Todays Suggested bets
Matrix bets
Ascot
1:50
Arrivederci 5 units win 15/2
Paddys Motorbike 3 units win 11/2
Janika 2 units win 11/2
2:25
Enqarde 5 units win 9/2
Flintham 2 units win 25/1
Haydock
2:40
Crievehill 2 units win 14/1
Best bets
Ascot
1:50
Arrivederci 0.5pt win 15/2
2:25
Enqarde 0.5pt win 9/2
I had quite high hopes for today, when the final declarations
were released on Thursday - but things haven’t worked out as I
wished…
Too many of the races are uncompetitive.
I could look to take on strong favourites, such as Yala Enki, Buveur Dair or Rokasana, but I’d be guessing/hoping.
By contrast, most of the races I feel I should to get involved with, are too competitive - bearing in mind the uncertainty concerning the state of the ground.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up suggesting far less bets than I expected.
I feel it’s the right thing to do: the last few weeks have been very quiet - but that’s just the way it is, forcing things rarely helps…
Anyway, they are my general reasons for the limited suggestions - here’s my more detailed thinking, on a race by race basis…
Ascot
Roksana should win the 1:15 - but she’s not a betting proposition at 4/7 in a race which could get tactical.
Magic of Light is the only realistic alternative - but I don’t she’s worth a risk at 7/2.
The 1:50 is a bit of a minefield, but I think Arrivederci is worth a small risk.
Stepping back up in trip, it can be argued that he is the form choice - whilst the support he received in a strong race last time, suggests he is considered well handicapped.
Dangers abound, with a host of unexposed horses in opposition.
This is where the Matrix should help, as I can cover a few of them, just in case.
However, the 2 I like most - Paddy Motorbike and Janika - have both been well backed.
I might have suggested the former as a Best bet - but his price has halved from yesterday.
That said, I still think they are both worth having on side - but mainly to cover stakes on Arrivederci.
Enqarde is my main hope of the day, in the 2:25.
He opened at 9/1 yesterday - and I was optimistic that he might have gone under the radar.
However, he’s been very well backed and the 9/2 this morning, is a border line price.
I do think he’s got a good chance, as he’s got scope for improvement and is running against mainly exposed types - however, he is no certainty !
I ignored Flintham when I was writing the preview - as he’s been off the course for 3 years.
However, he is ridiculously well handicapped, if retaining any of his old ability.
He’s the right sort to be covering, via the Matrix…
I like Good Boy Bobby most in the 3:00 - but he’s not bomb proof and faces a number of dangerous opponents.
I’d be prepared to support him at a price (6/1+) - but not at 9/2.
It’s a similar story with Espoir de Guye. He could be of interest - but I do have some worries about him and 6/1 is too short (I’d want 8/1)
If either Waiting Patiently or Defi du Seuil weren’t running in the 3:35, I’d be happy to side with the other one.
Certainly, I wouldn’t take much persuading to oppose Politologue - but I’d struggle to choose between the 2 main options.
I’d have a slight preference for Waiting Patiently - but I can’t see much in his price (11/4).
That’s in part, because I couldn’t completely dismiss the next 3 in the betting.
On balance therefore, it has to be a watching race…
Haydock
I can only imagine what the ground will be like at Haydock.
The meeting was nearly lost to rain on Thursday - but since then, frost covers have been in place !
I really don’t know how that will work out: the ground could be desperate - or it could be better than expected.
It would be hard to get heavily involved, without first watching a race or two…
Nada to Prada is the one of most interest in the 1:30, at around 11/2.
However, there is too much guesswork required (and not just with regard to the going).
I had earmarked Sam Brown as a bet in the 2:40 - though his price had contracted to the point where I might have decided against.
However, he was withdrawn this morning (due to stiffness) - so I needed to re-look at the race.
I think Royal Pagaille is too short at 6/4 - the issue is finding one to oppose him with.
On decent ground I’d be keen on Crievehill - but he doesn’t want it too soft.
I therefore don’t feel I can make him a Best bet - though I am prepared to take a small risk with the Matrix.
I should have a stronger view on his chance this afternoon, and I’ll express it on the Live thread…
I could have taken a chance and opposed Buveur Dair in the 3:15 - but it would have been complete guesswork.
The fact is, if he’s anywhere near his best - and provided he handles the conditions - he wins.
If he’s not, then Ballyandy should win - though Navajo Pass is capable of causing a surprise, should he happen to get the run of the race.
How you price up all of that, is beyond me !
Taunton
Again, with a straight bat, Yala Enki wins the 2:05.
