squeezed has been installed the early favourite on the back of a fine third last time, in a hot Ascot handicap, just before Christmas.
That is certainly strong form - however he has been raised 3lb for the run and it remains to be seen whether he will appreciate stepping up in trip by half a mile.
At the prices, I was prepared to oppose him…
Arrivederci was sent off favourite for the Ascot race but ran disappointingly.
However, his best form previously had been over a longer trip - so there is a chance the bare 2 miles didn’t suit him.
He’s back up to 2m4f tomorrow - and that should suit him better.
The form of his 2 runs earlier in the season is strong - and if he can recapture that level, I would make him the form pick.
However, there are a few potential flies in the ointment !
Janika is the first - running over hurdles for the first time in the UK.
His hurdles mark is 13lb lower than his chase mark - so he is potentially very well handicapped. He also won first time out last season, so has proven he can go well fresh.
If connections have targeted him at the race (as opposed to using it to get him fit for a return to chasing), then he will probably win…
Danny Kirwan is the next.
He will be having his first run in a handicap, having run well in a number of novice races.
He has the kind of profile you normally look for in these kind of races - and top connections to boot.
Paddys Motorbike is the third.
Like Danny Kirwan, he will be having his first run in a handicap - and doesn’t appear badly treated, based both on his runs in novice events and his form on the flat.
He’s also a prominent racer, which tends to be advantageous in big field handicaps.
Craigneiche is the final ‘dark one’.
Again, he is a novice stepping into a handicap for the first time - and with only 2 prior runs under his belt, is very hard to quantify.
However, it’s interesting that he is trained by Nicky Henderson - not someone who tends to over-face his horses.
With all 4, the market close to the off, is likely to be prophetic…
Of the others, then Kateson can be given a definite chance on his last time out win at Aintree.
That is strong form - and a 5lb rise in the ratings, doesn’t look overly harsh.
I’d struggle to make much of a case for the remaining 5 - but my ‘short’ list is still a bit longer than I’d like !
2:25
This race isn’t actually on terrestrial TV - which is a bit of a shame, as it’s a very decent looking contest.
De Forgotten One has been installed favourite.
He was backed into favouritism on his penultimate run in the cross country race at the Cheltenham December meeting.
He ran well to finish third in that race - and then went 2 places better when winning on his most recent outing at Catterick.
He was quite impressive that day - but it was a relatively poor race and he runs off a mark 10lb higher tomorrow.
Whether he will be capable of defying the new mark, only time will tell…
It’s a similar story with both Cobolobo and Crossley Tender.
They were both comfortable winners of fair races at Exeter on their most recent outings - but will face tougher opposition tomorrow, off higher handicap marks.
The actually met in November, again at Exeter, and whilst Crossley Tender came out on top that day, Cobolobo should reverse the form tomorrow, as he is 7lb better off for a beating of just under 2 lengths.
I made Yalltari a Best bet last time, when he finished fourth at Chepstow.
I was a little disappointed with him that day, as he appeared to have no excuses - and even off a 2lb lower mark tomorrow, I wouldn’t be in a particular rush to back him…
Enqard takes drop in class tomorrow, after his last time out run in the Tommy Whittle at Haydock.
He unseated his rider just after half way, that day - but still appeared to be going well at the time.
That was his first run over fences in the UK - but he has plenty of chasing experience, in his native France.
His jumping is a slight worry, but if he has learnt from his mistake, then I suspect he is handicapped to run a very big race.
Favourite Bucks is also handicapped to run a big race - which is precisely what he did last time, over tomorrows course and distance.
Very soft ground won’t suit him - but if the going isn’t too bad, then he should go very close.
3:00
A little like the 1:50 race, this looks a very tough one to call…
Bennys King and Good Boy Bobby are disputing favouritism - and I much prefer the chance of the latter.
In fact, it’s not hard to argue that he is a potentially well handicapped horse - who should have near ideal conditions.
He’s run 7 times over fences - and performed with credit on each occasion.
Of his form last season, then a narrow defeat by Mister Fisher, when attempting to concede 5lb, reads particularly well; whilst his second to Master Tommytucker, on his penultimate outing at Haydock, also now looks very strong, as the winner was subsequently successful in grade 2 company - and is now rated 159.
Good Boy Bobby runs off a mark of 144 tomorrow - and I wouldn’t be surprised if that under-rates him by 5 or 6lb (which is likely to be sufficient for him to win).
Bennys King on the other hand, looks handicapped to the hilt.
