Aside from Cheltenham, Aintree & the Christmas period, there are very few big races run on a Thursday.
In fact, the Thystes chase is the only one I can think of - and certainly the only one I cover during my season.
Known as ‘The race that stops a county’, that should be a bit easier to achieve this year, as I suspect that few of the locals will be doing much regardless !
Tomorrows renewal is up to scratch: as is the main supporting event, the Galmoy hurdle.
The races on the under-card aren’t quite so inspiring - but at least there are a couple of contests in which I might be able to find a midweek bet (which is a rare event !).
That said, I still don’t expect the early markets to be strong.
If I can find any bets, then I’ll look to issue after 10:00 - however, if the markets are still fragile at that point, I’ll possibly delay.
The other thing to note is the massive over-round that the bookmakers tend to apply to Irish racing.
All of the bookmakers have now priced up the Thystes - and there is still a 40% over-round on best prices !
It’ll be no better in the morning - so please, don’t be rushing to take a price.
Most of the runners will be available at better prices on the exchanges, at some point prior to the off - many of them, at much better prices !
Gowran Park
2:20
I expected Great White Shark to be installed quite a short price favourite for this…
He was an impressive winner of the Cesarewich at Newmarket, on his most recent outing in October, when he stayed on well to justify favouritism.
Prior to that, he had won over hurdles at the Galway festival - a win which resulted in his rating being raised to 146.
That leaves him a few pounds shy of some of his opponents tomorrow - however the conditions of the race mean that he receives weight from all bar one of the runners and on adjusted ratings, he is the best treated horse in the race.
Add in top class connections - and I thought you’d be looking at nearer 2/1, than the 3/1 on offer…
In fairness, heavy ground and a 4 month absence are worries - and it is possible that the race could be used as a prep for bigger targets.
I suspect the betting will be revealing - but if he is well supported, I would expect him to win.
In terms of his rivals, then most of them can be given at least half a chance.
In addition to the favourite, Willie Mullins also saddles Bacardys, Burrow Saint and Scarpeta.
Cases can be made for all 3 - though the fact that Paul Townend rides Great White Shark, does suggest he is the main hope of the stable.
Noel Meade saddles a couple of interesting runners in the shape of Sixshooter and Diol Ker.
I expected Sixshooter to be the more fancied (I thought he would be second favourite) - however Sean Flanagan rides Diol Ker.
I read that as meaning he is the stable number one - and it’s interesting to note that he beat Monkfish over hurdles last season. He also wears first time cheek pieces tomorrow, having hurdled sloppily last time.
Again, if he’s supported in the market, then a definite case can be made…
Darasso and Kilfenora both represent JP McManus - with the former having finished second in the race last year.
I don’t think either will be quite good to win - even though they could run well.
Sams Profile is the final one worthy of mention.
He was a top class novice hurdler a couple of seasons back - but was then absent, until returning over fences this autumn.
He showed promise in a couple of novice races - but as he didn’t win either, it’s not too surprising to see connections sending him back over hurdles, thereby retaining his novice status over the bigger obstacles for next season.
It would be a big ask for him to take a race like this on his first run back over hurdles - but it’s not completely impossible…
In short, this looks a race where the favourite is likely to be very hard to beat provided he is ready to do himself justice…
Unfortunately we are only likely to know whether that’s the case, close to the off…
3:25
The Thystes has the usual make up of runners for a big field handicap in Ireland…
A third of the field are trained by Willie Mullins; a third by Gordon Elliott and a third by ‘others’ !
It’s a race that Mullins tends to do particularly well in, and he has trained the winner of 5 of the past 10 renewals.
By contrast, Elliott has only trained a single winner over the same period…
The Mullins team is headed by Acapella Bourgeois, the mount of Paul Townend.
He finished sixth in the race 12 months ago - and off a 4lb higher mark, there is no obvious reason why he should do any better tomorrow.
That said, he was let down by his jumping in last seasons race - and he does absolutely love, heavy ground (which he should get) - so he’s not easy to dismiss.
In truth, he shouldn’t be able to beat stablemate Class Conti, based on last years run.
That one finished second in the race, nearly 10 lengths in front of Acapella - and is 2lb better off at the weights,
He’s shown nothing in 2 runs this season - but may have been targeted at this race for his new owners and wears cheek pieces for the first time.
Brahma Bull is another very interesting runner for Mullins.
He’s an unexposed 10 year old, who has been running in graded company.
A rating of 151 looks quite high - but a 7 length second to Minella Indo, suggests he deserves it !
Cabaret Queen and Saturnas complete the Mullins team - and whilst neither looks to have an outstanding chance, they couldn’t be completely ruled out.
It’s a little easier to rule out a few of the Elliott contenders - and if he does train the winner, it’s likely to be in the shape of either Coko Beach or Run Wild Fred.
Both are still novices and consequently very tricky to get a proper handle on…
Of the others, then Spyglass Hill is quite interesting for Henry de Bromhead - though he does look to have been priced up on the back of his defeat of Native Milan, last February.
That one went on to win at the Cheltenham festival - though I suspect he improved, when doing that.
Discordantly is quite interesting for Jessie Harrington.
He was a good winner at Galway in October - though the 10lb rise he got for that win, does seem to have been a bit too much.
He ran quite well in the Troytown and in the Paddy Power chase - and I could see him doing the same again tomorrow, without being quite good enough to win.
I could give both Dunvegan and Ten Ten chances - however, there are doubts over their stamina.
I made Ten Ten a Best bet last time, when he ran in the Paddy Power chase, as I thought he would benefit from the step up in trip. However, that didn’t seem to be the case (he finished weakly).
Maybe he can be given a second chance, as he was very well supported for that race (sent off second fav).
Dunvegan looks more of a questionable stayer to me - though if his stamina does hold out, then he is handicapped to be in the mix.
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