However, there is a chance he could still be feeling a tough race at Chepstow, just 2 weeks ago.
If that’s the case, then If the Cap Fits should take advantage - provided his jumping holds up…
Again, I’ve no idea how you can price up such imponderables - so the race has to be swerved, from a betting perspective.
Too many of the races are uncompetitive.
I could look to take on strong favourites, such as Yala Enki, Buveur Dair or Rokasana, but I’d be guessing/hoping.
By contrast, most of the races I feel I should to get involved with, are too competitive - bearing in mind the uncertainty concerning the state of the ground.
As a consequence, I’ve ended up suggesting far less bets than I expected.
I feel it’s the right thing to do: the last few weeks have been very quiet - but that’s just the way it is, forcing things rarely helps…
Anyway, they are my general reasons for the limited suggestions - here’s my more detailed thinking, on a race by race basis…
Ascot
Roksana should win the 1:15 - but she’s not a betting proposition at 4/7 in a race which could get tactical.
Magic of Light is the only realistic alternative - but I don’t she’s worth a risk at 7/2.
The 1:50 is a bit of a minefield, but I think Arrivederci is worth a small risk.
Stepping back up in trip, it can be argued that he is the form choice - whilst the support he received in a strong race last time, suggests he is considered well handicapped.
Dangers abound, with a host of unexposed horses in opposition.
This is where the Matrix should help, as I can cover a few of them, just in case.
However, the 2 I like most - Paddy Motorbike and Janika - have both been well backed.
I might have suggested the former as a Best bet - but his price has halved from yesterday.
That said, I still think they are both worth having on side - but mainly to cover stakes on Arrivederci.
Enqarde is my main hope of the day, in the 2:25.
He opened at 9/1 yesterday - and I was optimistic that he might have gone under the radar.
However, he’s been very well backed and the 9/2 this morning, is a border line price.
I do think he’s got a good chance, as he’s got scope for improvement and is running against mainly exposed types - however, he is no certainty !
I ignored Flintham when I was writing the preview - as he’s been off the course for 3 years.
However, he is ridiculously well handicapped, if retaining any of his old ability.
He’s the right sort to be covering, via the Matrix…
I like Good Boy Bobby most in the 3:00 - but he’s not bomb proof and faces a number of dangerous opponents.
I’d be prepared to support him at a price (6/1+) - but not at 9/2.
It’s a similar story with Espoir de Guye. He could be of interest - but I do have some worries about him and 6/1 is too short (I’d want 8/1)
If either Waiting Patiently or Defi du Seuil weren’t running in the 3:35, I’d be happy to side with the other one.
Certainly, I wouldn’t take much persuading to oppose Politologue - but I’d struggle to choose between the 2 main options.
I’d have a slight preference for Waiting Patiently - but I can’t see much in his price (11/4).
That’s in part, because I couldn’t completely dismiss the next 3 in the betting.
On balance therefore, it has to be a watching race…
Haydock
I can only imagine what the ground will be like at Haydock.
The meeting was nearly lost to rain on Thursday - but since then, frost covers have been in place !
I really don’t know how that will work out: the ground could be desperate - or it could be better than expected.
It would be hard to get heavily involved, without first watching a race or two…
Nada to Prada is the one of most interest in the 1:30, at around 11/2.
However, there is too much guesswork required (and not just with regard to the going).
I had earmarked Sam Brown as a bet in the 2:40 - though his price had contracted to the point where I might have decided against.
However, he was withdrawn this morning (due to stiffness) - so I needed to re-look at the race.
I think Royal Pagaille is too short at 6/4 - the issue is finding one to oppose him with.
On decent ground I’d be keen on Crievehill - but he doesn’t want it too soft.
I therefore don’t feel I can make him a Best bet - though I am prepared to take a small risk with the Matrix.
I should have a stronger view on his chance this afternoon, and I’ll express it on the Live thread…
I could have taken a chance and opposed Buveur Dair in the 3:15 - but it would have been complete guesswork.
The fact is, if he’s anywhere near his best - and provided he handles the conditions - he wins.
If he’s not, then Ballyandy should win - though Navajo Pass is capable of causing a surprise, should he happen to get the run of the race.
How you price up all of that, is beyond me !
Taunton
Again, with a straight bat, Yala Enki wins the 2:05.
However, there is a chance he could still be feeling a tough race at Chepstow, just 2 weeks ago.
If that’s the case, then If the Cap Fits should take advantage - provided his jumping holds up…
Again, I’ve no idea how you can price up such imponderables - so the race has to be swerved, from a betting perspective.
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