He was narrowly beaten in this race last year, and should have no chance of reversing the form with the winner, Domain de L’isle, on 9lb worse terms.
In fact, Domain De L’ilse should really be of major interest - however he’s been out of form since that run, and with no glaringly obvious reason why he should return to form tomorrow, it would require a bit of an act of faith to support him…
Dashel Drasher finished well behind Good Boy Bobby at Haydock - and will have his work cut out to reverse the form on 8lb worse terms.
As a consequence, Espoir de Guye looks the main danger to Good Boy Bobby.
He won over tomorrows course and distance, in November - and whilst he disappointed last time, that was over 3 furlongs further.
Back down in trip - and off a mark just 5lb higher, I would expect him to run very well.
That said, his mark of 149 looks a quite high in absolute terms.
Of the outsiders, then both Jerrysback and Colorado Doc are of some interest.
The former has twice run well over the course - and looks fairly handicapped.
It’s not easy to get a handle on Colorado Doc - but he looked good when winning at Plumpton in February and has plenty of PTP experience to call on.
3:35
This really is a fascinating race - though I’m not sure I’ll be brave enough to have a go at it !
In a way, it can be argued that I should - as I definitely think Politolgue is beatable.
He’s an admirable horse - and justifiably favourite based on recent form.
However, he isn’t from the very top drawer - and that makes him vulnerable to both Waiting Patiently and Defi du Seuil.
It’s not hard to argue that both of them have more natural ability than Politologue - they just aren't as consistent.
Defi du Seuil won this race 12 months ago, when getting the better of Un De Sceaux.
He’d beaten the same horse when winning the Tingle Creek on his previous outing - a race in which Waiting Patiently finished third and Politologue, fifth.
On that form Defi should be favourite for tomorrows race - but 2 subsequent poor runs, mean that he has significant questions to answer.
Waiting Patiently has less questions to answer, following his excellent second to Frodon in last months King George.
Based on that run, I make him the most likely winner of tomorrows race - though I wouldn’t be prepared to pull the trigger, at less than 3/1…
In truth, I’m not completely convinced that this is just a 3 horse race (even if that’s what the official ratings claim !)
Fanion D’estruval, First Flow and Duc des Genievres may all be rated at least 7lb inferior to the ‘big 3’ - but it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one of them in the shake up.
Duc de Genievres is the one most likely to run his race - and could certainly get placed. However, it’s unlikely that he has quite enough class to win.
Fanion D’estruval will need to show massive improvement if he is to feature.
However, he’s only 6 - and on a big upward curve. If there is to be a ‘shock’ in the race, he is the one most likely to provide it…
Haydock
Assuming the meeting goes ahead, then the ground is likely to be somewhere between heavy and bottom-less !
Suffice to say, an abundance of stamina will be the key requirement
1:30
I don’t have an overly strong view on this race.
It’s a novice hurdle - and all of the runners are unexposed, progressive types.
The race is likely to be won by the horse who copes best with conditions.
Llandinabo Lad sets the standard, based on a couple of hurdle wins - and a last time out second at Ascot.
His form is good - and more than that, he looks a hardy type.
However, he will need to give weight to all of his rivals - and on very heavy ground, that will be a big ask.
On form, Minella Drama has a similar chance to Llandinabo Lad.
The 2 clashed at Bangor in Ocotber and Llandinabo Lad came out on top by 5 lengths.
However it was Minella Drama first run under rules - and he is 5lb better off at the weights tomorrow.
On the book, there should be little between the pair.
On official ratings, Nada to Prada also has a similar chance.
She was a good winner of a mares only race over the course, last month.
That race was run on heavy ground - and as it was also over half a mile further, she should have no problem staying tomorrows trip.
The question is whether she will be strong enough against the geldings…
Faivoir has a chance on official ratings - though I’ll be a little surprised if he proves quite good enough.
In fact, Anythingforlove looks a more interesting runner.
She could be unbeaten in 5 runs under rules, if it weren’t for an unfortunate incident with her stirrup, at Uttoxeter in November.
She has been running in relatively modest races, so tomorrow will represent a step up in class.
However, it’s hard to accurately asses her form, so there is a chance she will be up to the task.
2:40
Royal Pagaille was hugely impressive when winning at Kempton over Christmas.
However he went up a massive 16lb for that win - and couldn’t face a more different test tomorrow.
Kempton is a right handed track - and the ground that day was on the soft side of good; Haydock is a left handed track - and the ground tomorrow will be heavy, at best !
In the circumstances - and at the likely odds - he has to be opposed.
