Todays Suggested bets
There is little liquidity on the exchanges - but I don't think that will change until near the off.
20/1 is a fair price (it's available with most of the bookmakers), so if you show patience, you should achieve it (or even better !)
Matrix bets
Gowran Park
3:25
Class Conti 5 units win 20/1
Best bets
Gowran Park
3:25
Class Conti 0.5pt win 20/1
I’m not sure how much difference it made, waiting until 10:00
before issuing todays bet…
From what I could see, there was minimal money matched on BF between 9:00 and 10:00 (around £5K) - and few price changes with the bookmakers.
Also when I did issue, the price of Class Conti still crashed !
I guess things may have been worse if I’d issued earlier - though I suspect it wouldn’t have made a huge amount of difference…
As expected, I found the bookmaker over-round on the race, particularly irritating.
I would have liked to cover a couple of ‘dangers’ via the Matrix - but horses I could back at double figures on the exchanges, were 7/1 and 8/1 with the bookmakers.
There was no margin in those prices - so I didn’t suggest covering them.
I’ll mention the horses in question, in the detail below, just in case any of you want to cover on them, unofficially…
Gowran Park
In the 2:40 race, Great White Shark has been backed in to 9/4 this morning, which is closer to the price I expected.
He’s very much the one to beat - provided he’s primed to go and handles the heavy ground.
If he comes up short, for whatever reason, then it’s a hard race to call.
Diol Ker is the one that interests me most of the rest - but there’s quite a lot of guesswork required with him,…
I do think that Class Conti is over-priced in the Thystes (3:25) - even with the ridiculous over-round !
He was second in the race last year - behind a classy winner - and whilst he is 2lb higher today, I can’t see that making much difference.
He’s shown nothing in 2 runs this season - but that’s consistent with Willie Mullins 'modus operandi', when he is targeting a race (he’s happy to give them 2 runs to get fully fit).
The horse has only run 7 times for Mullins, so retains potential; whilst the fitting of first time cheek pieces is a very interesting move.
I also like the fact it was bought by Munir and Souede over the summer.
I suspect they bought it to target it at a race - and I’m hoping it is this one !
In terms of dangers, then I have covered on Brahma Bull and Ten Ten, at 10 & 12 respectively, on the exchanges.
I’ll also back Smoking Gun a at 11 - as Gigginstown have withdrawn Dounikos, to get him a run.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - and I may pick them off to small stakes, on the exchanges, if the prices get too big.
All this said, I do like Class Conti - at 20/1 he’s a very good bet.
From what I could see, there was minimal money matched on BF between 9:00 and 10:00 (around £5K) - and few price changes with the bookmakers.
Also when I did issue, the price of Class Conti still crashed !
I guess things may have been worse if I’d issued earlier - though I suspect it wouldn’t have made a huge amount of difference…
As expected, I found the bookmaker over-round on the race, particularly irritating.
I would have liked to cover a couple of ‘dangers’ via the Matrix - but horses I could back at double figures on the exchanges, were 7/1 and 8/1 with the bookmakers.
There was no margin in those prices - so I didn’t suggest covering them.
I’ll mention the horses in question, in the detail below, just in case any of you want to cover on them, unofficially…
Gowran Park
In the 2:40 race, Great White Shark has been backed in to 9/4 this morning, which is closer to the price I expected.
He’s very much the one to beat - provided he’s primed to go and handles the heavy ground.
If he comes up short, for whatever reason, then it’s a hard race to call.
Diol Ker is the one that interests me most of the rest - but there’s quite a lot of guesswork required with him,…
I do think that Class Conti is over-priced in the Thystes (3:25) - even with the ridiculous over-round !
He was second in the race last year - behind a classy winner - and whilst he is 2lb higher today, I can’t see that making much difference.
He’s shown nothing in 2 runs this season - but that’s consistent with Willie Mullins 'modus operandi', when he is targeting a race (he’s happy to give them 2 runs to get fully fit).
The horse has only run 7 times for Mullins, so retains potential; whilst the fitting of first time cheek pieces is a very interesting move.
I also like the fact it was bought by Munir and Souede over the summer.
I suspect they bought it to target it at a race - and I’m hoping it is this one !
In terms of dangers, then I have covered on Brahma Bull and Ten Ten, at 10 & 12 respectively, on the exchanges.
I’ll also back Smoking Gun a at 11 - as Gigginstown have withdrawn Dounikos, to get him a run.
Plenty of others can be given half chances - and I may pick them off to small stakes, on the exchanges, if the prices get too big.
All this said, I do like Class Conti - at 20/1 he’s a very good bet.
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