Sam Brown is the obvious one to take him on with.
He will be making his handicap debut - but has looked a quality horse, in novice/intermediate races.
In fairness, an opening mark of 152 means the assessor hasn’t exactly missed him - but he could still prove to be better than a handicapper.
He must have very soft ground - and has won previously at Haydock.
Whilst a first time tongue tie - and the booking of crack amateur Ben Godfrey, certainly suggest intent.
With only 3 of the runners in the handicap proper, the short list, is quite short !
Sams Adventure is the final one of major interest, following his course and distance win last time, in the Tommy Whittle chase.
He was only raised 6lb for that win - which certainly looks fair. However, he lacks the potential of the 2 markets leaders.
It strikes me that he’s a very good bet to place - but not such a good bet to win…
Smooth Stepper, is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He won the Grand National trial over tomorrows course in February - and certainly won’t lack for stamina.
However, he’s now 12 - and will be competing off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow.
He’s only likely to win, if the market leaders under perform.
3:15
Former Champion hurdler, Buveur Dair, returns to the track in this race, after 15 months on the sidelines.
He last ran in the 2019 Fighting Fifth hurdle at Newcastle - but sustained a nasty foot injury.
How much of his old ability remains, is anyones guess.
He’s now 10 - and whilst age shouldn’t be a major issue - when coupled with an injury, it must unlikely that he’s as good as he once was.
In fairness, he won’t have to be, if he is to win this.
He receives weight from both of his rivals - with Ballyandy having to concede him 6lb.
Ballyandy is rated 157 - and is quite capable of running to that mark.
However, even if he does, then Buveur Dair will only have to run to a mark of just over 150, in order to win…
He really should be capable of that (at his prime, he was rated 172) - even if heavy ground on his comeback, is hardly ideal.
Navajo Pass has even more to find on official ratings.
He’s only rated 149 - yet has to conceded 3lb to Buveur Dair…
All this said, the race is not really about pounds and lengths.
Fitness and an ability to handle conditions will be the main factors - and Ballyandy scores a maximum on both counts.
Tactics could also be key - and there’s a chance that Navajo Pass could steal the race from the front…
Clearly, this can’t be a betting race, because there is just too much guesswork involved.
It will still be very interesting to see how it works out - with it possible to make a case (of sorts) for all 3 runners…
Taunton
2:10
There’s just one race from Taunton, being covered on terrestrial TV - and it looks to be at the mercy of Yala Enki.
He was a comfortable winner of the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and it’s quite likely that he will follow up tomorrow.
On official ratings, he is at least 9lb clear of all of his rivals, apart from Al Roc - and as that one is making his UK debut, the assessor has had to guess at his mark.
If the Cap fits should be the biggest danger to Yala Enki.
He is only a novice - but was a grade 1 winning hurdler who was rated 166 at his prime.
He’s not looked a natural over fences - but takes a big step up in trip tomorrow and that could result in him posting an improved effort.
That said, there’s also a chance that hesitant jumping will cost him, as it did in his most recent race, at Kempton.
Rock the Kasbah finished second to Yala Enki in last years race - and whilst it’s hard to see him reversing the form, I would still expect him to run well.
However, the betting may well advise on his chance, as he will be having his first run since last years race.
Ultimately, this appears Yala Enkis race to lose.
The biggest worry is the fact that it’s only 2 weeks since he endured a seriously hard race, when finishing third in the Welsh National. He will need to have a strong constitution to bounce back from that - but I suspect he will be up to the job.
Assuming the meeting goes ahead, then the ground is likely to be somewhere between heavy and bottom-less !
Suffice to say, an abundance of stamina will be the key requirement
1:30
I don’t have an overly strong view on this race.
It’s a novice hurdle - and all of the runners are unexposed, progressive types.
The race is likely to be won by the horse who copes best with conditions.
Llandinabo Lad sets the standard, based on a couple of hurdle wins - and a last time out second at Ascot.
His form is good - and more than that, he looks a hardy type.
However, he will need to give weight to all of his rivals - and on very heavy ground, that will be a big ask.
On form, Minella Drama has a similar chance to Llandinabo Lad.
The 2 clashed at Bangor in Ocotber and Llandinabo Lad came out on top by 5 lengths.
However it was Minella Drama first run under rules - and he is 5lb better off at the weights tomorrow.
On the book, there should be little between the pair.
On official ratings, Nada to Prada also has a similar chance.
She was a good winner of a mares only race over the course, last month.
That race was run on heavy ground - and as it was also over half a mile further, she should have no problem staying tomorrows trip.
The question is whether she will be strong enough against the geldings…
Faivoir has a chance on official ratings - though I’ll be a little surprised if he proves quite good enough.
In fact, Anythingforlove looks a more interesting runner.
She could be unbeaten in 5 runs under rules, if it weren’t for an unfortunate incident with her stirrup, at Uttoxeter in November.
She has been running in relatively modest races, so tomorrow will represent a step up in class.
However, it’s hard to accurately asses her form, so there is a chance she will be up to the task.
2:40
Royal Pagaille was hugely impressive when winning at Kempton over Christmas.
However he went up a massive 16lb for that win - and couldn’t face a more different test tomorrow.
Kempton is a right handed track - and the ground that day was on the soft side of good; Haydock is a left handed track - and the ground tomorrow will be heavy, at best !
In the circumstances - and at the likely odds - he has to be opposed.
Sam Brown is the obvious one to take him on with.
He will be making his handicap debut - but has looked a quality horse, in novice/intermediate races.
In fairness, an opening mark of 152 means the assessor hasn’t exactly missed him - but he could still prove to be better than a handicapper.
He must have very soft ground - and has won previously at Haydock.
Whilst a first time tongue tie - and the booking of crack amateur Ben Godfrey, certainly suggest intent.
With only 3 of the runners in the handicap proper, the short list, is quite short !
Sams Adventure is the final one of major interest, following his course and distance win last time, in the Tommy Whittle chase.
He was only raised 6lb for that win - which certainly looks fair. However, he lacks the potential of the 2 markets leaders.
It strikes me that he’s a very good bet to place - but not such a good bet to win…
Smooth Stepper, is the most interesting of the outsiders.
He won the Grand National trial over tomorrows course in February - and certainly won’t lack for stamina.
However, he’s now 12 - and will be competing off a 4lb higher mark tomorrow.
He’s only likely to win, if the market leaders under perform.
3:15
Former Champion hurdler, Buveur Dair, returns to the track in this race, after 15 months on the sidelines.
He last ran in the 2019 Fighting Fifth hurdle at Newcastle - but sustained a nasty foot injury.
How much of his old ability remains, is anyones guess.
He’s now 10 - and whilst age shouldn’t be a major issue - when coupled with an injury, it must unlikely that he’s as good as he once was.
In fairness, he won’t have to be, if he is to win this.
He receives weight from both of his rivals - with Ballyandy having to concede him 6lb.
Ballyandy is rated 157 - and is quite capable of running to that mark.
However, even if he does, then Buveur Dair will only have to run to a mark of just over 150, in order to win…
He really should be capable of that (at his prime, he was rated 172) - even if heavy ground on his comeback, is hardly ideal.
Navajo Pass has even more to find on official ratings.
He’s only rated 149 - yet has to conceded 3lb to Buveur Dair…
All this said, the race is not really about pounds and lengths.
Fitness and an ability to handle conditions will be the main factors - and Ballyandy scores a maximum on both counts.
Tactics could also be key - and there’s a chance that Navajo Pass could steal the race from the front…
Clearly, this can’t be a betting race, because there is just too much guesswork involved.
It will still be very interesting to see how it works out - with it possible to make a case (of sorts) for all 3 runners…
Taunton
2:10
There’s just one race from Taunton, being covered on terrestrial TV - and it looks to be at the mercy of Yala Enki.
He was a comfortable winner of the corresponding contest 12 months ago - and it’s quite likely that he will follow up tomorrow.
On official ratings, he is at least 9lb clear of all of his rivals, apart from Al Roc - and as that one is making his UK debut, the assessor has had to guess at his mark.
If the Cap fits should be the biggest danger to Yala Enki.
He is only a novice - but was a grade 1 winning hurdler who was rated 166 at his prime.
He’s not looked a natural over fences - but takes a big step up in trip tomorrow and that could result in him posting an improved effort.
That said, there’s also a chance that hesitant jumping will cost him, as it did in his most recent race, at Kempton.
Rock the Kasbah finished second to Yala Enki in last years race - and whilst it’s hard to see him reversing the form, I would still expect him to run well.
However, the betting may well advise on his chance, as he will be having his first run since last years race.
Ultimately, this appears Yala Enkis race to lose.
The biggest worry is the fact that it’s only 2 weeks since he endured a seriously hard race, when finishing third in the Welsh National. He will need to have a strong constitution to bounce back from that - but I suspect he will be up to the job.
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